Have we already blown the next world cup?

[bitts]

There wasn't enough doom and gloom on the board so thought I'd post this::

There is little time, in I'm international rugby terms, until the next world cup.

We have have a lot of players in the squad who have proven themselves to be unable to become world class and too many who have either struggled to be good international class players despite or who are unlikely to ever become good international players.

We have a game plan that has been found out and isn't working. The team also seems to becoming worse the lo get they have together.

Is there enough time to turn this round. If so, how?

[Banquo]

We have have a lot of players in the squad who have proven themselves to be unable to become world class and too many who have either struggled to be good international class players despite or who are unlikely to ever become good international players.

This is a key issue, and although there is a lot of very good talent about, we still need to find upwards of 7 world class players. Having said that, world cups have been won with average performances, albeit delivered by excellent players

[Cameo]

You lot do remember you were very close to winning a world cupin 2007 dont you? You were awful yesterday and bad v Scotland but you have a lot of very decent players

[WaspInWales]

Agree with Banquo, for all our perceived depth in some positions, we're lacking some standout world class players in the squad.

On top of that we have some rather average players that continue to get selected and we're running out of time to try some of the alternatives.

From what I've seen over the past 3-4 weeks, we may struggle to get out of the pool. However, we are a better team than we have played in this tournament. We have been found wanting in areas where teams have easily exploited but I think it's fixable, plus we have some good players to come back from injury.

It does seem we're shit out of luck when it comes to getting results though and although these things tend to even out over time, we simply have to improve the breakdown and attacking play by the world cup.

[Lizard]

I don’t think your problem is generally player quality in terms of individual skill. It’s a failure of direction and adaptation on the field.

You just need to find your Ryan Crotty.

[Galfon]

Picking Pool C has made it awkward.It's looking like we may have peaked a bit early too.

[Raggs]

I think that's a massive over reaction. Just as we weren't a million miles away from losing plenty of the games we were involved in before, we're not a million miles away from winning these ones.

Seeing some improvement in Farrell at 12 (his individual threat), is encouraging, and as long as he continues (and it seems he's trying to), will offer our other backs more room.

Lawes still doesn't fit for me. Let him fight it out at lock. Our carrying and breakdown work lack explosiveness, but this could really come down to the training regime, and if that's the case, we could easily see large improvements there just by letting the players recover fully (which would obviously happen before the RWC). Once/if that improves, then suddenly we'll see a lot more quick clean ball, which will have our backs going well, which in turn will have us on the front foot some more etc etc. Penalties from turnovers will turn into slow ball, slow ball will turn into quick ball.

Obviously it's easy to say that, and if the players are just poor, then it won't work that way, but a lot of them seem to be playing poorer than I'd expect them to for their clubs, so I do believe there is something in the training regime theory.

[Beasties]

You lot do remember you were very close to winning a world cupin 2007 dont you? You were awful yesterday and bad v Scotland but you have a lot of very decent players

Part of the 2007 cup run was down to a general lack of quality from other international teams. Mind there was nothing wrong with our breakdown work in the game v Aus in 2007. Eng haven't got close to that since.

[Scrumhead]

There aren’t many positives to take away from this 6 Nations. However, in a weird way, the biggest positive is that this has happened now while we still have time to start fixing some of the problems.

There aren’t many (if any) valid excuses for the standard of performances we’ve seen in the past few weeks, but I do think it’s clear that our players (particularly the Lions players) are massively overworked in relation to the other home nations. They look visibly tired and off the pace and while that could be Eddie beasting them in training, I think the ‘minutes played’ stats speak for themselves.

It’s a harder problem to solve than tweaking tactics and selection, but it would be ludicrous to ignore it.

[Digby]

I think that's a massive over reaction. Just as we weren't a million miles away from losing plenty of the games we were involved in before, we're not a million miles away from winning these ones.

Seeing some improvement in Farrell at 12 (his individual threat), is encouraging, and as long as he continues (and it seems he's trying to), will offer our other backs more room.

Lawes still doesn't fit for me. Let him fight it out at lock. Our carrying and breakdown work lack explosiveness, but this could really come down to the training regime, and if that's the case, we could easily see large improvements there just by letting the players recover fully (which would obviously happen before the RWC). Once/if that improves, then suddenly we'll see a lot more quick clean ball, which will have our backs going well, which in turn will have us on the front foot some more etc etc. Penalties from turnovers will turn into slow ball, slow ball will turn into quick ball.

Obviously it's easy to say that, and if the players are just poor, then it won't work that way, but a lot of them seem to be playing poorer than I'd expect them to for their clubs, so I do believe there is something in the training regime theory.

I'd still start by doing something different in selection and gameplan to Eddie, but the above all seems quite reasonable. Really it comes down to did Eddie mean it when he said the players were going to be overtrained, or is it just stuff Eddie says.

We've got the world class players though in Mako, Launch, Itoje, Billy, Watson, Daly, and they're being pushed close by Ford, Farrell, and JJ, and we might have Manu back at some point

[p/d]

I'm not sure this is an over reaction, simply because at no time during Jones's tenure have we looked capable of winning the next WC. The loss to Scotland was to be expected however the manner of defeat v France was as good an indicator to show a team coached by the arrogant Jones' lacks the skill and mental strength to overcome any small setback.

[Banquo]

I think that's a massive over reaction. Just as we weren't a million miles away from losing plenty of the games we were involved in before, we're not a million miles away from winning these ones.

Seeing some improvement in Farrell at 12 (his individual threat), is encouraging, and as long as he continues (and it seems he's trying to), will offer our other backs more room.

Lawes still doesn't fit for me. Let him fight it out at lock. Our carrying and breakdown work lack explosiveness, but this could really come down to the training regime, and if that's the case, we could easily see large improvements there just by letting the players recover fully (which would obviously happen before the RWC). Once/if that improves, then suddenly we'll see a lot more quick clean ball, which will have our backs going well, which in turn will have us on the front foot some more etc etc. Penalties from turnovers will turn into slow ball, slow ball will turn into quick ball.

Obviously it's easy to say that, and if the players are just poor, then it won't work that way, but a lot of them seem to be playing poorer than I'd expect them to for their clubs, so I do believe there is something in the training regime theory.

I'd still start by doing something different in selection and gameplan to Eddie, but the above all seems quite reasonable. Really it comes down to did Eddie mean it when he said the players were going to be overtrained, or is it just stuff Eddie says.

We've got the world class players though in Mako, Launch, Itoje, Billy, Watson, Daly, and they're being pushed close by Ford, Farrell, and JJ, and we might have Manu back at some point

I don't accept some of those are world class tbh, or in some cases close, but even then, we are some way short of what you normally need to win a world cup, especially with 8 men benches. And even then, you'd think you'd need a 2,7, 9 and 12.

I'd also disagree with Liz on skill; our breakdown skills have shown to be short of the mark, and don't start on half back play and passing generally. And if decision making is a skill, and it is, ....

I do think we can do far better tactically, and make some significant improvement in selection.....and this has been true for a long time; we have been very wide of these marks for a long time. Eddie did a great job on instilling a will to win, and building a bit of an aura; looks to have gone a bit off now, for a few reasons.

[padprop]

Australia won the rugby championship in 2011 and 2015, both the years that NZ won the world cup, so I wouldn't say that losing a couple games rules you out.

I for one don't really believe that treating international rugby as four year cycles is the way to go, as previous world cups have shown it just culminates in holding onto players purely because they have a large amount of caps and not picking any emerging players if they emerge within a year before the world cup. Obviously you have to know your best team going into a world cup, but by not picking on form and picking on reputation and caps you make the job even more difficult as you are just guessing if the player will be effective or not.

[Digby]

I don't know which if Mako, Launch, Itoje, Billy, Watson and Daly aren't world class, Watson isn't that as a fullback, but they're all top class for me. I don't think we've blown the WC yet, but then I never thought we looked that good for it anyway. What might have gone up in smoke and will have long term consequences for us if so is Eddie's chance of running the next jamboree tour. Many new bosses wouldn't come in to work under Eddie, but had Eddie been sidelined with the jamboree it'd have made that process/handover easier

[padprop]

I don't know which if Mako, Launch, Itoje, Billy, Watson and Daly aren't world class, Watson isn't that as a fullback, but they're all top class for me. I don't think we've blown the WC yet, but then I never thought we looked that good for it anyway. What might have gone up in smoke and will have long term consequences for us if so is Eddie's chance of running the next jamboree tour. Many new bosses wouldn't come in to work under Eddie, but had Eddie been sidelined with the jamboree it'd have made that process/handover easier

Are you saying world class as in they would get in the world XV or they are the top 2/3 in position?

No doubt that Mako has the most complete skillset of any prop on the planet but he is not a destructive scrummager, and has never shown to be one.

Launchbury is definitely in the top 4 locks in the world for me, but may be hard to get passed the kiwis

Billy yes, but made of glass.

I would struggle to find anyone to describe Itoje as being world class this season, but has shown previous examples.

Much like Launch, Daly and Watson are competing with the Kiwis and the emergence of Stockdale. I'm sure Tuisova and Raka could make a case aswell.

[Banquo]

I don't know which if Mako, Launch, Itoje, Billy, Watson and Daly aren't world class, Watson isn't that as a fullback, but they're all top class for me. I don't think we've blown the WC yet, but then I never thought we looked that good for it anyway. What might have gone up in smoke and will have long term consequences for us if so is Eddie's chance of running the next jamboree tour. Many new bosses wouldn't come in to work under Eddie, but had Eddie been sidelined with the jamboree it'd have made that process/handover easier

Top class and world class mean different things to me; I agree they are all good international players. Not all would make my world XV, and some not even the 23. They would all be starting in my England XV, but thats not the point; even then, you need to find another gem in every unit of the team, bar lock (and they could improve carrying and breakdown work)....a point I've drearily made every tenth post. There's no doubt these guys aren't being used to the best of their abilities or strengths.

[Banquo]

I don't know which if Mako, Launch, Itoje, Billy, Watson and Daly aren't world class, Watson isn't that as a fullback, but they're all top class for me. I don't think we've blown the WC yet, but then I never thought we looked that good for it anyway. What might have gone up in smoke and will have long term consequences for us if so is Eddie's chance of running the next jamboree tour. Many new bosses wouldn't come in to work under Eddie, but had Eddie been sidelined with the jamboree it'd have made that process/handover easier

Are you saying world class as in they would get in the world XV or they are the top 2/3 in position?

No doubt that Mako has the most complete skillset of any prop on the planet but he is not a destructive scrummager, and has never shown to be one.

Launchbury is definitely in the top 4 locks in the world for me, but may be hard to get passed the kiwis

Billy yes, but made of glass.

I would struggle to find anyone to describe Itoje as being world class this season, but has shown previous examples.

Much like Launch, Daly and Watson are competing with the Kiwis and the emergence of Stockdale. I'm sure Tuisova and Raka could make a case aswell.

aye

[Timbo]

Honestly, we could be utter shite for the next 18 months, click in one of the opening group games and still win the thing. You don’t need x amount of world class players (although I think the Lions tour proved beyond doubt that we have more than a few tbh), you just need a couple of world class games.

This season our top players look physically and emotionally drained.

If the idea is that we, or anyone else, has to match NZ man for man to win a World Cup then we should all just forget it now. It’s not happening for any team.

[Banquo]

Honestly, we could be utter shite for the next 18 months, click in one of the opening group games and still win the thing. You don’t need x amount of world class players (although I think the Lions tour proved beyond doubt that we have more than a few tbh), you just need a couple of world class games.

This season our top players look physically and emotionally drained.

If the idea is that we, or anyone else, has to match NZ man for man to win a World Cup then we should all just forget it now. It’s not happening for any team.

as I said, you can win a world cup playing very poorly. You don't half improve your chances by having a lot of world class players, in a no sh^t sherlock phrase ::)

Which players were proved 'beyond doubt' as world class, out of interest?

[morepork]

England has more acute issues to deal with:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cornwall-43363435

[Beasties]

Honestly, we could be utter shite for the next 18 months, click in one of the opening group games and still win the thing. You don’t need x amount of world class players (although I think the Lions tour proved beyond doubt that we have more than a few tbh), you just need a couple of world class games.

This season our top players look physically and emotionally drained.

If the idea is that we, or anyone else, has to match NZ man for man to win a World Cup then we should all just forget it now. It’s not happening for any team.

Yup. We almost won it in 2007 and how many of that team were world class?

[Digby]

If being world class means a player who'd be selected in a World XV there aren't many obvious picks, after Aaron Smith there mayn't be any

[Lizard]

Yep. 3 losses since RWC2015. England is toast.

That’s the fewest losses of any 6N/RC team along with NZ but it has had a draw as well.

Your schedule is almost ideal. Tonga and USA up first as a warm-up. Tonga will knock any complacency out of you, and USA (4 days later) will allow you to recover from that. Then you’ve got the Pumas, who you should be able to account for especially if they beat France (again) in their opening match and know they can drop one and still make the QFs. Then you finish with France, which will be a good step up into the playoffs. And of course you only need to win one of those last two. Your QF (chickens duly counted) will be against Aussie or Wales, against whom you are on a joint 9 match winning streak (both last beat you at RWC2015, as it happens). So a semi spot is very achievable and once you’re there anything could happen. A semi opponent could be any of Scotland, Ireland, SA or NZ.

[Puja]

Yep. 3 losses since RWC2015. England is toast.

The issue is that we've had an awful lot of luck in those wins. Wales last year turned on one crap kick, Australia at Twickenham we were getting beaten except for the TMO going twice against Australia and some very fortuitous tries of our own, Australia the year before that we got that dodgy Yarde try - how many times have we heard, "We didn't play well, but we pulled out the victory which is the mark of a champion team"? That record could be drastically different with a slightly different rub of the green.

The issue is that Eddie appears to be shutting up shop. He's decided that he hates the AP, domestic form is irrelevant, English players don't have any skills so the best he can do is beast them to the highest level of fitness possible and hope to outwork and outgrind people. No ambition, no risk-taking, no bringing in new faces - he's decided that what he's seen is the best we can get so let's pull up the drawbridge now. If that's the case, then we are toast. If our best options are Lawes or Haskell at 6, Brown at 15, Te'o at 13 and Hartley's still the epitome of an English hooker, then we don't stand an earthly because those options are rank average and getting worse every year.

Puja

[Spiffy]

If being world class means a player who'd be selected in a World XV there aren't many obvious picks, after Aaron Smith there mayn't be any

Not sure that Aaron Smith would be an obvious pick either. On the form of the past two seasons (and their personal head-to-heads), Ireland's Conor Murray looks at least as good a SH.
I'd say that Retallick (lock) and B.Barrett (FH) would be obvious picks (and so would Ben Smith if he were not having a sabbatical.) Maybe Australia's Hooper at 7 too.