Super Rugby

[rowan]

Chiefs blitzing Landers in Suva. 28-0 after 28 mins. Good news for Canes.

Another Chiefs try and Whitelock in the bin. 35-0 approaching HT. Otago getting smashed.

HT 42-0

While this eases the pressure on the Canes with the Landers currently just 5 points behind them (and the Chiefs 8), this could well mean the Canes final match with the Chiefs will determine who gets to play at home in the quarters and who must travel - & right now that looks ominous.

42-12 early2nd 1/2. Landers on the comeback?

They even had another try disallowed. But after that explosive beginning to the 2nd half their momentum seems to have stalled a little...

FT 45-22 great win for the Chiefs, obviously eased off the gas pedal in the 2nd half

[rowan]

Astonishing loss for the Canes in Canberra, their third in as many games, having previous won 10-in-a-row and been tied at the top of the table with the Saders, who they beat fairly comfortably at home earlier in the competition. Not sure I can recall the wheels coming off a team in quite such spectacular fashion. Fortunately they'd done enough to secure a playoff spot, and their next match - at home to the Blues - provides an excellent opportunity to get back into winning form before that crucial final round encounter with the Chiefs.

Another surprise in Singers where the Bulls slender playoff hopes were effectively ended with a loss to the Sunwolves.

[rowan]

Sharks win at home over the Lions put huge pressure on the Jaguares to overcome the Stormers in BA tonight. Home team wins, they ought to go through to the playoffs. Stormers win and it's a dogfight between several teams for the last couple of places.

[rowan]

Jags with the 15-7 lead approaching halftime. Hope they can give me something to cheer about this weekend!

Perfect start to the second half for the home-team as they grab their third try. Does anyone else suspect the Argies were holding back during the Summer tours?

Interesting dilemma. You're 11 points ahead with time up on the clock and about to feed a scrum, but so far you've only scored 3 tries. Do you kick for touch or go in search of the bonus point ?

The Jags seem to have settled for the safe option. 25-14. Argentinean rugby is alive and well, and the Jags should make the playoffs from here, although they now finish with a tough 2-game tour of SA.

[rowan]

So the Stormers and Bulls are out of contention for the playoffs after today's results, but the Sharks & Brumbies kept their chances alive. jags probably need one more win from their final two games to clinch a playoffs spot for the first time, while the Rebels will probably need two wins.

1. Crusaders 14 12 0 2 443:256 54

2. Lions 15 8 0 7 481:423 41

3. Waratahs 14 8 1 5 449:380 39

4. Hurricanes 14 10 0 4 408:291 45

5. Chiefs 14 9 0 5 411:325 41

6. Highlanders 14 9 0 5 372:363 40

7. Jaguares 14 9 0 5 365:355 38

8. Rebels 14 7 0 7 380:381 35

9. Sharks 14 6 1 7 401:405 32

10. Brumbies 14 6 0 8 334:367 29

11. Bulls 14 5 0 9 386:430 25

12. Stormers 15 5 0 10 363:407 25

13. Blues 14 4 0 10 337:413 22

14. Reds 14 4 0 10 304:451 19

15. Sunwolves 14 3 0 11 352:539 14

[Lizard]

I think the Bulls are technically still in the running, aren't they? Two bonus point wins (v Jags, then away to Lions) would put them on 35 points. This would leave them tied with the Rebels if that team gets no return on the road against the Reds and the Highlanders.

A tie would be broken as follows:
1. Most wins: the above would leave them both with 7 wins.
2. Highest aggregate PD: Bulls are on -44, Rebels on -1. It would not be out the question for the Bulls to win twice by an average of 11 points and the Rebels to lose twice by the same average margin, putting the Bulls 1 point ahead.
3. Most tries scored : Both are on 51
4. Highest aggregate tries scored/conceded difference: Rebels on 1, Bulls on -4.
5. Coin toss.

[rowan]

Technically, yes. They'd need: 1/ maximum points from both their remaining games; 2/ the Rebels to receive no points whatsoever in either of theirs; and 3/ for the Sharks to lose both their remaining games; and 4/ to wind up with a superior for and against record to the Rebels. So they probably have a better chance of the Martians arriving and zapping one of the teams out of existence with their laser guns...

[Lizard]

Hence “technically”!

[rowan]

Watch out for those Martians!!

[rowan]

Indeed . . .

Capital clash

What has happened to the Hurricanes attack? After tearing up the competition in the early rounds, the Hurricanes have failed to score more than 14 points in their last three games. With a home playoff spot on the line, the Chris Boyd-coached side will need to find their attacking mojo against the Blues in Wellington on Saturday night. Provided captain Brad Shields can overcome an illness, he will be back for his 100th Super Rugby game and should provide the inspiration the Hurricanes need to get their season back on track.

http://www.superrugby.co.nz/News/32641/ ... forward-to

[rowan]

South Island derby just kicked off. As a Canes supporter, have to hope Saders win, because we won't catch them for the top spot, but we do need to stay ahead of Otago (& the Chiefs) to get a home quarter.

& it's the 8-time champions with the early try . . .

HT 25-17 Saders.

32-22 heading into the final 1/4

FT 45-22. Bit of a spanking. Canterbury looking ominous - as usual.

[rowan]

Huge and somewhat unexpected blow to the Rebels' playoff prospects. They basically only had to win one of their remaining 2 games to secure a spot for (I believe) the first time, and thereby vindicate the ARU's decision to keep them on ahead of the Force. & obviously the lowly Reds was the one they would have been targetting. But now they're probably going to have to beat the Highlanders in Dunedin to make it, and that seems unlikely. Meanwhile, the hands the Brumbies a lifeline. It's great news for the Sharks, who have a couple of winnable fixtures ahead, and the Brumbies - who have two difficult games but now have destiny back in their own hands. It also takes a lot of pressure off the Jags, who should reach the playoffs for the first time in their history.

[morepork]

Kia ora Richie Mo'unga.

[rowan]

The demise of the Rebels and Brumbies this weekend opens up a huge opportunity for the Sharks to take the last slot in the playoffs, as they have two quite winnable encounters in front of them. & the pressure is right off the Jags, although they'll probably want to overcome the lowly Bulls today to make sure of their berth in the quarters. The Chiefs' failure to pick up a bonus point today may prove crucial. If the Canes can take maximum points against the battling Blues, they could well hold onto their top 4 placing (and a home quarter) even with a loss to the Chiefs next week. But on recent form a Canes' win today is far from a foregone conclusion - even at home.

[rowan]

Great start for the Canes. Ngani with 2 tries and Julian with 1 for a 19-3 lead approaching HT. Need to keep this up in the 2nd half and grab the bonus point as well. But even as I write that they let in a try just before the break and suddenly the Blues are back in it. 21-10.

[rowan]

Well done, lads. That should see the Canes with a home playoffs provided they don't get absolutely slaughtered next week.

[rowan]

Tahs running up a cricket score against the Poodles. 77-25 !! That should secure 3rd place and a home quarter with their nearest rivals both losing this weekend.

[rowan]

Bulls lead the Jags 21-19 at HT. Jags have 3 tries. Even a loss with a bonus point or two would likely see the South Americans into the playoffs after results earlier this weekend. But a win would confirm it beyond doubt.

36-26 to the Bulls heading into the final 1/4, but the Jags have their 4th try, which is something.

I thought there was a bonus point for 4 tries but apparently there isn't. Bulls lead Jags 43-29 into the last 10.

43-34 Bulls, and I believe the visitors missed a conversion which would have given them that important bonus point

[rowan]

Another shock, with the Stormers beating the Sharks 27-16, despite the fact they had nothing to play for and the visitors everything. This confirms that the Jaguares are through to the playoffs, regardless the result of their visit to Durban in next week's final round of regular season. The Sharks must now win that encounter and hope the Rebels lose to the Highlanders in Dunedin to claim the final playoffs berth. If the Rebels win that one (or the Sharks lose), they'll hang onto 8th spot. The Brumbies' bonus point for losing to the Chiefs by less than 8 ended the Bulls' chances, but the Canberra outfit retain a very remote chance of a playoffs berth if they win away to the in-form Tahs next week and both the Sharks and Rebels lose. Realistically I think we're going to see the Sharks snatch 8th place with a home win over the Jags, while the Rebels do down to Otago. The Canes appear to have clinched the 4th home quarter-final spot with today's win, barring a massive hammering in the Waikato next week. I believe the Chiefs would have to win by more than 44 points.

Likely quarter finals:

Saders host Sharks
Tahs host Jags
Lions host Otago
Canes host Chiefs

Table with one round remaining (Stormers' have played all their games):

1. Crusaders 15 13 0 2 488:278 58

2. Waratahs 15 9 1 5 526:405 44

3. Lions 15 8 0 7 481:423 41

4. Hurricanes 15 11 0 4 450:315 50

5. Chiefs 15 10 0 5 435:344 45

6. Highlanders 15 9 0 6 394:408 40

7. Jaguares 15 9 0 6 399:398 38

8. Rebels 15 7 0 8 403:418 35


9. Sharks 15 6 1 8 417:432 32

10. Brumbies 15 6 0 9 353:391 30


11. Stormers 16 6 0 10 390:423 29

12. Bulls 15 6 0 9 429:464 29

13. Reds 15 5 0 10 341:474 23

14. Blues 15 4 0 11 361:455 22

15. Sunwolves 15 3 0 12 377:616 14

[rowan]

My number 1 team has pretty much sewn up a home quarter and my number 2 has reached the playoffs for the first time. Gotta be happy with that

[morepork]

Definitely worthy of another post on the same subject. Definitely.

[cashead]

Hell, make a thread about it that should've been closed a long fucking time ago too.

[rowan]

Saders host Sharks
Tahs host Jags
Lions host Otago
Canes host Chiefs


Saders and Tahs should win comfortably on current form, Landers at Jo'burg could go either way, and the same is obviously true of the Chiefs in Wellington. This coming weekend's regular season fixture between the latter two teams will obviously give us more insight.

[rowan]

The international rugby news web-sites I've looked at have again been slow on the uptake here. Most glaringly, the Jaguares' achievement in reaching the playoffs for the first time appears to have slipped under the radar completely. I have the Jaguares' official site linked to my Facebook page and they have been raving about this - and rightly so. Neither have the quarterfinal permutations received a thorough analysis; something you would expect after the penultimate round of regular season. That's poor journalism. But not surprising, given they failed to factor in games in hand during much of the season, thus presenting distorted views of the overall standings.

[cashead]