Statistic of the Day

[rowan]

I realize your comment was tongue-in-cheek, but it is an interesting comparison. When I've got more time I'll try to dig up the post I did on this after researching all the data. I think the Rugby World Cup will grow, just not at remotely the rate football's has - and that certainly hasn't been the case so far. Most likely 8 tournaments down the road NZ will have won at least half a dozen, South Africa and Australia a couple more each, England another one or two, and France might have even won one. If there is a new semi-finalist during that time, Ireland is the obvious candidate (they'll probably do it next year), though Italy or the US may have reached that stage by the 2050s or 60s. The only way that might change is if World Rugby itself went through some kind of democratic revolution, such as that FIFA underwent after Joao Havelange took over, providing every single member of the association with one vote. The Rugby Championship and 6 Nations would have to go, as would the tier system and exclusive scheduling, and many other things would need to change too.

[Stom]

Which country could put together the best XV from RWC2015 players who have since retired from test rugby?

I've had a go at NZ. There's only 15 players eligible but a good spread of positions, with the exception being a complete lack of locks. So I've gone for overwhelming power with he two tallest of the four props available moving to the second row. Vito would have to come off his wing to jump in the line-out, mind. The loose-forwards are fairly formidable. TKB will do a job behind that massive pack, with the Carter/Nonu/Smith axis one of the best inside back trios of all time. No specialist wingers means Fekitoa has to give it another go (I think he came on for Naholo v Georgia so has some experience). The only spot to fit Vito in is on the other wing. Slade will do at fullback, he had a run there v Namibia so isn't a stranger to the position.

1. T. Woodcock
2. K. Mealamu
3. C. Faumuina
4. W. Crockett
5. B. Franks
6. J. Kaino
7. R. McCaw
8. L. Messam
9. T. Kerr-Barlow
10. D. Carter
11. M. Fekitoa
12. M. Nonu
13. C. Smith
14. V. Vito
15. C. Slade

This is a great one! England have (drumroll)

1-4 Geoff Parling
5-8 Nick Easter
9-15 Sam Burgess

[Lizard]

Do your players not all fuck off to France or Japan the instant their powers start to wane?

[Lizard]

I guess the nearest moral equivalent would be RWC2015 players not selected in the past 12 months (I won't know who's injured though)

So you could run with:
1. Brookes
2. Webber
3. Wilson
4. Parling
5. Easter
6. T Youngs
7. Wood
8. Morgan
10. Goode
12. Burgess
13. Barritt

Morgan and Goode will need to split scrum half duties, and you'll need to revert to a traditional, 10-man game plan.

[Stom]

Do your players not all fuck off to France or Japan the instant their powers start to wane?

Two major reasons we failed so badly between 2004 and 2012 were hanging onto the "golden generation" too long, and the lack of quality young players coming off the conveyor belt.

They all retired en-masse, leaving Lancaster with a clean slate and the arrival of the first lot of post JRWC players. There are very few current England players who have not played at a JRWC. A few who slipped through the cracks or came through a different route are appearing now (Sam Simmonds, Francis, Shields, Hill, Williams, Solomona) but the bulk of the squad are from players who have played in JRWC finals.

[Lizard]

Of the NZ u20 XV that started and won the 2011 JRWC, 13 have now become test players:
6 are current All Blacks
4 are former All Blacks, 3 of whom are playing for foreign clubs.
3 are playing for other test sides (Tonga, Wales, England)
2 play domestically in NZ

[Lizard]

Current All Blacks without NZ U20/21 representation, by reason

Too good:
Reiko Ioane: All Black Sevens player at 18 and full All Black at 19

Rugby league:
Ngani Laumape: debuted for the Warriors in the NRL at age 20
Nehe Milner-Skudder: played U20 rugby league in Australia
SBW: youngest player to ever sign with an NRL club

Other sports:
Joe Moody: Junior league rep and wrestled at international level until he was 21. Didn't get a Super Rugby contract until he was 23.

Late developers:
Tim Perry (uncapped but named in squad): played NZ Schools and Canterbury U19 but didn't make the senior Mid Canterbury side until 21 or 22.
Luke Romano: didn't make the Canterbury team until he was about 23, also had a previous focus on cricket.
Liam Squire: Signed with Tasman aged 20
Matt Todd: debuted for Canterbury age 21
Karl Tu'inukuafe: unfit fat bloke until he was 21 or so.

Other countries:
Shannon Frizzell: U20 for Tonga
Vaia Fifita: Left Tonga after paying Tonga Schools

Jordan Taufua can claim the rare distinction of playing U20s for 2 nations, first Samoa (eligible by ancestry) and then NZ (eligible by birth)

[Lizard]

NZ U20 players capped for other countries

This is probably far from comprehensive. Everyone should be grateful NZ never made the dick move of naming the U20s as our "next senior" team.

England
Brad Shields
Jason Woodward (uncapped but named in squad)
Martin Johnson (NZ U21)

Samoa
Christopher Vui
Donald Brighouse
Ope Peleseuma

Scotland
Hugh Blake

Tonga
Telusa Veainu
Leon Fukofuka
Penikolo Latu
Ben Tameifuna
Paula Ngauamo

Wales
Gareth Anscombe

[Mellsblue]

I think you’ll find the NZ u20’s were capped by Martin Johnson.

[rowan]

Comparing 3 World Cups over the first 8 tournamants:

Football (1930 - 1966), Rugby (1987 - 2015), League (1954 - 1977):

Winners: 5, 4, 2
Grand finalists: 10, 5, 3
Semi finalists: 16, 8, 4
Quarter finalists: 20, 12, N/A
Participants: 38, 25, 5
Debutantes (since inaugural event): 25, 9, 1
Host nations: 8, 6, 4

NB:
By 1966 Football's winners and grand finalists had come from 2 continents, its semi finalists from 3 and its quarter finalists from 4 (Africa & Oceania the exceptions).
By 2015 Rugby's winners and grand finalists had come from 3 continents, its semi finalists from 4 and its quarter finalists from 5 (Asia the exception).
By 1977 League's winners and grand finalists had come from 2 continents, as had its semis. There had been no quarters.
There had been at least one debutante at every football World Cup (and still has, after 21 tournaments), there had been at least one debutante at the first 6 RWCs - but none since, and Wales in 1975 was the only debutante at the League World Cup after the inaugural tournament (the only occasion on which that event had more than 4 teams during its first 8 installments).
Qatar will become the 80th nation to compete at the Football World Cup when they host the 22nd in 2022.

[Lizard]

Top 20 National team Head Coaches with birthplace and top team(s) played for:

Italic indicates coaching their home team, test players in bold.

New Zealand: Steve Hansen (NZ, Canterbury)
Ireland: Joe Schmidt (NZ, Manawatu)
Wales: Warren Gatland (NZ, All Blacks (uncapped))
England: Eddie Jones (Aus, NSW/Leicester)
Australia: Michael Cheika (Aus, Castre Olympique/NSW)
South Africa: Rassie Erasmus (SA, Springboks)
Scotland: Gregor Townsend (Scotland, Scotland/Lions)
France: Jacques Brunel (France, Auch/Grenobel/Carcasonne)
Fiji: John McKee (NZ, ?)
Argentina: Daniel Hourcade* (Arg, Universitario Rugby Club de Tucumán)
Japan: Jamie Joseph (NZ, Japan/All Blacks)
Tonga: Toutai Kefu (Tonga, Wallabies)
Georgia: Milton Haig (NZ, Southland)
Italy: Conor O’Shea (Ireland, Ireland)
USA: Gary Gold (SA, ?)
Romania: Lyn Howells* (Wales, Pontypridd)
Samoa: Titimaea Tafua (Samoa, Samoa)
Uruguay: Esteban Meneses (Argentina, La Plata)
Russia: Mark McDermott (Ireland, Ireland A)
Spain: Santiago Santos (Spain, ?)

By birthplace
Bold includes coach of that country

NZ: 6
Aus: 2
SA: 2
Arg: 2
Ireland: 2
Scot: 1
France: 1
Tonga: 1
Wales: 1
Samoa: 1
Spain: 1

9 Coaches are homegrown. 6 played test rugby. 4 are coaching a test side they played for of which 3 were also born in that country. Uniquely, dual-international Jamie Joseph is coaching the test side of a nation he represented without being born there. Conversely, Toutai Kefu coaches his country of birth but played tests only for another nation.


*Resigned but not yet replaced. Jaguares coach Mario Ledesma seems to be front runner for the Pumas job. he was born in and capped by Argentina.

EDIT: to account for the following posts.

[cashead]

By this standard, shouldn't Jamie Joseph technically be coaching his home team? He did play test rugby for Japan after all, even appearing for them at the 1999 RWC.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Daniel Hourcade has been sacked hasn't he?

[cashead]

Well, "resigned," at least. I suspect he jumped before he got pushed.

[Lizard]

By this standard, shouldn't Jamie Joseph technically be coaching his home team? He did play test rugby for Japan after all, even appearing for them at the 1999 RWC.

Good point. I had included All Blacks as the "top team" he played for (no offense to the Brave Blossoms but, y'know...) then overlooked his Japanese representation in writing the summary.

[Lizard]

Well, "resigned," at least. I suspect he jumped before he got pushed.

Also a good point. Could you please update both the Pumas and Hourcade's respective Wikipedia pages?

[Lizard]

Relevant post now edited, thank you.

[Lizard]

Number of Super Rugby semi-final appearances (and most recent appearance)
Crusaders: 17 (2017)
Brumbies: 9 (2015)
Hurricanes: 9 (2017)
Waratahs: 7 (2015)
Chiefs: 6 (2017)
Highlanders: 6 (2016)
Sharks: 6 (2014)
Bulls: 6 (2013)
Blues: 6 (2011)
Stormers: 5 (2012)
Cats/Lions: 4 (2017)
Reds : 4 (2011)
Natal*: 2 (1997)
Northern Transvaal*: 1 (1996)

No semi appearances: Transvaal/Gauteng*, Western Province,* Free State*, Rebels, Force*, Cheetahs*, Southern Kings, Jaguares, Sunwolves

Interestingly, all of the original franchises (i.e. as of Super 12 1998, when SA introduced franchises) have had at least 4 semi-final appearances each. Not a single expansion team has made the cut even once.

You could argue that the 1996-97 SA provinces’ results should be allocated to their successor franchises (i.e. Natal->Sharks, N. Transvaal->Bulls, Transvaal/Gauteng->Cats/Lions, W. Province->Stormers, Free State->Cheetahs). This kind of thinking is borked and won’t be tolerated in this thread.

*No longer involved in Super Rugby

[rowan]

What stood out for me there was the number of times the Canes and Blues have been to the semis. The former have only won the competition once, of course, and it seems a long time ago now that they were regarded as the tournament "chokers." But they certainly were, appearing in the semis no less than 7 times without winning the title. & the Blues stand out for the opposite reason. 3 titles but only 6 appearances in the semis. That's an impressive 50% strike rate. A quick look at their Wiki site tells me they haven't reached the semis for 7 years, and only 3 times this century! I suspect many would regard the SA franchises as successors to their major provincial bases, but I couldn't possibly comment.

[rowan]

Ranked nations yet to play in 2018
(coming fixtures in brackets)

SRI LANKA 41
GUYANA 47 (august 26)
MEXICO 53 (august 26)
VENEZUELA 62 (Sudamericano B)
PAPUA NEW GUINEA 66
NIGERIA 73 (august 11)
PERU 80 (Sudamericano B)
TAHITI 85
BAHAMAS 86
SWAZILAND 88
UZBEKISTAN 90
COSTA RICA 93 (Sudamericano B)
INDONESIA 97
NIUE 98
CAMEROON 100
SOLOMON 101
MONACO 102
GREECE 103
VANUATU 104
AMERICAN SAMOA 105

Unranked nations which have played in 2018

Algeria
Saudi Arabia
Brunei
BVI
Cyprus
Curacao
El Salvador
Estonia
Gibraltar
Jordan
Guadalupa
Guam
Guatemala
Iran
Kyrgyzstan
Lesotho
Lebanon
Mongolia
Montenegro
Qatar
Rep.Domenicana
Slovakia
St.Lucia
T&Caicos
Turkey
(Tuvalu, november)
(Nauru, november)
(Niger, august)

[rowan]

Crusaders have reached their 18th semi-final in the 23rd year of Super Rugby. They have won 12 of their previous 17 semis, and gone on to prevail in 8 of those 12 finals.

Hurricanes move into 2nd place with a 10th semi-final appearance (ahead of ACT, 9), although they have only managed to win 3 of 9, and only one of their three finals.

Waratahs move into 4th-equal place (with the Sharks) with their eighth semi-finals spot, having won on 3 of their previous 7 appearances, and also just the one win from three finals.

The Lions have reached their 5th semi-final, moving them into 10th-equal place (with the Stormers). They have won two of their previous four semis, but lost both of their finals.

[zer0]

Both the men's and women's Sevens sides have won their respective RWC's, meaning NZ will continue to hold all four senior titles until at least the kickoff of RWC 2019.

A quick visualisation of the winners of the five RWC's since the current system was setup about a decade ago:



Some annoying English intrusions in the 2014-2016 years in the Women's XV and U20's meant that NZ has only once held all five simultaneously (2017). Though, if the AB's win the 2019 RWC, the U20's will have a few opportunities to try and complete the grand slam again.

[rowan]

So Canterbury is going for its 9th title, Wellington and NSW their second, and the Lions their 1st. There have been five new champions in the past 7 years, with the Reds, Chiefs, Tahs, Landers and Canes all gaining their first title. The decade prior to that had only produced one new champion - the Bulls - who went on to win 3 times.

[rowan]

Records are made to be broken . . .

Beating the Crusaders at home is hard enough, but beating them in a home playoff game has proven to be impossible.

The defending champions hold a distinct home advantage going into Saturday's semifinal against the Hurricanes in Christchurch.

The Crusaders have played 19 previous home playoff games dating back to 1998 and have won every time. Three of those were against the Hurricanes including the 2006 fog final.

And it hasn't even been close in recent times. Saturday's 30-point drubbing over the Sharks was the seventh straight time the Crusaders won a home playoff by 14 points or more.

In fact the closest a team has ever come to beating the Crusaders at home in a knockout game was the first time they hosted one – a 36-32 win over André Joubert's Coastal Sharks in 1998.

A glimmer of hope for the away team on Saturday? The last team to beat the Crusaders at home was the Hurricanes in their final regular season game in 2016. That would be 742 days ago by the time the game kicks off on Saturday. Another impressive win streak, this one going back 18 games.

The Crusaders showed earlier this season they can be vulnerable at home. The defending champions went down 29-0 in the opening 30 minutes to the Waratahs only to pull off a remarkable comeback to win 31-29.

The TAB lists the Crusaders as $1.37 favourites with the Hurricanes paying $2.90 to make the final.

The Crusaders are paying just $1.57 to win a ninth title and their first at home since 2008.

Despite being the underdog in Christchurch, the Hurricanes are still second favourites to win the Super Rugby title, listed at $3.50 odds to lift the trophy next weekend. To do so they would need to win on the road against the Lions or Waratahs.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/a ... d=12094234

[Lizard]

Of the teams most capable of winning RWC2019, who has the easiest ride through the pools?


England get to build slowly with Tonga (3 days off), USA (8 days), Argentina (6), France.

Australia also has a pretty good set up - Fiji (7 days), Wales (5), Uruguay (5), Georgia - but could be left a little under done.

France have to start against their RWC nemesis, Argentina.

Ireland start out against Scotland and finish against Samoa, who may be battling for 2023 qualification.

NZ and SA open the tournament against each other!