Brexit delayed

[Digby]

Theresa has popped over to Africa to say brexit with no deal will not be the end of the world, but all those voting for sunlit uplands will be rather pissed off if that's the best of it, and to note we can do more to linking our aid budget into securing economic growth for the UK

Yay for freedom

[Sandydragon]

If this were some kind of Sim game, it would be amusing to see how a no deal Brexit would pan out over the next decade and then ask someone like Rees Mogg what thoughts they had if the economy was half the size it is now.

Sadly, this isn’t a game and real people are going to be badly hurt by a decision largely taken in ignorance.

[Stom]

If this were some kind of Sim game, it would be amusing to see how a no deal Brexit would pan out over the next decade and then ask someone like Rees Mogg what thoughts they had if the economy was half the size it is now.

Sadly, this isn’t a game and real people are going to be badly hurt by a decision largely taken in ignorance.

Yeah. I'm preparing to double my rates...

Got to get my pension out of the UK asap, too. Though it's not a huge sum, it's still likely to be cut in half if there's no deal...Luckily that's about it for me a GBP, others aren't so lucky. Pretty much all the financial advisers here recommend(ed) buying UK government bonds, so all those people who invested in them may be a little hacked off...

[Digby]

I feel confident any failings post brexit will be blamed on remoaners and the EU

[Sandydragon]

I feel confident any failings post brexit will be blamed on remoaners and the EU

Absolutely. The excuses are already written and May will get most of the blame.

[Peat]

If this were some kind of Sim game, it would be amusing to see how a no deal Brexit would pan out over the next decade and then ask someone like Rees Mogg what thoughts they had if the economy was half the size it is now.

Sadly, this isn’t a game and real people are going to be badly hurt by a decision largely taken in ignorance.

Yeah. I'm preparing to double my rates...

Got to get my pension out of the UK asap, too. Though it's not a huge sum, it's still likely to be cut in half if there's no deal...Luckily that's about it for me a GBP, others aren't so lucky. Pretty much all the financial advisers here recommend(ed) buying UK government bonds, so all those people who invested in them may be a little hacked off...

I'm hoping for some deadcat bounce on the pound so I can move my savings to America. I'll probably be emigrating there in a few years anyway, might as well protect my money while I can. I just wish I'd been cold and canny enough to do it in the first place.

Guessing most of the big backers of Brexit have their money a lot more securely protected than me though.

[Which Tyler]

No deal it is then
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45385421

Well, unless she goes for another U-turn of course, but that would be impossible and unprecedented under her strong and stable leadership.

[Digby]

No change unless it's in the national interest, clear as mud

[Sandydragon]

I suggest that statement is more political positioning than a firm no. If the EU wants a few minor changes to get us over the line then I have no doubt that we would accept them.

Nick Boles has put forward a new idea of us joining the EEA for 3 years to allow more time for trade negotiations. On the face of it, this isn’t a bad idea. Two years to arrange a divorce and trade agreement was always going to be ludicrously short.

[Digby]

Quite why politicians think making strongly worded statements with significant caveats is anything but a waste of time is something of a mystery, just who is accepting of the headlines it can allow for, which is to say who's happy to accept such ineptness?

[Sandydragon]

THis would be less painful if a politician simply said that the whole thing is really difficult and it’s too early to define exactly how it will look.

[kk67]

Deja vu, again.

[canta_brian]

Iain Duncan Smith showing just how spineless the Tory Brexiteers are. No plan now to be put forward. Apparently it's the job of the government to cone up with a plan. I guess his job is just to criticise whilst offering absolutely no alternative.

[Puja]

Iain Duncan Smith showing just how spineless the Tory Brexiteers are. No plan now to be put forward. Apparently it's the job of the government to cone up with a plan. I guess his job is just to criticise whilst offering absolutely no alternative.

How dare he! That's Labour's job!

Puja

[cashead]

Iain Duncan Smith showing just how spineless the Tory Brexiteers are. No plan now to be put forward. Apparently it's the job of the government to cone up with a plan. I guess his job is just to criticise whilst offering absolutely no alternative.

Wait, didn't the Brexiters say that pretty much the day after the referendum?

[Digby]

Iain Duncan Smith showing just how spineless the Tory Brexiteers are. No plan now to be put forward. Apparently it's the job of the government to cone up with a plan. I guess his job is just to criticise whilst offering absolutely no alternative.

They did try to write up a plan but realised they couldn't even agree on the approach a hard brexit should take and that some of their number had submitted some bat shit insane ideas which would draw much of the attention and even the brexiters realised they'd be widely derided for

[canta_brian]

Iain Duncan Smith showing just how spineless the Tory Brexiteers are. No plan now to be put forward. Apparently it's the job of the government to cone up with a plan. I guess his job is just to criticise whilst offering absolutely no alternative.

They did try to write up a plan but realised they couldn't even agree on the approach a hard brexit should take and that some of their number had submitted some bat shit insane ideas which would draw much of the attention and even the brexiters realised they'd be widely derided for

Well exactly. And these are the people to whom we are being asked to follow into a brave new post brexit world.

[Sandydragon]

Nature of extremists not to compromise even amongst fellow travellers.

Monty Python got it spot on in Life of Brian

[kk67]

Guessing most of the big backers of Brexit have their money a lot more securely protected than me though.

It's worse than that, Fella.
The handful of hard-right Tory psychopaths have forced Brexit specifically to free their corporate interests from EU regulation. Rees-Moog and his crazy-arse supporters are expecting to make a huge profit if a hard exit goes through.

As Vince said today, some of them have very profitable plans for when it all goes tits-up.
When we all start to starve then Jacob's rural farming community that has been holding steady under farming subsidies will suddenly become the market garden of the UK and profits will rocket.

[kk67]

This will sound a bit conspiratorial but I'm starting to suspect that the same handful of hard-right MP's that have been pushing this are hoping they will be able to start running England like its Lichtenstein or Luxembourg.

10 years from now they'll be asking to devolve the Union and England will become a gated community.

[Sandydragon]

So it looks like the Chequers plan is dead. It’s looking increasingly like Norway solution or nothing.

[Digby]

Still, the disgrace that is Liam Fox seems confident we'll be able to purchase food from the USA that promotes cancer and obesity, and it's always possible even with that boosting NHS costs if people die earlier it'll work out as a long term financial boon

I'm not convinced people voted leave to be poorer and die earlier, but we're very close to that being the upshot of the will of the people

[Digby]

We did at least get support from Orban so one can only hope the Tories are proud of their efforts to woo such an esteemed democrat

[fivepointer]

This is worth revisiting. Published in January 2016, offering expert, informed opinion. Quite why people in Govt (and in opposition) havent fully understood and negotiated faithfully on the options is beyond me.

It concludes -
none of the options available to the UK, in case it were to decide to withdraw from the EU are attractive. Any option would take the UK in one of two directions:
 The UK would become a kind of satellite of the EU,with the obligation to transpose into its domestic law EU regulations and directives for the single market.
 The UK would suffer from higher barriers between its economy and its main market, obliging the government to start trade negotiations from scratch, both with the EU and with the rest of the world, without having much bargaining power.
In short, if the UK chooses to leave the EU, it will be left between a rock and a hard place.
On the one hand, it is unlikely that the UK’s European partners would allow the UK to remain in the EU with a special status, which would need a significant revision of the EU’s basic treaties. If the UK sought such a deal,the EU would oppose such a ‘pick and choose’ approach that could lead, in the long run, to the dismantling of the European project.
On the other hand, withdrawing from the EU and negotiating a new agreement with it would not be easy either. None of the available options could satisfy at the same time the UK’s political wishes and its economic interests. In exchange for access to the single market, Britain’s partners would impose on the UK a requirement to apply corresponding EU laws, without it being able to take part in their drafting.

https://cer.eu/sites/default/files/pb_p ... 2jan16.pdf

[Digby]

A variant on the lady's not for turning then, and we're sticking with a plan for Brexit that's not wanted by anyone. At what point could we put some drunk drug addicts with dementia in charge and not notice the difference?