"What happened? Did your balls drop off?" What's missing in the All Blacks?

[cashead]

Setpiece? Generally OK. The All Blacks tend to get the better of the opposition scrum. Tuinukuafe has probably permanently taken the starting 1 jersey, and not many looseheads get the better of Owen. Lineouts are fairly reliable, although there is still the odd duff throw.

Loose forwards? Depth at openside is fine - Cane, Savea are all doing a decent job, and Hunt is one for the future.

So what's the problem? What's your diagnosis?

1. Lack of a long range kicker. Barrett's a fine player and he's added drop goals to his arsenal. McKenzie is a decent player. Mo'unga is probably the best long-term prospect at 10. But none of them can send the ball flying into the opposition 22 from their own half. They're consistently lacking distance when kicking from hand. We've also seen over and over that a long-range goal-kicker is a great asset. The Springboks have 10s that can kick for miles, England's got Elliot Daly and the Wallabies have Reece Hodge, all of whom have punished the All Blacks at some point or another.


2. No midfield penetration. An article in the Herald about the impending return of Ma'a Nonu is what inspired this, and really, have we had someone that you can consistently rely on to break the gainline in the midfield since he took up a contract with Toulon? ALB might do that in due time, and Laumape clearly has the skillset required, but like Nonu at the start of his test career, lacks the consistency he had near the end. SBW can create gaps with his offloads, but his overall game has declined, probably due to the multitude of injuries he's worked through. As defensively solid as Ryan Crotty and Jack Goodhue are (and I make no secret of the fact that I like them as a duo), neither really are linebreakers, and perhaps fielding both is a luxury.


3. Read. Are his best days over? I would argue he is still the best captain we have, even if his best players as an 8 is behind him. I guess some would argue Savea should be at 8 after some strong performances there for both the All Blacks and Hurricanes, although his lack of height could cause balance issues in the loose forwards. With the emergence of Shannon Frizell and Luke Whitelock's resurrected test career, or the possibility of shifting Evans to 8, there will be plenty of debate to see who should be at 8. As captain though, who takes over? Whitelock has had success with the Crusaders, but one thing that has stood out about Read this year is how he's constantly talking to the referee, and working them like Richie did. Hell in the England game, I don't think there was a single time where the ref mic didn't pick up Read yapping at him about all manner of things, from clarifications on penalties, issues he'd like the ref to look at, and what Garces' interpretation of Waiting for Godot is. Conversely, he's also good at stepping back when he needs to, and not press the matter more than required. And that's exactly what you'd want in a captain.


4. Loose forwards. Squire has been largely anonymous in his appearances this year, and it's clear the All Blacks are missing a hard-hitting grinder at 6, which Kaino provided. So whom? Papali'i? Hemopo? There is a clear lack of physicality here, and Hemopo was selected for his tackling, while Papali'i is one of the top defensive loose forwards, with the size to be a viable option at 6. This should then have a better effect on Smith's performances, where he'd be able to work with an extra-second or two to make his plays.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

The only actual problem I can see is the tombola selecting the centres. You should have Crotty or Goodhue but not both as both relies on someone else pulling a rabbit out of a hat on attack.

[Lizard]

If you want A. Savea at 8, use S. Barrett at 6 to provide the missing height.

In the centres, Goodhue just needs to learn whatever it is that Crotty does to make everyone around him play better.

[cashead]

If you want A. Savea at 8, use S. Barrett at 6 to provide the missing height.

That is the payoff isn't it, and it's what the All Blacks have exploited against Australia regularly. My preference would be one of Papali'i, Scotty Barrett or Hemopo at 6, with Cane/Savea at 7 and Read at 8. That said, I do feel that Read needs to be rested for a chunk of the Crusaders campaign, and as per custom, at least 2 rounds of the Rugby Championships to be sacrificed to manage the current veterans.

Right now, Squire needs to be dropped for the next match and told to get a proper rest for next year, because Barrett and Papali'i in the squad would offer more at 6 than he does.

In the centres, Goodhue just needs to learn whatever it is that Crotty does to make everyone around him play better.

Crotty is basically the new Greenwood, clearly holding the All Blacks backline together. If you've only got space for one of the two, Crotty would be my pick at 13 (perhaps with Nonu at 12, if he's apparently in the best shape of his life), with Goodhue as the back-up. If Nonu is picked into the ABs, personally, I don't think Laumape would make it.

[cashead]

The only actual problem I can see is the tombola selecting the centres. You should have Crotty or Goodhue but not both as both relies on someone else pulling a rabbit out of a hat on attack.

Exactly, neither are proper linebreaking midfielders, and the ABs have been missing someone like that since Nonu headed to France. Crotty and Goodhue is a midfield you want if you're going to be in a slugfest due to their defensive strength, but the midfield need someone to really complement each other like the Nonu/Smith duo did. The closest we've had this year, IMO, is ALB/Goodhue but no one's really emerged as a guy who can do it as reliably as Nonu did.

[Lizard]

I really want Nonu to still be 2015 Nonu. But he won’t be. I really want him to be one of the first men to win 3 World Cups. But he won’t. He is 36. If picked, he will be remembered as the obvious selection mistake that cost us the World Cup.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

The only actual problem I can see is the tombola selecting the centres. You should have Crotty or Goodhue but not both as both relies on someone else pulling a rabbit out of a hat on attack.

Exactly, neither are proper linebreaking midfielders, and the ABs have been missing someone like that since Nonu headed to France. Crotty and Goodhue is a midfield you want if you're going to be in a slugfest due to their defensive strength, but the midfield need someone to really complement each other like the Nonu/Smith duo did. The closest we've had this year, IMO, is ALB/Goodhue but no one's really emerged as a guy who can do it as reliably as Nonu did.

You've had Fekitoa and ALB who can both break a line with footwork and strength. Fekitoa maybe made a couple too many mistakes but ALB hasn't really been given the opportunities that his talent would seem to suggest.

[cashead]

I really want Nonu to still be 2015 Nonu. But he won’t be. I really want him to be one of the first men to win 3 World Cups. But he won’t. He is 36. If picked, he will be remembered as the obvious selection mistake that cost us the World Cup.

Like Dane Coles was a "selection mistake?" Nonu, IMO, has earned himself enough goodwill over the years to warrant an open mind. No one is going to argue he won't be the same Nonu that headed offshore after a much better test career that most people would've expected of him based on how he started, but the fact that he's consistently given the big games at Toulon, and the fact that in this day and age, mid-30's isn't really a big issue if the player is properly managed means he's earned the benefit of the doubt unless it's proven he can't hack it any more. Besides, the backline would probably benefit from having a seasoned veteran like him around even if he's not starting every test.

[zer0]

1. Lack of direction from first five, which is to be somewhat expected when you have a fullback playing there. We're not front line officers. We're backfied tinpot dictators. Put Barrett at fullback, Mo'unga at first five and you'll probably see the midfield and wingers come back into the game as they'll have a first five who wants to use them. Not one who either runs it himself or chucks it to his mini-me at fullback to run it like it was a 5th Grade team.

2. Strip Read of the captaincy. Ever since he first filled in for McCaw against Argentina years ago, he just often doesn't make good tactical decisions. Make Whitelock captain as he appears to be the cool, calm, collected type who has no problems driving home any advantages his team has. See, for example, when his 2017 Crusaders overhauled the Blues from a half time deficit of ~20 points by just mauling everything when he realised the Blues couldn't contain them. Wasn't pretty but it sure as hell worked. Like McCaw, Whitelock also seems much more in control as a captain than Read, who seems to have a more laissez faire approach. In the first Springbok's test Read delegated the final major tactical decision of the game to two gung-ho characters in B.Barrett and Perenara who, in turn, decided to try and score a try rather than take the easiest of drop goals. That sh*t wouldn't have occurred under McCaw. And, based on how his Crusaders go about things, doubt it would've under Whitelock.

3. Sort out the loose forwards. As has been touched on, they've struggled to find a replacement blindside since the refs decided Kaino was playing too tough for all the other kids on the playground. They've churned through dead ends like Squire, Fifita and Dixon, when I think our best blindside is our current openside. Heavy gain-line defence is Cane's forte and he's decently mobile, but doesn't grab that many turnovers for an openside. Shifting him across would allow Todd to slot into the vacated openside position, which would likely generate more turnovers. Those turnovers are going to be needed to win the RWC as we'd likely have to play Ireland at some stage. Plus he's a damned good player to begin with. Stripped of the captaincy, Read wouldn't be un-droppable, and would face immediate, and pressing, competition from Savea. If he's converted into a proper #8, then Frizzell would also be in the frame, otherwise A.Ioane would need to be brought in. All in all, the depth chart would look something like this:

6. Cane/Barrett/Hemopo
7. Todd/Cane/Savea
8. Read/Savea/Frizzell or Ioane

19. Barrett/Hemopo
20. Savea/Frizzell or Ioane

But that's probably not going to happen. So, if we're stuck with the same old selections (that is, Cane at openside and Read at #8 come hell or high water and Todd only getting scraps of game time at best) then I'd have one of Barrett or Hemopo as the blindside, the other on the bench to cover 4/5/6 with Savea covering 7/8.

4. Coaching. Either this is some 4D intergalactic chess, or it's just gone to sh*t. Given the results against the Lions, and the coaching personnel, I'm guessing the latter. When Henry stepped down there was always going to be an immediate drop off in coaching smarts, but the return of Wayne Smith alleviated that somewhat. Now he's gone, they're being out coached far more regularly. In particular by Schmidt and Farrell Sr. Short of declaring a state of emergency and getting Smith back for the RWC, there's not much that can be done here. My best hope is that, come the RWC elimination stage, pragmatism will take over, they'll go full Lions I/Crusaders mode and just bulldoze their way there. Ideally with Whitelock as the captain driving the bulldozer.

[cashead]

Honestly, I wouldn't want Ioane anywhere near the All Blacks. The only difference between him and Lauaki is that Akira is in better shape.

[zer0]

He's much more effective than Lauaki, as evident by his topping a whole host of offensive stats in SR despite playing in an injury decimated pack predominately made up of wider training group and short term contract players. He provides go forward that no other #8 in the country can match. Including Read. If Fifita can get a look in by illegally jumping into a tackle, and Frizzell by scoring a hat trick against a decimated Blues side, then I think performing well in SR through the season, and dominating the NPC, warrants a look.

[Lizard]

Honestly, I wouldn't want Ioane anywhere near the All Blacks. The only difference between him and Lauaki is that Akira is in better shape.

Hot.

Take.

[Lizard]

I really want Nonu to still be 2015 Nonu. But he won’t be. I really want him to be one of the first men to win 3 World Cups. But he won’t. He is 36. If picked, he will be remembered as the obvious selection mistake that cost us the World Cup.

Like Dane Coles was a "selection mistake?" Nonu, IMO, has earned himself enough goodwill over the years to warrant an open mind. No one is going to argue he won't be the same Nonu that headed offshore after a much better test career that most people would've expected of him based on how he started, but the fact that he's consistently given the big games at Toulon, and the fact that in this day and age, mid-30's isn't really a big issue if the player is properly managed means he's earned the benefit of the doubt unless it's proven he can't hack it any more. Besides, the backline would probably benefit from having a seasoned veteran like him around even if he's not starting every test.

What’s Dane Coles got to do with it?

Was I originally against his selection? If so then we can chalk that up alongside Ryan Crotty and, erm, Ma’a Nonu the first time round...

[Doorzetbornandbred]

Complacency is one of the issues. It could also be that 4 years on after losing half a team of all time greats you have moved back towards the chasing pack with them improving a bit as well. In some ways it will make rugby better for that happening.
I don't think Foster should be in the mix coachwise either.
Apart from that your obviously finished according to some of the drongos Ive had to endure over the last few weeks in the pub. I don't know why Eddie Jones hasn't employed them as they're such fountains of knowledge all things rugby...

[Lizard]

Oh no. Maybe we’ll ease back slightly from Hansen’s 90% success rate to our historical rate of 79%. Someone get me a tissue.

[Digby]

Oh no. Maybe we’ll ease back slightly from Hansen’s 90% success rate to our historical rate of 79%. Someone get me a tissue.

I'm not sure it's healthy to get that excited about rugby

[paddy no 11]

I've seen Akira play about twice, once again munster and thought he was class both times and he would get ye over the gainline the way read isn't anymore. As said whitelock be captain

Is the 4 nations thingy on a reduced schedule next year on account of the world cup?

[cashead]

I've seen Akira play about twice, once again munster and thought he was class both times and he would get ye over the gainline the way read isn't anymore. As said whitelock be captain

Is the 4 nations thingy on a reduced schedule next year on account of the world cup?

The problem is that he often doesn't contribute enough beyond ball-carrying, and often has a tendency to go missing for ages in a game.

[cashead]

I really want Nonu to still be 2015 Nonu. But he won’t be. I really want him to be one of the first men to win 3 World Cups. But he won’t. He is 36. If picked, he will be remembered as the obvious selection mistake that cost us the World Cup.

Like Dane Coles was a "selection mistake?" Nonu, IMO, has earned himself enough goodwill over the years to warrant an open mind. No one is going to argue he won't be the same Nonu that headed offshore after a much better test career that most people would've expected of him based on how he started, but the fact that he's consistently given the big games at Toulon, and the fact that in this day and age, mid-30's isn't really a big issue if the player is properly managed means he's earned the benefit of the doubt unless it's proven he can't hack it any more. Besides, the backline would probably benefit from having a seasoned veteran like him around even if he's not starting every test.

What’s Dane Coles got to do with it?

Was I originally against his selection? If so then we can chalk that up alongside Ryan Crotty and, erm, Ma’a Nonu the first time round...

Yes, yes, you were. It's a bit of shade bringing up a case of you being significantly wrong about the quality of a player at the test level.

It wasn't just you, in all fairness. Plenty of people on this board have a tendency to judge a player's prospects on the basis of entirely one game, like declaring a player no good because he didn't set the world on fire in the 10 minutes they were afforded coming off the bench, while neglecting to look at their qualities holistically. The other bad habit is to get significantly over-exited about the hot new thing, and screaming bloody murder over coaches for not immediately making them a permanent member of the starting line-up. Honestly, the angst over Mo'unga reeks of the latter.

[Lizard]

Huh. I don’t remember being visciously anti-Coles. It’s possible - he looked quite young and small. Presumably I had a well-reasoned and balanced view about the relative merits of Hika Elliott.

[Lizard]

More to the point, do you keep a notebook or something to remember this stuff? That’s some dedicated shit storing away a prediction made, what, 6 years ago just in case I turned out to be wrong AND an opportunity came up to casually drop shade in context of another thread. I’m quite flattered that my opinions stick so firmly in the mind.

[morepork]

Read hasn’t been right for quite a while now. Too much hoping one of our converted fullbacks will conjur up a flash move.

[canta_brian]

Too many people have been hoping the Barrett turns into Carter. At best he might turn into Spencer. I wouldn’t mind seeing him at 12 with Crotty 13 to run the defence. Put Bin back to fullback and pick two wings. D-Mack is best as an impact sub. Mo’unga may turn out to be a long term option, but only seeing him once the structure has gone from the game means we are unlikely to find out.

[cashead]

More to the point, do you keep a notebook or something to remember this stuff? That’s some dedicated shit storing away a prediction made, what, 6 years ago just in case I turned out to be wrong AND an opportunity came up to casually drop shade in context of another thread. I’m quite flattered that my opinions stick so firmly in the mind.

I have exceptional memory.

[zer0]

On the bright side, Schmidt will be announcing early next week whether he continues with Ireland or not. The Irish seem to be resigned to his moving on, and returning to NZ would seem to be his preferred option. He also seems to suggest as much in recent press conferences. Assuming he returns to NZ, there's no SR positions available, and he won't be going to the NPC because, well, it's the NPC. That just leaves the All Blacks. I don't see him wanting to hitch his record on to Hansen's wagon -- who will have done his dash after 15 years, anyway -- and most definitely not Foster's. So it's head coach or bust.

With regards to assistants, Cotter would likely be one. When Cotter applied in 2012, it was with the understanding that Schmidt was to be his assistant. Cotter has also recently said he wants to return to NZ once he's finished with Montpelier in 2019. In terms of his second assistant, they'd likely be a defence coach given Schmidt a backs/attack coach, and Cotter a forwards coach. Andy Farrell's name has been mentioned, and I'd be fully supportive of his inclusion. Not least of all because it means we won't have to go up against him, but also because he's clearly the best in the business at the moment. There have been some questioning whether we'd want an Englishman in the All Blacks setup. While I agree that the head coach should be an NZ'er, I don't see why a sufficiently excellent assistant's nationality would be a problem. We did, after all, have an Australian as our skills coach for nearly a decade.

I was firmly aboard the Schmidt and Cotter (or Cotter/Schmidt, as it was then) for AB's coaches bandwagon in 2012. While it may be about eight years too late for my liking, it would be better late than never.