Whos going down?

[fivepointer]

6 Bath Rugby 19 pts
7 Bristol Rugby 18 pts
8 Leicester Tigers 18 pts
9 Worcester Warriors 17 pts
10 Northampton Saints 17 pts
11 Sale Sharks 16 pts
12 Newcastle Falcons 15 pts

After 9 games the bottom 7 look like this.

I confidently thought that Bristol would go straight back down but i really think they've an excellent chance of staying up. I think you could make a case for any one of the bottom clubs staying up.

Anyone brave enough to predict who going to be relegated this season?

[Stom]

If Faf gets injured, Sale will go down. If he stays fit, I think it's between them and Wuss.

[Renniks]

Still think Worcester have more depth than Bristol… but it might not matter if we let in 6 tries!

[Oakboy]

I suppose you could argue that Worcester and Leicester have the least resourceful management set-ups for varying reasons.

[Scrumhead]

It’s very, very tough to call.

As per the OP, I thought Bristol were clear favourites to go straight back down but Lam has them performing beyond the sum of their parts and they’re hard to beat, especially at Ashton gate.

My worry for Worcester and Sale is depth. The drop off from their key players to their understudies is significant and over a long season, injuries could be a big factor.

Newcastle’s win on Saturday was a big deal. Had they lost that, the gap at the bottom would have started to open up.

[Puja]

I really want to say we're too good to go down, but with the way we're playing at the moment, it's not immediately obvious that that's the case. We are just so much less than the sum of our parts.

You'd have to say Bath, Bristol and Newcastle have coaching teams that will lift them up the table, and Leicester and Northampton have enough players of quality that they'll stay out of trouble. It's between Sale and Worcester - before the season I'd've said Worcester for sure, but they're turning in some great performances.

Puja

[Oakboy]

I really want to say we're too good to go down, but with the way we're playing at the moment, it's not immediately obvious that that's the case. We are just so much less than the sum of our parts.

You'd have to say Bath, Bristol and Newcastle have coaching teams that will lift them up the table, and Leicester and Northampton have enough players of quality that they'll stay out of trouble. It's between Sale and Worcester - before the season I'd've said Worcester for sure, but they're turning in some great performances.

Puja

Brian Moore, in today's DT, criticises Youngs and Ford for a failure to control the game. England's finest?

[Puja]

I really want to say we're too good to go down, but with the way we're playing at the moment, it's not immediately obvious that that's the case. We are just so much less than the sum of our parts.

You'd have to say Bath, Bristol and Newcastle have coaching teams that will lift them up the table, and Leicester and Northampton have enough players of quality that they'll stay out of trouble. It's between Sale and Worcester - before the season I'd've said Worcester for sure, but they're turning in some great performances.

Puja

Brian Moore, in today's DT, criticises Youngs and Ford for a failure to control the game. England's finest?

Unless they plan on staging a 2007-style coup, I don't see how they can. None of the forwards are taking the ball at pace, no-one is offering options, and everything appears to be working on a plan of, "Wait stationary for the ball and then hope some individual brilliance or opposition mistake gets us past the first line of defence."

Note that I wouldn't be averse to a 2007 style coup (for Leicester, not necessarily for England), but it's not their job to coach and tactician the rest of the team.

Puja

[switchskier]

Northampton have played well the past few weeks but that has come with giving a few younger players a go and playing with a bit of freedom. If it gets tight towards the end of the season I can see them trying to reign things in and that might spell disaster.

[Tigersman]

In the words of a sort of popular TV show.
Winter is coming and December/January/February and sometime March the rain will come and so will the cold.

We have been lucky in that we had a longer summer and a dryish October/November but how long will that really last, will the style of rugby Bristol, Worcester and Saints want to play work? Will the Leicester pack be strong enough to do their usual ground them out and gain some wins push that happens in that period? Will Falcons Ground our some wins? This time last year Bath started to struggle didn't they (Injuries didn't help though)?

[jimKRFC]

No idea who's going down.... I half expect it to be Bris tho.

More importantly who would we be least upset at seeing drop? For Sale would be my first choice with Bath next (would make live a lot more fun round here (Melksham)).

[Stom]

Next round sees Sarries and Exeter play each other, so by the New Year we may have a good idea. And even Glos in 3rd could get pulled into it. If they lose without a BP in Newcastle and Sale win at home to Briz, bottom will be one of Newcastle, Saints or Wuss on 19 points... And Glos have 28.

It's damn competitive.

[Tigersman]

Would be a shame to see Sale go down for me, Rugby in the north needs to clubs in the prem.
Hard I like them all really, although Worcester fans always like giving me their 2 cents on Tigers poaching their players sooo..


Wonder what will happen at Tigers should we go down, would imagine a lot of sackings.
Which players would stay for the championship?
Would imagine the likes of Youngs, Cole, would stay add in the youngsters and it might do the club a bit of good long term, like it did Quins.
Championship rugby is usually a good time to poach some other teams younger players who are 3rd/4th choices.
But who is about?
Henry Walker could be a target.

[Stom]

Rugby in the north might need Sale, but it doesn't need Diamond.

If Sale went down, he'd surely get the sack and then Sale might get a little bit likable again.

[Tigersman]

Rugby in the north might need Sale, but it doesn't need Diamond.

If Sale went down, he'd surely get the sack and then Sale might get a little bit likable again.

Diamond is on the Board I doubt he will ever get the sack, maybe he will move to a board only role and get a new head coach though.

[Stom]

Rugby in the north might need Sale, but it doesn't need Diamond.

If Sale went down, he'd surely get the sack and then Sale might get a little bit likable again.

Diamond is on the Board I doubt he will ever get the sack, maybe he will move to a board only role and get a new head coach though.

He's deeply unlikable. And unfortunately I won't really like Sale while he's there...

So I do hope they go down. Hopefully we'd be able to pick off one of the Curry twins. Though they'd probably end up at Sarries and Exeter, knowing the league's luck...

[twitchy]

I think he's quite funny. Don't get me wrong I wouldn't want him managing exeter but he brings some thing different to the sport. Not your average rugby union character to say the least.

[Scrumhead]

I tend to agree that it would be bad news for rugby in the North if Sale were to be relegated.

I’m also not a fan of Diamond though.

If fit, Sale’s first choice 23 is good, bordering on very good in some positions, but beyond that, their depth is poor, particularly in the tight 5. That could be their undoing.

[twitchy]

That du preez guy looks pretty handy. The boks just have a construction line of these massive guys don't they.

[fivepointer]

I dont think Bath, Tigers or Saints will go down. They may struggle but they should have enough quality to stay up.

Of the remaining 4 i think it will come down to who has the most luck with injuries, whether they can keep their best players on the field, how many BP's they can claim and sheer good fortune.

[Mellsblue]

I’m conflicted. If Sale go down it’s another Bedford match near me, this has become more important now that Leeds look like they might be following Rotherham down to NLD1. However, as previously mentioned, we need as large a geographical spread as possible.

[Which Tyler]

I think I have to put Sale as favourites for the drop currently.
Mostly because I think it will come down to who staves off injuries, and they just don't have enough bodies in their squad; injuries won't just see them stepping down from starters to 3rd choice players; but would see them struggling around trying to find anyone to wear the shirt; and beggars can't be choosers when it comes to the quality of injury replacements. Sometimes you get lucky, usually you don't.
I'd be sad to see Sale go; as A) Rugby does need strong clubs in the North; and B) their first XV is certainly good enough to be solidly mid-table, and challenging for higher - the problem is that they can't actually put out a full 2nd XV, whilst most clubs can go down to a full 3rd XV if necessary.

[Peej]

I really want to say we're too good to go down, but with the way we're playing at the moment, it's not immediately obvious that that's the case. We are just so much less than the sum of our parts.

You'd have to say Bath, Bristol and Newcastle have coaching teams that will lift them up the table, and Leicester and Northampton have enough players of quality that they'll stay out of trouble. It's between Sale and Worcester - before the season I'd've said Worcester for sure, but they're turning in some great performances.

Puja

Brian Moore, in today's DT, criticises Youngs and Ford for a failure to control the game. England's finest?

Unless they plan on staging a 2007-style coup, I don't see how they can. None of the forwards are taking the ball at pace, no-one is offering options, and everything appears to be working on a plan of, "Wait stationary for the ball and then hope some individual brilliance or opposition mistake gets us past the first line of defence."

Note that I wouldn't be averse to a 2007 style coup (for Leicester, not necessarily for England), but it's not their job to coach and tactician the rest of the team.

Puja

Ah, the Wasps attacking philosophy this season.

Honestly, I don't think Wasps are immune from being sucked downwards. Things were better on Saturday, but something still isn't right.

If Bristol lose Afoa and Luatua for a long period then they could be in trouble.

[jimKRFC]

If Bristol lose Afoa and Luatua for a long period then they could be in trouble.

We would be, but with Vui coming back soon then he'd cover Luatua, but I hope we'd act PDQ to bring in injury reinforcments. Suspect Lam and Luatua could find some Kiwi's to come over for a few months.

[Tigersman]

Luatua and Vui are like chalk and cheese.

I think Lam would be hard pressed to find any replacements of quailty with Super rugby preseason starting in Jan and everyone will be wanting to put a potential all black RWC marker down.