Brexit delayed

[Mellsblue]

We haven't left yet

The status quo is that we are in the process of leaving and even legislation stating the date we will leave. To change the status quo, ie to halt the process of leaving, you have repeatedly argued or agreed that this should have a higher threshold than 50%+1. I happen to agree, I just find it funny/disheartening/unsurprising that people so adamant that 50%+1 is so fatally flawed are now happy to use that system as it gives them a better chance of winning.

This is another EU referendum.
It's a point of view, but having set the standard it doesn't seem remotely odd that people consider the standard set. If only for now and any future issue should need something more like 60%, whether getting rid of the royal family, legalising guns or yet another EU referendum

[fivepointer]

Would be odd given the Brexit issue is still very much live to alter the level required for a decisive vote. The original vote should have been at a higher level, but the standard has been set relating to this specific issue, so its 50% plus.
Whether we get to another vote is another thing entirely.
After todays shenanigans and the delay in getting a vote, which may not happen until well into January, the prospect of us running out of road and leaving March 29 without a deal looms larger.
I dont think this PM or the Govt have a clue how to get us out of this hellhole.

[Digby]

The status quo is that we are in the process of leaving and even legislation stating the date we will leave. To change the status quo, ie to halt the process of leaving, you have repeatedly argued or agreed that this should have a higher threshold than 50%+1. I happen to agree, I just find it funny/disheartening/unsurprising that people so adamant that 50%+1 is so fatally flawed are now happy to use that system as it gives them a better chance of winning.

This is another EU referendum.
It's a point of view, but having set the standard it doesn't seem remotely odd that people consider the standard set. If only for now and any future issue should need something more like 60%, whether getting rid of the royal family, legalising guns or yet another EU referendum

I agree with most of that

If we do end up leaving I'd agree any future rejoining would need a higher win percentage to authorise the transition, but right now it'd feel like changing the laws at halftime

[Which Tyler]

Would this delay of the vote - so that she can change... nothing at all, as it's already been negotiated and passed by the other party... could this open her up for another "contempt of parliament" vote?
How many of those can she possibly lose before having to resign or face a vote of no confidence?

[fivepointer]

Ian Dunt, excellent as usual - http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/12 ... deal-suici

"Another day, another moment of historic humiliation for Theresa May.

Finally this morning she pulled the plug. With just over 24-hours until the Commons vote on her Brexit deal, she recognised she had no chance of passing it and delayed it.

In any other circumstance, this would have been a moment of such total defeat and political shame that she'd have instantly stood down. But we are not in any other circumstance. We are all trapped in the world of Theresa May, where the only tactic is delay, the only strategy is the hope that something will turn up, and the only principle is that survival must be secured at all costs".

[Which Tyler]

Ian Dunt, excellent as usual - http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/12 ... deal-suici

"Another day, another moment of historic humiliation for Theresa May.

Finally this morning she pulled the plug. With just over 24-hours until the Commons vote on her Brexit deal, she recognised she had no chance of passing it and delayed it.

In any other circumstance, this would have been a moment of such total defeat and political shame that she'd have instantly stood down. But we are not in any other circumstance. We are all trapped in the world of Theresa May, where the only tactic is delay, the only strategy is the hope that something will turn up, and the only principle is that survival must be secured at all costs".

Has she ever seen a can she hasn't kicked down the road? it may be a 10l can of gloss paint - but kick it down the road she will; even at the cost of several broken metatarsals.

In other news; and news that I'm sure will shock absolutely nobody. The markets don't seem too fond of this latest demonstration of Strong and Stable Leadership; and the pound has dropped further: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46510636

[Mellsblue]

Would this delay of the vote - so that she can change... nothing at all, as it's already been negotiated and passed by the other party... could this open her up for another "contempt of parliament" vote?
How many of those can she possibly lose before having to resign or face a vote of no confidence?

Has it been passed by the other party?

[Which Tyler]

About 2 weeks ago didn't they?

[Mellsblue]

This is another EU referendum.
It's a point of view, but having set the standard it doesn't seem remotely odd that people consider the standard set. If only for now and any future issue should need something more like 60%, whether getting rid of the royal family, legalising guns or yet another EU referendum

I agree with most of that

If we do end up leaving I'd agree any future rejoining would need a higher win percentage to authorise the transition, but right now it'd feel like changing the laws at halftime

Goodness knows what happened to my reply previous to this one. May be the ghost of Banquo has come to change other people’s posts mid- discussion.
I don’t see it as halftime. The original referendum wasn’t the first part of a two part event. It was an event is isolation. I’d run with the idea its a replay and should therefore be held under the same rules; but I’ve never known a replay to held because the losing side (which I was on) didn’t like the result.

[Mellsblue]

About 2 weeks ago didn't they?

Fairly certain it has to go before the EU parliament before we can say the EU agrees to it. Might even have to go before every single one the legislatures of the EU27 and all 1000 legislatures of Belgium.....I’ve given up trying to keep up.

[Which Tyler]

About 2 weeks ago didn't they?

Fairly certain it has to go before the EU parliament before we can say the EU agrees to it. Might even have to go before every single one the legislatures of the EU27 and all 1000 legislatures of Belgium.....I’ve given up trying to keep up.

I thought that was the eventual deal, rather than this interim? but at the end of the day - fuck knows what's going on; not even our PM seems to have the faintest clue.

[twitchy]

This image will never get old.

[Donny osmond]

Twitter chat tonight is saying the 48 letters have now gone in and there will be a vote of no confidence.

*sighs*

Sent from my HUAWEI VNS-L31 using Tapatalk

[Which Tyler]

Leadership challenge wins the race; quite honestly, it had to after her latest delay on actually doing anything.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739

Now we just need someone who's willing to take on the role, and preferably someone competent - otherwise this is just a meaningless gesture that means she can't be challenged for another 12 months.
My bet is on meaningless gesture, quite honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if she's unopposed for the challenge.

[Stones of granite]

Leadership challenge wins the race; quite honestly, it had to after her latest delay on actually doing anything.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739

Now we just need someone who's willing to take on the role, and preferably someone competent - otherwise this is just a meaningless gesture that means she can't be challenged for another 12 months.
My bet is on meaningless gesture, quite honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if she's unopposed for the challenge.

Do you mean that you think she will win the no-confidence vote? If she loses it, she cannot stand in the leadership contest.

[Which Tyler]

Leadership challenge wins the race; quite honestly, it had to after her latest delay on actually doing anything.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739

Now we just need someone who's willing to take on the role, and preferably someone competent - otherwise this is just a meaningless gesture that means she can't be challenged for another 12 months.
My bet is on meaningless gesture, quite honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if she's unopposed for the challenge.

Do you mean that you think she will win the no-confidence vote? If she loses it, she cannot stand in the leadership contest.

Sorry, I was confusing myself as to the process - but yes, I think she wins the no-confidence vote; though I think a no confidence vote in the government would be much less of a sure thing.

[Stones of granite]

Leadership challenge wins the race; quite honestly, it had to after her latest delay on actually doing anything.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739

Now we just need someone who's willing to take on the role, and preferably someone competent - otherwise this is just a meaningless gesture that means she can't be challenged for another 12 months.
My bet is on meaningless gesture, quite honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if she's unopposed for the challenge.

Do you mean that you think she will win the no-confidence vote? If she loses it, she cannot stand in the leadership contest.

Sorry, I was confusing myself as to the process - but yes, I think she wins the no-confidence vote; though I think a no confidence vote in the government would be much less of a sure thing.

I honestly have no clue either way, but if she wins the no-confidence vote, then the Tories have to back her and the WA.
If the DUP won't support the WA, then it's down to Corbyn to trigger a no-confidence vote in HoC.

[Which Tyler]

[Digby]

Do you mean that you think she will win the no-confidence vote? If she loses it, she cannot stand in the leadership contest.

Sorry, I was confusing myself as to the process - but yes, I think she wins the no-confidence vote; though I think a no confidence vote in the government would be much less of a sure thing.

I honestly have no clue either way, but if she wins the no-confidence vote, then the Tories have to back her and the WA.
If the DUP won't support the WA, then it's down to Corbyn to trigger a no-confidence vote in HoC.

By what margin does she need to win to remain?

[Which Tyler]

[Stones of granite]

Sorry, I was confusing myself as to the process - but yes, I think she wins the no-confidence vote; though I think a no confidence vote in the government would be much less of a sure thing.

I honestly have no clue either way, but if she wins the no-confidence vote, then the Tories have to back her and the WA.
If the DUP won't support the WA, then it's down to Corbyn to trigger a no-confidence vote in HoC.

By what margin does she need to win to remain?

1 I think.

[Mellsblue]

Sorry, I was confusing myself as to the process - but yes, I think she wins the no-confidence vote; though I think a no confidence vote in the government would be much less of a sure thing.

I honestly have no clue either way, but if she wins the no-confidence vote, then the Tories have to back her and the WA.
If the DUP won't support the WA, then it's down to Corbyn to trigger a no-confidence vote in HoC.

By what margin does she need to win to remain?

You’ve changed your tune.

[Digby]

I honestly have no clue either way, but if she wins the no-confidence vote, then the Tories have to back her and the WA.
If the DUP won't support the WA, then it's down to Corbyn to trigger a no-confidence vote in HoC.

By what margin does she need to win to remain?

You’ve changed your tune.

There's political reality to leading the party if she takes less than 60% of her own party, at some point she'd look as daft as Corbyn

That said if you want me to stay on message then it's farcical that after two years the ERG are so adamant they need a chance to reset and change direction and afford themselves a vote on such basis whilst denying such opportunity to the country who in theory they're subservient to

[Mellsblue]

By what margin does she need to win to remain?

You’ve changed your tune.

There's political reality to leading the party if she takes less than 60% of her own party, at some point she'd look as daft as Corbyn

That said if you want me to stay on message then it's farcical that after two years the ERG are so adamant they need a chance to reset and change direction and afford themselves a vote on such basis whilst denying such opportunity to the country who in theory they're subservient to

I agree with you and pointed that out to you using Thatcher as an example.

Part of me is hoping it’s a Remainer/sensible Brexiteer Hail Mary. If May wins it shuts up the ERG for 12 months - or at least removes the bullet out of their gun - if they win there aren’t enough Brexiteer crazies to get their candidate - assuming they can settle on one - down to the last two to put to the grass roots. Either way, it’s sqeaky bum time.

[Sandydragon]

A hard Brexiteers in the final two will probably win the membership vote. Which is highly depressing.

Can the crazies unite behind one candidate to get them onto that ballot paper?

I’m hoping that enough Conservative MPs realise that this not only looks bad but is a really fucking stupid time for this and keep May where she is. I think she should go before the next election, but this, now, is absurd.