Brexit delayed

[Which Tyler]

Interesting... does this leadership challenge now mean that conservatives actually support the right of people to change their mind within a 3 year time-frame; and be asked their opinion again?
Or is it only conservatives that get a 2nd vote, nobody else is allowed because that'd be undemocratic?

[Sandydragon]

A hard Brexiteers in the final two will probably win the membership vote. Which is highly depressing.

Can the crazies unite behind one candidate to get them onto that ballot paper?

I’m hoping that enough Conservative MPs realise that this not only looks bad but is a really fucking stupid time for this and keep May where she is. I think she should go before the next election, but this, now, is absurd.

[Which Tyler]

A hard Brexiteers in the final two will probably win the membership vote. Which is highly depressing.

Can the crazies unite behind one candidate to get them onto that ballot paper?

I’m hoping that enough Conservative MPs realise that this not only looks bad but is a really fucking stupid time for this and keep May where she is. I think she should go before the next election, but this, now, is absurd.

If a hard brexiteer does win the leadership; then we'll be seeing a GE almost immediately as a hard brexiteer won't survive the vote of no confidence that would ensue - it's only the DUP holding off from supporting it so far; and no way will they stomach a hard brexiteer in charge.

[Puja]

Interesting... does this leadership challenge now mean that conservatives actually support the right of people to change their mind within a 3 year time-frame; and be asked their opinion again?
Or is it only conservatives that get a 2nd vote, nobody else is allowed because that'd be undemocratic?

Dammit, you beat me to it.

Puja

[fivepointer]

May to win comfortably.
She will promise to stand down as leader before next GE but will stay on long enough to see brexit through.
The ERG loons will be sidelined and cannot try again for a year. They will have shot their bolt.
Part of the deal with her party will be greater accommodation of the saner, pro EU voices in the Tory ranks, who want to try and get some kind of consensus for a soft brexit in Parliament. There are enough MPs from across the House to get this through and it may be the option that really starts to gain traction.

[Digby]

Interesting... does this leadership challenge now mean that conservatives actually support the right of people to change their mind within a 3 year time-frame; and be asked their opinion again?
Or is it only conservatives that get a 2nd vote, nobody else is allowed because that'd be undemocratic?

Dammit, you beat me to it.

Puja

In their defence last time around they could argue they gave nobody a vote, because they believe in democracy just so much

[Stom]

May to win comfortably.
She will promise to stand down as leader before next GE but will stay on long enough to see brexit through.
The ERG loons will be sidelined and cannot try again for a year. They will have shot their bolt.
Part of the deal with her party will be greater accommodation of the saner, pro EU voices in the Tory ranks, who want to try and get some kind of consensus for a soft brexit in Parliament. There are enough MPs from across the House to get this through and it may be the option that really starts to gain traction.

If only here was such a thing as soft brexit. Alas, with no freedom of movement...

[Mellsblue]

Interesting... does this leadership challenge now mean that conservatives actually support the right of people to change their mind within a 3 year time-frame; and be asked their opinion again?
Or is it only conservatives that get a 2nd vote, nobody else is allowed because that'd be undemocratic?

Dammit, you beat me to it.

Puja

There is a rule stating how a leadership contest is triggered. Not sure of anything written down about having a second referendum. I suppose the closest you could get is a GE after the referendum result, but we had that and the parties with Brexit in their manifestos outperformed pro-Remain parties by quite some margin.

[Mellsblue]

A hard Brexiteers in the final two will probably win the membership vote. Which is highly depressing.

Can the crazies unite behind one candidate to get them onto that ballot paper?

I’m hoping that enough Conservative MPs realise that this not only looks bad but is a really fucking stupid time for this and keep May where she is. I think she should go before the next election, but this, now, is absurd.

If a hard brexiteer does win the leadership; then we'll be seeing a GE almost immediately as a hard brexiteer won't survive the vote of no confidence that would ensue - it's only the DUP holding off from supporting it so far; and no way will they stomach a hard brexiteer in charge.

The DUP are hard brexiteers. They are pro-Brexit and the only Brexit that doesn’t see regulatory divergence between NI and GB is a hard Brexit.
They’ve already stated they’d support the Cons in a no confidence vote. They’re only withholding support at the moment is be the current Brexit deal is too soft.

[Mellsblue]

I am wondering that if May wins with 52% of the vote whether she has to compromise with the 48 who submitted the letters?

[Puja]

Interesting... does this leadership challenge now mean that conservatives actually support the right of people to change their mind within a 3 year time-frame; and be asked their opinion again?
Or is it only conservatives that get a 2nd vote, nobody else is allowed because that'd be undemocratic?

Dammit, you beat me to it.

Puja

There is a rule stating how a leadership contest is triggered. Not sure of anything written down about having a second referendum. I suppose the closest you could get is a GE after the referendum result, but we had that and the parties with Brexit in their manifestos outperformed pro-Remain parties by quite some margin.

Yes, the rule stating how a leadership contest is triggered is that, "Enough MPs want one," which is the same for triggering a referendum. I'm still amused that the same people saying it would be undemocratic to rerun a vote done 2 years ago are now rerunning a vote done 18 months ago because they feel the situation has changed.

Puja

[Puja]

I am wondering that if May wins with 52% of the vote whether she has to compromise with the 48 who submitted the letters?

Well, yes. She will. It'll be clear that she doesn't have enough support to drive through her position and she'll have to compromise. That's exactly how it works.

Nice to see that she spent PMQ's deriding Labour as the enemy who are out to wreck the economy. Plays well with the base, I'm sure, and might maintain her leadership role by playing up the threat of the Red Menace, but not exactly encouraging any opposition MPs to vote with her, is it?

Puja

[Mellsblue]

Dammit, you beat me to it.

Puja

There is a rule stating how a leadership contest is triggered. Not sure of anything written down about having a second referendum. I suppose the closest you could get is a GE after the referendum result, but we had that and the parties with Brexit in their manifestos outperformed pro-Remain parties by quite some margin.

Yes, the rule stating how a leadership contest is triggered is that, "Enough MPs want one," which is the same for triggering a referendum. I'm still amused that the same people saying it would be undemocratic to rerun a vote done 2 years ago are now rerunning a vote done 18 months ago because they feel the situation has changed.

Puja

That’s not the rule for triggering a referendum. There are no rules for triggering a referendum.

[Mellsblue]

I am wondering that if May wins with 52% of the vote whether she has to compromise with the 48 who submitted the letters?

Well, yes. She will. It'll be clear that she doesn't have enough support to drive through her position and she'll have to compromise. That's exactly how it works.

Nice to see that she spent PMQ's deriding Labour as the enemy who are out to wreck the economy. Plays well with the base, I'm sure, and might maintain her leadership role by playing up the threat of the Red Menace, but not exactly encouraging any opposition MPs to vote with her, is it?

Puja

She won’t be compromising with the 48 who submitted the letters. She’ll be compromising with those who vote for her.

[Puja]

There is a rule stating how a leadership contest is triggered. Not sure of anything written down about having a second referendum. I suppose the closest you could get is a GE after the referendum result, but we had that and the parties with Brexit in their manifestos outperformed pro-Remain parties by quite some margin.

Yes, the rule stating how a leadership contest is triggered is that, "Enough MPs want one," which is the same for triggering a referendum. I'm still amused that the same people saying it would be undemocratic to rerun a vote done 2 years ago are now rerunning a vote done 18 months ago because they feel the situation has changed.

Puja

That’s not the rule for triggering a referendum. There are no rules for triggering a referendum.

If a referendum bill is put before parliament and 50% of the votes are for it, then it passes the Commons and goes to the Lords, same as anything else.

Puja

[Puja]

I am wondering that if May wins with 52% of the vote whether she has to compromise with the 48 who submitted the letters?

Well, yes. She will. It'll be clear that she doesn't have enough support to drive through her position and she'll have to compromise. That's exactly how it works.

Nice to see that she spent PMQ's deriding Labour as the enemy who are out to wreck the economy. Plays well with the base, I'm sure, and might maintain her leadership role by playing up the threat of the Red Menace, but not exactly encouraging any opposition MPs to vote with her, is it?

Puja

She won’t be compromising with the 48 who submitted the letters. She’ll be compromising with those who vote for her.

I suspect she'll also be compromising with the 48% who didn't vote for her too.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

By the way, if I was in the UK and had seen all this going on? I'd be fucking right off right about now. I do not want to be part of a country whose political status is founded on racism.

When are you leaving Hungary?

Yeah, 2 things about that.

1) it's not actually based on racism, even though racism of course plays a part.
2) we were discussing this. If there was a better option we would. But the best we could come up with is Austria... Which isn't much of an upgrade... Especially for the kids.

It's just a shame all the English speaking countries are now either backwards, hypocrites or prohibitively wet.

UK fairing very well by comparison, especially to Hungary.

[Mellsblue]

Yes, the rule stating how a leadership contest is triggered is that, "Enough MPs want one," which is the same for triggering a referendum. I'm still amused that the same people saying it would be undemocratic to rerun a vote done 2 years ago are now rerunning a vote done 18 months ago because they feel the situation has changed.

Puja

That’s not the rule for triggering a referendum. There are no rules for triggering a referendum.

If a referendum bill is put before parliament and 50% of the votes are for it, then it passes the Commons and goes to the Lords, same as anything else.

Puja

Cool. Should be easy to sort then.

[Mellsblue]

Well, yes. She will. It'll be clear that she doesn't have enough support to drive through her position and she'll have to compromise. That's exactly how it works.

Nice to see that she spent PMQ's deriding Labour as the enemy who are out to wreck the economy. Plays well with the base, I'm sure, and might maintain her leadership role by playing up the threat of the Red Menace, but not exactly encouraging any opposition MPs to vote with her, is it?

Puja

She won’t be compromising with the 48 who submitted the letters. She’ll be compromising with those who vote for her.

I suspect she'll also be compromising with the 48% who didn't vote for her too.

Puja

I didn’t say 48% I said the 48 who submitted the letters - that’s the threshold to trigger the vote.

I bet she won’t be compromising with them. There is feck all they can do for 12 months if (when) they lose.

[Digby]

Interesting... does this leadership challenge now mean that conservatives actually support the right of people to change their mind within a 3 year time-frame; and be asked their opinion again?
Or is it only conservatives that get a 2nd vote, nobody else is allowed because that'd be undemocratic?

Dammit, you beat me to it.

Puja

There is a rule stating how a leadership contest is triggered. Not sure of anything written down about having a second referendum. I suppose the closest you could get is a GE after the referendum result, but we had that and the parties with Brexit in their manifestos outperformed pro-Remain parties by quite some margin.

If we need to honour the manifestos didn’t they say something like leave the customs union vs stay in the customs union and leave the single market vs stay in something which provides the same benefits

Honouring the manifesto commitments of the pro leave Tory and Labour parties is beyond the wisdom of Solomon, they flat out contradict each other

Which leaves us going back to the people to pick a path out of this mess

[Mellsblue]

Dammit, you beat me to it.

Puja

There is a rule stating how a leadership contest is triggered. Not sure of anything written down about having a second referendum. I suppose the closest you could get is a GE after the referendum result, but we had that and the parties with Brexit in their manifestos outperformed pro-Remain parties by quite some margin.

If we need to honour the manifestos didn’t they say something like leave the customs union vs stay in the customs union and leave the single market vs stay in something which provides the same benefits

Honouring the manifesto commitments of the pro leave Tory and Labour parties is beyond the wisdom of Solomon, they flat out contradict each other

Which leaves us going back to the people to pick a path out of this mess

Cool. Let’s have a referendum between those two choices.

[Puja]

She won’t be compromising with the 48 who submitted the letters. She’ll be compromising with those who vote for her.

I suspect she'll also be compromising with the 48% who didn't vote for her too.

Puja

I didn’t say 48% I said the 48 who submitted the letters - that’s the threshold to trigger the vote.

I bet she won’t be compromising with them. There is feck all they can do for 12 months if (when) they lose.

Ah, crossed wires.

Not sure she's got 48 spare parliamentary votes to piss away though, especially since vilifying the opposition is apparently the way to go.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

I suspect she'll also be compromising with the 48% who didn't vote for her too.

Puja

I didn’t say 48% I said the 48 who submitted the letters - that’s the threshold to trigger the vote.

I bet she won’t be compromising with them. There is feck all they can do for 12 months if (when) they lose.

Ah, crossed wires.

Not sure she's got 48 spare parliamentary votes to piss away though, especially since vilifying the opposition is apparently the way to go.

Puja

She hasn’t got 1 vote to piss away whilst pissing in the wind.

[Which Tyler]

Safe, but not comfortable
200 : 117

That's... interesting. Civil war still not decided.

And she won't lead the conservatives through a 2022 election; though she doesn't rule out leading them through a 2021 snap election...

[Digby]

Outstandingly even this vote kicks the can down the road