Champions Cup QF Draw

[Galfon]

Edinburgh v Munster
Leinster v Ulster
Racing 92 v Toulouse
Saracens v Glasgow Warriors

(last weekend in Mar.)

Reasonable chance then of a Sco, Ire, Fra, Eng quartet in the Semi's.The organisers will like that.
GP teams have not done particularly well this season.

[fivepointer]

4 home wins.

Saracens have done well to come out as top seeds but the other Prem clubs have been disappointing. Not sure how they turn it around and get a lot more competitive, but something needs to change.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Edinburgh v Munster
Leinster v Ulster
Racing 92 v Toulouse
Saracens v Glasgow Warriors

(last weekend in Mar.)

Reasonable chance then of a Sco, Ire, Fra, Eng quartet in the Semi's.The organisers will like that.
GP teams have not done particularly well this season.

GP teams other than Saracens only avoided occupying the lowest possible positions by virtue of Exeter sneaking ahead of Castres on points difference - despite having fewer wins. No doubt we're set for another rejigging of the format as a result but it really is hard to see how the English clubs can manage even more self-promotion than they unjustifiably imposed last time round.

Munster to win away and then to run Saracens close in the semi. Leinster to thump ulster then lose in Paris to Racing. Racing to win final.

[Oakboy]

It's all very well to generalise about English clubs but maybe we need to look at individual clubs. Saracens have a successful formula and can compete with anyone in Europe. Exeter are not so very far behind but they are raw in terms of European competition, perhaps because they are short of quality in players 24 - 36.


Then, it's a mucking fuddle because the big players are all in a transitional stage. Leicester have fricked up bigtime and will need to do a complete rebuild - out of it for a few seasons. Bath have all sorts of issues in the background (stadium etc.). I would not write them off given another season's development. Wasps gambled on the Coventry move and will stutter. Again, I'd not dismiss their chances, especially with Young in charge. Northampton are developing younger players and could be dangerous before long.


I don't think there is anything too much to worry about, assuming that Europe matters to them. The debate remains about priorities. Offer Leicester, Bath, Wasps or Saints the GP title or a European trophy next season. Which would they take?

[fivepointer]

I do think you have to factor in form in the Prem. Really other than Saracens and Exeter, the rest of the Prem teams havent been playing that well.
Before a game was played, the consensus was that we would get one team through, maybe two, but didnt hold out much hope for success across the board. Its no surprise we've not done well, but i am disappointed that so few teams and performances have risen to the challenge. Not only have our teams got stuffed on occasions, the real frustration is seeing games slip away that could and probably should have been won (see Tigers v Ulster, Bath v Toulouse)
Our bigger teams should be doing better than winning the odd game.
Our clubs must know that Europe is a step up and it demands proper preparation to provide a consistent, effective challenge.

[old-n-slo-2nd-row]

But Tigers and Bath have been doing the same in the premiership. Losing from a winning position is not unknown to them.

[old-n-slo-2nd-row]

Munster to win away and then to run Saracens close in the semi. Leinster to thump ulster then lose in Paris to Racing. Racing to win final.

Munster v Leinster final. If you QF/SF predictions are correct, Saracens will beat Racing.

[Puja]

Edinburgh v Munster
Leinster v Ulster
Racing 92 v Toulouse
Saracens v Glasgow Warriors

(last weekend in Mar.)

Reasonable chance then of a Sco, Ire, Fra, Eng quartet in the Semi's.The organisers will like that.
GP teams have not done particularly well this season.

Just noticed that only two of those quarter finals cross a UK/EU border on the days after everything's scheduled to go to hell (and those at least kept within the British Isles). Good planning.

Puja

[Timbo]

On the English performance;

I think there’s a load of fluff, then a small handful of genuine handicaps that are somewhat unique to the Prem clubs...But there are no systemic issues with the English clubs or the Premiership that means they can’t reasonably expect to achieve success in Europe. Ultimately it’s down to each club to get their house in order, whilst acknowledging that even if you’re doing most things right it’s still a bloody tough competition to do well in- see Exeter.

That said, and without predicting a surge of English dominance or anything, I am actually mildly encouraged by how English clubs might do over the next few years. I think there had been a period of managed decline at a number of major clubs; Leicester, Northampton, Gloucester, Harlequins, but the latter 3 all seem to be finally moving in the right direction again. Seems to be a clear style of play and identity developing at those clubs, better cultures and recruitment. I think good things are happening at Sale and Bristol now too.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

It's all very well to generalise about English clubs but maybe we need to look at individual clubs. Saracens have a successful formula and can compete with anyone in Europe. Exeter are not so very far behind but they are raw in terms of European competition, perhaps because they are short of quality in players 24 - 36.


Then, it's a mucking fuddle because the big players are all in a transitional stage. Leicester have fricked up bigtime and will need to do a complete rebuild - out of it for a few seasons. Bath have all sorts of issues in the background (stadium etc.). I would not write them off given another season's development. Wasps gambled on the Coventry move and will stutter. Again, I'd not dismiss their chances, especially with Young in charge. Northampton are developing younger players and could be dangerous before long.


I don't think there is anything too much to worry about, assuming that Europe matters to them. The debate remains about priorities. Offer Leicester, Bath, Wasps or Saints the GP title or a European trophy next season. Which would they take?

There's not doing well, and there's being at the foot of every single table (bar Saracens). That starts to look a lot more like a pattern.

Exeter are in their 6th consecutive year of HC rugby. That isn't raw. That's 2 standard professional contracts worth.

As for transition you might have noticed that Ulster have had the odd issue or 2 in recent years and lost a number of senior players and coaches for a variety of reasons. Hell the Irish Indie was suggesting shutting us down just last year. It's not even as though English clubs tend to build from the bottom or indeed that the French sides haven't had their various travails.

And in relation to priority, there's no doubt that the French teams have the T14 as their absolute priority. I'm really not so sure with the English sides. Given a choice between titles I reckon most would go for the European title as that makes them a global player in attracting talent. Asked if they'd sacrifice a home play off in the GP in order to get an away QF in the HC, I suspect you'd get a very different answer.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Interestingly, the GP teams are doing MUCH better in the European 2nd tier. I guess there could be a number of reasons. Could be that you have mediocrity in depth - caused by the salary cap or the nature of the competition or the problems of refereeing or something else. Could be that the opposition fall off a cliff edge in terms of quality. Could be that the french truly couldn't give a shit about it.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Out of interest, do English club supporters tend to rally around their remaining representative or are the divisions sufficiently tribal that no one other than Fezheads care whether Sarries or Glasgow go through?

[Timbo]

Munster to win away and then to run Saracens close in the semi. Leinster to thump ulster then lose in Paris to Racing. Racing to win final.

Munster v Leinster final. If you QF/SF predictions are correct, Saracens will beat Racing.

Styles make fights, and I think if Leinster are to come a cropper it’ll be a big French team away from home- so Racing.

Absolute key to beating Leinster is slowing and disrupting their tempo, because if they get 2 or 3 fast rucks they’re probably the most lethal NH team I’ve ever seen. But what they do lack is out and out size, and that’s exactly what the French have in spades. In last 2 seasons Racing, Toulouse, Clermont and even Montpellier have caused Leinster problems by dominating the tackle area, getting people over the ball and just turning these games into real attritional battles.

[Puja]

Interestingly, the GP teams are doing MUCH better in the European 2nd tier. I guess there could be a number of reasons. Could be that you have mediocrity in depth - caused by the salary cap or the nature of the competition or the problems of refereeing or something else. Could be that the opposition fall off a cliff edge in terms of quality. Could be that the french truly couldn't give a shit about it.

Mediocrity in depth is the way of it. The Prem basically has Saracens and Exeter (who, let's face it, should've put away their first two games to have qualified before the final round even came up and should be embarrassed that they failed to do so), then a massive gap, then everybody else. We do need fewer teams in the Prem (or two divisions, as Which and I constantly advocate), as we're just left with a laarge proportion of meh below the top two.

Out of interest, do English club supporters tend to rally around their remaining representative or are the divisions sufficiently tribal that no one other than Fezheads care whether Sarries or Glasgow go through?

I think most English supporters would support any English team in Europe. We're not football fans.

Puja

[CONVEX HULL]

Saracens haven't been playing that well this year, compared with the end of last season. They scrabble through matches even when their game is disjointed because they have a lot of individually talented players, a strong bench and experienced coaches and leaders in the team.
Sarries often got shredded, particularly against the more experienced teams, when they first played regularly in the HC.

[Digby]

I simply don't believe Owen Farrell is any good at Scrabble

[Mikey Brown]

Saracens haven't been playing that well this year, compared with the end of last season. They scrabble through matches even when their game is disjointed because they have a lot of individually talented players, a strong bench and experienced coaches and leaders in the team.
Sarries often got shredded, particularly against the more experienced teams, when they first played regularly in the HC.

Any theories why?

[CONVEX HULL]

I simply don't believe Owen Farrell is any good at Scrabble

I guess that is why he doesn't play in Saracens Premiership matches that often.

[CONVEX HULL]

Saracens haven't been playing that well this year, compared with the end of last season. They scrabble through matches even when their game is disjointed because they have a lot of individually talented players, a strong bench and experienced coaches and leaders in the team.
Sarries often got shredded, particularly against the more experienced teams, when they first played regularly in the HC.

Any theories why?

I believe that Saracens tend to train all the squad together, rather than first team, second team, academy. They have always invested in the academy, so players get to know each other very well from an early age. A heck of a lot of the team have come through the academy, or joined from the England U20 squad.
They do bring players in, but not many and they tend be experienced players who can mentor the younger ones. When players are out injured, there is usually another one who can step in without too much disruption. Goode replacing Farrell at short notice being an example.
I once overheard Wiggy comparing Sarries with Sale. He said the coaching was to a much higher standard, and fitness levels higher. I think Skelton is evidence of that.
They still have vulnerabilities, though, everything went sh*t-shaped when Barritt was injured.

[Mikey Brown]

Well that makes a lot of sense in terms of the positives, you’d wonder why Barritt being out had such an effect but that’s probably more that they’re fortunate in being able to get away with missing key players in most other positions except 12.