Whos going down?

[Mellsblue]

Was he dropped? He was listed on the unavailable players list...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paul ... -g2qvsr3cd


‘The team selection for today’s game against Newcastle Falcons at Kingston Park was made after Gustard studied all the performance data and worked out which players were less effective for the team away from the Twickenham Stoop. James Chisholm and Cadan Murley were not considered as a result.’

Whilst that sounds good in principle, hasn't Murley only played about 4 games? Not really alot of data to analyse.

Yep. That seems a bit harsh.

[BenHK]

Worcester v Saracens could be a great final game potentially.

Worcester could have everything to play for, Saracens not much to play for depending where they are in the table and Europe they might be focused elsewhere.

Likewise the Newcastle vs Bristol game in the final round - could yet be the relegation decider

[fivepointer]

After 13 games we have a bottom 3 of -

Bristol 25 pts
Worcester 22 pts
Newcastle 17 pts

Next 4 rounds - Wuss v Tigers, Quins v Bris, Exe v Newcastle
Bris v Glos, Newcastle v Wuss
Wuss v Exe, Saints v Bris, Wasps v Newcastle
Bris v Wuss, Newcastle v Sale

The Newcastle-Worcester game looks to be key. Falcons also have Bristol at home to come, which could also be decisive along with the Bristol-Worcester game next month.

[Scrumhead]

I like Deano and Newcastle and was really pleased to see them do well last season, but unfortunately, it looks increasingly like they are doomed to relegation.

They’re not winning games and simply put their attack isn’t good enough to get them try bonus points while their defence isn’t good enough to keep them close enough to most teams to pick up losing bonus points.

Even if they’re not winning, Bristol and Worcester look much better equipped to pick up bonus points which, at this stage of the season, makes a big difference.

[fivepointer]

Yep, Falcons have only 1 TBP this season. They have scored 237 pts with 25 tries. The worst attacking stats in the league. Unless that improves sharply they are in very deep trouble.

[Scrumhead]

Injuries clearly haven’t helped. Arguably their team has improved from last season (on paper anyway), but Sinoti, Matavesi and Williams have all been injured at various points as have Wilson, Welch and more or less most of their first choice front row!

[Scrumhead]

This weekend coming is critical for Falcons. If Worcester beat them on Sunday, I think they’re as good as down. A nine point deficit on Bristol is too much to make up for a team that’s only won 3 games in 14.

[fivepointer]

It truly is a must win game for Newcastle.

[Scrumhead]

Even if Newcastle win on Sunday, I can definitely see Bristol and Worcester picking up a couple more wins between now and the end of the season which effectively means Newcastle would need to win another 2 or 3. Based upon recent form, it’s hard to see that happening.

[Raggs]

What's the largest drop to relegation been in the past? From play offs to relegated has got to be one of the biggest surely?

[Big D]

What's the largest drop to relegation been in the past? From play offs to relegated has got to be one of the biggest surely?

IIRC Quins and Northampton went from top 6 to relegated but that's as high a drop as I can remember.

[fivepointer]

Newcastle do have a decent run in. Of their 8 remaining games, 5 are at home.
They have Wuss, Sale, Tigers, Saints and Bristol. That isnt the hardest group of games and you would expect them to win a few.
They have to beat Wuss this weekend though. Lose that and things really do look daunting with a reliance on Bristol completely falling apart.

[jimKRFC]

Bris could make it harder for them by not giving the opposition 3 tries every week.....

[Scrumhead]

Yes, but you’re typically scoring a few too.

Newcastle are conceding without firing too many shots in return.

[Peej]

Newcastle do have a decent run in. Of their 8 remaining games, 5 are at home.
They have Wuss, Sale, Tigers, Saints and Bristol. That isnt the hardest group of games and you would expect them to win a few.
They have to beat Wuss this weekend though. Lose that and things really do look daunting with a reliance on Bristol completely falling apart.

They could easily win at least four of those, which propels them right up the league and sucks other people down.

[Mellsblue]

Newcastle do have a decent run in. Of their 8 remaining games, 5 are at home.
They have Wuss, Sale, Tigers, Saints and Bristol. That isnt the hardest group of games and you would expect them to win a few.
They have to beat Wuss this weekend though. Lose that and things really do look daunting with a reliance on Bristol completely falling apart.

They could easily win at least four of those, which propels them right up the league and sucks other people down.

Yep. Win against Wuss and Bristol, and things look a lot different. Leicester are there for the taking, at present. I can’t see them winning away - Wasps, Sarries & Glos - so they probably need another win as well.

[Scrumhead]

Yes, but they’re playing Bristol on the final day so by then it may be too little too late.

They’d need to have at least a couple of wins between now and then to be in a position for the Bristol game to really matter and hope that Bristol stop picking up bonus points.

[Tigersman]

Newcastle should certainly be targeting Leicester.

Hopefully Ford will have a point to prove and keep playing like he has been for Tigers which might give us a decent chance.

[Mellsblue]

Looks like it could go down to the wire.

[Scrumhead]

Just watched Newcastle vs. Worcester. What a terrible second half. Zero quality on display.

I don’t think I’ve seen Worcester play as poorly as that with almost a first choice side. Newcastle deserved the win and they’re now only 5 points behind Worcester. Performance aside, that result is a huge stride towards survival.

[fivepointer]

Falcons have given themselves a fighting chance, which was the bare minimum requirement from today.

[Scrumhead]

Hard to gauge who has the toughest run in TBH. Given that home games are the most likely wins, I think Worcester may now be in the worst position.

They have three remaining games at Sixways but these are against Exeter, Saracens and Gloucester so there’s not a huge amount of advantage left playing at home.

By contrast, I’d fancy Bristol to win two of their home games (Worcester and Sale).

Newcastle have the advantage of four home games and Sale, Leicester, Saints and Bristol are all beatable on the road. I don’t see them winning all four, but they could definitely take a couple of these.

[Tigersman]

I would say Worcester have the hardest run.

If Leicester had lost that game they would've been only 9 points ahead of falcons, with Falcons playing them at home which I bank on them to win.

[Stom]

Would be kinda hilarious if Tigers went down...

[Banquo]

Would be kinda hilarious if Tigers went down...

especially if accompanied by a ring fenced 11 team prem