IRB World Rankings Outlook

[Puja]

Bit late on this, as France have already snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against Wales, but that result was never going to tear up too many trees as there were too many ranking points between the two. A French win could have taken them above Fiji into 8th, but Ntmack's pass/Huget's slide puts them down to 10th behind Argentina.

Scotland don't have much to play for in the rankings today - a win won't gain them any points, while even a big loss can't take them below Fiji. Italy, on the other hand, can overtake Georgia with any win, which is morally quite important.

England are too far in front of South Africa to drop down from 3rd, no matter the result from today, although it would lose us ground on 3rd. Any victory will see us leapfrog Wales and bring 2nd within our range in this tournament. An unlikely 16 point win would bring us up to 2nd, although I think we can likely forget that.

Ireland have the most interesting potential result and a possible silver lining if they beat us. If they win the Grand Slam, they will take over as no 1 ranked team, breaking New Zealand's hegemony for the first time since 2009. I'd cheer for that.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

England are too far in front of South Africa to drop down from 3rd, no matter the result from today, although it would lose us ground on 3rd. Any victory will see us leapfrog Wales and bring 2nd within our range in this tournament. An unlikely 16 point win would bring us up to 2nd, although I think we can likely forget that.

So close

[Puja]

England are too far in front of South Africa to drop down from 3rd, no matter the result from today, although it would lose us ground on 3rd. Any victory will see us leapfrog Wales and bring 2nd within our range in this tournament. An unlikely 16 point win would bring us up to 2nd, although I think we can likely forget that.

So close

I was actually thinking during the game that the last time I said something like that on one of these ranking threads, it was about how unlikely it would be for us to beat NZ by 16 points in 2012.

On the bright side, I had money on England to win by >5, so I'm happy enough with the margin!

Puja

[Puja]

1 New Zealand 92.54
2 Ireland 89.37 (-1.79)
3 (↑4) England 88.02 (+1.79)
4 (↓3) Wales 87.55 (+0.31)
5 South Africa 84.58
6 Australia 82.40
7 Scotland 81.84
8 Fiji 77.95
9 (↑10) Argentina 77.05
10 (↓9) France 77.02 (-0.31)
11 Japan 75.24
12 USA 73.66
13 Georgia 73.42
14 Tonga 73.02
15 Italy 72.75

Incidentally, that Cooney try now means that it's not possible for England to overtake Ireland this 6N through their own performances. If both teams win the rest of their games, then Ireland will stay 2nd.

Puja

[Puja]

I would post an update, but there literally isn't any. The only team who wasn't too far ahead of their opposition to get ranking points was Ireland, and that's only because they were playing away. Weekend of mismatches, apparently.

Puja

[Danno]

Appreciate this. Largely posting to encourage you not to abandon it in the event that you feel like you're talking to yourself.

[Insouciant]

Appreciate this. Largely posting to encourage you not to abandon it in the event that you feel like you're talking to yourself.

Pretty much this. I tend to check this type of post after checking the match report and everyone's view on what happened. The good work is appreciated.

[Lizard]

Has Canada’s loss to Brazil made any difference?

[Puja]

Has Canada’s loss to Brazil made any difference?

It has - Brazil are now up to 26th and I believe Canada are down in 23rd again.

And thanks for the thanks all - it's nice to have it confirmed I'm not just talking to myself a la Rowan.

Puja

[Hooky]

Bump

[Mellsblue]

Cheeky fecker

[normanski]

Has the Wales win put them back in third place?

[Banquo]

Has the Wales win put them back in third place?

yep, for now

[Puja]

Has the Wales win put them back in third place?

yep, for now

And deservedly so. The rankings do generally seem to reflect real life quite well.

1 New Zealand 92.54
2 Ireland 89.92
3 (↑4) Wales 88.30 (+0.75)
4 (↓3) England 87.27 (-0.75)
5 South Africa 84.58
6 Australia 82.40
7 Scotland 79.61 (-1.69)
8 (↑10) France 78.71 (+1.69)
9 (↓8) Fiji 77.95
10 (↓9) Argentina 77.05

Puja

[normanski]

Has the Wales win put them back in third place?

yep, for now

And deservedly so. The rankings do generally seem to reflect real life quite well.

1 New Zealand 92.54
2 Ireland 89.92
3 (↑4) Wales 88.30 (+0.75)
4 (↓3) England 87.27 (-0.75)
5 South Africa 84.58
6 Australia 82.40
7 Scotland 79.61 (-1.69)
8 (↑10) France 78.71 (+1.69)
9 (↓8) Fiji 77.95
10 (↓9) Argentina 77.05

Puja

Thanks. Very close at the top so a poor game could make a difference.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

3 points is reckoned to be the value of home advantage so as usual the rankings look more or less spot on. Ireland's actual value will depend on the next couple of games.

[Puja]

Absolutely bog-all happened in the rankings this weekend. The only team who gained any ranking points in the top 10 was Wales, which snuck them very slightly further ahead of England.

Next weekend's going to be the interesting one - any victory for Wales will see them overtake Ireland into second place in the world (which you wouldn't begrudge them if they get the GS). That would be the first time they'd ever got there. A close loss will see them keep 3rd, but a loss by >=16 points would mean they drop below England again. As for ourselves, we can't gain any points from beating Scotland and are secure in 4th unless we lose by >=16 points. France can't gain anything from beating Italy, but would go down to 9th (or 10th if thumped) with a defeat.

Puja

[Puja]

The headline of this weekend (apart from the obvious of Switzerland dropping two places after getting dicked by Portugal) is that Wales are now ranked second in the world and are now officially the new team for the NZ Herald to lose their shit about as the inevitable conqueror of the ABs in Japan. None of the other teams move positions with these results, although Scotland drawing away at a higher ranked team means they've taken a big step towards Australia in 6th and we've taken a big step towards SA in 5th.

1 New Zealand 92.54
2 (↑3) Wales 89.96 (+1.23)
3 (↓2) Ireland 88.69 (-1.23)
4 England 86.27 (-1.00)
5 South Africa 84.58
6 Australia 82.40
7 Scotland 80.17 (+1.00)
8 France 79.42 (+0.70)
9 Fiji 77.95
10 Argentina 77.05
11 Japan 75.24
12 Georgia 73.93
13 Tonga 73.02
14 Italy 72.04 (-0.70)
15 USA 71.71

Puja

[Puja]

As a side note, it is entirely possible, if not particularly plausible, for Wales to top the rankings this year. New Zealand's first two Rugby Championship games are against South Africa at home and Australia away and, with the big ranking gaps between them, 2 losses would see them yield top spot (as would one >16 loss to SA in the first game).

Not particularly likely to happen, but interesting that it even could. There was a time where NZ could lose 4 on the trot and still stay no 1.

Puja