Brexit delayed

[Puja]

Lol....ERG left looking totally bereft now.

They're having the last laugh as things currently stand. If we don't have a coherent plan of what we actually want, we'll get no more than a 2 month extension from the EU and that solely so they can get their own No Deal planning done.

Puja

So what actually happens if we pass the legislation voted for tonight to take no deal off the table, which I'd understood to be possible unilaterally; the way I read what had happened was ERG wouldn't get their no deal, and then we'd have an indefinite extension by default. Do you know, therefore, that the EU can effectively kick us out if we change our statute book?

Unfortunately, the only things we can do unilaterally are leave without a deal or withdraw Article 50 completely. It would be technically possible to withdraw Article 50 and then resubmit it to get another 2 years, but I can't see that course of events as a) withdrawing it at all would be "betraying the will of the people (TM)" and thus politically toxic and b) it'd take an act of parliament to withdraw it and another one to resubmit it and I'm not sure there'd be a definite majority to resubmit it.

Taking no deal off the table tonight didn't actually achieve anything - we can say all we like that we don't want no deal, but we've already legally committed to leaving on 29th March by invoking Article 50. Unless we agree a deal, get the EU to agree to an extension, or withdraw Article 50, then we're leaving without any deal at all.

Puja

[Stom]

They're having the last laugh as things currently stand. If we don't have a coherent plan of what we actually want, we'll get no more than a 2 month extension from the EU and that solely so they can get their own No Deal planning done.

Puja

So what actually happens if we pass the legislation voted for tonight to take no deal off the table, which I'd understood to be possible unilaterally; the way I read what had happened was ERG wouldn't get their no deal, and then we'd have an indefinite extension by default. Do you know, therefore, that the EU can effectively kick us out if we change our statute book?

Unfortunately, the only things we can do unilaterally are leave without a deal or withdraw Article 50 completely. It would be technically possible to withdraw Article 50 and then resubmit it to get another 2 years, but I can't see that course of events as a) withdrawing it at all would be "betraying the will of the people (TM)" and thus politically toxic and b) it'd take an act of parliament to withdraw it and another one to resubmit it and I'm not sure there'd be a definite majority to resubmit it.

Taking no deal off the table tonight didn't actually achieve anything - we can say all we like that we don't want no deal, but we've already legally committed to leaving on 29th March by invoking Article 50. Unless we agree a deal, get the EU to agree to an extension, or withdraw Article 50, then we're leaving without any deal at all.

Puja

Wouldn't it technically mean that we'd need to revoke A50? As without an agreed WA, and with ND off the table, it's the only option...

[Banquo]

They're having the last laugh as things currently stand. If we don't have a coherent plan of what we actually want, we'll get no more than a 2 month extension from the EU and that solely so they can get their own No Deal planning done.

Puja

So what actually happens if we pass the legislation voted for tonight to take no deal off the table, which I'd understood to be possible unilaterally; the way I read what had happened was ERG wouldn't get their no deal, and then we'd have an indefinite extension by default. Do you know, therefore, that the EU can effectively kick us out if we change our statute book?

Unfortunately, the only things we can do unilaterally are leave without a deal or withdraw Article 50 completely. It would be technically possible to withdraw Article 50 and then resubmit it to get another 2 years, but I can't see that course of events as a) withdrawing it at all would be "betraying the will of the people (TM)" and thus politically toxic and b) it'd take an act of parliament to withdraw it and another one to resubmit it and I'm not sure there'd be a definite majority to resubmit it.

Taking no deal off the table tonight didn't actually achieve anything - we can say all we like that we don't want no deal, but we've already legally committed to leaving on 29th March by invoking Article 50. Unless we agree a deal, get the EU to agree to an extension, or withdraw Article 50, then we're leaving without any deal at all.

Puja

I knew May couldn’t ‘take no deal off the table’ but I thought Parliament could pass an act to make it so. So what actually happens should Parliament do this, nothing is agreed by 29th, and no extension ‘granted’ by the EU?

[Stom]

So what actually happens if we pass the legislation voted for tonight to take no deal off the table, which I'd understood to be possible unilaterally; the way I read what had happened was ERG wouldn't get their no deal, and then we'd have an indefinite extension by default. Do you know, therefore, that the EU can effectively kick us out if we change our statute book?

Unfortunately, the only things we can do unilaterally are leave without a deal or withdraw Article 50 completely. It would be technically possible to withdraw Article 50 and then resubmit it to get another 2 years, but I can't see that course of events as a) withdrawing it at all would be "betraying the will of the people (TM)" and thus politically toxic and b) it'd take an act of parliament to withdraw it and another one to resubmit it and I'm not sure there'd be a definite majority to resubmit it.

Taking no deal off the table tonight didn't actually achieve anything - we can say all we like that we don't want no deal, but we've already legally committed to leaving on 29th March by invoking Article 50. Unless we agree a deal, get the EU to agree to an extension, or withdraw Article 50, then we're leaving without any deal at all.

Puja

I knew May couldn’t ‘take no deal off the table’ but I thought Parliament could pass an act to make it so. So what actually happens should Parliament do this, nothing is agreed by 29th, and no extension ‘granted’ by the EU?

Surely we need to revoke A50...

[Banquo]

Unfortunately, the only things we can do unilaterally are leave without a deal or withdraw Article 50 completely. It would be technically possible to withdraw Article 50 and then resubmit it to get another 2 years, but I can't see that course of events as a) withdrawing it at all would be "betraying the will of the people (TM)" and thus politically toxic and b) it'd take an act of parliament to withdraw it and another one to resubmit it and I'm not sure there'd be a definite majority to resubmit it.

Taking no deal off the table tonight didn't actually achieve anything - we can say all we like that we don't want no deal, but we've already legally committed to leaving on 29th March by invoking Article 50. Unless we agree a deal, get the EU to agree to an extension, or withdraw Article 50, then we're leaving without any deal at all.

Puja

I knew May couldn’t ‘take no deal off the table’ but I thought Parliament could pass an act to make it so. So what actually happens should Parliament do this, nothing is agreed by 29th, and no extension ‘granted’ by the EU?

Surely we need to revoke A50...

I can’t see them voting for that either, mind the Tories are doing what they want randomly at the moment. Seems to be coming down to- WA with a short extension to enact all the necessary legislation or a 2 year extension whilst we sort ourselves out.....or a GE (which would likely also lead to the 2 year extension) suggested by Tories last night. The long extension would also bring the joy of fielding candidates in the European elections, and a new set of leaders to deal with in the EU. Couldn’t make this sh&t up.

[Stom]

I knew May couldn’t ‘take no deal off the table’ but I thought Parliament could pass an act to make it so. So what actually happens should Parliament do this, nothing is agreed by 29th, and no extension ‘granted’ by the EU?

Surely we need to revoke A50...

I can’t see them voting for that either, mind the Tories are doing what they want randomly at the moment. Seems to be coming down to- WA with a short extension to enact all the necessary legislation or a 2 year extension whilst we sort ourselves out.....or a GE (which would likely also lead to the 2 year extension) suggested by Tories last night. The long extension would also bring the joy of fielding candidates in the European elections, and a new set of leaders to deal with in the EU. Couldn’t make this sh&t up.

Have they not already voted for it, though? They've rejected the WA and ruled out No deal. So if the EU refuse an extension, come the 29th the only option open to the UK government is to revoke A50.

[Banquo]

Surely we need to revoke A50...

I can’t see them voting for that either, mind the Tories are doing what they want randomly at the moment. Seems to be coming down to- WA with a short extension to enact all the necessary legislation or a 2 year extension whilst we sort ourselves out.....or a GE (which would likely also lead to the 2 year extension) suggested by Tories last night. The long extension would also bring the joy of fielding candidates in the European elections, and a new set of leaders to deal with in the EU. Couldn’t make this sh&t up.

Have they not already voted for it, though? They've rejected the WA and ruled out No deal. So if the EU refuse an extension, come the 29th the only option open to the UK government is to revoke A50.

No, they have had a non binding vote to not leave in any circumstances with no deal. Very different to voting to revoke A 50 and enacting said legislation. This is Rees-Moggs point they keep ignoring, they actually have to do something difficult. We haven't even voted on asking for an extension yet. We could conceivably run out of time should the EU say non to an extension. Not sure you can use a series of no's to do something active like revoking A50; then again, I have no real clue

[Puja]

So what actually happens if we pass the legislation voted for tonight to take no deal off the table, which I'd understood to be possible unilaterally; the way I read what had happened was ERG wouldn't get their no deal, and then we'd have an indefinite extension by default. Do you know, therefore, that the EU can effectively kick us out if we change our statute book?

Unfortunately, the only things we can do unilaterally are leave without a deal or withdraw Article 50 completely. It would be technically possible to withdraw Article 50 and then resubmit it to get another 2 years, but I can't see that course of events as a) withdrawing it at all would be "betraying the will of the people (TM)" and thus politically toxic and b) it'd take an act of parliament to withdraw it and another one to resubmit it and I'm not sure there'd be a definite majority to resubmit it.

Taking no deal off the table tonight didn't actually achieve anything - we can say all we like that we don't want no deal, but we've already legally committed to leaving on 29th March by invoking Article 50. Unless we agree a deal, get the EU to agree to an extension, or withdraw Article 50, then we're leaving without any deal at all.

Puja

I knew May couldn’t ‘take no deal off the table’ but I thought Parliament could pass an act to make it so. So what actually happens should Parliament do this, nothing is agreed by 29th, and no extension ‘granted’ by the EU?

Badically unless A50 was withdrawn, we'd leave with no deal, regardless of what acts Parliament has passed. A50 says we're leaving on 29th March. We either get the EU to agree to extend it or we withdraw it - any other option means we leave, deal or no.

Have they not already voted for it, though? They've rejected the WA and ruled out No deal. So if the EU refuse an extension, come the 29th the only option open to the UK government is to revoke A50.

None of the proposals so far have the magic words of, "if no extension is forthcoming, withdraw Article 50 until we know what's going on." They just say, "If no deal is agreed, we should get an extension."

And unfortunately Rees-Mogg is right that we've passed a law to activate A50, so I believe we'd need another one specifically to withdraw it, so May can't even do it unilaterally - she'd need to get a majority in Parliament to do so.

Puja

[Banquo]

Unfortunately, the only things we can do unilaterally are leave without a deal or withdraw Article 50 completely. It would be technically possible to withdraw Article 50 and then resubmit it to get another 2 years, but I can't see that course of events as a) withdrawing it at all would be "betraying the will of the people (TM)" and thus politically toxic and b) it'd take an act of parliament to withdraw it and another one to resubmit it and I'm not sure there'd be a definite majority to resubmit it.

Taking no deal off the table tonight didn't actually achieve anything - we can say all we like that we don't want no deal, but we've already legally committed to leaving on 29th March by invoking Article 50. Unless we agree a deal, get the EU to agree to an extension, or withdraw Article 50, then we're leaving without any deal at all.

Puja

I knew May couldn’t ‘take no deal off the table’ but I thought Parliament could pass an act to make it so. So what actually happens should Parliament do this, nothing is agreed by 29th, and no extension ‘granted’ by the EU?

Badically unless A50 was withdrawn, we'd leave with no deal, regardless of what acts Parliament has passed. A50 says we're leaving on 29th March. We either get the EU to agree to extend it or we withdraw it - any other option means we leave, deal or no.

Have they not already voted for it, though? They've rejected the WA and ruled out No deal. So if the EU refuse an extension, come the 29th the only option open to the UK government is to revoke A50.

None of the proposals so far have the magic words of, "if no extension is forthcoming, withdraw Article 50 until we know what's going on." They just say, "If no deal is agreed, we should get an extension."

And unfortunately Rees-Mogg is right that we've passed a law to activate A50, so I believe we'd need another one specifically to withdraw it, so May can't even do it unilaterally - she'd need to get a majority in Parliament to do so.

Puja

Shorthand is no one has a plan bar May, and hers isn’t acceptable for many reasons, given it’s a blind attempt at compromise.

[Puja]

Shorthand is no one has a plan bar May, and hers isn’t acceptable for many reasons, given it’s a blind attempt at compromise.

And now there's going to be yet another vote on exactly the same deal, hooray! This one will solve all of the problems forever!

Why can May keep proposing votes until enough people are scared that she wins one, but having a referendum to confirm which of the three choices people want is defying democracy?

Also, this headline is the perfect summation of our politics right now:



Puja

[Banquo]

Shorthand is no one has a plan bar May, and hers isn’t acceptable for many reasons, given it’s a blind attempt at compromise.

And now there's going to be yet another vote on exactly the same deal, hooray! This one will solve all of the problems forever!

Why can May keep proposing votes until enough people are scared that she wins one, but having a referendum to confirm which of the three choices people want is defying democracy?

Also, this headline is the perfect summation of our politics right now:



Puja

There was some pundit who was a senior leave campaigner saying that the ERG would now be stupid (well yes!) not to vote for May's deal, and that the DUP could be won round by some domestic legislation, and thought she could get the 75 votes needed. The problem with that now of course, is that previously loyal May deal voters are clearly in no mood to continue to play ball, and that the ERG are mad and so are the DUP.

Meanwhile, all this plays into the loony-leavers conspiracy theories.

There is no excuse for the levels of incompetence being displayed by nearly everyone who opens their mouth ; aside from making it even more obvious that no-one really agrees with May and that she is utterly alone through her incompetence/intransigence etc.....the whole charade last night was pretty pointless other than politically. Practically, in terms of Brexit, it meant eff all.

[Digby]

If the vote the other night was meaningless for being non binding are there any other advisory only votes affecting all this?

[Mellsblue]

Rumours that if May agrees to stand down after winning the vote the ERG will support. Still doesn’t make the numbers add up, mind.

[Puja]

Rumours that if May agrees to stand down after winning the vote the ERG will support. Still doesn’t make the numbers add up, mind.

That is surely a fig leaf just so the ERG can justify changing their mind because they're worried about losing Brexit altogether. The second Brexit happens, May is history anyway, so making her resign gains you absolutely nothing.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

Rumours that if May agrees to stand down after winning the vote the ERG will support. Still doesn’t make the numbers add up, mind.

That is surely a fig leaf just so the ERG can justify changing their mind because they're worried about losing Brexit altogether. The second Brexit happens, May is history anyway, so making her resign gains you absolutely nothing.

Puja

A lot of the ERG are looking for an excuse to climb down. If Cox and reviewed his own cod piece in a more positive manner or the EU had given the UK a unilateral way out then it may/would have been a lot closer last night. Don’t forget that May has immunity from a leadership challenge for a longtime yet. However, she did get to keep no 10 by promising not to contest the next election as leader.

The crux is that ERG want a Brexiteers as leader when negotiations begin during the transition period and May can still be in office for the period of those negotiations unless ousted, which isn’t in the ERG’s gift. They want things moving towards Canada straight away, rather than edging towards Norway.

[Digby]

Second referendum voted down massively, odd it's such a margin as it's far more popular than that result, but many voting against it feel it's too early in proceedings, there's lots of time left, Rome wasn't built in a day and so on

[Banquo]

Second referendum voted down massively, odd it's such a margin as it's far more popular than that result, but many voting against it feel it's too early in proceedings, there's lots of time left, Rome wasn't built in a day and so on

Labour didn't support it, despite being agreed policy. These votes are a massive waste of time imo.

[Banquo]

Rumours that if May agrees to stand down after winning the vote the ERG will support. Still doesn’t make the numbers add up, mind.

That is surely a fig leaf just so the ERG can justify changing their mind because they're worried about losing Brexit altogether. The second Brexit happens, May is history anyway, so making her resign gains you absolutely nothing.

Puja

A lot of the ERG are looking for an excuse to climb down. If Cox and reviewed his own cod piece in a more positive manner or the EU had given the UK a unilateral way out then it may/would have been a lot closer last night. Don’t forget that May has immunity from a leadership challenge for a longtime yet. However, she did get to keep no 10 by promising not to contest the next election as leader.

The crux is that ERG want a Brexiteers as leader when negotiations begin during the transition period and May can still be in office for the period of those negotiations unless ousted, which isn’t in the ERG’s gift. They want things moving towards Canada straight away, rather than edging towards Norway.

Rees Mogg tried to give them the fig leaf during the WA debate, referring to some piece of international law. Barclay dropped the ball, quelle surprise.
However, not only do the DUP and ERG need getting onside, but previously loyal to May remainers are rebelling. No-deal is frighteningly real imo.

[Digby]

Second referendum voted down massively, odd it's such a margin as it's far more popular than that result, but many voting against it feel it's too early in proceedings, there's lots of time left, Rome wasn't built in a day and so on

Labour didn't support it, despite being agreed policy. These votes are a massive waste of time imo.

Seemingly today was all about an extension to A50 only, why politicians are so quick to claim they're akin to Trump and can't resolve multiple issues at a time I don't know

Useless duplicitous bastards, they're even asking for support and understanding they know what they're doing as regards a second vote

[Banquo]

Second referendum voted down massively, odd it's such a margin as it's far more popular than that result, but many voting against it feel it's too early in proceedings, there's lots of time left, Rome wasn't built in a day and so on

Labour didn't support it, despite being agreed policy. These votes are a massive waste of time imo.

Seemingly today was all about an extension to A50 only, why politicians are so quick to claim they're akin to Trump and can't resolve multiple issues at a time I don't know

Useless duplicitous bastards, they're even asking for support and understanding they know what they're doing as regards a second vote

Corbyn whipped them not to vote, so some actually rebelled!

They've just rejected delaying to June 30 as well, which seems odd.

[Which Tyler]

Big one coming up

Defeated by 2
Parliament votes not to take back control after all

[Sandydragon]

Big one coming up

Defeated by 2
Parliament votes not to take back control after all

Parliament doesn’t know what it wants.

[Which Tyler]

Doesn't want Corbyn's "we want something else" amendment either.

Now for whether we actually want an extension or not - I don't see this one failing, and I don't see the EU granting it as things stand (things are likely to be different by then though).

Current theory is that she will bring her proposal a 3rd time, expecting to lose (by 50-60). Then be granted a long extension (multi-year), bring her proposal a 4th time, and get brexiteer support by scaring them with a long extension.

[Banquo]

Big one coming up

Defeated by 2
Parliament votes not to take back control after all

Then Corbyn defeated and one of his front bench resigns over referendum.

Could not make this up; think they might be edging towards May's deal inchwise.

[Banquo]

Just saw Jon Trickett shadow minister interviewed on TV. Shadow Minister for what? Being a clueless twat full of cliches? We are doomed.