Brexit delayed

[Puja]

I'll take up the ELI5, on the basis that I'm not planning on arguing any of them, so if you think they're wrong, you can say so if you like, but I probably won't reply to defend them.

Firstly, the EU doesn't have a clue what its raison d'etre is. It's not a single entity - it's 27/28 entities all in a sack, fighting to go in different directions. The decision making is slow, cumbersome and drastically overcautious - just about everything needs to be signed off by all 27/28 nations, each with their own interests and lobbying groups and everyhing needs to be acceptable to everyone or it's acceptable to no-one. Frankly, I would be significantly in favour of a Federalised States of Europe so that shit could actually get done and one point in favour of Brexit from a selfless perspective is that that might happen if we're no longer in the sack, screaming about our individuality and specialness.

Off the back of that, there are certain very disruptive areas of technology that will be emerging across the next decade: GMOs, genetic editing, AI, robotics, etc, and the decisions for how those things are regulated within the customs union will come from getting those 27/8 nations to agree with one another. Those regulations are more likely to be reactionary than reactive.

Further to the lack of overall purpose, the EU is sometimes a bastard to its own members when it suits its needs. At the moment, everyone is united and we're seeing the good side, where they stand as a bloc in support of Ireland, but that's not always the case. We don't see as much of this because we're outside the Eurozone, but looking at how Greece, Italy, and Portugal got the shaft during and after the credit crunch does make me concerned about being part of the gang.

Fourthly, it is massively corporation-friendly and the level of lobbying and special interests is unreal. The current structure is not fit for purpose.

Lastly, just from a selfish POV, our tariffs and quotas are based around what's best for the whole of the EU, not what's best for the UK specifically. We charge tariffs on things that it'd be better for us not to, because it suits some area of the Bulgarian economy. Now, that's not to say it doesn't work the other way around, cause it absolutely does, and we get tonnes of advantages from being able to leverage the EU's fighting weight in trade disputes, rather than our own. However, a clever and nimble government could see their way to a trade policy that saw us better off in the long run.

I will also note that all of these reasons for leaving require us to have a government that isn't a bunch of useless fucktrombones in order for us to benefit, which is manifestly not the case, nor is it likely to be for a while. Hence why I voted remain - there exists a Brexit which could be a good idea, but we are never going to find it.

Puja

[Stom]

I'll take up the ELI5, on the basis that I'm not planning on arguing any of them, so if you think they're wrong, you can say so if you like, but I probably won't reply to defend them.

Firstly, the EU doesn't have a clue what its raison d'etre is. It's not a single entity - it's 27/28 entities all in a sack, fighting to go in different directions. The decision making is slow, cumbersome and drastically overcautious - just about everything needs to be signed off by all 27/28 nations, each with their own interests and lobbying groups and everyhing needs to be acceptable to everyone or it's acceptable to no-one. Frankly, I would be significantly in favour of a Federalised States of Europe so that shit could actually get done and one point in favour of Brexit from a selfless perspective is that that might happen if we're no longer in the sack, screaming about our individuality and specialness.

Off the back of that, there are certain very disruptive areas of technology that will be emerging across the next decade: GMOs, genetic editing, AI, robotics, etc, and the decisions for how those things are regulated within the customs union will come from getting those 27/8 nations to agree with one another. Those regulations are more likely to be reactionary than reactive.

Further to the lack of overall purpose, the EU is sometimes a bastard to its own members when it suits its needs. At the moment, everyone is united and we're seeing the good side, where they stand as a bloc in support of Ireland, but that's not always the case. We don't see as much of this because we're outside the Eurozone, but looking at how Greece, Italy, and Portugal got the shaft during and after the credit crunch does make me concerned about being part of the gang.

Fourthly, it is massively corporation-friendly and the level of lobbying and special interests is unreal. The current structure is not fit for purpose.

Lastly, just from a selfish POV, our tariffs and quotas are based around what's best for the whole of the EU, not what's best for the UK specifically. We charge tariffs on things that it'd be better for us not to, because it suits some area of the Bulgarian economy. Now, that's not to say it doesn't work the other way around, cause it absolutely does, and we get tonnes of advantages from being able to leverage the EU's fighting weight in trade disputes, rather than our own. However, a clever and nimble government could see their way to a trade policy that saw us better off in the long run.

I will also note that all of these reasons for leaving require us to have a government that isn't a bunch of useless fucktrombones in order for us to benefit, which is manifestly not the case, nor is it likely to be for a while. Hence why I voted remain - there exists a Brexit which could be a good idea, but we are never going to find it.

Puja

The thing is, I largely agree.

But there's one sticking point to just leaving and doing it "our own way", which is the USA.

If the UK leaves the EU and the common trade agreement, it would need to organise a new trade deal with the US. At which point, all the checks and balances on quality of produce would have gone and the UK government would be needing to re-enshrine them into UK law.

At which point, The US has us bent over backwards. We want to trade with it on favourable terms, we need to have looser checks and balances on meat farming, electronics, surveillance, etc., etc.

And that alone is enough reason to say: you want to reform the EU? Great, just don't try and do it from outside...

[Puja]

You're not wrong on the risks of any deal with Yank Country, especially with their current administration's doctrines and dogma. We might be the only nation weak and stupid enough for Trump to get a clear and unequivocal win from and you know damned well he'd screw us as hard as he could to get it.

However, it's this bit I wanted to take issue with:

And that alone is enough reason to say: you want to reform the EU? Great, just don't try and do it from outside...

I don't believe the EU can be reformed - it's too fundamentally broken. We're actually doing a pretty good job of papering over the cracks right now by providing a common enemy as well asa massive distraction, but once this is over (assuming, of course, that it ever is), the EU will go back to pulling against itself, each nation scrapping to try and take personal advantage out of it, rather than build something together. And why wouldn't they? They've seen how Greece was treated when the loans came due, how Hungary got away with refusing to engage with the refugee problem that the likes of Italy needed help with, how the UK was allowed to complain and snipe over every penny put into the budget despite being one of the richest nations. It's not a union, by any stretch, and can't be because getting 27/8 nations to regularly agree is well nigh impossible (unless it's that we're currently being dicks).

I just don't think it can be fixed, because it's too widespread across too many countries of disparate wealth and living standards for a union to be anything other than the richest sponsoring the poorest until their living standards rose which, unsupridingly, the richest aren't thrilled by. A union between UK, Ireland, France, Germany, and the Low Countries would be terrific. Stretching to Spain and Italy - substantially more problematic. To Bulgaria and Romania - yikes. And, yes, I know we're mostly responsible for that happening in the first place. Bloody Blair.

Puja

[Lizard]

As a foreign neutral, can someone give me, say, the top 3 current reasons to favour Brexit? (If necessary, please indicate which flavour(s) of Brexit are expected to deliver these benefits, and whether the current timetable would need altering to get there.)

I’m not totally up to date but I think I know the top remainer points already (the UK will not get a better FTA with its key trading partner the EU (or anybody else) than it has in the EU; the UK will lose jobs, foreign investment and status outside the EU; the Irish border question seems unsolvable outside a Customs Union with the EU). Please correct me if I’m wrong.

This is a serious question, not a troll. I try to follow the media but reporting in NZ is generally CopyPasta from the UK press and I have lost track of the political biases of the various papers etc. <Insert Yes, Prime Minister bit re UK newspaper readership here>

[Puja]

As a foreign neutral, can someone give me, say, the top 3 current reasons to favour Brexit? (If necessary, please indicate which flavour(s) of Brexit are expected to deliver these benefits, and whether the current timetable would need altering to get there.)

I’m not totally up to date but I think I know the top remainer points already (the UK will not get a better FTA with its key trading partner the EU (or anybody else) than it has in the EU; the UK will lose jobs, foreign investment and status outside the EU; the Irish border question seems unsolvable outside a Customs Union with the EU). Please correct me if I’m wrong.

This is a serious question, not a troll. I try to follow the media but reporting in NZ is generally CopyPasta from the UK press and I have lost track of the political biases of the various papers etc. <Insert Yes, Prime Minister bit re UK newspaper readership here>

Basically, the top three current reasons from our politicians to support Brexit are 1) we have to respect the referendum, 2) we have to respect the referendum, 3) making a shit tonne of money through strategic investments based on our economy going to shit we have to respect the referendum.

My post above gives reasons why Brexit could have been a good idea if done properly, but from the position that we are currently in and the options that we have now boxed ourselves into, the only reasons are either an unfounded belief that we'll be so much better off, or blind dogmatic adherence to "The Will Of The People" (TM).

Puja

[Mellsblue]

There is pretty much no reason to carry on with Brexit now. The compromise we are moving towards makes virtually nobody happy. Any chance of taking advantage of the things Puja outlined, and a handful of others, will disappear. It’s now a plan that only pleases racists. Kudos everyone. A job really well done.
In essence, the vast majority of MPs have conspired to not get what the want, put the country in a worse position whilst keeping the racists happy. The compromise is also virtually identical to Lab’s policy and nowhere near the Cons policy. So, we get the brilliant result that the party who won the election and formed a govt lose out to the party that came second*. Couple this with blatant attempts to overturn the referendum and democracy must be turning in its grave**. The joys of MPs demanding compromise, an extreme version of Brexit or trying to overturn the ref from the outset - the racists win and everyone else loses.

*maybe those Corbyn supporters who acted like Lab won the GE knew more than we gave them credit for.

**poll results out today show that most people in the UK now favour a strong leader who is willing to break rules and subvert parliament.

FFS.

[Banquo]

There is pretty much no reason to carry on with Brexit now. The compromise we are moving towards makes virtually nobody happy. Any chance of taking advantage of the things Puja outlined, and a handful of others, will disappear. It’s now a plan that only pleases racists. Kudos everyone. A job really well done.
In essence, the vast majority of MPs have conspired to not get what the want, put the country in a worse position whilst keeping the racists happy. The compromise is also virtually identical to Lab’s policy and nowhere near the Cons policy. So, we get the brilliant result that the party who won the election and formed a govt lose out to the party that came second*. Couple this with blatant attempts to overturn the referendum and democracy must be turning in its grave**. The joys of MPs demanding compromise, an extreme version of Brexit or trying to overturn the ref from the outset - the racists win and everyone else loses.

*maybe those Corbyn supporters who acted like Lab won the GE knew more than we gave them credit for.

**poll results out today show that most people in the UK now favour a strong leader who is willing to break rules and subvert parliament.

FFS.

do you mean WA plus Customs Union?

[Banquo]

As a foreign neutral, can someone give me, say, the top 3 current reasons to favour Brexit? (If necessary, please indicate which flavour(s) of Brexit are expected to deliver these benefits, and whether the current timetable would need altering to get there.)

I’m not totally up to date but I think I know the top remainer points already (the UK will not get a better FTA with its key trading partner the EU (or anybody else) than it has in the EU; the UK will lose jobs, foreign investment and status outside the EU; the Irish border question seems unsolvable outside a Customs Union with the EU). Please correct me if I’m wrong.

This is a serious question, not a troll. I try to follow the media but reporting in NZ is generally CopyPasta from the UK press and I have lost track of the political biases of the various papers etc. <Insert Yes, Prime Minister bit re UK newspaper readership here>

Basically, the top three current reasons from our politicians to support Brexit are 1) we have to respect the referendum, 2) we have to respect the referendum, 3) making a shit tonne of money through strategic investments based on our economy going to shit we have to respect the referendum.

My post above gives reasons why Brexit could have been a good idea if done properly, but from the position that we are currently in and the options that we have now boxed ourselves into, the only reasons are either an unfounded belief that we'll be so much better off, or blind dogmatic adherence to "The Will Of The People" (TM).

Puja

I think you missed that from a Corbyn/McDonnell pov, Brexit is pretty important to enable their policies on state re-ownership to be enacted without EU interference, plus the inner Corbyn has always been an anti the elite superstate- ironically aligned with the ERG right there.

[Mellsblue]

There is pretty much no reason to carry on with Brexit now. The compromise we are moving towards makes virtually nobody happy. Any chance of taking advantage of the things Puja outlined, and a handful of others, will disappear. It’s now a plan that only pleases racists. Kudos everyone. A job really well done.
In essence, the vast majority of MPs have conspired to not get what the want, put the country in a worse position whilst keeping the racists happy. The compromise is also virtually identical to Lab’s policy and nowhere near the Cons policy. So, we get the brilliant result that the party who won the election and formed a govt lose out to the party that came second*. Couple this with blatant attempts to overturn the referendum and democracy must be turning in its grave**. The joys of MPs demanding compromise, an extreme version of Brexit or trying to overturn the ref from the outset - the racists win and everyone else loses.

*maybe those Corbyn supporters who acted like Lab won the GE knew more than we gave them credit for.

**poll results out today show that most people in the UK now favour a strong leader who is willing to break rules and subvert parliament.

FFS.

do you mean WA plus Customs Union?

I do.

[Lizard]

I see Twitter is now full of Brexiteers complaining that the EU is interfering in a “British decision” by contemplating a further extension on Article 50.

What this whole fiasco has underlined to me is that British exceptionalism is far deeper ingrained than I thought. Brits have seemed flabbergasted that the Irish, the rest of the former Empire, and Europe won’t simply do as Britain wants, and that its somehow improper for them to put their own national and supranational interests ahead of a middle-sized nation just off the coast of Europe.

Let me have a couple more glasses of wine and if you’re lucky I’ll share my theories on the continuum between British establishment classism and racism, not to mention the utter failure of England (and I mean England) to come to terms with decolonisation and its historical crimes against humanity in the way that, say, Germany has.

[Mellsblue]

Let me have a couple more glasses of wine and if you’re lucky I’ll share my theories on the continuum between British establishment classism and racism, not to mention the utter failure of England (and I mean England) to come to terms with decolonisation and its historical crimes against humanity in the way that, say, Germany has.

Sounds like you and Darren have more in common than you’re making out.

[Digby]

So far the main and perhaps only actual advantage to Brexit is a return to having a blue passport, and we'll ignore we could have done that whilst remaining in the EU.

On balance nobody has identified any positives from Brexit, there are some fantasies but to equate fantasy with reality isn't actually an advantage

[Puja]

I see Twitter is now full of Brexiteers complaining that the EU is interfering in a “British decision” by contemplating a further extension on Article 50.

What this whole fiasco has underlined to me is that British exceptionalism is far deeper ingrained than I thought. Brits have seemed flabbergasted that the Irish, the rest of the former Empire, and Europe won’t simply do as Britain wants, and that its somehow improper for them to put their own national and supranational interests ahead of a middle-sized nation just off the coast of Europe.

Let me have a couple more glasses of wine and if you’re lucky I’ll share my theories on the continuum between British establishment classism and racism, not to mention the utter failure of England (and I mean England) to come to terms with decolonisation and its historical crimes against humanity in the way that, say, Germany has.

All the alternative Brexit plans scream our exceptionalism - Norway+, Canada+, Customs Union+. All of them wih that little plus to let you know that we'll have what these other guys have had except, you know, better. Because you'll do something better for us than you did for them, because we're us, right?

Puja

[Banquo]

I see Twitter is now full of Brexiteers complaining that the EU is interfering in a “British decision” by contemplating a further extension on Article 50.

What this whole fiasco has underlined to me is that British exceptionalism is far deeper ingrained than I thought. Brits have seemed flabbergasted that the Irish, the rest of the former Empire, and Europe won’t simply do as Britain wants, and that its somehow improper for them to put their own national and supranational interests ahead of a middle-sized nation just off the coast of Europe.

Let me have a couple more glasses of wine and if you’re lucky I’ll share my theories on the continuum between British establishment classism and racism, not to mention the utter failure of England (and I mean England) to come to terms with decolonisation and its historical crimes against humanity in the way that, say, Germany has.

Its all bizarre as we had an 'exceptional' deal in any case.

[Banquo]

we are now on page 101

[Banquo]

There is pretty much no reason to carry on with Brexit now. The compromise we are moving towards makes virtually nobody happy. Any chance of taking advantage of the things Puja outlined, and a handful of others, will disappear. It’s now a plan that only pleases racists. Kudos everyone. A job really well done.
In essence, the vast majority of MPs have conspired to not get what the want, put the country in a worse position whilst keeping the racists happy. The compromise is also virtually identical to Lab’s policy and nowhere near the Cons policy. So, we get the brilliant result that the party who won the election and formed a govt lose out to the party that came second*. Couple this with blatant attempts to overturn the referendum and democracy must be turning in its grave**. The joys of MPs demanding compromise, an extreme version of Brexit or trying to overturn the ref from the outset - the racists win and everyone else loses.

*maybe those Corbyn supporters who acted like Lab won the GE knew more than we gave them credit for.

**poll results out today show that most people in the UK now favour a strong leader who is willing to break rules and subvert parliament.

FFS.

do you mean WA plus Customs Union?

I do.

its utterly ridiculous. Its 'compromise' for the sake of it, and extremely dishonest.

[Mellsblue]

do you mean WA plus Customs Union?

I do.

its utterly ridiculous. Its 'compromise' for the sake of it, and extremely dishonest.

Agreed.

[Mellsblue]

we are now on page 101

Which is still nowhere near the board’s outrage about Trump......

[Banquo]

So far the main and perhaps only actual advantage to Brexit is a return to having a blue passport, and we'll ignore we could have done that whilst remaining in the EU.

On balance nobody has identified any positives from Brexit, there are some fantasies but to equate fantasy with reality isn't actually an advantage

There are potential positives, but on the marginal side of being of use. And certainly not paying back after years and years of uncertainty and transition costs. As the mighty JRM said, it might take 50 years....

[Banquo]

we are now on page 101

Which is still nowhere near the board’s outrage about Trump......

[Lizard]

we are now on page 101

This thread will soon have more pages than there are hours until Brexit.

[Mellsblue]

I see Twitter is now full of Brexiteers complaining that the EU is interfering in a “British decision” by contemplating a further extension on Article 50.

What this whole fiasco has underlined to me is that British exceptionalism is far deeper ingrained than I thought. Brits have seemed flabbergasted that the Irish, the rest of the former Empire, and Europe won’t simply do as Britain wants, and that its somehow improper for them to put their own national and supranational interests ahead of a middle-sized nation just off the coast of Europe.

Let me have a couple more glasses of wine and if you’re lucky I’ll share my theories on the continuum between British establishment classism and racism, not to mention the utter failure of England (and I mean England) to come to terms with decolonisation and its historical crimes against humanity in the way that, say, Germany has.

All the alternative Brexit plans scream our exceptionalism - Norway+, Canada+, Customs Union+. All of them wih that little plus to let you know that we'll have what these other guys have had except, you know, better. Because you'll do something better for us than you did for them, because we're us, right?

Puja

Well, we’re a bigger economy than Canada and Norway - as Remainers rightly keep asserting, the bigger you are the better deal - we’ve been a very compliant member, despite a fair amount of bitching from the sidelines, and a net contributors for decades, plus the EU have repeatedly stated there is no bespoke agreement on offer.

[morepork]

How comforting it is to see racism as the primary political driving force on both sides of the Atlantic.

[Digby]

So far the main and perhaps only actual advantage to Brexit is a return to having a blue passport, and we'll ignore we could have done that whilst remaining in the EU.

On balance nobody has identified any positives from Brexit, there are some fantasies but to equate fantasy with reality isn't actually an advantage

There are potential positives, but on the marginal side of being of use. And certainly not paying back after years and years of uncertainty and transition costs. As the mighty JRM said, it might take 50 years....

What are the potential positives? And I'm after positives on balance, so huge growth in rest of the world trade that isn't offset by damage to domestic and European trade doesn’t count.

[Banquo]

So far the main and perhaps only actual advantage to Brexit is a return to having a blue passport, and we'll ignore we could have done that whilst remaining in the EU.

On balance nobody has identified any positives from Brexit, there are some fantasies but to equate fantasy with reality isn't actually an advantage

There are potential positives, but on the marginal side of being of use. And certainly not paying back after years and years of uncertainty and transition costs. As the mighty JRM said, it might take 50 years....

What are the potential positives? And I'm after positives on balance, so huge growth in rest of the world trade that isn't offset by damage to domestic and European trade doesn’t count.

Ah ok, nice caveat on original comment. As I said maybe marginal, and only potential and after many years. Both would be guessing in any case- and yes its obviously trade, with optimal tariffs and lower NTB's.