Whos going down?

[Raggs]

Well it's not going to be Wasps.

[fivepointer]

I think Bristol and Tigers are going to be safe. Its a 2 horse race.
Newcastle could yet escape. 2 wins with a BP or two would be enough but they are relying on Worcester not to pick up any wins.
Its possible. Newcastle have Saints and Bristol at home. Wuss have Glos and Saracens at home and Saints away. 3 losses out of 3 is not out of the question.
I'd like Newcastle to survive, based simply on the fact that ideally the prem has a good geographical spread with 2 teams from the north but the odds are against them.

[Peej]

Think it's Falcons now. It'll be close, but think they'll still be 2 points adrift come the end of the final round

[Galfon]

They need a miwacle now...1 from 3 teams and it is they,
most likely.

[fivepointer]

Real shame but Falcons are surely gone. They really had to win last night.

[Scrumhead]

It’s looking very likely, but not impossible.

If Newcastle can somehow win their last two and Worcester fail to get a point from their last three, they stay up.

Two problems with that ... back to back wins for Newcastle is highly unlikely and Worcester have been playing pretty well and I’d back them to win or at least pick up a losing BP or two.

It’s also possible that both teams could finish on 38 points, but Worcester’s points difference is 100+ better than Newcastle’s.

[Which Tyler]

I'd rather Wuss went down - if only sonthat bath could out in a cheeky bid for Houghaard and Weir

[Digby]

Are we going for predictive text or WT has spent the last week at a conference in Glasgow?

[Galfon]

And then there were 2...Wuss safe.
Can't see Falcons bagging a BP win at Glaws on Sat., if so their fate will be sealed.Likewise if Tigers grab the points at Quins on Fri.

[Tigersman]

Tiger need either
A win Friday night (Lol)
or
LBP and Falcons getting nothing
To be secure.

[Mellsblue]

Leicester second from bottom with two matches left in the season. Can’t really believe it. Wasn’t it only last year that they missed the playoffs for the first time?

[Tigersman]

Missed the play offs once before.

Before this year the lowest Tigers have finished was 5th.

[fivepointer]

Great result for Worcester.
Mathematically its a 2 horse race but I cannot see Newcastle winning their last 2 games.
Leicester have been awful but Newcastle have been even worse and are deservedly bottom and will surely go down.
From 4th to 12th is quite a slide.
Desperate news for Northern rugby to lose one its 2 Prem sides.

[Tigersman]

3rd to 7th
4th to 12th
5th to 11th

[Scrumhead]

How many try bonus points have Falcons secured this season? I can’t recall many/if any?

To survive they’ll need two wins and at least one with a BP. Unlikely ...

[Galfon]

Yes, if equal points it's number of wins achieved first, then points difference if the same.
As it stands It's Tigs ahead of Falcs 7-6 in the win stakes.
Falcs need 2 wins & 9 points from the last 2 games with Tigs somehow engineering not a single point from Quins away Fri 3rd. & Baff at home Sat 18th.
Pigs can fly, don't forget.

[Doorzetbornandbred]

Yes, if equal points it's number of wins achieved first, then points difference if the same.
As it stands It's Tigs ahead of Falcs 7-6 in the win stakes.
Falcs need 2 wins & 9 points from the last 2 games with Tigs somehow engineering not a single point from Quins away Fri 3rd. & Baff at home Sat 18th.
Pigs can fly, don't forget.

Just remember no-one thought Trump would get in or the people would vote for Brexit... we can but live in hope for the shits and giggles if the Tiggers go down and the Premiership decide to ringfence haha!

[Scrumhead]

It’s more or less done and dusted, but there’s a few interesting permutations/scenarios that could yet play out.

Results aside, Quins have played pretty well in the past couple of games and created quite a lot. Given how poor Tigers’ defence has been, I’d fancy us to beat them by more than 7 points to send them home with nothing on Friday night.

If Falcons go to Kingsholm knowing that Tigers are still on 39, they’ll know they will still have a decent chance to pull it off. Gloucester have just guaranteed their play-off place so it’s not inconceivable to think that they might rest a few to save themselves for bigger games to come. If Tigers get nothing at Quins, I can genuinely see Falcons beating Gloucester.

If it’s down to the wire in round 22, I think Falcons have a better chance of a win at home against Bristol then Tigers do against a superior Bath side ...

If Falcons beat Gloucester, I can see them beating Bristol. Whereas if Tigers get nothing at Quins, I don’t see them rallying to beat Bath. It could come down to whether Falcons can find a way to get a BP or two.

[Galfon]

Good of Tigs to eek it out a bit longer..
Last nail in Falcs coffin yet to go in, as 2 BP wins by them will take them to 40 points, and if Tigs lose wi' no BP then they escape on wins count-back.
I'll gladly show me @rse in Burton's windae if that 'appens.

[Galfon]

Kerplunk.

[Tigersman]

Shame (although not really for me)

Really thought Falcons was going to stay up.
Just that one loss to Tigers was the big difference.

[Scrumhead]

Shame to see Falcons go down, but on balance, I think they’ve been the worst team in the Premiership. George Ford has more or less kept Tigers up on his own.

With the signings London Irish are making, they should be coming up with a significantly stronger squad than Falcons.

A lot will depend on who they can keep.

Wilson will obviously be in demand, but most of the talk is about a loan move and while Goneva and Sinoti are quality players, but at 35 and 33 respectively, they’d offer questionable ROI.

I could see them losing Williams, Chick, McGuigan, Hammersley, Radwan, Kibirige, Graham and Harris which would really hurt but as painful as it may be, I think it’s a good opportunity to re-build.

A core player in the forwards and backs is important. Welch will stay and is a good player/leader (who they’ve really missed this season) and even if Flood is a bit past it for the Premiership, he will be he best 10 in the Championship by a country mile.

They’ve also got some good youngsters in the England age grades (Hodge at 15 looks exciting in particular), so going down might give them the opportunity to blood them and build for the future.

[Mellsblue]

Sounds like Wilson, on loan, and Hammersley to Sale is a done deal.

[Tigersman]

Ford's stats are pretty impressive
15 Prem games
205 points
13.5 points a game average
590 meters gained
16 clean breaks
54 defenders beaten
85% Kicking success (I think)

[fivepointer]

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/what-rea ... -lay-ahead

Some optimism for Newcastles quick return to the Prem.
Hope its borne out.
The relegation will hurt the club but they should be able to bounce back if they can retain enough of their squad and cultivate their promising young players.