Brexit delayed

[Digby]

Alastair Campbell kicked out of the Labour Party for voting Lid Dem. Corbyn will always look a muppet going after people for their voting record

Really Jeremy? This is really the priority right now? And, while I get that this is open and shut, this kind of swift sentencing will be compared unfavourably with the anti-semitism tribunals so it's another phenomenal publicity own-goal.

Thanks for tilting the debate back leftwards and returning Labour to being Labour, rather than Conservatives-lite, and thank you for enlivening the youth vote and engaging so many new people with politics, but I think it is now past time to go.

Puja

it'll be compared unfavourably with Jeremy extolling George Galloway winning for a different party

[Mellsblue]

Jezza has said Lab will have a Brexit policy by the end of conference.

[Digby]

Jezza has said Lab will have a Brexit policy by the end of conference.

He's admitting he's got a giant splinter in his arse from the last few years?

[morepork]

Campbell never really recovered from the Lions tour.

[fivepointer]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

[Banquo]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

[Banquo]

Campbell never really recovered from the Lions tour.

I'm still in rehab

[Stom]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

And they might even just merge with the Lib Dems. Lol.

[Digby]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

Chuka isn't in hiding, he's on a tour to get people in other parties to agree to targeting seats from the Remainer side in any future elections. His problem is after the Lib Dem recovery they're not too worried about meeting with Change UK, and nobody from any other group is that fussed to meet Chuka.

So if you want a meeting with Chuka he'd probably happily accept it at this point.

[Digby]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

And they might even just merge with the Lib Dems. Lol.

The Dems need to replace the cadaver notionally in charge so there is some chance this happens. But we'd have to recognise the party base in the Lib Dems often veers more than a little in political aspiration from the party at Westminster. Go back a few years and you'd have to wonder why many Lid Dem members weren't in the Labour Party, though in fairness that was under Blair/Brown, it's easy to see why they don't want to touch the Glorious Leader

[Banquo]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

Chuka isn't in hiding, he's on a tour to get people in other parties to agree to targeting seats from the Remainer side in any future elections. His problem is after the Lib Dem recovery they're not too worried about meeting with Change UK, and nobody from any other group is that fussed to meet Chuka.

So if you want a meeting with Chuka he'd probably happily accept it at this point.

Forgot to ask the fan-boy one where he was

I'm really asking why he isn't the leader, and wondering if there is anything else we need to know about his reticence to lead (ie what he is hiding, rather than where).

and the problem would seem to stem from not working with lib dems prior to their 'recovery'.

[Which Tyler]

No idea how reliable or otherwise infacts is...

https://infacts.org/pro-europeans-beat- ... n-eu-vote/

[Digby]

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

Chuka isn't in hiding, he's on a tour to get people in other parties to agree to targeting seats from the Remainer side in any future elections. His problem is after the Lib Dem recovery they're not too worried about meeting with Change UK, and nobody from any other group is that fussed to meet Chuka.

So if you want a meeting with Chuka he'd probably happily accept it at this point.

Forgot to ask the fan-boy one where he was

I'm really asking why he isn't the leader, and wondering if there is anything else we need to know about his reticence to lead (ie what he is hiding, rather than where).

and the problem would seem to stem from not working with lib dems prior to their 'recovery'.

I've got the flag out front, and the family now follows polo not rugby so we get more chukkas

I don't know he's hiding anything, which obviously isn't saying he isn't, he likes the ladies and there's probably some stories there the Mail would run but that's the worst of it I've heard of

[Puja]

No idea how reliable or otherwise infacts is...

https://infacts.org/pro-europeans-beat- ... n-eu-vote/

Wait, so that survey has 2% of people who voted for the Brexit party who would vote Remain in a second referendum? How the hell does that work?

Having looked at the article, the analysis is InFacts (who are normally okayish, although they have a fairly obvious hobby horse), but the data was from Survation as commissioned by the Daily Mail (who definitely ride the other hobby horse). Interesting.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

No idea how reliable or otherwise infacts is...

https://infacts.org/pro-europeans-beat- ... n-eu-vote/

Wait, so that survey has 2% of people who voted for the Brexit party who would vote Remain in a second referendum? How the hell does that work?

Having looked at the article, the analysis is InFacts (who are normally okayish, although they have a fairly obvious hobby horse), but the data was from Survation as commissioned by the Daily Mail (who definitely ride the other hobby horse). Interesting.

Puja

The figure was also similar for the UKIP party. It’s a strange one!
I did a bit of digging and Prof John Curtis has the Conservative split closer Lab - can’t find the link now but it was 65/35ish. If you also add in that a third of SNP supporters voted Leave it’s far from a clear picture. It just shows that the EU elections are not a single vote issue and extrapolating any proof of second ref outcome from simply allocating party votes to one of the other side is a flawed argument. I’m not doing the deep dig maths but based on those %s you could get a pretty clear picture of a second ref voting intentions, but it’s still a bit hamfisted.


Total Leave. Remain
BP- 31.6% 31%. 0.6%
LD- 20.3%. 3%. 17.2%.
Lab-14.1%. 3.5%. 10.6%.
Gr- 12.1%. 2.4%. 9.6%
Con-9.1%. 4.5%. 4.5% (using WT’s source not the Prof)
SNP-3.6%. 1.2%. 2.4%

CHUK and UKIP cancel each other out and I’m not sure how to apportion PC. The SNP data is also slightly out of date so may have moved.


Leave = 45.6%
Remain= 44.9%

Apols if maths are wrong as I’m doing this over breakfast but.....

(Also apols if the above table doesn’t translate to your device. I’m doing this on my phone)

[Which Tyler]

Total Leave. Remain
BP- 31.6% 31%. 0.6%
LD- 20.3%. 3%. 17.2%.
Lab-14.1%. 3.5%. 10.6%.
Gr- 12.1%. 2.4%. 9.6%
Con-9.1%. 4.5%. 4.5% (using WT’s source not the Prof)
SNP-3.6%. 1.2%. 2.4%

CHUK and UKIP cancel each other out and I’m not sure how to apportion PC. The SNP data is also slightly out of date so may have moved.


Leave = 45.6%
Remain= 44.9%

I get slightly different figures, but the conclusion is basically the same - absolutely nothing in it; less than voted for "other" quite possibly less than were turned away for being foreign despite being registered to vote.

EU votes.jpg

I went with giving CHUK and UKIP the same split as Brexit; and Plaid the same split as SNP - IIRC that "1/3 of SNP voters want to leave the EU was fromthe 2017GE. a] I'm not sure accurate a 1/3 that was; and b] I think that the SNP campaigned harder for remain this time than they did then, so along with the new-Farage party, I plumped on 30% for them as a decent approximation.

[Mellsblue]

So, in conclusion:
A) Spin from both sides that they have a mandate due to these results is BS.
B) Elections aren’t a good way of solving an issue unless all parties are single issue parties.
C) Neither the politicians nor us mere mortals have a solution
D) As a country we are no further forward on the issue than we were 3 years ago
E) People don’t read or, at best, ignore manifestos
F) We’re all doomed.

[Which Tyler]

Tory leadership just hotted up - this was always a possibility, but...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/c ... V2VJNgXdqY

Boris Johnson is to go on trial for allegedly “lying and misleading the British public” about the consequences of Brexit.

A judge summonsed the Conservative MP to appear in court after a man brought a private prosecution over claims that the cost of EU membership was £350m a week.

District Judge Margot Coleman threw out arguments by Mr Johnson’s lawyers that the case was a “vexatious” attempt to undermine the result of the 2016 referendum.

A written judgment handed down on Wednesday said: “Having considered all the relevant factors I am satisfied that this is a proper case to issue the summons as requested for the three offences as drafted.

“The charges are indictable only. This means the proposed defendant will be required to attend this court for a preliminary hearing, and the case will then be sent to the crown court for trial.”

[Mellsblue]

Tbh, we could do with reducing the number of candidates before the contest starts. It’s ridiculous and I believe there are still some waiting to declare.
The timing seems, um, convenient and a good 98% of politicians must now be soiling themselves.

[Which Tyler]

Tbh, we could do with reducing the number of candidates before the contest starts. It’s ridiculous and I believe there are still some waiting to declare.
The timing seems, um, convenient and a good 98% of politicians must now be soiling themselves.

This ones been rattling around for about 6 months now collecting cash, and going through due process - timing is May's (whether deliberate or not).
Agreed though, far too many candidates at the moment - I'm sure plenty of them know they have no chance whatsoever, but are using it to get some name recognition for a planned future run.
I'm pretty sure he'll be cleared (given that it was a non-binding election and thereofre not subject to the usual electoral rules - hence it hasn't laready been legally required to be re-run), but it's a distraction he really doesn't need

More leadership candidates than MEPs

[Mellsblue]

Tbh, we could do with reducing the number of candidates before the contest starts. It’s ridiculous and I believe there are still some waiting to declare.
The timing seems, um, convenient and a good 98% of politicians must now be soiling themselves.

This ones been rattling around for about 6 months now collecting cash, and going through due process - timing is May's (whether deliberate or not)
Agreed though, far too many candidates at the moment - I'm sure plenty of them know they have no chance whatsoever, but are using it to get some name recognition for a planned future run.

More leadership candidates than MEPs

Ah, ok. I wonder if Theresa’s donation tipped it over the threshold.
Any more and we’ll have more candidates than total votes last Thursday.

[Which Tyler]

Ah, ok. I wonder if Theresa’s donation tipped it over the threshold.
Any more and we’ll have more candidates than total votes last Thursday.

[Digby]

Jail doesn't bother Boris, at least it didn't in the case of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, so if he's consistent he'll probably make a faux pas which would extend any jail term he's handed for no good reason.

[Mellsblue]

Would love to see his testimony.

[Digby]

It would probably help if Boris was required to make any public comments under oath