Brexit delayed

[Sandydragon]

Did the mediator say McVey is an idiot? I’ve honestly no idea why she’s put herself forward. On the plus side, Leadsom’s campaign isn’t gaining any traction.

I don’t think she fully appreciates how lucky she was to get to th the last 2 a few years ago. Mind you if a few front runners shoot themselves in the foot again, who knows.

[Puja]

Esther McVey has made sure everyone's aware of what they'd be getting with her by sticking her oar into the Birmingham LGBT lessons and saying, "Parents Know Best!"

I shouldn't really have expected anything better from someone like her, but it's still depressing to think that this kind of stance will gain her support, not lose it.

Puja

She's another monster exposed to the sunlight by Brexit bollox.

Though I heard the 'mediator' appointed by the council earlier on, and he didn't sound like much of a mediator to me, basically said the protesting parent were idiots; and whilst that might be the case (and no idea of the ins and outs), its not a helpful public position for mediation purposes.

I saw that - I believe he has been mediating for nearly a month and has reached the end of his tether, both with the government cowardly avoiding saying anything that might look like they believe in the horrors of human rights and equality to avoid alienating some of their less charming supporters, and with the intransigent parents, who are totally not bigots and who are really upset that people keep calling them bigots, but who just want to prevent any mention that gay people exist in front of their children. I'd imagine his blood pressure isn't being helped by leadership hopefuls looking to score cheap not-bigot points by implying the school's looking to teach 3 year olds about anal penetration. It's probably Europe's fault and all those filthy human rights act nonsense that's been imposed upon us, making our children watch pornography in class because of "political correctness".

This of course, follows hard upon Dominic Raab's attempt to seize the low ground by declaring that feminism was sexism against men and he wants to protect children by making it harder to change your gender. I miss Teresa May already.

Puja

[Banquo]

Esther McVey has made sure everyone's aware of what they'd be getting with her by sticking her oar into the Birmingham LGBT lessons and saying, "Parents Know Best!"

I shouldn't really have expected anything better from someone like her, but it's still depressing to think that this kind of stance will gain her support, not lose it.

Puja

She's another monster exposed to the sunlight by Brexit bollox.

Though I heard the 'mediator' appointed by the council earlier on, and he didn't sound like much of a mediator to me, basically said the protesting parent were idiots; and whilst that might be the case (and no idea of the ins and outs), its not a helpful public position for mediation purposes.

I saw that - I believe he has been mediating for nearly a month and has reached the end of his tether, both with the government cowardly avoiding saying anything that might look like they believe in the horrors of human rights and equality to avoid alienating some of their less charming supporters, and with the intransigent parents, who are totally not bigots and who are really upset that people keep calling them bigots, but who just want to prevent any mention that gay people exist in front of their children. I'd imagine his blood pressure isn't being helped by leadership hopefuls looking to score cheap not-bigot points by implying the school's looking to teach 3 year olds about anal penetration. It's probably Europe's fault and all those filthy human rights act nonsense that's been imposed upon us, making our children watch pornography in class because of "political correctness".

This of course, follows hard upon Dominic Raab's attempt to seize the low ground by declaring that feminism was sexism against men and he wants to protect children by making it harder to change your gender. I miss Teresa May already.

Puja

Doesn't sound awfully well qualified to mediate, given he had a fixed opinion before he started though.Mediation is exactly about not being partial and keeping calm; I understand he's hacked off, but sounding off to the media does nothing to help the situation.

ETA- that said, I've just seen his self recorded clip, which was much more measured than what was on the radio. Manipulation indeed.

[Mellsblue]

If you can find the clip of Jess Philips talking to the protesters you’ll see what he’s had to deal with.

[Banquo]

If you can find the clip of Jess Philips talking to the protesters you’ll see what he’s had to deal with.

She's great. Don't agree with some of her positions, but she seems an authentic conviction politician, rather than this stream of clone corbynites who spout soundbites and bollocks.

Obviously its a tough gig for the mediator, but I was taken aback by what he said on the radio- possibly out of context.

[Banquo]

cough...no idea what this means, can Which and Mells get together and agree please
https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

[Puja]

cough...no idea what this means, can Which and Mells get together and agree please
https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

I don't know that your link has worked properly. Are you referencing this?



In which case, may I suggest this analysis as proof of what a shitty system FPtP is:



Farage might like to arrantly threaten violence in the streets, but I think there very much might be if Brexit gets 22% of the vote for 4 seats, especially with Lib Dems getting 70-odd for 24%.

Puja

[Banquo]

cough...no idea what this means, can Which and Mells get together and agree please
https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

I don't know that your link has worked properly. Are you referencing this?



In which case, may I suggest this analysis as proof of what a shitty system FPtP is:



Farage might like to arrantly threaten violence in the streets, but I think there very much might be if Brexit gets 22% of the vote for 4 seats, especially with Lib Dems getting 70-odd for 24%.

Puja

that is indeed perverse.

[Puja]

It is a very interesting set of figures though. SNP would go from 35 to 53 without a change in their vote share, because Lib Dems and Brexit would take from Labour and Conservative shares in Scotland and gift them more seats with the same votes. Likewise I'll bet that a lot of the Lib Dem gains would be at the hands of Labour, but Labour would then pilfer Conservative ones by dint of being in 2nd place in seats where the B(N)P got a chunk of the vote. Amazing that Labour's core is so concentrated that they would only lose 4 seats with 22% smaller vote share.

I wonder how a Remain pact would affect those figures - you'd have to think Green would stand a chance against Labour in Bristol and Norwich if Lib Dems and Change stood behind them and if the favour was returned, you'd think there was another 4-5 seats out there in the South West and university towns for the Lib Dems to turn over.

Puja

[Banquo]

It is a very interesting set of figures though. SNP would go from 35 to 53 without a change in their vote share, because Lib Dems and Brexit would take from Labour and Conservative shares in Scotland and gift them more seats with the same votes. Likewise I'll bet that a lot of the Lib Dem gains would be at the hands of Labour, but Labour would then pilfer Conservative ones by dint of being in 2nd place in seats where the B(N)P got a chunk of the vote. Amazing that Labour's core is so concentrated that they would only lose 4 seats with 22% smaller vote share.

I wonder how a Remain pact would affect those figures - you'd have to think Green would stand a chance against Labour in Bristol and Norwich if Lib Dems and Change stood behind them and if the favour was returned, you'd think there was another 4-5 seats out there in the South West and university towns for the Lib Dems to turn over.

Puja

its also interesting that Labour's potl vote has collapsed, given that their position on Brexit is much softer (well flabbier) than at the 2017 GE.

[Puja]

It is a very interesting set of figures though. SNP would go from 35 to 53 without a change in their vote share, because Lib Dems and Brexit would take from Labour and Conservative shares in Scotland and gift them more seats with the same votes. Likewise I'll bet that a lot of the Lib Dem gains would be at the hands of Labour, but Labour would then pilfer Conservative ones by dint of being in 2nd place in seats where the B(N)P got a chunk of the vote. Amazing that Labour's core is so concentrated that they would only lose 4 seats with 22% smaller vote share.

I wonder how a Remain pact would affect those figures - you'd have to think Green would stand a chance against Labour in Bristol and Norwich if Lib Dems and Change stood behind them and if the favour was returned, you'd think there was another 4-5 seats out there in the South West and university towns for the Lib Dems to turn over.

Puja

its also interesting that Labour's potl vote has collapsed, given that their position on Brexit is much softer (well flabbier) than at the 2017 GE.

Not surprising - they pulled a massive con trick in 2017 by facing both ways at once, avoiding talking about it wherever possible, and presenting an appearance of being pro-Remain in the south and an appearance of being pro-Leave in the north. Now that they actually have taken a position in the middle, it's unsurprising that they've lost from both sides.

Puja

[Banquo]

It is a very interesting set of figures though. SNP would go from 35 to 53 without a change in their vote share, because Lib Dems and Brexit would take from Labour and Conservative shares in Scotland and gift them more seats with the same votes. Likewise I'll bet that a lot of the Lib Dem gains would be at the hands of Labour, but Labour would then pilfer Conservative ones by dint of being in 2nd place in seats where the B(N)P got a chunk of the vote. Amazing that Labour's core is so concentrated that they would only lose 4 seats with 22% smaller vote share.

I wonder how a Remain pact would affect those figures - you'd have to think Green would stand a chance against Labour in Bristol and Norwich if Lib Dems and Change stood behind them and if the favour was returned, you'd think there was another 4-5 seats out there in the South West and university towns for the Lib Dems to turn over.

Puja

its also interesting that Labour's potl vote has collapsed, given that their position on Brexit is much softer (well flabbier) than at the 2017 GE.

Not surprising - they pulled a massive con trick in 2017 by facing both ways at once, avoiding talking about it wherever possible, and presenting an appearance of being pro-Remain in the south and an appearance of being pro-Leave in the north. Now that they actually have taken a position in the middle, it's unsurprising that they've lost from both sides.

Puja

i just find it interesting why they weren't rumbled by da yoof in 2017.

[Puja]

its also interesting that Labour's potl vote has collapsed, given that their position on Brexit is much softer (well flabbier) than at the 2017 GE.

Not surprising - they pulled a massive con trick in 2017 by facing both ways at once, avoiding talking about it wherever possible, and presenting an appearance of being pro-Remain in the south and an appearance of being pro-Leave in the north. Now that they actually have taken a position in the middle, it's unsurprising that they've lost from both sides.

Puja

i just find it interesting why they weren't rumbled by da yoof in 2017.

We're coming back round to my persistent thesis that the electorate is collectively dumb as shit and popular vote should not be treated like it has any real wisdom.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

It is a very interesting set of figures though. SNP would go from 35 to 53 without a change in their vote share, because Lib Dems and Brexit would take from Labour and Conservative shares in Scotland and gift them more seats with the same votes. Likewise I'll bet that a lot of the Lib Dem gains would be at the hands of Labour, but Labour would then pilfer Conservative ones by dint of being in 2nd place in seats where the B(N)P got a chunk of the vote. Amazing that Labour's core is so concentrated that they would only lose 4 seats with 22% smaller vote share.

I wonder how a Remain pact would affect those figures - you'd have to think Green would stand a chance against Labour in Bristol and Norwich if Lib Dems and Change stood behind them and if the favour was returned, you'd think there was another 4-5 seats out there in the South West and university towns for the Lib Dems to turn over.

Puja

its also interesting that Labour's potl vote has collapsed, given that their position on Brexit is much softer (well flabbier) than at the 2017 GE.

Not surprising - they pulled a massive con trick in 2017 by facing both ways at once, avoiding talking about it wherever possible, and presenting an appearance of being pro-Remain in the south and an appearance of being pro-Leave in the north. Now that they actually have taken a position in the middle, it's unsurprising that they've lost from both sides.

Puja

I wonder if Lab regret not taking May’s deal of WAB 4. There is no way for either the Cons or Lab to keep all their base happy, and therefore gain a majority, without Brexit being done and dusted.

If the EU election results were replicated in the next GE then BP would do ALOT better. Given there’s a very good chance that Brexit won’t be sorted by the next GE it could get interesting. As we now know, BP is the only single issue party, both in manifesto and voter base, that can materially effect results.

[Mellsblue]

Not surprising - they pulled a massive con trick in 2017 by facing both ways at once, avoiding talking about it wherever possible, and presenting an appearance of being pro-Remain in the south and an appearance of being pro-Leave in the north. Now that they actually have taken a position in the middle, it's unsurprising that they've lost from both sides.

Puja

i just find it interesting why they weren't rumbled by da yoof in 2017.

We're coming back round to my persistent thesis that the electorate is collectively dumb as shit and popular vote should not be treated like it has any real wisdom.

Puja

Given up on citizens assemblies yet, then?

[Which Tyler]

cough...no idea what this means, can Which and Mells get together and agree please
https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

We agreed last time didn't we? Fuck-all in it.

As for that latest poll. I read somewhere that B(N)P only became an option in the pool if they'd already hit "Other", which would probably increase their share in a straight poll (probably at the expense of conservative) - if correct.

As for the number of seats those percentages equate to. As said above, just shows how fucked up FPTP is.

[Puja]

i just find it interesting why they weren't rumbled by da yoof in 2017.

We're coming back round to my persistent thesis that the electorate is collectively dumb as shit and popular vote should not be treated like it has any real wisdom.

Puja

Given up on citizens assemblies yet, then?

Hey, my favoured option has always been a benign dictator, but they're hard to find.

Puja

[Banquo]

cough...no idea what this means, can Which and Mells get together and agree please
https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/

We agreed last time didn't we? .

It was the process I enjoyed the most

[Banquo]

i just find it interesting why they weren't rumbled by da yoof in 2017.

We're coming back round to my persistent thesis that the electorate is collectively dumb as shit and popular vote should not be treated like it has any real wisdom.

Puja

Given up on citizens assemblies yet, then?

yeah that's a gem. Fiona Bruce could be the equivalent of the speaker.

[Stones of granite]

It is a very interesting set of figures though. SNP would go from 35 to 53 without a change in their vote share, because Lib Dems and Brexit would take from Labour and Conservative shares in Scotland and gift them more seats with the same votes. Likewise I'll bet that a lot of the Lib Dem gains would be at the hands of Labour, but Labour would then pilfer Conservative ones by dint of being in 2nd place in seats where the B(N)P got a chunk of the vote. Amazing that Labour's core is so concentrated that they would only lose 4 seats with 22% smaller vote share.

I wonder how a Remain pact would affect those figures - you'd have to think Green would stand a chance against Labour in Bristol and Norwich if Lib Dems and Change stood behind them and if the favour was returned, you'd think there was another 4-5 seats out there in the South West and university towns for the Lib Dems to turn over.

Puja

I think that the SNP vote share is masked a bit by lumping it in with the UK figure. In the 2017 GE, the SNP dropped 13% to 37% in Scotland and lost 21 seats. The newest YouGov poll shows them regaining 7% to 44% and regaining 18 seats, so there is some degree of consistency when you throw in the other forecast changes:
SNP: 37% > 44%
SCUP: 29% > 19%
SLAB: 27% > 12%
SLD: 7% > 11%
Green: 0.2% > 6%
TBP: na > 7%

[Digby]

It is a very interesting set of figures though. SNP would go from 35 to 53 without a change in their vote share, because Lib Dems and Brexit would take from Labour and Conservative shares in Scotland and gift them more seats with the same votes. Likewise I'll bet that a lot of the Lib Dem gains would be at the hands of Labour, but Labour would then pilfer Conservative ones by dint of being in 2nd place in seats where the B(N)P got a chunk of the vote. Amazing that Labour's core is so concentrated that they would only lose 4 seats with 22% smaller vote share.

I wonder how a Remain pact would affect those figures - you'd have to think Green would stand a chance against Labour in Bristol and Norwich if Lib Dems and Change stood behind them and if the favour was returned, you'd think there was another 4-5 seats out there in the South West and university towns for the Lib Dems to turn over.

Puja

its also interesting that Labour's potl vote has collapsed, given that their position on Brexit is much softer (well flabbier) than at the 2017 GE.

Not surprising - they pulled a massive con trick in 2017 by facing both ways at once, avoiding talking about it wherever possible, and presenting an appearance of being pro-Remain in the south and an appearance of being pro-Leave in the north. Now that they actually have taken a position in the middle, it's unsurprising that they've lost from both sides.

Puja

Talking of facing two ways at once alongside the idea the Lib Dems could do some damage in the south west amuses when the Lib Dems in the south west are so often a very different party to the one you'd find in Richmond

[Mellsblue]

its also interesting that Labour's potl vote has collapsed, given that their position on Brexit is much softer (well flabbier) than at the 2017 GE.

Not surprising - they pulled a massive con trick in 2017 by facing both ways at once, avoiding talking about it wherever possible, and presenting an appearance of being pro-Remain in the south and an appearance of being pro-Leave in the north. Now that they actually have taken a position in the middle, it's unsurprising that they've lost from both sides.

Puja

Talking of facing two ways at once alongside the idea the Lib Dems could do some damage in the south west amuses when the Lib Dems in the south west are so often a very different party to the one you'd find in Richmond

Is this not true of all parties once you get above a certain % of the electorate? It’s why the Cons have been so enduring and why Blair was so successful, being everything to just enough people. Brexit, as divisive as it is, now makes that impossible.

[Digby]

Not surprising - they pulled a massive con trick in 2017 by facing both ways at once, avoiding talking about it wherever possible, and presenting an appearance of being pro-Remain in the south and an appearance of being pro-Leave in the north. Now that they actually have taken a position in the middle, it's unsurprising that they've lost from both sides.

Puja

Talking of facing two ways at once alongside the idea the Lib Dems could do some damage in the south west amuses when the Lib Dems in the south west are so often a very different party to the one you'd find in Richmond

Is this not true of all parties once you get above a certain % of the electorate? It’s why the Cons have been so enduring and why Blair was so successful, being everything to just enough people. Brexit, as divisive as it is, now makes that impossible.

Blair and the Tories do that with one message. The Lib Dems, and I say this as a long time member and supporter, as a consequence of being a much smaller party, being far less scrutinised, and despite their name not always worrying about democracy have run essentially entirely different campaigns/manifestos at times.

[Puja]

Talking of facing two ways at once alongside the idea the Lib Dems could do some damage in the south west amuses when the Lib Dems in the south west are so often a very different party to the one you'd find in Richmond

Is this not true of all parties once you get above a certain % of the electorate? It’s why the Cons have been so enduring and why Blair was so successful, being everything to just enough people. Brexit, as divisive as it is, now makes that impossible.

Blair and the Tories do that with one message. The Lib Dems, and I say this as a long time member and supporter, as a consequence of being a much smaller party, being far less scrutinised, and despite their name not always worrying about democracy have run essentially entirely different campaigns/manifestos at times.

Given an election right now, they're a single-issue party, just the same as the B(N)P. That 24% vote share has nothing to do with policies or personalities, but simply because they are the Remain party.

A friend of mine noted on seeing this poll that this kind of thing has a tendency to snowball with FPtP - if the Lib Dems are seen as credible, they'll rise higher in the polls, and thus become more likely challengers in more constituencies, which then makes them more credible and more likely to get votes. They could peel away a lot of the Labour vote if people think they could win in their constituency.

It could be a bloody mess if they end up with 100+ MPs, all facing different directions.

Puja

[Digby]

Is this not true of all parties once you get above a certain % of the electorate? It’s why the Cons have been so enduring and why Blair was so successful, being everything to just enough people. Brexit, as divisive as it is, now makes that impossible.

Blair and the Tories do that with one message. The Lib Dems, and I say this as a long time member and supporter, as a consequence of being a much smaller party, being far less scrutinised, and despite their name not always worrying about democracy have run essentially entirely different campaigns/manifestos at times.

Given an election right now, they're a single-issue party, just the same as the B(N)P. That 24% vote share has nothing to do with policies or personalities, but simply because they are the Remain party.

A friend of mine noted on seeing this poll that this kind of thing has a tendency to snowball with FPtP - if the Lib Dems are seen as credible, they'll rise higher in the polls, and thus become more likely challengers in more constituencies, which then makes them more credible and more likely to get votes. They could peel away a lot of the Labour vote if people think they could win in their constituency.

It could be a bloody mess if they end up with 100+ MPs, all facing different directions.

Puja

Maybe they're single issue, but if you're wondering where the 20% or so of Lib Dems who'd vote for Brexit are to be found you'd probably start looking in Cornwall. The good news is the more they rise in profile the more they'll get scrutinised