Talking of facing two ways at once alongside the idea the Lib Dems could do some damage in the south west amuses when the Lib Dems in the south west are so often a very different party to the one you'd find in Richmond
Is this not true of all parties once you get above a certain % of the electorate? It’s why the Cons have been so enduring and why Blair was so successful, being everything to just enough people. Brexit, as divisive as it is, now makes that impossible.
Blair and the Tories do that with one message. The Lib Dems, and I say this as a long time member and supporter, as a consequence of being a much smaller party, being far less scrutinised, and despite their name not always worrying about democracy have run essentially entirely different campaigns/manifestos at times.
Can’t say I agree. It’s not possible to get enough of the electorate by giving one message. You need to be a broad church and need a broad range of policies, well targeted, to achieve this.
Using your examples. Blair had relaxed with extreme wealth as long as they pay their (not particularly high) taxes mixed with a larger state, amongst other stuff. Cameron had austerity mixed with min wage (rebadged) and liberal stuff (hug a hoody, legalise gay marriage).
Digby wrote:
Blair and the Tories do that with one message. The Lib Dems, and I say this as a long time member and supporter, as a consequence of being a much smaller party, being far less scrutinised, and despite their name not always worrying about democracy have run essentially entirely different campaigns/manifestos at times.
Given an election right now, they're a single-issue party, just the same as the B(N)P. That 24% vote share has nothing to do with policies or personalities, but simply because they are the Remain party.
A friend of mine noted on seeing this poll that this kind of thing has a tendency to snowball with FPtP - if the Lib Dems are seen as credible, they'll rise higher in the polls, and thus become more likely challengers in more constituencies, which then makes them more credible and more likely to get votes. They could peel away a lot of the Labour vote if people think they could win in their constituency.
It could be a bloody mess if they end up with 100+ MPs, all facing different directions.
Puja
Maybe they're single issue, but if you're wondering where the 20% or so of Lib Dems who'd vote for Brexit are to be found you'd probably start looking in Cornwall. The good news is the more they rise in profile the more they'll get scrutinised
Puja, Lib Dem aren’t single issue, though. They’re clearly Remain but that isn’t single issue. Have you learned nothing
Diggers is correct. They’re very strong in a Brexit stronghold!
You’re point about critical mass in FPtP is spot on. If this poll actually turns in to reality, things are about to get even more interesting.
Mellsblue wrote:
Is this not true of all parties once you get above a certain % of the electorate? It’s why the Cons have been so enduring and why Blair was so successful, being everything to just enough people. Brexit, as divisive as it is, now makes that impossible.
Blair and the Tories do that with one message. The Lib Dems, and I say this as a long time member and supporter, as a consequence of being a much smaller party, being far less scrutinised, and despite their name not always worrying about democracy have run essentially entirely different campaigns/manifestos at times.
Can’t say I agree. It’s not possible to get enough of the electorate by giving one message. You need to be a broad church and need a broad range of policies, well targeted, to achieve this.
Using your examples. Blair had relaxed with extreme wealth as long as they pay their (not particularly high) taxes mixed with a larger state, amongst other stuff. Cameron had austerity mixed with min wage (rebadged) and liberal stuff (hug a hoody, legalise gay marriage).
Perhaps I judge them more harshly as I vote for them, but to me whilst yes you've got to appeal to as many as possible if you want a lot of votes and there's nothing wrong with a broad church anyway, the Dems have at times rather taken the piss, and gotten away with it 'cause who really cares about the Dems enough to cover them anyway?
Change UK are now back down to 5 MPs, as Heidi Allen, Chukka Umunna, Sarah Wollaston, Angela Smith, Luciana Berger, and Gavin Shuker have quit the party. No news on where they're going, but I would imagine to be independents as I doubt their previous homes would have them back.
Great job changing British politics for the better! Well done!
I remain unconcerned they've failed. if nobody was even trying that would worry me more, and I don't want nobody else to try. One merely hopes the next bunch, which might include some of the same people, do a better job of it.
I don't know that your link has worked properly. Are you referencing this?
In which case, may I suggest this analysis as proof of what a shitty system FPtP is:
Farage might like to arrantly threaten violence in the streets, but I think there very much might be if Brexit gets 22% of the vote for 4 seats, especially with Lib Dems getting 70-odd for 24%.
Puja
A shitty system indeed, and the one which has given us Brexit. Not completely convinced about those numbers though. Although I'm sure fptp will give the Tories and Labour a grotesquely disproportionate number of MPs, Brexit would do quite a bit better than 4. That website produces numbers from a swingometer but that's difficult to do if the party didn't exist last time.
Digby wrote:I remain unconcerned they've failed. if nobody was even trying that would worry me more, and I don't want nobody else to try. One merely hopes the next bunch, which might include some of the same people, do a better job of it.
Agreed - though they should always have gone and joined the lib dems, rather than forming their own party without any apparatus, to occupy a position slightly left of centre, opposing Brexit and preaching consensus politics; and bemoaning the lack of any exiting political party that did all of that.
I don't know that your link has worked properly. Are you referencing this?
In which case, may I suggest this analysis as proof of what a shitty system FPtP is:
Farage might like to arrantly threaten violence in the streets, but I think there very much might be if Brexit gets 22% of the vote for 4 seats, especially with Lib Dems getting 70-odd for 24%.
Puja
A shitty system indeed, and the one which has given us Brexit. Not completely convinced about those numbers though. Although I'm sure fptp will give the Tories and Labour a grotesquely disproportionate number of MPs, Brexit would do quite a bit better than 4. That website produces numbers from a swingometer but that's difficult to do if the party didn't exist last time.
Not sure, they don't seem to have localised support like the main parties do, instead it's a bit of a countrywide spread, which won't give results in the constituent based fptp we use.
If it weren't for the gerrymandering, Hungary's system would be quite good, I think.
Puja wrote:Change UK are now back down to 5 MPs, as Heidi Allen, Chukka Umunna, Sarah Wollaston, Angela Smith, Luciana Berger, and Gavin Shuker have quit the party. No news on where they're going, but I would imagine to be independents as I doubt their previous homes would have them back.
Great job changing British politics for the better! Well done!
Puja wrote:
I don't know that your link has worked properly. Are you referencing this?
In which case, may I suggest this analysis as proof of what a shitty system FPtP is:
Farage might like to arrantly threaten violence in the streets, but I think there very much might be if Brexit gets 22% of the vote for 4 seats, especially with Lib Dems getting 70-odd for 24%.
Puja
A shitty system indeed, and the one which has given us Brexit. Not completely convinced about those numbers though. Although I'm sure fptp will give the Tories and Labour a grotesquely disproportionate number of MPs, Brexit would do quite a bit better than 4. That website produces numbers from a swingometer but that's difficult to do if the party didn't exist last time.
Not sure, they don't seem to have localised support like the main parties do, instead it's a bit of a countrywide spread, which won't give results in the constituent based fptp we use.
If it weren't for the gerrymandering, Hungary's system would be quite good, I think.
Agreed, Brexit may not have the strongholds that Labour and Conservative have but it's support wouldn't be spread out uniformly as this kind of swingometer calculation (presumably) assumes. So it would do somewhat better*.
*if it continues to poll well after Brexit...which is (I hope) unlikely.
Puja wrote:Change UK are now back down to 5 MPs, as Heidi Allen, Chukka Umunna, Sarah Wollaston, Angela Smith, Luciana Berger, and Gavin Shuker have quit the party. No news on where they're going, but I would imagine to be independents as I doubt their previous homes would have them back.
Great job changing British politics for the better! Well done!
Puja
Interesting. I guess it will all become clear, but are these leavers the ones who want to join (or sort-of join) the Lib Dems, or is it what remains of Change UK? From their earlier comments it seemed that Umunna was less keen than Allen to have much to do with the Lib Dems.
Digby wrote:Boris is loud but with nothing to actually say, Raab is more Brexity than Brexit, and Gove is a coke fiend. Anyone surprised?
Boris is just a showman. Sadly that will probably be enough to win him the election as the membership (and MPs) will believe that he has enough personality to blitz Corbyn.
I like Rory Stewart, but its feel a bit early for him.
Digby wrote:Boris is loud but with nothing to actually say, Raab is more Brexity than Brexit, and Gove is a coke fiend. Anyone surprised?
Boris is just a showman. Sadly that will probably be enough to win him the election as the membership (and MPs) will believe that he has enough personality to blitz Corbyn.
I like Rory Stewart, but its feel a bit early for him.
I quite like Stewart too, but he was conveniently moved from the job at Prisons before he'd have had to resign for failing, and he's hardly proving gaffe proof now. Still, Boris is Trumpesque on the gaffe front and a well know consumer of drugs into the bargain, and he's doing sadly all too well
Boris vs Jeremy, it's enough to turn one to drink had I not already started for the day
Digby wrote:Boris is loud but with nothing to actually say, Raab is more Brexity than Brexit, and Gove is a coke fiend. Anyone surprised?
Boris is just a showman. Sadly that will probably be enough to win him the election as the membership (and MPs) will believe that he has enough personality to blitz Corbyn.
I like Rory Stewart, but its feel a bit early for him.
I quite like Stewart too, but he was conveniently moved from the job at Prisons before he'd have had to resign for failing, and he's hardly proving gaffe proof now. Still, Boris is Trumpesque on the gaffe front and a well know consumer of drugs into the bargain, and he's doing sadly all too well
Boris vs Jeremy, it's enough to turn one to drink had I not already started for the day
Jesus. I would normally say anything but Boris, but the thought of Hunt managing to fail upwards to lead the country makes my gorge rise.
Digby wrote:Boris is loud but with nothing to actually say, Raab is more Brexity than Brexit, and Gove is a coke fiend. Anyone surprised?
Boris is just a showman. Sadly that will probably be enough to win him the election as the membership (and MPs) will believe that he has enough personality to blitz Corbyn.
I like Rory Stewart, but its feel a bit early for him.
I quite like Stewart too, but he was conveniently moved from the job at Prisons before he'd have had to resign for failing, and he's hardly proving gaffe proof now. Still, Boris is Trumpesque on the gaffe front and a well know consumer of drugs into the bargain, and he's doing sadly all too well
Boris vs Jeremy, it's enough to turn one to drink had I not already started for the day
Maybe try something harder - it seems to be all the rage right now.
Incidentally, I sort of masochistically hope to see Corbyn vs Johnson in an election as the smear campaigns would be something else - I'm sure the number of dodgy photos and accusations around both is off the charts.
Boris has doubled down on his plan of a tax break for high earners by saying it would be funded with an increase in NI contributions. Literally taking from the poor to give to the rich - one can only stand up and applaud the bald honesty of the position.
Puja wrote:Boris has doubled down on his plan of a tax break for high earners by saying it would be funded with an increase in NI contributions. Literally taking from the poor to give to the rich - one can only stand up and applaud the bald honesty of the position.
Puja
He understands his audience. The Tory membership will lap this up.
Puja wrote:Boris has doubled down on his plan of a tax break for high earners by saying it would be funded with an increase in NI contributions. Literally taking from the poor to give to the rich - one can only stand up and applaud the bald honesty of the position.
Puja
and also fcks over Scotland (who can set own tax rates but not NI). I've never seen a party so utterly out of touch and sense.
Labour will mount a fresh bid to seize control of the Commons agenda to prevent the next Tory prime minister forcing through a no-deal Brexit.
The cross-party bid, led by Jeremy Corbyn, would see opposition MPs hijack the parliamentary timetable on 25 June, allowing them to introduce legislation to prevent the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.
It comes amid mounting fears a new Tory leader could try to force through a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, with several contenders vowing to leave on that date, with or without a deal.
Dominic Raab, the ex-Brexit secretary, provoked outrage when he mooted suspending parliament to prevent MPs from blocking Brexit.
I still can't quite my head around ANY MP actually suggesting it in the first place; we live in a truly weird political climate
Puja wrote:Boris has doubled down on his plan of a tax break for high earners by saying it would be funded with an increase in NI contributions. Literally taking from the poor to give to the rich - one can only stand up and applaud the bald honesty of the position.
Puja
and also fcks over Scotland (who can set own tax rates but not NI). I've never seen a party so utterly out of touch and sense.
It's classic Boris though, isn't it? It's a beautiful promise to the Tory membership (many of whom will be on large pensions and thus will benefit from the tax cut without having to pay NI), but once he's won, he'll put it off as a job for after Brexit and it'll be quietly forgotten about (or put to a vote which it won't win and he'll say he tried his best). Come an election, he'll be peddling whatever truth he needs to win that selection of voters, with previous promises all left in the past.
Puja wrote:Boris has doubled down on his plan of a tax break for high earners by saying it would be funded with an increase in NI contributions. Literally taking from the poor to give to the rich - one can only stand up and applaud the bald honesty of the position.
Puja
and also fcks over Scotland (who can set own tax rates but not NI). I've never seen a party so utterly out of touch and sense.
It's classic Boris though, isn't it? It's a beautiful promise to the Tory membership (many of whom will be on large pensions and thus will benefit from the tax cut without having to pay NI), but once he's won, he'll put it off as a job for after Brexit and it'll be quietly forgotten about (or put to a vote which it won't win and he'll say he tried his best). Come an election, he'll be peddling whatever truth he needs to win that selection of voters, with previous promises all left in the past.
Puja
oh yes, playing to 150000 for his own ambition. He's a c&nt and a traitor.
