How the draw favours the All Blacks and dooms England

[twitchy]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/rug ... ms-england


The All Blacks' bid to win a third straight Rugby World Cup has been helped by a favourable pool stage schedule that will allow them to "explode" into the quarterfinals while England face massive odds to win the tournament.

Analysis by The 1014 Rugby for Spark Sport suggests the 'pool curve' has a major impact at Rugby World Cups, and that teams who have increasingly difficult games prior to the quarterfinals never win the Rugby World Cup.


The All Blacks play the Springboks in their opening fixture and win, lose, or draw, they will get the chance to prepare for the knockout stages on their own terms by facing Canada, Namibia and Italy in their remaining pool stage fixtures.

England, by contrast, face Argentina and then France in their last two pool stage games, meaning they will be battered even before they meet either Wales, the Wallabies or Fiji in the win-or-go-home stages.


The All Blacks will also enjoy 27 days between their opening game against the Springboks and their quarterfinal, giving them the chance to train intensively and refine their tactics as they did in 2015.

At the previous Rugby World Cup, the All Blacks played Argentina in their first pool stage match and then had three easier games against Namibia, Georgia and Tonga.

That meant they had almost a month between the Argentina game and the quarterfinal against France, which they won 62-13.

According to 1014 Rugby, that sort of schedule represents the best 'pool curve' – and England face the exact opposite of that.

This year, England start with clashes against Tonga and the United States, and then their games get progressively harder as they approach the quarterfinals.

They play Argentina and then France, who have never failed to get to the knockout stages, in their final two pool C games.


There are similarities between this schedule and Ireland's in 2015.

Ireland's pool stage games at the last Rugby World Cup also increased in difficulty, with Joe Schmidt's side facing Italy and France in the final pool stage games.

Beset by injuries, they subsequently crashed out at the quarterfinal stage at the hands of a much fresher Argentina side.

Due to the schedule England will also likely have to win five tough matches in a row against Tier 1 opposition to win the tournament.

That is extraordinarily difficult in the context of a Rugby World Cup.

Other teams with a favourable 'pool curve' are Ireland, Wallabies, Wales and South Africa.

The Wallabies have their toughest two pool stage games first – against Fiji and Wales – and providing they can get out of the pool they should arrive at the quarterfinals in relatively good shape.

The same applies to Wales but Ireland's progress beyond the quarterfinals remains in doubt because they will play either the All Blacks or Springboks.

The 1014 Rugby team is also predicting trouble for Scotland in their final pool stage game, when they will face Japan.

The Scots have only four days of rest before that potentially crucial game, whereas the Rugby World Cup hosts will have had eight days of recovery to prepare.

If Scotland lose to Ireland in the opening pool A game, as World Rugby rankings suggest they will, they could be knocked out of the tournament by the Jamie Joseph/Tony Brown-coached Japanese side in the pool stage.

That would really set the cat among the pigeons and open up the possibility that Japan (and Joseph and Brown) could face the All Blacks in one quarterfinal.

[Oakboy]

Anyone surprised?

[Puja]

That's a load of old toot. It's like the extrapolations that the newspapers bring out every football world cup, to prove that this time it'll be England's turn because this happened last time. I remember when NZ's failure in 2007 was blamed on them having too easy a run in to the quarter finals which put them out of touch.

I'd say the only team that's got a particular advantage from the organisation of the pool fixtures is Japan and that's just about them having the most rest and no short turnarounds.

Puja

[fivepointer]

"Due to the schedule England will also likely have to win five tough matches in a row against Tier 1 opposition to win the tournament.

That is extraordinarily difficult in the context of a Rugby World Cup.

Other teams with a favourable 'pool curve' are Ireland, Wallabies, Wales and South Africa"

Yes, winning 5 on the bounce wont be easy but Argentina dont look a potent threat to me. easing your way into a tournament with 2 of your easier games is, I think, a very positive schedule.

And its not just NZ with that favourable curve. SA are just as well placed.

Ultimately the best team will win this thing.

[Digby]

It is what it is, there will be a fixture schedule at a WC

[Scrumhead]

That's a load of old toot. It's like the extrapolations that the newspapers bring out every football world cup, to prove that this time it'll be England's turn because this happened last time. I remember when NZ's failure in 2007 was blamed on them having too easy a run in to the quarter finals which put them out of touch.

I'd say the only team that's got a particular advantage from the organisation of the pool fixtures is Japan and that's just about them having the most rest and no short turnarounds.

Puja

Agreed. Winning five tier 1 games on the trot is a huge ask, but with the way our fixtures have been scheduled suits us IMO.

I think we’re better off ‘battle hardened’. I think there’s a lot to be said for momentum and if we win our group, I think there’s just as much chance Wales or Australia will be hindered by a lack of tough games leading up to a QF against us when we’ve hopefully built up a head of steam.

[Digby]

Key will surely be how well we can rotate the pack. basically if Sinckler plays too much that's an obvious problem, if Cole plays too much that might give other more immediate problems