England vs France - Back in White

[Puja]

I think I'd have broadly the same side again, although there is sore temptation to drop Farrell. He was utterly toilet, but I think he was dazed at the very least and it's a failure of our duty of care for him not to have gone off for an HIA. If he's fit, I'd give him another chance as I think our shape works better with him there rather than pushing Manu into 12. Interestingly, when Slade came on, it was at 12, rather than moving Manu.

I'd also be tempted to drop BillyV to the bench as a rocket (I think whoever suggested that for Argentina was right in retrospect), but I'm not thrilled about Curry starting at 8 and it'd be very harsh to drop Ludlam from the squad entirely. On the bench, I'd have Joseph over Slade, but that's personal preference. I'd also start Mako - if he's fit, then he needs game time, and if he's not, then we need to know now. I'd rest Marler altogether, as he has put in a hell of a shift so far and I'd want to give him maximum time to recuperate from the niggle he had.

So:
Mako
George
Sinckler
Itoje
Kruis
Curry
Underhill
BillyV

Youngs
Ford
May
Farrell
Tuilagi
Watson
Daly

Genge, LCD, Cole, Lawes, Ludlam, Heinz, Joseph, Nowell

Puja

[Scrumhead]

If Wilson is fit, I’d leave Billy out of the 23 entirely.

Privately, he needs a rocket up his ass. Publicly, the ankle knock means Eddie can leave him out without it being seen as ‘dropping’ him.

On current form, I think Wilson could well be better anyway TBH.

[Renniks]

Essentially, I'd be pretty happy with any combination (if all players are fit) that means that those not involved are:
Singleton, Genge, Francis, McConnochie

Not through any real fault of their own - Singleton and McConnochie haven't had opportunity, Genge and Francis aren't quite as good, IMHO

Oh, as long as he doesn't go bonkers and start playing Lawes at 6 or Nowell at 12

[Adam_P]

Essentially, I'd be pretty happy with any combination (if all players are fit) that means that those not involved are:
Singleton, Genge, Francis, McConnochie

Not through any real fault of their own - Singleton and McConnochie haven't had opportunity, Genge and Francis aren't quite as good, IMHO

Oh, as long as he doesn't go bonkers and start playing Lawes at 6 or Nowell at 12

Cant be worse than Farrell today, surely?

[Which Tyler]

Injuries aside, I'd suggest the same team as I suggested for yesterday.

1. Genge
2. George
3. Sinckler
4. Itoje
5. Kris
6. Ludlam
7. Underhill
8. Wilson

9. Heinz
10. Ford
11. May
12. Tuilagi
13. Joseph
14. Nowell
15. Watson

16. Cowan-Dickie, 17. MVunipola, 18. Cole, 19. Lawes, 20. Curry
21. Youngs, 22. Slade, 23. Daly

Rationale:
Mako would start IF he'd had more gametime yesterday
Marler needs a rest, especially after picking up a knock. QF is more important for him than this dead rubber.
I so wish we had a better option than Cole, ideally a 3rd THP in Japan (only ever needed 2 of Slade, Francis, Nowell and McConnochie)
Curry has played 240 minutes in 3 matches so far. My instinct is to start and aim to replace him, butnid rather not risk him having to play another 80.
Billy still needs a rocket, and possibly a rest; as mentioned above, a niggle gives a public excuse (as does rotation TBH)

Heinz is simply playing better than Young's
Farrell needs a rocket based on the RWC so far, and after yesterday, needs to go through RTP protocols. Again, the QF is more important for him than a dead rubber.
As ever, I wish Slade had 50 club matches at IC under his belt. At least Manu has been training there for England for the last year or so. Francis simply isn't one of our top 4 centres and shouldn't even be at the RWC
Nowell did enough to overtake Coka
Harsh to put Daly to the bench after his first good game at FB, but... he's still not a FB, and it's be even harsher to drop Watson. He and Curry are our only players to have played every minute so far.

[Oakboy]

I think the two essential starters are Singleton and Wilson.

Early QF qualification gives Jones the chance to get quality game time into Singleton. It really is crazy that he is an injury away from having to front up in a SF perhaps.

Wilson should start at 8 with Curry and Billy rested - even if it means Lawes at 6 for part of the game.

[Scrumhead]

I guess it depends how much emphasis we’re placing on winning this particular game. I’d prefer we go strong and make sure we get the win as a) I think momentum is important b) we haven’t really been tested so far and c) I’d rather face Australia in the QFs than Wales.

[Timbo]

Gonna a strong ref around the breakdown against the French. They all fancy themselves as turnover specialists, but a lot of it is pretty borderline.

[Digby]

Not too fussed on Oz Vs Wales, one harder to score against and one harder to defend against, seems much of a muchness

[Puja]

I mentioned on a thread in the GMB that I was baffled about pundits claiming the other half of the draw is easier. I'd far rather play Australia, as the Welsh always bring their A game vs us and I think their style doesn't suit us. And there's not a massive difference between NZ or South Africa in the semis.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

Rugby World Cup final more likely for Eddie Jones’s men if they lose

Alex Lowe, Deputy Rugby Correspondent, Tokyo


England’s chances of winning the World Cup will improve if they lose to Argentina or France over the next two weekends and finish second in pool C, according to statistical analysis conducted for The Times.

Wales’s victory over Australia on Sunday confirmed England’s two potential routes to the final in Yokohama on November 2. If England win the pool they expect to face Australia in the quarter-finals. Win that and they could be looking at a semi-final against New Zealand and a final against South Africa.

If England were to finish second in the pool, their probable route would be Wales in the last eight and then the Springboks before meeting the All Blacks in the final.

England’s chances of winning the World Cup are 14.5 per cent if they win the pool and 16.4 per cent if they finish second, according to a statistical model developed by Rugby Vision that simulated the tournament one million times.

Eddie Jones’s team are almost twice as likely to reach the final if they finish second in the pool (41.3 per cent compared with 22.8), on account of moving to the other side of the draw.


“The reason for this is simple: the fact that New Zealand will most likely be the semi-final opponents if England win pool C,” Simon Gleave, the head of sports analysis at Gracenote, said.

The Rugby Vision system, which calculates the expected score margin and probability of each team winning, was designed by Niven Winchester, a principal research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a senior fellow at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

The model is based on a bespoke ratings system, from 70 years of international results, placing more weight on recent matches and accounting for the relative strength of the opposition.

Before their win against Canada, New Zealand were given a 56.9 per cent chance of winning the World Cup, with England second favourites on 14.5 per cent, based on the probability that they will win pool C.

The algorithm used by Rugby Vision does not account for variables within the tournament such as weather or refereeing decisions, but it does reflect injuries and squad depth.

ENGLAND’S CHANCES
If they win their pool...
Semi-final 72.8%
Final 22.8%
Champions 14.5%

If they come second in pool...
Semi-final 67.8%
Final 41.3%
Champions 16.4%

Stats from Rugby Vision

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rugb ... -hrxqdghck

[twitchy]

I think both teams will rest players. We should have a (not so) gentlemanly agreement with the les bleus to play it like a pre season friendly.

[p/d]

Jones needs to put out his strongest team, whatever he thinks that is.

[francoisfou]

Eddie should rest his regulars and let the irregulars show us what they can do. Who knows, they may be called upon for the semis if players go down injured. His team has achieved the first hurdle and has qualified for the quarters so let some of the players put their feet up and get behind their team-mates.

[Puja]

Jones needs to put out his strongest team, whatever he thinks that is.

Eddie should rest his regulars and let the irregulars show us what they can do.

So, we're all in agreement, huh?

I'm on p/d's side - we need to keep the momentum going and we've had 9 days off, followed by 7 days between games from here on out, so there's no danger of burnout. Our best team should be on the pitch from now on.

Puja

[francoisfou]

Jones needs to put out his strongest team, whatever he thinks that is.

Eddie should rest his regulars and let the irregulars show us what they can do.

So, we're all in agreement, huh?

I'm on p/d's side - we need to keep the momentum going and we've had 9 days off, followed by 7 days between games from here on out, so there's no danger of burnout. Our best team should be on the pitch from now on.

Puja

Disagree! Why risk injuries to key players? They’re in QFs against a team that has also qualified and I don’t think the French’ll field their strongest side either. Their QF matches against Australia and Wales will be their priority. Having said that, I’d be quite pleased if Farrell were to be picked against the French so that the no 1 fly half has a match off!

[Digby]

Anyone not playing against France goes at minimum 14 days between games, and whilst you might want that for 2-3 players you can't rotate an entire side in that fashion

[fivepointer]

You might rest one or two players (at least not start them) but this is no time for a lot of changes to what you think is your best XV.

[Puja]

Jones needs to put out his strongest team, whatever he thinks that is.

Eddie should rest his regulars and let the irregulars show us what they can do.

So, we're all in agreement, huh?

I'm on p/d's side - we need to keep the momentum going and we've had 9 days off, followed by 7 days between games from here on out, so there's no danger of burnout. Our best team should be on the pitch from now on.

Puja

Disagree! Why risk injuries to key players? They’re in QFs against a team that has also qualified and I don’t think the French’ll field their strongest side either. Their QF matches against Australia and Wales will be their priority. Having said that, I’d be quite pleased if Farrell were to be picked against the French so that the no 1 fly half has a match off!

Might be famous last words if we get several injuries, but I'd regard momentum and fluency of combinations to be of far more concern for our quarter final chances than wrapping players in cotton wool.

Puja

[Scrumhead]

I agree. As I said earlier on, we haven’t really been tested. Our likely first choice XV laboured to a fairly unimpressive win over 14 men so I’d like to see us start with a very similar XV and then make wholesale substitutions in the 2nd half.

The only change I’d make to Puja’s team in the OP is Wilson (if fit) for Billy.

[richy678]

Billy is the conundrum here.

He is a big bloke, that apparently struggles to keep fit training (in an elite, international, well funded utilising modern sports science and psychology set up)??? and gets bored if he doesn't play every week.

He was clearly carrying a bad ankle and struggled with handling against Argentina. The handling is a factor of the conditions, admittedly.

We have all seen him have many games where picks and goes, makes yards and drags 3 or 4 opposition to the ground with him.

On the other hand we have two wing forwards seemingly playing very well that appear to be first choice, with a really robust and fearless youngster and a seemingly multi skilled, right place, right time, johnny on the spot type of player in Wilson as back up.

Only, our coach seems to like to pick a lumpy big unit of a number 8, but only bought one, leaving the normal understudy - Hughes, at home. This is after experimenting with Simmonds as a different tactic the previous season.

If Billy cannot be dynamic his body weight is dead weight. I absolutely agree that if we get ourselves so out scrummaged that we need an 8 to pick the ball out of the second row and make a metre and 10 seconds around the corner, a big bloke is better. At the moment we seem to be scrummaging ok - bar Gengey getting stuffed against Tonga.

Give Billy a rest against France. Play Wilson. Get Billy's ankle fixed and get in his head what he has to do.

[jngf]

Billy is the conundrum here.

He is a big bloke, that apparently struggles to keep fit training (in an elite, international, well funded utilising modern sports science and psychology set up)??? and gets bored if he doesn't play every week.

He was clearly carrying a bad ankle and struggled with handling against Argentina. The handling is a factor of the conditions, admittedly.

We have all seen him have many games where picks and goes, makes yards and drags 3 or 4 opposition to the ground with him.

On the other hand we have two wing forwards seemingly playing very well that appear to be first choice, with a really robust and fearless youngster and a seemingly multi skilled, right place, right time, johnny on the spot type of player in Wilson as back up.

Only, our coach seems to like to pick a lumpy big unit of a number 8, but only bought one, leaving the normal understudy - Hughes, at home. This is after experimenting with Simmonds as a different tactic the previous season.

If Billy cannot be dynamic his body weight is dead weight. I absolutely agree that if we get ourselves so out scrummaged that we need an 8 to pick the ball out of the second row and make a metre and 10 seconds around the corner, a big bloke is better. At the moment we seem to be scrummaging ok - bar Gengey getting stuffed against Tonga.

Give Billy a rest against France. Play Wilson. Get Billy's ankle fixed and get in his head what he has to do.

Post RWC apart from getting a new captain and 12 one of the first things I would recommend the selectors urgently need to address should be making England play in such a way that it can once more accommodate a faster, more athletic style of no.8 rather than solely relying on a later day ‘Deano’ style.

[Digby]

Just not seeing the conundrum around Billy. if he's not in our side the people most pleased will be the other team

[Stom]

BTW, can I just say how nice it is that we've hardly heard a peep from Shouty McShouty Face!

Very restrained.

And on the topic of Billy...if his performances are the talking point...then we're in a damn good place.

Of course I've been disappointed, I had him in my fantasy team! But he's still been good for us. It's just that he's

a) not been exceptional - we haven't played the game to use him to his full, to be fair
b) others have stepped up so he isn't the only person making yards
c) because of this, we've used him to drag in defenders and create holes elsewhere more than as a battering ram, and it's worked really nicely.

I doubt Underhill would have found the half-gaps he has without Billy having sucked the defenders away.

[Banquo]

Billy is the conundrum here.

He is a big bloke, that apparently struggles to keep fit training (in an elite, international, well funded utilising modern sports science and psychology set up)??? and gets bored if he doesn't play every week.

He was clearly carrying a bad ankle and struggled with handling against Argentina. The handling is a factor of the conditions, admittedly.

We have all seen him have many games where picks and goes, makes yards and drags 3 or 4 opposition to the ground with him.

On the other hand we have two wing forwards seemingly playing very well that appear to be first choice, with a really robust and fearless youngster and a seemingly multi skilled, right place, right time, johnny on the spot type of player in Wilson as back up.

Only, our coach seems to like to pick a lumpy big unit of a number 8, but only bought one, leaving the normal understudy - Hughes, at home. This is after experimenting with Simmonds as a different tactic the previous season.

If Billy cannot be dynamic his body weight is dead weight. I absolutely agree that if we get ourselves so out scrummaged that we need an 8 to pick the ball out of the second row and make a metre and 10 seconds around the corner, a big bloke is better. At the moment we seem to be scrummaging ok - bar Gengey getting stuffed against Tonga.

Give Billy a rest against France. Play Wilson. Get Billy's ankle fixed and get in his head what he has to do.

Post RWC apart from getting a new captain and 12 one of the first things I would recommend the selectors urgently need to address should be making England play in such a way that it can once more accommodate a faster, more athletic style of no.8 rather than solely relying on a later day ‘Deano’ style.

billy v=deano lol