England vs New Zealand - World Ranked #2 vs World Ranked #1

[Puja]

While I wouldn't say I'm confident in terms of expecting a win, I think we stand a pretty good chance here. We have the game to bother New Zealand, as we showed last November, and the rub of the green going the other way would see us getting a result. Unfortunately, we're likely to get Owens as the referee, but it could be a lot worse.

On the team, I watched the Australia match again and Daly has to go. Apart from Koroibete making him look stupid twice, I missed that Beale did the same to him in the first half - Daly actually tapped him with both hands on the hips as he went past, like he was playing touch rugby. Add that to his hesitations in clearing up at the back and New Zealand will target him. It's a risk to change, but I think it's a greater risk to stay the same.

Also unsurprisingly, I'd want Manu at 13 - not just so that we play our best fly-half, but also because we want to stress this New Zealand centre partnership and Manu is a player they will worry about. Best to use him properly rather than shove him in somewhere to accomodate other, weaker players.

Mako
George
Sinckler
Itoje
Lawes
Curry
Underhill
BillyV

Youngs
Ford
May
Farrell
Tuilagi
Nowell/Cokanasiga (depending on former's not-brokenness)
Watson

LCD, Marler, Cole, Kruis, Ludlam, Heinz, Slade, Daly


Puja

[Digby]

Mako
George
Sinckler
Itoje
Kruis
Watson
Curry
Billy V
Youngs
Ford
May
Farrell
Tuilagi
Watson
Daly

LCD
Marler
Cole
Lawes
Underhill
Heinz
Joseph
Cokanasiga

[Puja]

Mako
George
Sinckler
Itoje
Kruis
Watson
Curry
Billy V
Youngs
Ford
May
Farrell
Tuilagi
Watson
Daly

LCD
Marler
Cole
Lawes
Underhill
Heinz
Joseph
Cokanasiga

And here I thought I was being daring moving him to 15!

Puja

[Digby]

And here I thought I'd sobered up

[Danno]

I agree they'll target Daly, meaning Barrett will score at least two past him and as such, I have very little confidence.

We saw what happened to SA in the space of ~7 minutes - who had otherwise been dominant - that effectively have the All Blacks the win. Plus for the last I don't know how many years, we habitually give the ball back by kicking possession away from 9, 10, 15 and sometimes 13 whenever things slow down a bit (usually because of Youngs). Hansen is rubbing his hands with glee at that.

Compounding all that, I guarantee there's a clownshit selection in there that isn't Daly at 15. I'd happily put a fiver on Lawes in the 6 shirt, for example.

I really hope I'm wrong on every count and, going back to the starters/finishers nonsense, Eddie picks:

Marler
George
Sinckler
Itoje
Kruis
Curry
Underhill (I'm pretty furious that Wilson hasn't played, but here we are and these two are, happily, looking like first choice for a long, long time)
Billy
Youngs, I guess, only he's suddenly remembered he can play ala that little dart to the corner on Saturday
Ford
May
Farrell
Manu - the extra space at 13 makes him so much more dangerous that it means he is effectively wasted at 12
Nowell
Watson

Mako
LCD
Cole ffs. It's no less than we deserve.
Lawes
Ludlam. I'm hugely impressed with Ludlam's enthusiasm even if he still shows his rawness at times, and either Wilson's knee is still niggling or it's too little playtime this far in the tournament. We remain shafted if Billy breaks his third arm, but no less than we deserve.
Heinz. INLTWD.
Joseph - Slade looked amazing according to SCW, so fuck that for a risk.
Daly, but he's not allowed anywhere near FB. Wing cover, emergency 13 cover, maybe he can do May's job in the scrum and keep Mako lively in the last 10, but no playing 15.

[Puja]

Compounding all that, I guarantee there's a clownshit selection in there that isn't Daly at 15. I'd happily put a fiver on Lawes in the 6 shirt, for example.

Oh, don't say horrible things like that. I'm going to be worrying about that all week now.

Also, I have to say Cole has been pretty good this tournament. There's been no silly penalties, he's been solid in defence, and his scrummaging's been excellent. I especially enjoyed watching him crush Sio like a coke can yesterday. He's not a player to bring on to turn a game and his carrying is non-existent, but having an 18 who can come on and dominate scrums when the opposition are tiring is not to be sniffed at.

Puja

[Danno]

Compounding all that, I guarantee there's a clownshit selection in there that isn't Daly at 15. I'd happily put a fiver on Lawes in the 6 shirt, for example.

Oh, don't say horrible things like that. I'm going to be worrying about that all week now.

Also, I have to say Cole has been pretty good this tournament. There's been no silly penalties, he's been solid in defence, and his scrummaging's been excellent. I especially enjoyed watching him crush Sio like a coke can yesterday. He's not a player to bring on to turn a game and his carrying is non-existent, but having an 18 who can come on and dominate scrums when the opposition are tiring is not to be sniffed at.

Puja

Sorry Squire. I tend toward pessimism at the best of times and there's a few too many curveballs in Eddie's tenure against what I saw NZ do to Ireland yesterday.

If it helps at all I wholeheartedly agree with you when you said in an earlier thread that we 'have the game to trouble them'.
To undermine that I also agree that 'it depends on whether we decide to bring it'

If we manage this then please feel free to rub my nose in it like a Welshman on Grand Slam day.

Edit: yes, Cole has been solid, on reflection. Even if that is because I can't remember smacking my forehead at something he *has* done.

[Adam_P]

I'd go with exactly the same team as you Puja, although are there not question marks over May's fitness? Looked to pull up with a hammy towards the end on Saturday. Fingers crossed.

[Digby]

whenever things slow down a bit (usually because of Youngs). Hansen is rubbing his hands with glee at that.

I have issues with some of Youngs' passing technique, but he does receive some unduly harsh criticism imo. He is at the licence of other players getting our attack shape sorted and the ball presented, and that's not done consistently enough, and too it's not easy to play as Youngs is asked to and nail all your deliveries

[Oakboy]

What are the odds on Jones picking the same 23? I think the only change might be Nowell for Joseph on t he bench, fitness permitting.

Above everything, I do not want Farrell at 12 so I'd be happy with that.

It is too late to change Daly's possession of the 15 shirt. I would not have picked him there in the first place but he is there for this RWC.

[Puja]

I'd go with exactly the same team as you Puja, although are there not question marks over May's fitness? Looked to pull up with a hammy towards the end on Saturday. Fingers crossed.

I didn't see that myself - anyone else? I'd be very upset if he is out as he's one of our world class players.

Puja

[p/d]

Kruis for Lawes
JJ for Slade
We are stuck with Daly, so if fit Nowell to bench

[Scrumhead]

I'd go with exactly the same team as you Puja, although are there not question marks over May's fitness? Looked to pull up with a hammy towards the end on Saturday. Fingers crossed.

I didn't see that myself - anyone else? I'd be very upset if he is out as he's one of our world class players.

Puja

I didn’t see it either, but I’ve seen it mentioned in a few places now.

He did the same in one of the earlier games IIRC. Hopefully just a tweak.

[p/d]

I'd go with exactly the same team as you Puja, although are there not question marks over May's fitness? Looked to pull up with a hammy towards the end on Saturday. Fingers crossed.

I didn't see that myself - anyone else? I'd be very upset if he is out as he's one of our world class players.

Puja

Jones said: “He got a little bit of a twinge at the end so we thought we’d take him off, but we think he’ll be fine.”

[Danno]

whenever things slow down a bit (usually because of Youngs). Hansen is rubbing his hands with glee at that.

I have issues with some of Youngs' passing technique, but he does receive some unduly harsh criticism imo. He is at the licence of other players getting our attack shape sorted and the ball presented, and that's not done consistently enough, and too it's not easy to play as Youngs is asked to and nail all your deliveries

I get that, but all too often he's caught napping at ridiculous moments so he doesn't help himself.

The last 6N he failed get to the ball away from a stationary maul on two occasions in the same game and we were turned over right away as a result. The petulant pass into an opposition player in the warmups. The step, or two, sometimes three before he passes. Every. Damn. Time.

Some arsehole in ~2012 told him to think about what he's doing in a match and it ruined him. I want the 9 shirt and the 21 shirt on new (or newish) SHs as soon as this cup is done, and Youngs needs to play out of his skin to get a shot at even an Eddie Jones third choice SH berth, which is clearly never. Given how often our attack is stymied by his indecision and/or a pass to someone's toes, I don't think it's unduly harsh as that is literally what he's there to do. Just imagine what our backs could do with a Nakame style SH.

[Digby]

What he's there to do is kick, and he (mostly) does that well. Leaving aside the team often aren't ready for him to pass if you're scanning the backfield as a 9 it's bloody hard to also have the attention on the ruck you'd want as a 9 and that makes clearing quickly really hard. Youngs does have problems with his passing, but I do think some of the issues that face him are unfairly overlooked

I can't think of a 9 who clears quickly from the base and kicks well as a norm in open play. You can do one or the other

[Lizard]

The general view in NZ is that the semi will be a sterner test than any potential Final for the All Blacks.

Expect an unchanged 23 except possibly Frizell for Todd if the latter is injured.

[ad_tigger]

The general view in NZ is that the semi will be a sterner test than any potential Final for the All Blacks.

Expect an unchanged 23 except possibly Frizell for Todd if the latter is injured.

And hence the expected margin of victory is less than 30 points?

[fivepointer]

Oh I'm sure NZ will get closer to us than that.

Teamwise I'm pretty sure we'll go again with the same starting XV. Might see a tweak or two on the bench.

[Which Tyler]

Every rose has it's thorn


Unfortunately, it may be a thorn in our own side.

On paper, it ought to be close, with a victory to NZ by >7

In reality though England have done what's necessary, but haven't been great.
The tight 5 + flankers are fine, complete with options (but please no Lawes at 6).
Billy is struggling for form; and is yet to find it - he's not been bad, but we need world class performances from our world class players - and he hasn't shown it yet.

Then we get to our more dodgy players. Youngs is Youngs is Youngs, and we all know about that. Then we don't know what our best midfield is, either in attack or defence. At the back, we've a FB who's a world class player, with dodgy form, and is unconvincing at the role of FB.
In the backs we need to maximise both our attack and defence. Which means that Ford has to start, and may mean that Joseph has to start. Then it's a choice of Farrell or Manu for IC - which is a genuinely tough call to make, Farrell is probably the better IC, but Manu is definitely the better centre. We would probably go with Ford Farrel Manu, and leave JJ on the bench, but it feels wrong to have our defensive lynchpin benching (but then, it also feels wrong to bench Manu, whilst captain iceman is undroppable for no obvious reason). Slade needs to watch from the stands - sorry, this RWC came a month too early for him, and he's been a real weak point, and doesn't have enough credit in the bank to overcome his form.
If we want a world class performance from Daly, we have to play him on the wing or bring him off the bench. The ABs will exploit his position, his head-on defence and his aerial abilities like no-one else in rugby; but his versatility should mean that he and Watson can swap about as the play dictates anyway (though we've yet to really see this). Watson's no as good at playing rugby as Daly, but he is better at playing FB.

MVunipola, George, Sinkler
Itoje, Kruis
Curry, BVunipola (8), Underhill

Youngs, Ford
Farrell, Tuilagi
May, Watson (15), Daly

Marler, LCD, Cole, Lawes, Wilson
Heinz, Joseph, Nowell/Coka

[Oakboy]

I think that if Kruis had started last Saturday we would have been at least two scores down after 15 minutes. Who knows if we would have won then. Lawes was the most effective tackler amidst the general desperation. He is far quicker than Kruis. Jones had their respective roles spot-on, IMO.

[Mikey Brown]

Yep. I thought that was mistake but Lawes was fantastic in that opening 20 when Aus seemed to be constantly on the attack.

NZ are unlikely to play like that though and will target our set piece more, so it’s a tougher call.

[Stom]

I think that if Kruis had started last Saturday we would have been at least two scores down after 15 minutes. Who knows if we would have won then. Lawes was the most effective tackler amidst the general desperation. He is far quicker than Kruis. Jones had their respective roles spot-on, IMO.

I completely agree...

For the opposition.

NZ are a different kind of beast to Aus. Their locks are excellent, their front row are actually good, and they use them.

Kruis' extra oomph and tight game might be just what's needed against them.

[Puja]

I think that if Kruis had started last Saturday we would have been at least two scores down after 15 minutes. Who knows if we would have won then. Lawes was the most effective tackler amidst the general desperation. He is far quicker than Kruis. Jones had their respective roles spot-on, IMO.

On the flip side, Kruis is better in the lineout and I'm not convinced that Lawes doesn't cause problems getting the ball back at scrums - it seems to get caught under his feet a lot. Plus, there is the 55 minute CGS routine, which is to bring him on at 25 and let his energy and tackling turn the tide of a game/cement our dominance.

Hard one to call.

Puja

[Mr Mwenda]

I think i'd drop daly altogether. He looks out of sorts and i don't think going to wing will fix it immediatly. It's a shame but i think the reasons for the position-switch gamble were sound. I wouldn't be surprised if he's carrying a niggle or something.