COVID19

[Digby]

Meanwhile, intensive care outcomes look pretty bad- not sure if there is a comparator out there? It could well be folks are being admitted too late.

And in worse news admissions for things like heart attacks are way way down, which means people aren't getting the much simpler treatment now following chest pains and we're just storing up problems

[Digby]

Look, if you said I'd misunderstood one of your posts, I'd read it.
If you want to have an honest discussion, my post is near the bottom of page 12.

You’ve repeatedly misunderstood my posts or just ignored points.
I am having an honest discussion. It’s not really been possible when you continue to insist all countries have exactly the same issues when battling the spread of the disease, despite this not being the case, when you jump to definite conclusions despite us being at the very start of this fight and using the Chinese Communist Party as some some sort of model to follow.
I’ll leave it here.

Okay, we disagree.
My feeling is that you are refusing to draw any conclusions which suggest we could be doing things substantially better, regardless of the evidence, because of some differences between the UK (or the West) and South Korea. China is a red herring, since everything I'm arguing for is being done by democratic South Korea.
I’ll leave it here.

I'm guessing there's quite a number of things about South Korea you wouldn't like. My impression isn't that you're over on the right of the Tory party with the likes of Mogg

[Banquo]

Meanwhile, intensive care outcomes look pretty bad- not sure if there is a comparator out there? It could well be folks are being admitted too late.

And in worse news admissions for things like heart attacks are way way down, which means people aren't getting the much simpler treatment now following chest pains and we're just storing up problems

yep, I mentioned that before, ditto strokes. There will be some upside with people not wasting others time in a and e and with GPs. Also in order to clear beds, all electives have been cancelled, so there will be a huge backlog in eg hip replacements and many other areas. It'll take a long, long time to catch up.

[Galfon]

And in worse news admissions for things like heart attacks are way way down, which means people aren't getting the much simpler treatment now following chest pains and we're just storing up problems

Paediatrics & Ante-natal units too - the fear factor with Covid is having real ripple-out impact on lives.

[Banquo]

And in worse news admissions for things like heart attacks are way way down, which means people aren't getting the much simpler treatment now following chest pains and we're just storing up problems

Paediatrics & Ante-natal units too - the fear factor with Covid is having real ripple-out impact on lives.

Its not just fear factor though, its folks trying to be more responsible about using the NHS. One hopes that both continues and is balanced out a bit.

[Mellsblue]

It'll take a long, long time to catch up.

In so many sectors of society. The effects of this will be us for a very long time.

[morepork]

Ideally, in a cold hearted clinical context we would like to plot total deaths for this time of year against deaths during the onset of community virus spread (again differences in testing are a confound) in a population that has resisted social distancing. An unethical experiment variable yes, but it would sort the argument out. Would require transparency in normal data. All this globalism and no reliable commonly accessible data base. We really do fuck ourselves with the long fetid dick of the free market don’t we?

We're never going to be able to do double-blind, randomized controlled studies on this. As you say, a little unethical. We can only do our best to get comparable numbers. If we don't make some assumptions it will be impossible to compare anything.

I think we could if compelled. There are randomized blinded clinical trials going on right now.

[morepork]

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582

[Sandydragon]

You’ve repeatedly misunderstood my posts or just ignored points.
I am having an honest discussion. It’s not really been possible when you continue to insist all countries have exactly the same issues when battling the spread of the disease, despite this not being the case, when you jump to definite conclusions despite us being at the very start of this fight and using the Chinese Communist Party as some some sort of model to follow.
I’ll leave it here.

Okay, we disagree.
My feeling is that you are refusing to draw any conclusions which suggest we could be doing things substantially better, regardless of the evidence, because of some differences between the UK (or the West) and South Korea. China is a red herring, since everything I'm arguing for is being done by democratic South Korea.
I’ll leave it here.

I'm guessing there's quite a number of things about South Korea you wouldn't like. My impression isn't that you're over on the right of the Tory party with the likes of Mogg

It’s fair to call South Korea a democracy, but it’s not that long ago that it was a very authoritarian state and democracy isn’t as built in as it is in other countries. Add to that their experience from SARS and you have a populace who don’t need much convincing.

Even now in the UK there are people who suggest the lockdown is causing more damage that covid would. An earlier shutdown may not have had the public support that the governments current policy has.

[Mellsblue]

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582

That’s very informative, thank you. My biggest take, and there’s loads to take from that, is that your response is all about balancing the effects of your actions. Everything you do has a negative and a positive, it’s a case of weighing it all up and making a decision as best you can. It also proves that this ain’t over until the geeks in the labs work their magic.
All that said, I’m not sure that a report authored by Dick Hatchett and published by pnas isn’t just a massive wind up.

[morepork]

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582

That’s very informative, thank you. My biggest take, and there’s loads to take from that, is that your response is all about balancing the effects of your actions. Everything you do has a negative and a positive, it’s a case of weighing it all up and making a decision as best you can. It also proves that this ain’t over until the geeks in the labs work their magic.
All that said, I’m not sure that a report authored by Dick Hatchett and published by pnas isn’t just a massive wind up.

How old are you?

[Mellsblue]

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582

That’s very informative, thank you. My biggest take, and there’s loads to take from that, is that your response is all about balancing the effects of your actions. Everything you do has a negative and a positive, it’s a case of weighing it all up and making a decision as best you can. It also proves that this ain’t over until the geeks in the labs work their magic.
All that said, I’m not sure that a report authored by Dick Hatchett and published by pnas isn’t just a massive wind up.

How old are you?

Clearly, not old enough.

[morepork]

Just couldn't help slipping it in could you.

[Mellsblue]

Just as long as I withdraw it early enough.

[morepork]

With my user name and the direction of these puns, your withdrawal could be argued casting pearls before swine.


Too much?

[Mellsblue]

Given I love (I’m keeping this typo) in N Yorkshire my fellow little Englanders will not be surprised of my need to withdraw from farm stock.

[morepork]

I bet you tell all the pigs that.

[Banquo]

Get a sty, boys

[morepork]

Get a sty, boys

Spit roast?

There’s plenty of room hon.

[morepork]

Good skilz Brazil:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52251342


Meanwhile on Friday, President Bolsonaro hit the streets of the capital Brasília, drawing crowds and greeting followers. In his latest act of disregard for his own government's recommendations of social distancing, he took pictures with supporters and shook hands.

What a wanker.

[Galfon]

After being held up as an alternative, Sweden is looking like there could be problems there..

It could be in the reporting - odd.(just 17 in a day)

[Banquo]

Get a sty, boys

Spit roast?

There’s plenty of room hon.

cheerfully declined

[Digby]

After all the above which frankly as a bunch of statements I think anyone would find hard to swallow there's some good news, parliament is on the way back, it'll be going virtual from 21st April

[Sandydragon]

After all the above which frankly as a bunch of statements I think anyone would find hard to swallow there's some good news, parliament is on the way back, it'll be going virtual from 21st April

Wish I’d bought shares in Zoom.

Maybe speaking one at a time and having to put a hand up for the speaker to allow them to speak will create a less childish parliament.

We can but hope.

[Lizard]

Looks like we've finally found something other that dairy-based primary produce and Rugby Union Football to be good at: