Wales' tour of NZ

[cashead]

Hang on, looks like they've lost Lydiate for the tour - hamstring and possibly busted AC joints in the shoulder.

[Lizard]

Assuming that Shag goes for the same squad size and split as Wales* then we’re looking at something like the below. First-named are my starting XV:

3 Hookers
Coles
Taylor
Elliott

6 Props
Tu’ungafasi
O Franks
Moody
Faumuina
Crockett
Hohneck

4 locks
Retallick
Whitelock
Romano
Tuipolotu

6 loosies
Kaino
Cane
Read
Luatua
A. Savea
Dixon

3 half backs
Smith
Weber
Perenara

3 1st 5/8
Cruden
Barrett
Sopoaga

4 mid-field
Ngatai
Fekitoa
Crotty
Moala

6 back three
J Savea
B Smith
McKenzie
Dagg
Naholo
Li

There is no way Shag wants to be responsible for losing our spotless home record against the Village Idiots. I don’t think we will see many bolters or “development” selections.

Hookers basically pick themselves. Elliott is a steady third option.

Loosehead is pretty open – there’s no outstanding candidate. Moody is perhaps better on the bench due to versatility. Crockett has had enough chances without ever appearing to be up to becoming a true frontline All Black so I’d give Tu’ungafasi a shot based on form, with Crockett in the squad as plan B.

Tighthead – O for Awesome Franks, no contest. Faumuina’s work in the loose is pretty phenomenal. Hohneck is a bit of a development pick but To’omaga-Allan has had his chances and not taken them.

Locks – the starting two go without saying as the best pairing in international rugby. I think Shag will show loyalty to Romano but Tuipulotu, Bekhuis and even Blade Thomson are putting their hands up. Bird might suffer from being part of a recently poor Chiefs pack.

Loosies – Again, the real story is in the non-starting players. I’d say Ardie has had the quiet nod before pulling out of the 7s. Vito will be on the outer having signed overseas. Specialist 8 cover won’t be likely hence Luatua.

Half backs – no real argument, surely? Hall isn’t there yet and Ellis is yesterday’s man (first name on the injury back-up list though).

1st 5/8 – Cruden is the incumbent. I don’t think we will see him and Sopoaga in the same match-day 23. Hansen has been pretty clear that he likes a 1st five/FB on the bench like Barrett. Lima will be the back up starting 1st 5/8. McKenzie (named in back 3) is the back up versatile bench player. Ihaia West has picked a poor time to exist (where are his grandparents from?)

Mid-field – a new era. Fekitoa has been earmarked for a while and Ngatai’s form demands inclusion given the absence of clearly superior alternatives on either class or form. Crotty is uninspiring but necessary to have experience on the bench in case the wheels get a bit wobbly. The fourth spot is wide open – Tamanivalu or Fonotia could just as easily get the nod.

Back three – a tricky exercise in discarding talent and achieving balance. There will be room for only two “size and power” wings in the wider squad. Savea obviously, and Naholo is in better form than Patrick Osborne although both could do the job. With Milner-Skudder out, a more agile player is needed on he other wing and Ben Smith is the obvious candidate, thus making room for the one true bolter, Damian McKenzie, at full back. We then need two back-up FB/wingers. Dagg is a safe choice (Jane hasn’t quite shown he’s back at his best) which leaves one “form” pick. Lowe has been great for the Chiefs but I just get the sense that he’s not test class. McNicholl has done a job but has sealed his fate by signing overseas. That really only leaves Tevita Li who has some real touches of class but hasn’t yet put it all together.

*He might not, given the various players able to cover two or more of 1st five/FB/wing or loose forward/lock

So I wasn't too far off.

Harris instead of Elliott as 3rd hooker.

Only 5 props named. I was right about the LH trio, but Tu'ungafasi will cover TH as we'll so Hohneck doesn't get his shot.

4 from 4 locks.

Only 1 loosies pick wrong - Squire picked where I'd got Luatua.

Half backs: TKB is called up despite not bring back from injury, no third player at all. I'm a bit surprised that Perenara and Webber were overlooked.

Bang on with my 10 pics.

The mid-field is much as I predicted. Tamanivalu is in over Moala, but I did note he was also on the fringes.

I predicted Dagg's come back, along with the selection of Naholo and McKenzie.

Looks like I wasn't far off the money on Moala - he's been called up as injury cover while Ngatai struggles with a head knock.

[Lizard]

Also, TKB is doubtful for the first test with his broken hand. Makes you wonder why they named him at all - possibly Hansen trying to fox Gats?

[zer0]

I dare say he's just playing the rules to have an extra guy in the squad. The Fuzz are tricky like that.

[zer0]

Lizard's Shield ramblings have reminded me that, yes, the Taffs will be playing for the Raeburn Shield. If I have my dates right, then the All Blacks haven't lost a home defence since the Convicts were charged with breaking and entering on August 18th, 1990.

EDIT: No. Missed South Africa in 2008.

[morepork]

Also, TKB is doubtful for the first test with his broken hand. Makes you wonder why they named him at all - possibly Hansen trying to fox Gats?

It's like Mastermind.

[Mikey Brown]

I feel like the kindest thing you could do for Wales is giving them an absolute hammering in all 3 games. Though id be concerned that might prompt them to change tack and use their good players more effectively.

[Lizard]

I feel like the kindest thing you could do for Wales is giving them an absolute hammering in all 3 games. Though id be concerned that might prompt them to change tack and use their good players more effectively.

Doing that hasn't seemed to help them in the past.

The average score in an All Blacks v Wales test match in NZ is 40.6 - 6.6.

Wales highest score in such fixtures is 12* while NZ's lowest is 19**.



*2nd test, 1969. This would have been 16 under modern scoring, while the 33 conceded would have been 39.
**1st test 1969. Would have been 27 under modern scoring, the conceded score would have remained nil.

[Mikey Brown]

► Show Spoiler

I feel like the kindest thing you could do for Wales is giving them an absolute hammering in all 3 games. Though id be concerned that might prompt them to change tack and use their good players more effectively.

Doing that hasn't seemed to help them in the past.

The average score in an All Blacks v Wales test match in NZ is 40.6 - 6.6.

Wales highest score in such fixtures is 12* while NZ's lowest is 19**.



*2nd test, 1969. This would have been 16 under modern scoring, while the 33 conceded would have been 39.
**1st test 1969. Would have been 27 under modern scoring, the conceded score would have remained nil.

Right you are. Doesn't make great reading. You seem like the kind of man who would know, have Scotland ever got closer? I feel like we may have, somehow.

[cashead]

Right you are. Doesn't make great reading. You seem like the kind of man who would know, have Scotland ever got closer? I feel like we may have, somehow.

Yep.

Scotland's highest score in New Zealand was 31 in 1996 (they lost that test 62-31). The Scots have kept the margin to single digits on two occasions - 1981 and 1990 (11-4 and 21-18 to the home team respectively - the loss in 1990 also saw the Scots score more tries than the ABs, at 2 tries to 1). The smallest losing margin for the Welsh in New Zealand is 19, on two occasions (1969 where they lost 19-0 and 2010 when they lost 29-10).

[zer0]

Right you are. Doesn't make great reading. You seem like the kind of man who would know, have Scotland ever got closer? I feel like we may have, somehow.

To use Lizards measures:

The average score in an All Blacks v Scotland test match in NZ is 37.2 - 13.3.

Scotland's highest score in such fixtures is 31 while NZ's lowest is 11.

[Lizard]

Indeed.

The average score for the All Blacks v Scotland in NZ is a relatively gentle 37.2-13.3. Although they first toured 6 years after the Welsh, they have played here more often.

On the other hand, Wales have had three home wins v NZ whereas Scotland has only mustered two draws.

[Mellsblue]

The average score in an All Blacks v Wales test match in NZ is 40.6 - 6.6.

Blimey, that is ridiculous.

[Lizard]

The average score in an All Blacks v Wales test match in NZ is 40.6 - 6.6.

Blimey, that is ridiculous.

To be fair, that is from only 7 games, 2 of which were 50 point thrashings of the league-ravaged 1988 side.