All Blacks v Wales II: The Decider?

[Lizard]

Given the carnage caused last night, and the score line achieved by a misfiring All Blacks team in the first test, many people are predicting a massacre.

I'm not so sure. Wales are a proud team and have a lot to prove. Wales know that their starting XV have the skills to break the New Zealand defence. If Gatland can convince them not to go back into their shell and maintain the ambition shown in round 1, or might take a while for the All Blacks to gain any ascendancy.

[J Dory]

If there is any team that I want to beat NZ it is Wales.

[Len]

If there is any team that I want to beat NZ it is Wales.

No.

[J Dory]

Pussy

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Given the carnage caused last night, and the score line achieved by a misfiring All Blacks team in the first test, many people are predicting a massacre.

I'm not so sure. Wales are a proud team and have a lot to prove. Wales know that their starting XV have the skills to break the New Zealand defence. If Gatland can convince them not to go back into their shell and maintain the ambition shown in round 1, or might take a while for the All Blacks to gain any ascendancy.

It will be a massacre. The shock value in the welsh actually passing the ball has gone, so the ABs will concede fewer points. The ABs won't spend the first half droppig the ball at every opportunity so will score more points. The likes of Jamie Roberts and Taulupe Faletau who turned out v the Chiefs will be knackered as well.

[Mellsblue]

Can't see anything other than a hammering, unfortunately.

[Epaminondas Pules]

Losing North is huge for Wales. He caused no end of problems last week and made Savea look terrible in defence, which he isn't. Hard to see them making such inroads this week. All depends on the start. If Wales get their tails up it could be close for 40/50 mins, or you could muller them from the off.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Losing North is huge for Wales. He caused no end of problems last week and made Savea look terrible in defence, which he isn't. Hard to see them making such inroads this week. All depends on the start. If Wales get their tails up it could be close for 40/50 mins, or you could muller them from the off.

Even if it's close for 50 minutes, the ABs can score at such a rate that they ae capable of putting on a point a minute thereafter.

[Epaminondas Pules]

Losing North is huge for Wales. He caused no end of problems last week and made Savea look terrible in defence, which he isn't. Hard to see them making such inroads this week. All depends on the start. If Wales get their tails up it could be close for 40/50 mins, or you could muller them from the off.

Even if it's close for 50 minutes, the ABs can score at such a rate that they ae capable of putting on a point a minute thereafter.

Oh absolutely and the more broken the game gets the better for them as they'll expose the gaps and execute.

[Len]

If Wales want to break a 63 year record they're going to have to play for more than 63 minutes

[Len]

I kinda hope we bum them.

[Puja]

Given the carnage caused last night, and the score line achieved by a misfiring All Blacks team in the first test, many people are predicting a massacre.

I'm not so sure. Wales are a proud team and have a lot to prove. Wales know that their starting XV have the skills to break the New Zealand defence. If Gatland can convince them not to go back into their shell and maintain the ambition shown in round 1, or might take a while for the All Blacks to gain any ascendancy.

It will be a massacre. The shock value in the welsh actually passing the ball has gone, so the ABs will concede fewer points. The ABs won't spend the first half droppig the ball at every opportunity so will score more points. The likes of Jamie Roberts and Taulupe Faletau who turned out v the Chiefs will be knackered as well.

As above. Having to play first teamers in the midweek game has really screwed them and I could see the scoreline getting really ugly.

Puja

[morepork]

Ardie over piggy-eyes Cane?

[J Dory]

i hope Sopoaga get's a start.

[cashead]

Luke Romano drops out of the 23, replaced with Sam Whitelock who sat out the Eden Park test with a hamstring injury. Patrick Tuipulotu retains his bench spot after a strong cameo last weekend.
Julian Savea while join Romano up in the stands, replaced by Israel Dagg. This means the back three have been shuffled, with Smith in at 14, and Naholo moving over to 11 to make way for Izzy.

Other than that, the team is unchanged, which probably means they've been challenged to put in a better performance. Presumably, the squad members yet to see any action will do so next week, or during the Rugby Champs.

1. Joe Moody
2. Dane Coles
3. Owen Franks
4. Brodie Retallick
5. Sam Whitelock
6. Jerome Kaino
7. Sam Cane
8. Kieran Read (C)
9. Aaron Smith
10. Aaron Cruden
11. Waisake Naholo
12. Ryan Crotty
13. Malakai Fekitoa
14. Ben Smith
15. Israel Dagg

16. Nathan Harris
17. Wyatt Crockett
18. Charlie Faumuina
19. Patrick Tuipulotu
20. Ardie Savea
21. TJ Perenara
22. Beauden Barrett
23. Seta Tamanivalu

[zer0]

Glad to see one of Savea or Naholo dropped. But shifting Smith to the wing doesn't sit right with me. Smith had to consistently play several levels above Dagg for years to get the #15 jersey. Whereas Dagg gets the spot handed back to him by virtue of third party incompetence. He should have to work hard for it (as the selectors always like to claim).

In saying that, playing Smith on the wing should only be a stop-gap until the end of this series when Lowe can be called up, or Milner-Skudder returns. Whichever comes first. So the point is somewhat moot.

[Spy]

Glad to see one of Savea or Naholo dropped. But shifting Smith to the wing doesn't sit right with me. Smith had to consistently play several levels above Dagg for years to get the #15 jersey. Whereas Dagg gets the spot handed back to him by virtue of third party incompetence. He should have to work hard for it (as the selectors always like to claim).

In saying that, playing Smith on the wing should only be a stop-gap until the end of this series when Lowe can be called up, or Milner-Skudder returns. Whichever comes first. So the point is somewhat moot.

All good points. I think the balance is better with Dagg/Smith/Naholo than last weeks back 3, but I agree that it's tough on Smith to be moved from his preferred position through no fault of his own. He's clearly been better than Dagg at 15 in Super Rugby this year. I'm not yet convinced Dagg's completely re-mojo'd. He can catch a high ball though, I'll give him that.

Naholo was such a mixed bag last week. Great pace and some genuine tackle busts, but poor hands and a defensive misread leaving his man to score Wales first try were negatives on the ledger. Regardless though, he deserves to start ahead of Savea, at this stage.

Pack looks good. Midfield, not so much.

[Lizard]

There's a degree of makeshiftiness from 12 to 15. I don't think Wales have what it takes to fully exploit that but we need to get it sorted by the Championship.

NMS seems to be bolted on as the future nippy small winger, but that depends on his recovery and living up to his promise. A lot of players start with a hiss and a roar but either can't maintain it or get figured out by oppo analysts.

Ben from Accounts is 30. He'll be 33 by RWC2019. There is no guarantee he will last that long although I hope he does.

Savea should be an unquestioned starter but his form and apparent lack of motivation to remain fit are worrying. He's been in the team for four years now and should know what's expected.

Naholo is an exciting talent but we are yet to see if his test performances are just teething issues or a genuine inability to step up to test level.

Barrett. Is he a career super sub or starting 10 in waiting? That probably depends on Sopoaga proving himself at 10.

McKenzie. Is he the next Barrett or the next Cruden?

Ryan "placeholder" Crotty is solid but unspectacular. SBW's return to XVs should be the end of him save for emergencies.

Fekitoa looks ok so far but is still green.

By the end of the Championship, the back line could look very different. It would be a brave person to predict what it will be by October 2019.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Wales team: Rhys Patchell,, Liam Williams, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, Hallam Amos, Dan Biggar, Rhys Webb, Gethin Jenkins, Ken Owens, Samson Lee, Luke Charteris, Alun Wyn Jones, Ross Moriarty, Sam Warburton (capt), Taulupe Faletau.

Replacements: Scott Baldwin, Rob Evans, Tomas Francis, Bradley Davies, Ellis Jenkins, Gareth Davies, Rhys Priestland, Scott Williams.

[Puja]

Right, I've put a small amount of money on NZ beating Wales by more than 40 points, with the returns getting more interesting the higher the score goes. If you guys could manage to win by 81 point plus, then it's 1000-1 and I'd be very grateful.

Puja

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Jesus. Wales at 25/1 on the betfair exchange. I've never seen odds like that in a two horse race before kick off!

[Lizard]

Beer festival. Big screen. Bloody perfick.

[cashead]

Hey look, Wales have Howdy Doody at fullback.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Right, I've put a small amount of money on NZ beating Wales by more than 40 points, with the returns getting more interesting the higher the score goes. If you guys could manage to win by 81 point plus, then it's 1000-1 and I'd be very grateful.

Puja

Ooh. Where's that?

[Mellsblue]

Big fan of the lady singing the NZ anthem......what a voice....