RWC2023 qualification predictions

[Puja]

Hong Kong have just pulled out of Asian qualifying, citing pandemic concerns: https://www.hkrugby.com/news/hkru-withd ... -qualifier. That means Asia 1 will now be either Malaysia or South Korea and there'll be a comedy match between them and Tonga to "decide" who qualifies and who goes into the repechage.

Should be between Romania and the loser of USA/Chile for the final spot through the repechage, one would've thought.

Puja

[Puja]

What.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/61258214

How, Spain. How have you managed to fuck this up, again.

Utterly bewildering.

Puja

[Mr Mwenda]

Farcical.

I always preferred Portugal anyway, fingers crossed.

[Mellsblue]

Ha! Read about this a few weeks ago and thought that they surely wouldn’t be that stupid again and it would be a false alarm.
Anyone know if Bristol and the SRF have outsourced their rugby admin dept to the same firm?!?

[Mellsblue]

If you’re having trouble sleeping:

https://resources.world.rugby/worldrugb ... -FINAL.pdf


Having had a skim read the above, I wonder how many players over the years haven’t technically/legally qualified via residency.
Proving a ‘genuine, close, credible and established national link’ over 36 months must surely be hard. The player was pulled up for calling himself a saffa on social media ffs. Thank goodness you can’t be charged retrospectively as many a Kiwi, Saffa and Aussie and which ever Union they played for would be sanctioned when they hightail it back home the moment their contract isn’t renewed.

[Puja]

The player seems to be exceptionally thick from that. Not that the FER's case was ever more than tissue-thin in the first place, but his continual cheerful acknowledgement of every point the panel brought up must've had the Spanish reps banging their heads against the table.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

The player seems to be exceptionally thick from that.
Puja

He is a prop so what else would you expect.

[Puja]

Spain are attempting a very optimistic appeal: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/ ... -ban-union

I don't see that going anywhere. The grounds appear to be 1) The union was lied to by the player and the club, which doesn't really help as it's still their responsibility to check whether a player is eligible, 2) He didn't actually do very much and was a peripheral figure, which doesn't really help cause it doesn't matter - if he appeared even for a minute, that game is void, 3) Come onnnnnnnn, pleeeeeeease, we didn't meeean it.

I wish them luck. I think they'll need it.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

[Mellsblue]

Will it ever end?

[Puja]

Gods, what a mess the whole thing is. I don't know what the answer is - it *feels* like Spain have been a little hard done by (if they are telling the truth and can provide evidence that they were repeatedly lied to by the player and club), but the fact still remains that, in the laws, it is always their responsibility, they could have referred it to the IRB if they had even the slightest inkling of doubt and they didn't do that. And any decision to let them in will be appealed as unfair by Romania and Portugal.

Just a mess all around.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

Yep, you’ve got to feel sorry for Spain if they player did falsify his passport.
Time for World Rugby to setup their own unit to look after this for tier 3 down, at the least. You’ve essentially got a bunch of amateurs*, at worst, or unions run on a shoe string, at best, having to undertake forensic investigations.

*perhaps tier 3 and the WRU, at the least.

[noelwilliams]

RWC 2023 is still far away. Anyone excited for Rugby League World Cup? I am very much excited for this tournament. Total 16 teams will be participating in the tournament. Check out the list of countries who are participating in the event.

Deleted by Mod as off-topic

[Puja]

Cut

Nope. There is an "Other Sports" board, specifically for talking about sports that aren't rugby union. Feel free to set up a thread there, if you like.

Mod

[Puja]

Namibia vs Kenya for the Africa 1 spot on Sunday. Should be Namibia every day of the week, but Kenya aren't a million miles off and a one-off game could spring a surprise.

Interesting to see how close Algeria got to beating Kenya in the semi-final; they would've been a fun side to have in a France RWC. Good to see sides improving in Africa.

Puja

[Puja]

USA keep up the Northern Hemisphere's honour by edging Chile 21-22 in Santiago (and completing an absolute clean sqeep of NH vs SH games this weekend). Sets up a winner-takes-all game back in Denver next weekend.

Puja

[Lizard]

OK, so how am I going here? Original predictions in bold, how it's going in italics.

American qualification has gone in quite an unexpected direction, with a record three South American qualifiers, Canada out for the first time, and the USA in the last chance saloon.
Americas 1: USA,
Uruguay, my no. 2 pick, beat my predicted USA on aggregate in their home-and-away play-off with two home wins.

Americas 2: Uruguay
So Americas 2 qualifying involved Nth Am 2 (correctly predicted to be Canada) v Sth Am 2, which I think I thought would be Brazil. In fact it was Chile. I thought Canada would beat Brazil, and then fall to Uruguay. Instead, Chile knocked Canada out, and then in an upset for the ages has just pipped the USA in two-legged playoff, 52-51 on aggregate. Amazing stuff.

Americas 3 (repechage): Canada
Welp, with Canada already out, this leaves USA as Americas 3 heading to the repechage.

European qualification has became a total cluster fuck. Russia was effectively DQed after the invasion of Ukraine. Spain fucked up their player qualification checking AGAIN.

Europe 1: Georgia
Georgia would probably have been Europe 1 even without the cluster-fuckery

Europe 2: Russia
This would have been Spain, if they knew how passports worked. I'll claim a moral victory as Romania were bumped up from 3rd place.

Europe 3 (rep.): Romania
Portugal get the luckiest of breaks.

Death, taxes, and Namibia qualifying as Africa 1. How boering.
Africa 1: Namibia
Did it at a canter

Africa 2 (rep.): Kenya
Only just edged dark-horses Algeria in the semi-final.

With Fiji an automatic qualifier, the only question was the order of Tonga and Samoa.
Oceania 1: Samoa
Yep

Oceania 2 (Asia/Pac playoff): Tonga
Yep

With Japan straight in, this always going to be a straight footrace between HK and South Korea. Until HK played the Covid hokey-cokey about even taking part.
Asia 1 (Asia/Pac playoff): Hong Kong
In the end, HK did take part and narrowly squeezed past South Korea.

Asia/Pacific playoff: Tonga
Tonga v HK, to be played in Australia next weekend. I'm sticking with Tonga

Repechage tournament: Canada
The Canucks have already got the arse, with the USA slumming it instead. I'm picking them to take it out over Kenya, Portugal and (probably) HK but the World Rankings suggest it might be a competitive tournament in November

[Lizard]

Yep, Tonga in comfortably over HK.

[Puja]

44-22 is a much narrower margin than I expected. You'd have to say that's a good result for HK.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

44-22 is a much narrower margin than I expected.
Puja

Bedford player on the wing. Probs would’ve been 442 v 2 otherwise obvs.