....and where is the challenge coming from even if you cant see the big difference between the scenarios? Plus its going to be better even if Labour do as little as they`ve committed to- external events aside.
Challenge to Labour? It doesn't seem possible right now but the main selling point for Labour is 'change' - nothing intrinsic to Labour and certainly nothing about the Labour leadership. If they don't deliver 'change' their support might prove very fickle. And if the Tories reinvent themselves either by a new moderate, fresh face or more likely bring Farage into the fold (and crucially stop him from splitting the right vote) the whole situation could reverse (by 2029). Also, Starmerism is far less attractive to the youth vote than Corbynism. Support for genocide is also unpopular with the young.
I agree a Labour government is likely to do better than the continuation of this Tory one (which plans to cut spending even more to pay for the NI cut), but austerity will continue. So by 'better' I would mean 'better than the alternative' not 'getting better over time'.
I guess Labours change message is only ‘change from the tories’ as they aren’t offering any transformational change without reviews. So it’s possible that the demand for real change will become loud- but I think they’ll get a lot of time by dint of who else even if they don’t do much.
Over here, the government are making the economic situation such that if they lose the next election, there will be a crash and the new government will not be able to prevent it. That's their only chance.
C4's surprising discovery of racism within the Reform parry seems to have given the Tories a little bounce in the polls.
As it's at the expense of Reform I don't know if this is a good thing or not. Hmmmm. Probably not. The prize here is to see the Tories down to 3rd place. So even if Farage takes them over, he'll be nowhere near a despatch box.
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:46 pm
C4's surprising discovery of racism within the Reform parry seems to have given the Tories a little bounce in the polls.
As it's at the expense of Reform I don't know if this is a good thing or not. Hmmmm. Probably not. The prize here is to see the Tories down to 3rd place. So even if Farage takes them over, he'll be nowhere near a despatch box.
I’m very happy for people to realise that Reform arent a party of nice, but eccentric gents.
Might be better if he just buggers off back to Eastern Europe:
He was with Farage on the night of the Brexit referendum when he sensed a gambling opportunity. “At 10pm, I couldn’t believe I was still getting 9/1 [for a majority leave vote],” he told the Telegraph newspaper afterwards. “We were in our campaign office and I was tracking all the major stock indices, the dollar and pound currency markets. When it got to 3am, I was getting my managers out of bed to get me another 50 grand on here, another 50 grand there, to short sterling. I just couldn’t help myself.”
Cottrell claimed to have won a six-figure sum from shorting the pound but said he promptly “lost most of it the next day” on a horse.
Might be better if he just buggers off back to Eastern Europe:
He was with Farage on the night of the Brexit referendum when he sensed a gambling opportunity. “At 10pm, I couldn’t believe I was still getting 9/1 [for a majority leave vote],” he told the Telegraph newspaper afterwards. “We were in our campaign office and I was tracking all the major stock indices, the dollar and pound currency markets. When it got to 3am, I was getting my managers out of bed to get me another 50 grand on here, another 50 grand there, to short sterling. I just couldn’t help myself.”
Cottrell claimed to have won a six-figure sum from shorting the pound but said he promptly “lost most of it the next day” on a horse.
It's ridiculous what people have to put up with, constantly under threat from criminals and sociopaths
Might be better if he just buggers off back to Eastern Europe:
He was with Farage on the night of the Brexit referendum when he sensed a gambling opportunity. “At 10pm, I couldn’t believe I was still getting 9/1 [for a majority leave vote],” he told the Telegraph newspaper afterwards. “We were in our campaign office and I was tracking all the major stock indices, the dollar and pound currency markets. When it got to 3am, I was getting my managers out of bed to get me another 50 grand on here, another 50 grand there, to short sterling. I just couldn’t help myself.”
Cottrell claimed to have won a six-figure sum from shorting the pound but said he promptly “lost most of it the next day” on a horse.
It's ridiculous what people have to put up with, constantly under threat from criminals and sociopaths
Whether I stay up all night will depend on:
A] What tomorrow's work diary looks like when I leave this evening.
B] My actual capacity to stay awake (my insomnia's been playing up recently, and I'm overdue a crash).
Whether I stay up all night will depend on:
A] What tomorrow's work diary looks like when I leave this evening.
B] My actual capacity to stay awake (my insomnia's been playing up recently, and I'm overdue a crash).
I think I'll go to bed after the exit polls come out, put BBC on record, then get up at 5 to watch it at high speed.
ETA: Okay, that tactic only works for a minute or so; here's the archive (obviously, no interactive elements): https://archive.ph/skWeL
Literally zero "Safe" or "Very Probable" Tory seats
Puja
Unfortunately only one of those polls has the Tories down to 3rd place. But there'll be a hell of a lot of Portillo moments.
Yeah, I think Reform's latest PR failures of saying the quiet bit out loud, combined with general regression to the mean and the Tories' "supermajority" bullshit, has killed the dream of the Lib Dems overtaking them. It was always a long shot, albeit a hilarious one.
Literally zero "Safe" or "Very Probable" Tory seats
Puja
Unfortunately only one of those polls has the Tories down to 3rd place. But there'll be a hell of a lot of Portillo moments.
Yeah, I think Reform's latest PR failures of saying the quiet bit out loud, combined with general regression to the mean and the Tories' "supermajority" bullshit, has killed the dream of the Lib Dems overtaking them. It was always a long shot, albeit a hilarious one.
Puja
As a consolation, it'll be nice to listen to them trying to create a noise in the Commons when there's less than 100 of them.
Literally zero "Safe" or "Very Probable" Tory seats
Puja
Unfortunately only one of those polls has the Tories down to 3rd place. But there'll be a hell of a lot of Portillo moments.
Yeah, I think Reform's latest PR failures of saying the quiet bit out loud, combined with general regression to the mean and the Tories' "supermajority" bullshit, has killed the dream of the Lib Dems overtaking them. It was always a long shot, albeit a hilarious one.
Puja
Reform might have droped a couple of points as a result of some of its less PR friendly candidates being honest. Im still amazed that some of the candidates were surprised that they shared a party with a bunch of racists. I suppose the Farage effect has affected them too.
It will be a huge ask for the Lib Dems to make second place. Im guessing 100-120 Conservative MPs will be left. The big issue will be which MPs and if there's a large clutch of righ wing tories then they are likely to reexamine the ideological nonsense of the late 1990s and early 2000s, which will reduce the effectiveness of them in opposition. There has to be an opposition party and its better for everyone if its not totally batshit crazy.
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:12 am
Unfortunately only one of those polls has the Tories down to 3rd place. But there'll be a hell of a lot of Portillo moments.
Yeah, I think Reform's latest PR failures of saying the quiet bit out loud, combined with general regression to the mean and the Tories' "supermajority" bullshit, has killed the dream of the Lib Dems overtaking them. It was always a long shot, albeit a hilarious one.
Puja
Reform might have droped a couple of points as a result of some of its less PR friendly candidates being honest. Im still amazed that some of the candidates were surprised that they shared a party with a bunch of racists. I suppose the Farage effect has affected them too.
It will be a huge ask for the Lib Dems to make second place. Im guessing 100-120 Conservative MPs will be left. The big issue will be which MPs and if there's a large clutch of righ wing tories then they are likely to reexamine the ideological nonsense of the late 1990s and early 2000s, which will reduce the effectiveness of them in opposition. There has to be an opposition party and its better for everyone if its not totally batshit crazy.
I suspect that there is probably a bit of truth to the Reform screeching that their candidates were being offered jobs and inducements to abandon ship - I'd be surprised if two Reform candidates independently realised across two days that the racism was coming from inside of the house and decided the only thing to do was to publically support the notably completely unracist Conservative party.
