Statistic of the Day

[Guest]

Just to round it off, NZ has the longest Bledisloe winning streak (matches I mean, not series) of 10 (2008-2010) with an undefeated streak of 11 (1967-78). Aussie's best was 3 in a row a few times (1978-80, 1998, 2000-01). They haven't had back to back wins v NZ since the last of those.

[cashead]

It's impossible for a team to have won 2 consecutive world cups and not have the record for most consecutive RWC wins.

[zer0]

It's impossible for a team to have won 2 consecutive world cups and not have the record for most consecutive RWC wins.

Not necessarily. If you lose a pool game then that'd reset the count. In that scenario it'd be more damaging dropping a pool match in the second tournament than the first. For example, if the All Blacks lost their first 2011 pool match, but won everything else in winning the two titles, then they'd have a record of 13 consecutive wins. If, on the other hand, they won every match in 2011 and dropped their last 2015 pool match on route to winning the title, then they'd end up with two titles but would not surpass Australia's record of 12 as their run would've ended at 10 when they lost that final hypothetical pool match.

[Lizard]

Exactly. England has twice made the RWC final after losing a pool match, so it's not out of the question for someone to win it without going undefeated.

[cashead]

Hasn't happened yet though, has it?

[rowan]

France came closest in 2011. & they'd been beaten twice at the group stages!!

[Lizard]

In the last three matches between Aust and NZ the average margin has been a tick over 26 points.

New Zealand has never lost to anybody by more than 21.

[rowan]

Apart from the 40-17 thumping from Sydney in 1992.

8-42 was a record loss for the Wallabies at home, btw.

[Lizard]

Undefeated Test Captains (with 10+ tests):

Buck Shelford 1988-90 (NZ) 14
Shalva Sutiashvili 2014-16* (GEO) 14
Kieran Read 2012-16* (NZ) 13
Dave Davies 1921-23 (ENG) 11
Dylan Hartley 2012-16* (ENG) 10

*Unfinished run

Barring injury or banning, it seems unlikely that any of the contenders will maintain their unbeaten status until the end of their careers and will therefore eventually drop off this list even if they temporarily overtake Shelford. Sutiashvili is 32 though, so might not be around too much longer.

Both Shelford and Sutiashvili captained in a draw, leaving Read with the record for most tests (13) as Captain with a 100% win record. The next best on that list is Nicolas Fernandez Miranda with 6 (2002-2005, ARG). No-one else has more than 4.

I believe that Sir Brian Lochore reached a world record 14 consecutive wins as captain before his first loss.

[Lizard]

Apart from the 40-17 thumping from Sydney in 1992.

8-42 was a record loss for the Wallabies at home, btw.

True, thank you. I should have specified in tests. In any event, the point still stands even with that 23 point upset as the mark in question.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Cyprus won 24 in a row. After losing the ENC 2006/08 division 3C/3D playoff, they went undefeated through the entire 2008/10 3D tournament, the 2010/12 2D tournament AND the 2012/14 2C tournament before reaching their level of competence at ENC 2B, where they won their first match but recorded only 2 wins in their other 7 matches.

Lizard.

[Lizard]

Is it just me or is Julian Savea not given just dues. The Bus has 40 tries in 44 matches putting him 5th on the NZ list behind Howlett, Cullen, Rokocoko and J. Wilson and ahead of Lomu, yet all those players seemed to be much more highly regarded in their day than Julian is now.

For context, there are only 14 men in history with 40 or more tries. Here’s how many tests it took them to get to 40:

D. Ohata: 35
J. Savea: 44
J. Rokocoko: 46
C. Cullen: 48
D. Howlett: 49
J. Wilson: 55
D. Campese: 56
H. Onozawa: 56
S. Williams: 57
B. Habana: 73
R. Underwood: 75
C. Latham: 77
G. Thomas: 99
B. O’Driscoll: 107

[zer0]

He was given plenty of fanfare before he contracted a persistent case of the Weepu's.

[Lizard]

He was given plenty of fanfare before he contracted a persistent case of the Weepu's.

I guess we will have to wait and see how his career pans out. He might end up dancing on cars in Tokyo in 2019, or like Roko fade from 40 tries in 40-odd tests to 46 tries in 68 tests (his last 21 tests over 3 years and 1 month yielded just 3 tries).

[rowan]

Is it just me or is Julian Savea not given just dues. The Bus has 40 tries in 44 matches putting him 5th on the NZ list behind Howlett, Cullen, Rokocoko and J. Wilson and ahead of Lomu, yet all those players seemed to be much more highly regarded in their day than Julian is now.

For context, there are only 14 men in history with 40 or more tries. Here’s how many tests it took them to get to 40:

D. Ohata: 35
J. Savea: 44
J. Rokocoko: 46
C. Cullen: 48
D. Howlett: 49
J. Wilson: 55
D. Campese: 56
H. Onozawa: 56
S. Williams: 57
B. Habana: 73
R. Underwood: 75
C. Latham: 77
G. Thomas: 99
B. O’Driscoll: 107

A lot of it has to do with how dominant the team you're playing in is, of course. The All Blacks have probably never been so dominant as when Savea has been playing. About any of the players in that list would have scored as many tries, if not more, had they had that luxury. They might not have got the smash-bash ones, but they'd have made up for it in other ways

[Lizard]

Yes. Years ago on a previous RR incarnation I did a detailed breakdown of percentage of team tries scored during a players career and whether the players presence on the pitch lifted the average number of tries scored. This took fucking ages and I'm not going to do it again. Probably.

[rowan]

Kiss me if I'm wrong, but haven't the All Blacks now been ranked number one in the world since the beginning of the decade, and haven't they maintained an unbeaten record at home all that time, with the only blemishes on their record being the odd away defeat to former World Champions Australia, SA & England - invariably by the narrowest of margins. Even their old nemesis France hasn't prevailed against them once this decade and were given a royal thumping at last year's World Cup. Wales hasn't beaten them for over 60 years (& NEVER in NZ), and nobody else in international rugby has managed a single victory against the All Blacks in the entire history of the game - unless we count Rhodesia/Zimbabwe

[Lizard]

I'm not going to kiss you, but I would argue that the Lions and 1992 World XV are "in international rugby" and have recorded wins against the All Blacks.

Blemishes since 2009 include away draws, as well as the losses you mention. The losses were not necessarily by the narrowest of margins - England's 38-21 victory in 2012 was the 3rd heaviest defeat of the All Blacks ever. 2011's 18-5 win by the Boks was their 4th biggest win ever over NZ (not including 14 and 15 point wins over the Cavaliers).

[Lizard]

Bledisloe Cup

As noted in another thread, the current All Blacks’ dominance of the Bledisloe Cup is actually nothing too far out of the ordinary.

The Cup has been contested since 1931 (or 1932*) and in the 86 years since there have been 57 series played (it only became an annual contest in 1982).

Series wins
All Blacks 45 (79%)
Wallabies 12 (21%)

The current run is the most consecutive series wins (14) but only the second longest in terms of time (14 years). The All Blacks held the cup for a record 28 years over 12 series from 1951 – 1978. In fact, the only interruption between 1936 and 1978 (43 years, 17 series) was an Australian win in 1949 against a second string touring outfit (the first choice players were in South Africa and in fact played a test on the same day as one of the Bledisloe tests).

Australia’s best run was 5 in a row from 1998-2002, which has unreasonably raised the expectations of Aussie players and fans ever since (much like the 1980’s NZ cricket team). Their second best was only 2 consecutive wins in 1979 & 1980. They have also had 5 one-off wins, after which they lost the Cup immediately.

So the Wallabies have a 7 from 45 record in taking the Cup off NZ.

The Cup has been contested in one-off matches and in series of 2, 3, 4 or even 5 tests. Since 1996 all or some of those tests have doubled as TriNations or Rugby Championship matches.

The only five Test series was in 1962 (2 played in Aussie, 3 in NZ):
NZ won (4-1)

3 four-test series were played 2008-2010 (each including 3N/RC games in both countries plus 1 neutral venue):
NZ 3 (4-0, 2x 3-1)
Aussie 0

23 three-test series were played sporadically from 1932-1974, every second season 1978-1992, and including 3N/RC matches in 1997-98, 2006 and 2013-2015:
NZ 19 (6x 3-0, 9x 2-0, 4x 2-0-1)
Aussie 4 (1x 3-0, 3x 2-1)

21 two-test series occurred sporadically in a single country from 1934-68, home-and-away in 1991 and in 1995, as part of the 3N/RC in 1996, 2000-2005, 2007, 2011 and 2016:
NZ 15 (10x 2-0, 5x 1-1**)
Aussie 6 (2x 2-0, 1x 1-0-1, 3x 1-1**)

9 one-off tests have decided the Cup including the first match in 1931, 1967, 1979, every 2nd season 1983-1989, 1993-94:
NZ 7
Aussie 2

*ARU say 1931, NZRU say 1932 as Lord Bledisloe did not gift the actual Cup until a few days after the 1931 match.

**Cup retained as holder despite drawn series

[Lizard]

Locking combinations

Michael Cheika has been in charge of the Wallabies for 21 tests now.
In that time he has used 8 different locks in his starting XV, in 11 different combinations.
8 combinations (or 73% of them) have been used only once. Two of them have been tried 3 times. Douglas/Simmons have started 7 times together.
Two of the top 3 of Douglas/SImmons/Skelton have been the starting pair in 10 of those 21 tests.

In roughly same time period, Steve Hansen has also coached 21 tests.
In that time he has used 7 different locks in his starting XV, in 6 different combinations.
3 combinations (50%) have been used only once. Two of them have been tried 3 times. Retallick/Whitelock have started 12 times together.
Two of Retallick/Romano/Whitelock have been the starting pair in 18 of those 21 tests.

[Lizard]

Yes. Years ago on a previous RR incarnation I did a detailed breakdown of percentage of team tries scored during a players career and whether the players presence on the pitch lifted the average number of tries scored. This took fucking ages and I'm not going to do it again. Probably.

OK, I crumbled. I’ve only done the numbers for Ohata and Savea though, with some (justifiable) approximations around dates. A more nuanced view could be given by doing some sort of weighting of quality of opposition but fuck that.

Ohata scored 69 tries in 58 tests (1.2/test). That was 26.5% of Japan’s total of 260 in those tests, or 4.5 tries/test. In the calendar years encompassing his test career (1996-2006), Japan played 32 tests without Ohata, scoring 102 tries, or 3.2/test. Interestingly, if you add the average tries/test Japan managed without Ohata to his personal average, you get very close to Japan’s average with Ohata (3.2+1.2=4.4≈4.5). This suggests that the majority of Ohata’s tries are ones that Japan would not have scored without him (on the almost certainly incorrect assumption that there was no correlation between opposition strength and the selection of Ohata).

Savea has scored 41 tries in 45 tests (0.9/test). That is 22.2% of NZ’s total of 185 in those tests, or 4.1 tries/test. In the calendar years encompassing his test career (2012-2016), NZ has played 14 tests without Savea, scoring 50 tries, or 3.6/test. If you add the average tries/test NZ manages without Savea to his personal average, you get about half a try more than NZ’s average with Savea (3.6+0.9=4.5>4.1). This suggests that only about half of Savea’s tries are ones that NZ would not have scored without him (on the almost certainly incorrect assumption that there was no correlation between opposition strength and the selection of Savea).

Conclusion: Ohata was more valuable to Japan than Savea is to NZ, given the average strength of opposition and alternative players available.

Further, if Savea maintains his career scoring rate, he will need to get to about 77 tests to beat Ohata’s record. If he plays every test, this will take him until at least RC2018, when he will be 28.

[Lizard]

NZ Herald has unleashed some “Top Tier” stattage. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/ar ... d=11705117

Here’s what they are hiding:

“Argentina will be aiming to record back-to-back wins in The Rugby Championship for the first time ever after beating South Africa in their last match.”

In fact Los Pumas have never recorded consecutive victories against the SH Big 3, whether taken collectively or individually.


“Julian Savea has scored eight tries against Argentina, his joint-most against a single opponent (level with England); should he score a hat-trick he would equal Richie McCaw and Ma'a Nonu (both 11 v Australia) for the most tries by a Tier One player against a single opponent.”

McCaw and Nonu’s mark of 11 tries v Aust (both in 55 matches) is 6th= on the list of most tries by a single player against one opponent. It’s well short of the overall record 19 that Daisuke Ohata (who else?) scored v Korea (in only 11 matches).

The top 5 are:
Ohata (Jap): 19 v Korea (11 matches)
Onozawa (Jap): 18 v Korea (10)
Meyer (Nam): 16 v Zim (11)
Jorge (Arg): 14 v Brazil (2)*
Nunez Piossek (Arg): 13 v Paraguay (2)**

Honourable mention to 8th= Ashley Billington who scored 10 for Hong Kong v Singapore in only one match (equal with C. Cullen v SA in 15 matches and Ohata again, 10 v Taiwan in 2 matches)


“Savea has scored four hat-tricks in his Test career so far, of Tier One players only Jeff Wilson has scored more (5).”

Again, Ohata and Onozawa top this overall list with 7. Savea is 4th= behind Wilson with Cullen, Rokocoko, Sempere Padilla (Spain) and Tupuailei (Japan).


“New Zealand have conceded fewer than 10 points in each of their last three Tests, the last time they pulled off a longer such streak was in November 2008 with wins against Scotland, Ireland, Wales, and England in Europe.”

This way off the overall NZ record of 15 consecutive tests conceding fewer than 10 points set in their first 15 tests (1903-1910) including the Originals 0-3 loss to Wales. Of course with 3-point tries, leather balls and no kicking tees, points were harder to come by. The four matches referred to by the Herald are the 5-point try era record.




*Winger Gustavo Jorge scored 6 (on debut in 1989) and then 8 tries (1993) in these two Sth American Championship mismatches. The aggregate team scores were 207 – 12.
**Winger Jose Maria Nunez Piossek also cashed in from the Sth Am Champs. He scored a mere 4 v Paraguay in 2002 (as did two of his team mates) but backed it up with 9 in the 2003 fixture, aggregate score 296 – 0. It’s fair to say the Pumas are better off in the Rugby Championship (not to mention their opposition!).

[Lizard]

Owen "Starting" Franks has equaled Salvatore Perugini's record of 83 test caps without ever scoring a try.

Perugini started 53 of his tests, compared to Franks 73, so I would put the NZer ahead on tie-breaker.

Another way to break the tie is to consider that Franks has dodged being at the sharp end of 318 tries scored by his team while was in the playing squad. (He must have worked bloody hard against Japan in 2011 when his team mates got over the line 13 times including Mealamu and Hore). Perugini only had to avoid 147 tries (also working hard to avoid any of the 13 against Portugal in 2006 including scores by both locks and the replacement hooker).

3rd place is J Slipper of Australia who is on 79 tryless caps. There a bunch of active players in the 60s.

[rowan]

Just as a matter of interest, the following figures represent the percentage of citizens registered as rugby players by country:

Tonga 14
Samoa 10.7
Fiji 7.2
New Zealand 3
Wales 2.4
Ireland 1.6
Swaziland 1
Australia 0.95
Scotland 0.7
England 0.68
South Africa 0.6
Namibia 0.6
Botswana 0.5
France 0.43
Sri Lanka 0.23
Uruguay 0.2
PNG 0.2
Hong Kong 0.18
Singapore 0.18
Georgia 0.17
Zimbabwe 0.17
Tunisia 0.16
Malaysia 0.16
Italy 0.14
Argentina 0.13
Solomans 0.13
Malta 0.1
Moldova 0.085
Japan 0.08
Madagascar 0.08
Zambia 0.08
Canada 0.07
Portugal 0.07
Belgium 0.07
Spain 0.065
Netherlands 0.065
Lithuania 0.06
Uganda 0.06
Senegal 0.05
Switzerland 0.05
Czech. 0.04
USA 0.034
Romania 0.034
Sweden 0.03
Denmark 0.03
Hungary 0.03
UAE 0.03
Kenya 0.02
Cameroon 0.02
Bulgaria 0.02
Serbia 0.02
Taiwan 0.02
Thailand 0.018
Poland 0.018
Russia 0.016
Kazakhstan 0.016
Morocco 0.015
Germany 0.012
Chile 0.01
Ivory Coast 0.009
Ukraine 0.005
Korea 0.0039
Brazil 0.0024
Pakistan 0.002
India 0.0007
China 0.00004

[Which Tyler]

Just as a matter of interest, the following figures represent the percentage of citizens registered as rugby players by country: