America

[cashead]

A positive slant on a Trump presidency:

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald- ... 2fc106ce72

A positive slant on fascism. Who the fuck wrote this shit.

[Son of Mathonwy]

A positive slant on a Trump presidency:

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald- ... 2fc106ce72

A positive slant on fascism. Who the fuck wrote this shit.

Overall it's a bullshit take on Trump: The Return. As the article says, Covid also was a shock which had some benefits, but that doesn't mean Covid wasn't a complete disaster for global health and wealth. No doubt there's a range of opinion in Brussels about Trump, from those who warm to fascism to those who see a silver lining to T 2.0, to those who see no good in him whatsoever. But the article takes all of this and wraps it up in a nice positive spin.

For example, the article says that Trump promises to end the Russia-Ukraine war immediately (at Ukraine's expense). If that happen it would mean the EU would gear down its defensive efforts, not galvanize them. It's a confused piece.

[Mellsblue]

A positive slant on a Trump presidency:

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald- ... 2fc106ce72

A positive slant on fascism. Who the fuck wrote this shit.

Overall it's a bullshit take on Trump: The Return. As the article says, Covid also was a shock which had some benefits, but that doesn't mean Covid wasn't a complete disaster for global health and wealth. No doubt there's a range of opinion in Brussels about Trump, from those who warm to fascism to those who see a silver lining to T 2.0, to those who see no good in him whatsoever. But the article takes all of this and wraps it up in a nice positive spin.

For example, the article says that Trump promises to end the Russia-Ukraine war immediately (at Ukraine's expense). If that happen it would mean the EU would gear down its defensive efforts, not galvanize them. It's a confused piece.

Not sure whether people are wilfully missing the point of the piece, but it is that a Trump win is bad in the round but will force Europe to face up to systemic problems.

As for the bolder bit, perhaps it’s that they fear it emboldens Putin to rearm and think that once again the West have let him get away with annexing another nation’s land, inspite of committing multiple war crimes, so why not have another go at a later date, as most military commentators think. And as for what it shows re Taiwan.

[Stom]

A positive slant on fascism. Who the fuck wrote this shit.

Overall it's a bullshit take on Trump: The Return. As the article says, Covid also was a shock which had some benefits, but that doesn't mean Covid wasn't a complete disaster for global health and wealth. No doubt there's a range of opinion in Brussels about Trump, from those who warm to fascism to those who see a silver lining to T 2.0, to those who see no good in him whatsoever. But the article takes all of this and wraps it up in a nice positive spin.

For example, the article says that Trump promises to end the Russia-Ukraine war immediately (at Ukraine's expense). If that happen it would mean the EU would gear down its defensive efforts, not galvanize them. It's a confused piece.

Not sure whether people are wilfully missing the point of the piece, but it is that a Trump win is bad in the round but will force Europe to face up to systemic problems.

As for the bolder bit, perhaps it’s that they fear it emboldens Putin to rearm and think that once again the West have let him get away with annexing another nation’s land, inspite of committing multiple war crimes, so why not have another go at a later date, as most military commentators think. And as for what it shows re Taiwan.

I think it's fundamentally flawed in that if the EU hasn't faced up to it's problems after Brexit, the problems with Hungary and Poland, and consistent ill-feeling toward it as an organization outside of certain pockets of positive feeling...

It's not going to face up to them any time soon.

[Mellsblue]

What would Private Frazer say.

[Stom]

What would Private Frazer say.

To upscale for 2024, "We're fvxxing doomed!"

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Given how awful Harris is on Gaza I can totally understand how Americans, especially Muslims, could choose to abstain*. But abstaining would be a mistake, no matter how gutting it would be to give genocide supporter Harris some kind of approval.

The argument I'd make is that abstaining is like giving both Harris and Trump a vote (the effect is the same). And what kind of a fool would give Trump a vote? So a vote for Harris is the least bad option. Just hold your nose.

* but not vote for Trump, that's insane, he'd be at least as bad on Gaza and worse on everything else.

How awful is she on Gaza? So far as I've seen she's studiously avoided saying anything of consequence. She's highlighted the importance of humanitarian aid and said that Israel has the right to defend itself but has consistently called for a ceasefire.

I agree. Of course, sadly, I don't expect this documentary to have any impact on a Trump supporter. They believe everything he says and/or think if loyal Republicans change the vote counts then it's all for the best anyway. Who needs democracy if you like the dictator? For the undecided (how there is such a group I don't know...) I suppose they hear Trump using the Joseph Goebbels technique of accusing the enemy of what he's doing (ie stealing the election) and don't know who to believe.

I am too ignorant of the US electorate to know what Harris should be concentrating on at this point. But whatever she does she needs to open that gap again. They're neck and neck. Unbelievably.

It’s also worth considering that political insults are so common place now that many people just switch off. Voices n the left have been calling anyone right of centre a fascist for years. It’s lost its meaning. Now when someone genuinely authoritarian enters US politics, why should the average voter take that warning seriously?

We've been calling the fascists fascists. Trump, Bibi, Modi, Victor, et al., and guess what...

Don't rewrite history. We were right to call them fascists 8 bloody years ago. Just people didn't pay attention because "you can't call names"... well, it was a warning, it went unheeded, and we have fascist governments across the world.

He's not re-writing history. Dubya was also called a fascist as well as others. I have see it happening here as well - the chucking around of fascist to denude it of any meaning so when genuine fascists like Braverman rock up it's too late to sound the alarm.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

The NATO minus the US vs Russia discussion is an interesting one. The sad reality is that without a lot of the US supporting technology, it wouldn't be a fun event going toe to toe with a much larger military that was being supported by other regimes such as North Korea, Iran and China. The rest of Natos capabilities are (mostly) technologically superior to Russia which provides an advantage, but the investment in the nuts and bolts of a good military isn't universal. UK and France struggled with certain aspects of the operations in Libya until the US lent logistic support.

Politically too, if the US decided not to get involved and ignore its treaty commitments, there is no guarantee that other members wouldnt do the same. Greece and Turkey wouldnt work together at all. Poland would be beligerent, Germany might be, not so sure about other key members. Plus there is no clear command structure that works from top to bottom without American personnel. That latter point is fixable, but its not something you would want to do overnight if the US suddenly decided to step away mid-crisis point.

This kind of puts the discussions over a Euro army into focus.

If it's a full on world war with the Chinese weighing in properly then perhaps all bets are off. But assuming something like the Russian force as is decided to pick off an EU state they'd get shat on from a very great height. They're currently in a draw with Ukraine. If they invaded any EU state I am absolutely certain the others all weigh in and we do too. Turkey can decide whether they want to be a Russian satellite or stay with the free world. I'm pretty sure the American arms manufacturers will insist on continuing to supply us. Europe doesn't need aid in the way Ukraine does and has its own arms manufacturers. I am unusually confident that even with Trump in charge we're grand.

But what if 1 of france/Germany/Britain flips and then you have 1 of the big 3 lined up with Hungary, Serbia and Russia. The czechs and Slovaks are keen on right wing extremism also. Its not hard to see Europe at war with itself........again

There's zero chance of any of the big 3 flipping. I'm not keeping up with the czech and slovak politics but I'd be very surprised if they wanted to turn away from europe even if they are a bit more right wing than the rest of us.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Given how awful Harris is on Gaza I can totally understand how Americans, especially Muslims, could choose to abstain*. But abstaining would be a mistake, no matter how gutting it would be to give genocide supporter Harris some kind of approval.

The argument I'd make is that abstaining is like giving both Harris and Trump a vote (the effect is the same). And what kind of a fool would give Trump a vote? So a vote for Harris is the least bad option. Just hold your nose.

* but not vote for Trump, that's insane, he'd be at least as bad on Gaza and worse on everything else.

How awful is she on Gaza? So far as I've seen she's studiously avoided saying anything of consequence. She's highlighted the importance of humanitarian aid and said that Israel has the right to defend itself but has consistently called for a ceasefire.

She's in complete agreement with Biden on it, that is with a policy of paying for and providing material, logistical, intelligence and political support for genocide. We have no reason to believe anything else (no matter what I'd like to think). When asked what she would say to voters put off by her position on Gaza she said vote for me because of women's rights or the economy or something else: she had nothing more to offer on Gaza.

[paddy no 11]

It seems winning pennsylvania is a must for vote candidates

Maybe our man on the ground is going door to door canvassing instead of keeping us up to date. Good luck morepork, hopefully a completely Democratic process takes place

[Puja]

There's a few pundits saying there's a possibility that the polls are wrong at the moment and that Harris is actually in a much stronger position than thought. The theory is that polling is as much an art as a science as you are guessing who is likely to vote, whether your respondants are representative of that, whether you have underrepresented or overrepresented one side or the other, and whether you need to adjust your results to remove bias based on that. As such, there is a lot of human judgement involved and the issue is that polling companies don't like to be wrong - it is safer to agree with other reputable polling companies than it is to stick your neck out and have strikingly different results, and this goes doubly so for underestimating Trump, which has happened two elections in a row. That means that, in a race publically supposed to be tight, there is motivation for pollsters to adjust their results to show that and also to add a little bit extra to Trump just to be on the safe side, which then leads other pollsters to do the same because the herd is moving that way etc.

There's a lot of excitement about a very highly rated polling company in Iowa (has been within 1-2 points of the state for the past 6 elections doing this same poll at the same time) coming up with Harris +3, which is a ridiculous swing in what is supposed to be a heavily Red state that Trump won by 9% in 2016 and 8% in 2020. Even if it's wrong by 8 points, it's still a strikingly bold call by a very well regarded pollster. The theory is that early voting is huge this year, which tends to skew Democratic, and that the gender gap of women coming out to vote for Harris is strong than had been expected.

I am trying not to believe (given that my previous attempts to try not to pay attention have not gone well), but it is at least some possibility of hope.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

This is exciting, in a will that asteroid hit or miss the Earth? sort of way. I give up on the poling. There's positive or negative stuff to take if you look for it. Hope this first Roe v Wade election will show women making a big effort. Also, the sane Republican/Liz Cheney effect might have an impact.

But it'll be what it'll be, far tighter that any race involving Trump should be. Hope the centre holds (poetically).

[Puja]

This is exciting, in a will that asteroid hit or miss the Earth? sort of way. I give up on the poling. There's positive or negative stuff to take if you look for it. Hope this first Roe v Wade election will show women making a big effort. Also, the sane Republican/Liz Cheney effect might have an impact.

But it'll be what it'll be, far tighter that any race involving Trump should be. Hope the centre holds (poetically).

Read an article the other day pointing out that the way elections are reported are a logical fallacy. They are sold to us as a "race" (using horse-racing lingo like "neck-and-neck", "final stretch", "frontrunner", and "gaining ground" to fix the link in our minds) - something which runs over time, has ebbs and flows, frontrunners and chasers, and the excitement of the lead changing hands or getting bigger, and which is exciting to report on - when it is in fact nothing of the sort. It's a single discrete (not discreet!) event, entirely disconnected from polling - the result will be what the result will be. No-one is "in the lead" or "lagging behind", regardless of what polling says, because the election is an entirely separate event to the polling. Same with the partial results while votes are being counted.

I mean, it's not going to stop me from obsessively checking 538 five times a day or staying up on election night, like it'll make a difference, but it's important to remember.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

I don’t want to push you further into the black hole but the head honcho at Ipsos tweeted on this and he thinks it highly unlikely the polls are wrong given all the different models employed.

[Puja]

I don’t want to push you further into the black hole but the head honcho at Ipsos tweeted on this and he thinks it highly unlikely the polls are wrong given all the different models employed.

I would say that Ipsos does have something of an interest in defending their approach, given that pollsters only get given money for polls if people have confidence in them and doing anything but a full-throated defence of their methodology is probably bad for business. Even if they're wrong, then they get to hide in the pack of, "Well everyone was wrong, so it was unavoidable", so it's safer to defend where they are.

But I'm trying not to buy into the hope, so I won't say that.


On a lighter and less existential doom note, this happened on live television which entertained me:



Puja

[Puja]

It seems winning pennsylvania is a must for vote candidates

Maybe our man on the ground is going door to door canvassing instead of keeping us up to date. Good luck morepork, hopefully a completely Democratic process takes place

Notably, despite it being his home state and despite Harris's events starting off in his hometown of Scranton, Biden is not going to be involved with the last day of campaigning, instead staying in the White House for a full day of Presidenty-stuff that does not involve talking publically. One suspects that he's been put out to pasture for fear that any further "help" he might offer could cost the election.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

This is exciting, in a will that asteroid hit or miss the Earth? sort of way. I give up on the poling. There's positive or negative stuff to take if you look for it. Hope this first Roe v Wade election will show women making a big effort. Also, the sane Republican/Liz Cheney effect might have an impact.

But it'll be what it'll be, far tighter that any race involving Trump should be. Hope the centre holds (poetically).

Read an article the other day pointing out that the way elections are reported are a logical fallacy. They are sold to us as a "race" (using horse-racing lingo like "neck-and-neck", "final stretch", "frontrunner", and "gaining ground" to fix the link in our minds) - something which runs over time, has ebbs and flows, frontrunners and chasers, and the excitement of the lead changing hands or getting bigger, and which is exciting to report on - when it is in fact nothing of the sort. It's a single discrete (not discreet!) event, entirely disconnected from polling - the result will be what the result will be. No-one is "in the lead" or "lagging behind", regardless of what polling says, because the election is an entirely separate event to the polling. Same with the partial results while votes are being counted.

I mean, it's not going to stop me from obsessively checking 538 five times a day or staying up on election night, like it'll make a difference, but it's important to remember.

Puja

Yeah, it's a bit like the landslide Starmer had to overturn, so big it 'might take two terms'. Nonsense, each election is its own thing, it starts from zero every time. A lot of the voting is already done and posted but nothing's been counted. Everyone's at zero at this point no matter what the polls say. We just have to hope the counting is done correctly and without challenge (only kidding, without successful challenge) and the less bad option wins.

On to the circus tomorrow night. And to see (and be amazed again) that the opinions of news channels seem to have some impact on the outcome.

[Son of Mathonwy]

It seems winning pennsylvania is a must for vote candidates

Maybe our man on the ground is going door to door canvassing instead of keeping us up to date. Good luck morepork, hopefully a completely Democratic process takes place

Notably, despite it being his home state and despite Harris's events starting off in his hometown of Scranton, Biden is not going to be involved with the last day of campaigning, instead staying in the White House for a full day of Presidenty-stuff that does not involve talking publically. One suspects that he's been put out to pasture for fear that any further "help" he might offer could cost the election.

Puja

Here's another old dude doing his best to lose Harris the election:

[Which Tyler]

Notably, despite it being his home state and despite Harris's events starting off in his hometown of Scranton, Biden is not going to be involved with the last day of campaigning, instead staying in the White House for a full day of Presidenty-stuff that does not involve talking publically. One suspects that he's been put out to pasture for fear that any further "help" he might offer could cost the election.

Out to pasture?
Needs his nap time?
Keeping on top of potential civil unrest?

[morepork]

It seems winning pennsylvania is a must for vote candidates

Maybe our man on the ground is going door to door canvassing instead of keeping us up to date. Good luck morepork, hopefully a completely Democratic process takes place

I’m definitely on the ground. Mood is definitely tense. Harris is doing a gig in Philly tonight. I’m going mainly because the Roots will be playing. I’ll be voting tomorrow (lining up for hours on a fucking work day). The prospect of a woman being potentially in charge has just brought all the crackers out of the woodwork. It’s sad. Black woman scary.

[Puja]

Notably, despite it being his home state and despite Harris's events starting off in his hometown of Scranton, Biden is not going to be involved with the last day of campaigning, instead staying in the White House for a full day of Presidenty-stuff that does not involve talking publically. One suspects that he's been put out to pasture for fear that any further "help" he might offer could cost the election.

Out to pasture?
Needs his nap time?
Keeping on top of potential civil unrest?

Talking to military members fighting IS in the Middle East apparently, so hardly unimportant makework, but not things that wouldn't've been pushed back if it was his re-election or if he wasn't considered a liability to his successor.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

It seems winning pennsylvania is a must for vote candidates

Maybe our man on the ground is going door to door canvassing instead of keeping us up to date. Good luck morepork, hopefully a completely Democratic process takes place

I’m definitely on the ground. Mood is definitely tense. Harris is doing a gig in Philly tonight. I’m going mainly because the Roots will be playing. I’ll be voting tomorrow (lining up for hours on a fucking work day). The prospect of a woman being potentially in charge has just brought all the crackers out of the woodwork. It’s sad. Black woman scary.

Have a great vote - give Trump another taste of democracy.

[Puja]

Https://www.facebook.com/share/182ue1CEHx/

[morepork]

It seems winning pennsylvania is a must for vote candidates

Maybe our man on the ground is going door to door canvassing instead of keeping us up to date. Good luck morepork, hopefully a completely Democratic process takes place

I got to see Jazzy Jeff and all. There is no way Philly is going red peeps. The measured political eloquence of young engaged Black men here is a beautiful sight to behold. I gave one my students a ride into the event, meet his family and group of peers and had fantastically frank discussion with them. They were really interested in a Kiwi take on the never ending Civil War hangover in the US. White boys here don’t even know when the Civil Rights and Voter Registration acts were passed. They also told me I need a proper haircut so I’m headed to a barber shop in North Philly followed by ribs with a community mentor on Saturday. I’ve really missed being on the ground in this city.

I’m definitely on the ground. Mood is definitely tense. Harris is doing a gig in Philly tonight. I’m going mainly because the Roots will be playing. I’ll be voting tomorrow (lining up for hours on a fucking work day). The prospect of a woman being potentially in charge has just brought all the crackers out of the woodwork. It’s sad. Black woman scary.

Have a great vote - give Trump another taste of democracy.

[morepork]

I got to see Jazzy Jeff and all. There is no way Philly is going red peeps. The measured political eloquence of young engaged Black men here is a beautiful sight to behold. I gave one my students a ride into the event, meet his family and group of peers and had fantastically frank discussion with them. They were really interested in a Kiwi take on the never ending Civil War hangover in the US. White boys here don’t even know when the Civil Rights and Voter Registration acts were passed. They also told me I need a proper haircut so I’m headed to a barber shop in North Philly followed by ribs with a community mentor on Saturday. I’ve really missed being on the ground in this city.