How much will the EPS change between now and 2019??

[Scrumhead]

As time goes on, I think Eddie's plans are becoming more apparent and his squad selections seem to drive towards a more specific evolution of a game plan in the build up to 2019. With that in mind, I've been thinking about the potential changes we're likely to see between now and Japan.

IMO any changes would pretty much boil down to three things: age, the likelihood of better players coming through to replace the players that aren't the longer-term solution and tactical incompatibility with Eddie's game plan.

I would be tempted to include any of the less established/uncapped players. However, Eddie's selections are based-upon who can deliver what he's looking for, so until we can make a better assessment on whether the likes of Jones, Williams etc. can do that, I'm focusing on the guys we've already seen at test level.

My thoughts are as follows:

Forwards:

Mullan - Good solid club player, but will be 32 in 2019 and will likely be overtaken by Genge, Hepburn, Rapava-Ruskin, Auterac etc.

Hartley - For all his leadership qualities and unbeaten record as captain, I think Hartley is facing a real challenge to stay involved for the next 3 years with George, Cowan-Dickie and Taylor well-placed to compete for the starting shirt. There's a possibility that he could stick around and take on a similar role to Mealamu's in the last World Cup, but IMO if he loses his starting place, I think he'll be hard pressed to stay in the squad.

Haskell- Can be relied upon to keep himself in peak physical condition, but toe injuries are a nightmare (Tom Wood’s never been the same since), so I don’t think it’s a given that he’ll be able to come back and replicate his performances pre-injury. He’ll also be 34 come 2019, so as much as his experience of two World Cups could be valuable, sadly, I think it will be a stretch.

Robshaw- Like Haskell, one the fittest members of the squad and although he’ll be 33 in 2019, I think he’ll still be an option. However, I think his main challenge will be holding-off the competition from younger, more dynamic options at 6.

Harrison* - I may be wrong but right now, I think Harrison may well be a stop-gap solution. Eddie has named him as an injury-replacement, so I don't think his squad place is that secure and I’d say there’s a good chance of him being overtaken by younger options with better long-term potential. For example, Evans is an obvious contender and is already in the squad, as well as Underhill when he's availabile for selection.

Morgan* - like Harrison, he's been named as an injury replacement, so he's still on the fringes. However, I think he may surprise a few people and impress Eddie. Unlike Beaumont and Hughes, he is a proven test-class 8 and considering he'll only be 30 in 2019, I'd hesitate to rule him out.

Outs: Mullan, Haskell

At Risk: Hartley, Robshaw, Harrison, Morgan

Backs:

Care - Very lucky to stay in the squad on current form. His experience has some value, but with Robson, Spencer and Simpson all on Eddie's radar, his days in the squad are surely numbered.

Tuilagi - I don't want to write him off, but until he can overcome his injuries and sustain fitness and form, he can't really be included. Eddie's more or less said so too ... 'we're not waiting for him'

Te'o - Maybe a bit unfair to include Te'o on the basis that we haven't seen him play at test level, but he'll be 32 in 2019 and I just don't see him as any more than a stop-gap solution.

Rokoduguni - Possibly harsh, but he's already 29 and unless he can really seize his chance in the AIs, I think there's a real risk, his chance may have passed him by. If he can't force himself in to the starting XV now, I don't see him doing so by 2019 and age will start counting against him. I know players like Habana are still lethally effective in their 30s, but Habana's got 120+ caps behind him. Rightly or wrongly, Roko currently has 1.

Yarde*- Out of form and only in as an injury replacement and I think he's very much at risk of younger players coming through over the next 3 years to take his place. Right now, I just don't picture a scenario where he will be genuinely putting his hand up to be a first-choice winger, so I think he's very vulnerable to slipping out of the picture entirely come 2019.

Brown - Also out of form and hasn't really performed at his peak for England since the World Cup. He'll be 34 come 2019 and as much as he's the man in possession of the shirt, I think he'll struggle to make it all the way to Japan.

Goode - Personally, I quite like Goode, but Eddie hasn't shown any great faith in him so far and while I think it's entirely possible, he'll remain in the squad, I just don't see him ever being first choice.

Outs: Care, Te'o, Brown

At Risk: Tuilagi, Goode, Rokoduguni, Yarde

A bit long-winded, but it's a more graphic illustration of our problem areas in the back row, at 12 and in the back three.

Possible Ins are always hard to predict 3 years in advance, but my take on the uncapped/unselected players in with a genuine shout is as follows:

Forwards: Hepburn (Exeter), Rapava-Ruskin (Worcester), Auterac (Bath), Walker (Bath), Barrow (Leicester), Symons (Wasps), Witty (Newcastle), Nott (Sale), Underhill (Ospreys), Ludlam (Northampton), Ben (and/or) Tom Curry (Sale)

Backs: Mitchell (Sale), Burns (Gloucester), Mallinder (Northampton), Williams (L. Irish), Francis (Auckland Blues), Tompkins (Saracens), James (Sale), Earle (Saracens), Humphreys (Worcester), Malins (Saracens), Shillcock (Worcester)

Let's see how wrong I am in 3 years time ...

[Digby]

How far back would one have to go to find that Lawes and Launchbury were the nailed on picks at lock?

There is a problem in English rugby that we often have a lot of players who might rise to being class players at tier 1 test level, and we can tend to rotate through that group without seizing on those who will go on to deliver (and of course it might be none of our strength in meh player base would be good enough to rise to the level of a Conrad or George Smith)

[Scrumhead]

I haven't mentioned the locks because I see no reason why we'd change it and lots of good reasons not to.

IIRC, the Lawes/Launchbury partnership was broken-up by injuries rather than by choice. Since then Itoje and Kruis have played too well to be dropped.

Barring injuries or massive dips in form, I'd like to see us retain the same five locks, unless someone else absolutely demands being selected. Same with the props. Mullan is expendable, but the experience of Mako, Marler and Cole in particular will be invaluable.

[Oakboy]

Well presented and interesting.

I would be fascinated to hear more detail of how EJ sees the way forward. So far, we know that he is a practical selector. What I mean by that is that he seems to give players clear messages on what he wants and picks those who deliver. It may sound simple and obvious but, at the point that he took over, how many of us would have selected Robshaw, Haskell and Hartley?

His practicality extends to keeping it safe and simple if classier options are not there - Farrell at 12; Youngs or Care at 9. He also perseveres with a club pairing in the 2nd row when neither player individually (yet, in Itoje's case) is as good as Launchbury.

What it all amounts to is setting up a core and challenging players to prove they can steal a shirt. Arguing about this or that individual, as we all love to do, becomes pointless.

Eddie may well just adjust as injury absences force him to. Slade may get a go at 12 if Farrell is not fit, for example. I think that will be his way through to 2019. He is prepared to accept limitations at 9, 12 and 7 if necessary. As always, a bad run of results may change everything but I'd not bet on that happening. His core 23 has improvement within it, IMO, even if I don't like some of the individuals.

[Scrumhead]

Exactly - it's a cheesy turn of phrase, but 'evolution rather than revolution' is definitely the order of the day. With the possible exception of Kvesic, I don't think most fans have any real issues with Eddie's preferred 23.

I think we can already see the evolutionary approach in the way that the likes of Evans, Ewels and Marchant have been fast-tracked in to the squad to learn and develop in the Senior set-up.

Clearly some positions will see more turnover than others due to the age of the incumbent players but I don't see Eddie making changes for the sake of it and, in the main, I think he is fair when it comes to form etc.

There was an interesting quote in one of Eddie's interviews where he said: "If it's not good enough, we'll find other players or we'll develop them". I think that's pretty telling in terms of his mindset.

[jngf]

We need to have blooded at least two specialist opensides with the pace and linking skills to mix it with the backs. The Joe Worsley template works for some tests but has limitations. Kvesic, Evans, Underhill, Thompson and Ludlam all might have something to other here.

[Scrumhead]

100% agree. I took the "if it's not good enough, we'll find other players or we'll develop them" as a veiled reference to the 7 situation.

Given that Kvesic has been overlooked again, I'd assume he's considered 'not good enough', while I can see Evans, Underhill, Ludlam and potentially the Curry twins being fast-tracked for development.

I think Thompson's age may have counted against him. It sounds as though it was a straight shoot-out between Thompson and Jones for a 7 spot. I think Thompson is a late-bloomer, but as much as Eddie may have been tempted to pick him, at 24, Jones probably has more of a development curve over the next 3 years. Similarly, Thompson could have been picked ahead of Morgan, but was probably edged out by the fact that Morgan is a known quantity at test level.

[Oakboy]

Eddie prefers a good rugby player out of position to a sub-standard specialist. He'd pick an outstanding natural 7 tomorrow if there was one. There is not.

It was the same at 12 - Farrell over Burrell. Injury to Farrell may see Slade or T'eo step up successfully.

For me, the biggest single problem position is 9 - because the same principle does not work.

[Scrumhead]

Eddie prefers a good rugby player out of position to a sub-standard specialist. He'd pick an outstanding natural 7 tomorrow if there was one. There is not.

It was the same at 12 - Farrell over Burrell. Injury to Farrell may see Slade or T'eo step up successfully.

For me, the biggest single problem position is 9 - because the same principle does not work.

Yeah - I agree. 9 is an interesting one though. The fact that he selected Robson and Simpson in the provisional squad and then Robson and Spencer in the formal EPS, suggests that he's not 100% satisfied with Youngs and Care.

If Robson performs well in training and keeps-up his form for Wasps, I think he'll get some game time off the bench in the AIs. It's not like Eddie's going to learn much about Care that he doesn't already know and based-upon his comments on some players 'not playing like internationals', Care's got to vulnerable.

Robson would be my preference, but it's good to see Spencer finally getting some decent game time with Sarries - particularly as his boot offers a useful option.

[fivepointer]

Its 7, 9, 12 and 15.

I'm pretty confident we've got the other spots well covered but its the same old problem positions.

EJ has said that he's making do at 7 until a really good specialist comes along. There must be hopes that Evans can come through in the next couple of years.

At 9 we are now at least picking Robson and Spencer, so thats a step forward. Both Care and Youngs could be gone over the next season or two.

12 now does offer some options. Its a case of picking someone and giving them a run. Henry Slade your time is now.

Brown is FB for now but Watson and Haley must start to seriously push him.

On hooker its a position that we were scratching our heads over not so long ago but now have 4 viable options in Hartley (who may not last more than another season), George, LCD and Taylor. I wouldnt discount McGuigan and there's jack Walker to consider as well.

[Beasties]

Its 7, 9, 12 and 15.

I'm pretty confident we've got the other spots well covered but its the same old problem positions.

EJ has said that he's making do at 7 until a really good specialist comes along. There must be hopes that Evans can come through in the next couple of years.

At 9 we are now at least picking Robson and Spencer, so thats a step forward. Both Care and Youngs could be gone over the next season or two.

12 now does offer some options. Its a case of picking someone and giving them a run. Henry Slade your time is now.

Brown is FB for now but Watson and Haley must start to seriously push him.

On hooker its a position that we were scratching our heads over not so long ago but now have 4 viable options in Hartley (who may not last more than another season), George, LCD and Taylor. I wouldnt discount McGuigan and there's jack Walker to consider as well.

Positional deficits can and do happen over time. The hooker example is a good one. It's not that long ago we couldn't find a lock of any sort or indeed TH to replace the aging incumbents. Now we seem spoiled for choice.

Eddie has made comments fairly recently that sound as if he rates Youngs rather worryingly. I'd hoped he was sticking with him mainly for the sake of continuity while the team built up wins, but I'm not so sure now. I'd love Robson to get a go in the AIs but I'll believe he wants to change Youngs when I see it and not before.

[kk67]

I think it's more cogent to consider how world rugby will develop in the next 2 years. England are now going to try and match NZ. There will be machinations and fiddles.....but they are all going to have to play expansive, quick ball, high continuity.
And it's going to be fecking brill for all of us that aren't playing.

That 2013 championship game between NZ v SA and the subsequent NZ v IRE games were a seminal moment. All rugby is now judged on that bench mark.

[Scrumhead]

Some interesting stuff in here ...

I got a few of the less obvious calls right with Francis and Ludlam included and nailed the ‘outs’, although they were a lot easier to anticipate.

I’m not sure what I was smoking with Dom Barrow, James Mitchell (I know ...) and Perry Humphreys mind you I’ll defend Auterac though as he was looking very good at the time.

Most of the players I suggested that are yet to be capped are still in with a good shout (Malins, Tompkins etc.).

[Puja]

Great necro!

Puja

[Scrumhead]

The one slightly sad reference was to ‘Jones’. For a minute I wasn’t sure who I meant and then I realised I was talking about Sam Jones. He could well have been in the mix but for the infamous judo incident.

[Which Tyler]

I'm just glad I didn't comment 3 years ago...

[Freddo]

Its 7, 9, 12 and 15.

I'm pretty confident we've got the other spots well covered but its the same old problem positions.

Not much has changed other than finally having a couple of specialist 7s fighting it out.

[Timbo]

Its 7, 9, 12 and 15.

I'm pretty confident we've got the other spots well covered but its the same old problem positions.

Not much has changed other than finally having a couple of specialist 7s fighting it out.

We’re significantly better off at 7, as you say.

But we are also better off at 12 and 15 imo. Tuilagi and Francis being in the mix for 12 is a step forwards, and while Daly gets some criticism, he’s an upgrade on Brown.

[Scrumhead]

Agreed re. Tuilagi, but I’m not convinced Daly is a better fullback than Brown. He may be a better all round player, but I still have real reservations about him at 15.

[Banquo]

Agreed re. Tuilagi, but I’m not convinced Daly is a better fullback than Brown. He may be a better all round player, but I still have real reservations about him at 15.

Indeed.

[Mellsblue]

Agreed re. Tuilagi, but I’m not convinced Daly is a better fullback than Brown. He may be a better all round player, but I still have real reservations about him at 15.

Indeed.

Thirded.

[Timbo]

I think you guys have forgotten how infuriating and bang average Brown was for much of his last 3 years as an England player.

[Scrumhead]

I’m not blind to Brown’s shortcomings, but there is no denying that he is still a very good defensive fullback.

Daly, for all his undoubted ability, has not convinced at 15. He looks good coming forward, but outright poor defensively.

If we’re looking to win a World Cup, a safe fullback is more useful than a flashy, but flaky alternative.

Anyway, it’s irrelevant given Eddie’s mind is made up.

[fivepointer]

I would have ditched Brown before Jones but there is no denying Daly hasnt exactly shone.
Been a major surprise to me that Watson hasnt been tried at FB in the 2 warm up games.

[Which Tyler]

I would have ditched Brown before Jones but there is no denying Daly hasnt exactly shone.
Been a major surprise to me that Watson hasnt been tried at FB in the 2 warm up games.

Agreed, I'd have had Watson, Woodward and Haley variously fighting for the shirt over the last 3 years or so.
But the last 6 months? That's be Brown, with Watson getting these warm-ups