Statistic of the Day

[rowan]

So this weekend's Rugby Championship fixtures are a repeat of last year's World Cup semi-finals. Will the results be any different? Probably not, except this time the Wallabies v Pumas clash might be closer than the All Blacks v Boks.

[rowan]

Julian & Ardie Savea become the first brothers to score for the All Blacks in the same test - ever!

[cashead]

Quick maths - the average (mean) winning margin for the All Blacks in the Rugby Champs so far this year has been 29 points (rounded down from 29.25).
Their average winning margin for their last 5 test matches (i.e. Rugby Champs plus test 3 against Wales) becomes 31.4.
If we look at the entirety of 2016, it's still at around 27 (the first two tests, where the margin was 18 and 14 respectively drags it down a bit).

The All Blacks scored a total of 16 tries in the 3-test series against Wales, and in the Rugby Championship so far, have scored 24 tries n 4 tests.

That's 5.333... for the first three, and an average of 6 tries per test in the Rugby Champs (and have, in fact, earned a try-scoring bonus point in every round).

They have scored an average of 5.7 tries per test (or 5/6) so far this year.

[Lizard]

It's nuts, innit?


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[rowan]

Kiss me if I'm wrong, but I believe New Zealand has only lost to three nations at the World Cup - Australia, South Africa and France - and to each of them on 2 occasions.

Meanwhile, South Africa has played in just two World Cup finals, winning both, without either scoring or conceding a try during a combined total of over 3 hours' playing time.

[rowan]

Kiss me if I'm wrong, but I believe Los Pumas have given the All Blacks their closest match so far in this year's Rugby Championship.

Meanwhile, to state the obvious, today's win set a new record for NZ v SA (home & away) in terms of both the margin and the number of points scored, while extending their winning sequence against the Boks to 8. I didn't see it personally, however, opting for the Austria v Bosnia clash via live streaming, which was a much closer encounter.

& I'm now watching Peru v Ecuador...

[Lizard]

Winning streaks of 17

There’s been a lot of talk about the All Blacks winning streak and the “Tier 1” record of 17 straight wins. If you’re going to categorise record holders by tiers then it’s only fair to also consider the strength of the opposition. On this basis, the current All Blacks are perhaps the least impressive, as their streak includes 3 teams practically incapable of winning (“gimmes”), 7 teams you would expect to lose, and only 7 you would expect to possibly provide a real contest (I’ve tried to take into account varying strengths over time, eg FRA 1997-8 were contenders but in 2015-16 were expected to lose). The best I would say is the 1965-69 All Blacks who not only played no minnows at all, but remained undefeated for 3 years, 10 months and 7 days.

All Blacks 2015-16:
AUS x4
SA x3
ARG x3
WAL x3
FRA
TON
GEO
NAM
(3 gimmes, 7 expected, 7 contestable)

All Blacks 2013-14:
ENG 4
FRA 4
AUS 3
ARG 2
SA 2
IRE
JAP
(1 gimme, 7 expected, 9 contestable)

Springboks 1997-98:
AUS 3
IRE 3
NZ 2
ENG 2
FRA 2
SCO 2
WAL 2
ITA
(1 gimme, 7 expected, 9 contestable)

All Blacks 1965-69:
LIO 4
FRA 4
WAL 3
AUS 3
ENG
SCO
SA
(0 gimmes, 7 expected, 10 contestable)

[zer0]

The All Blacks winning run at Eden Park (last loss 3rd July 1994) is older than Anton Lienert-Brown (born 15th April 1995) and Damian McKenzie (born 20th April 1995).

[cashead]

JAP
(1 gimme, 7 expected, 9 contestable)

Hey watch it now, they beat Wales and the Springboks.

[Lizard]

True, but both South Africa and Wales have a habit of occasionally losing to sides that they really should beat. The All Blacks haven't got that habit.

Teams that have beaten the Boks in test matches but not the All Blacks:*
Argentina x2
Ireland x6
Japan
Scotland x5
Wales (since 1953) x2

Teams that have beaten Wales but not the All Blacks:
Argentina x5
Canada
Fiji
Ireland x50
Italy x2
Romania x2
Samoa x4
Scotland x48


*Excluding teams NZ has never played eg South America & Cavaliers


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[rowan]

Japan beat Wales 23 - 8 two years ago in an official test

[Lizard]

Japan beat Wales 23 - 8 two years ago in an official test

I was sure I had put that in! Bugger.

[rowan]

Interesting story from the NZ Herald. I thought Cyprus' record was unofficial though, owing to the abundance of non-eligible expats in their team a the time

The All Blacks will set a rugby world record of sorts should they beat the Wallabies at Eden Park on Saturday night. But they won't hold THE record. Not yet.

Kieran Read's tier one side can make it 18 straight victories when they face 10-1 outsiders Australia.

But the real test record still belongs to real outsiders - the mighty men from Cyprus, population 1.2 million, who went on a 24-game winning run between 2008 and 2014.

Theirs' is a story of triumph that belongs in another age, another world.

"People have literally put their families on the line, wives have threatened divorces, some boys quit their jobs to play for the country," says their captain Marko Mladenovic, 25, an 86kg openside flanker raised in the coastal city of Limassol.

Speaking from Edinburgh where he lives while playing for Falkirk, Mladenovic - whose Serbian parents arrived in Cyprus seeking refuge from the war in Yugoslavia 25 years ago - reveals the other side of test rugby.

Mladenovic was an unremarkable 13-year-old footballer going off the rails following his parents' divorce when his mother spied a newspaper advertisement for rugby players. The game already had a natural base at British military bases retained after the 1960 treaty of independence. But a rugby-loving South African wanted to expand the game, thus the advert.

Just four years later, Mladenovic was making his test debut from the bench, away to Azerbaijan, in a "horror show" which turned out to be the first match of the 24-game streak.

"It is probably the most famous Cyprus rugby story - it was crazy," says Mladenovic, recalling the players paid $600 each to play that game.

"We had to wait two or three hours at border control to get into the country. They didn't want to issue us a visa.

There were brown stains on the sheets, some of the boys saw rats

"The rooms were really bad. There were brown stains on the sheets, some of the boys saw rats. And this is the hotel Azerbaijan rugby put forward to us. No one wanted to eat anything, in case we got sick. We had barely slept, and didn't eat on the day of the game.

"We rocked up to this ground which looked like something from a zombie film. Everyone was wearing black. The rugby posts had mattresses tied around them as protectors. This is an international rugby fixture? There were bits of grass here and there, but it was just a piece of land."

In a classic rags to riches contrast, the next match was in money-drenched Monaco, with a whole different class of rats. This six-year journey had a bit of everything.

It included the luckiest of wins against Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2009, when the home side's goalkicker missed four easy shots in deep snow and Cyprus escaped with an 8-6 victory.

In Latvia, the Mouflons - named after wild Cyprus sheep - ended up in the courtyard of a mental institution while searching for a practice area. Under international rules, the home side provides facilities for one training session. Dedicated Cyprus like to have two, and the players use Google maps to locate vacant land.

"We saw a bit of grass and started approaching. This guy comes up and says, 'do you know where you are? You shouldn't be here'," says Mladenovic.

Things have improved on the home front. When Cyprus entered the international arena in 2007, they were shunned by their national sports funding agency so played at the military bases, officially foreign territory. They now share a nice football stadium in Paphos, where one of the island's three rugby clubs are based. Funding has improved, but some players still offer to pay their way for away games.

Mladenovic made it all the way to Scottish premier league side Currie, and earns $130 a game for Falkirk which supplements his teacher aid wage.

"What made this possible is all we went through as a brotherhood. It hardens you up, going to Azerbaijan to play rugby," he says.

"So much has happened that you couldn't even script it. It was only something I started doing as a hobby."

But there are other home-grown successes like Mladenovic, including Fidias Efthymiou, good enough to make the Clermont Auvergne academy in France.

Cyprus have won promotion of sorts, playing in a geographically re-jigged European competition alongside Malta, Croatia, Andorra and Israel. A new generation of Cypriot players will try to emulate their predecessors, no easy task and especially when a player like giant forward Chris Dicomidis struggles to get released from his Welsh club.

Like their rugby forefathers, the latest Mouflons go into battle with a Spartan war cry etched on the back of their jerseys. In a nutshell, it's better to be carried home dead on your shield than to fling it away in defeat. Since Latvia ended the golden streak with a 39-20 win in late 2014, those defeats have mounted.

But these tiny national teams remain proud in the shadows. Lithuania, who held the old record of 18-straight wins, congratulated the Wallabies in 2012 when a draw in Brisbane stopped the All Blacks two short of matching the mark. The Cyprus run ended in Latvia, and was emotionally charged.

"It was a tough day - there were a few tears and it was hard to take," admits Mladenovic, who let business studies at Bristol University lapse when Friday exams clashed with a Saturday test.

"We thought we'd get a lot more recognition for our world record and, from that point of view, it was disappointing. But if the All Blacks go on to break it, fair enough. They are the best team of the last decade by far.

"A lot of people say we don't play the top nations, but all the challenges we had to overcome, to play the way we did, means the record is a big deal for us. As cheesy as it sounds, though, the best thing was the friendships we made, the stories, the things we went through.

"I get goose bumps when I think about the journey. It's just a celebration of a great bunch of players who did really well, who overcame adversity to represent their country."

Cyprus' run of 24 straight wins

2008
Azerbaijan 37 - 3 (away)
Monaco 24 - 3 (home)

2009
Slovakia 33 - 7 (home)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 8 - 6 (away)
Monaco 44 - 5 (away)

2010
Azerbaijan 59 - 0 (home)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 15 - 0 (home)
Greece 33 - 13 (away)

2011
Bulgaria 55 - 8 (home)
Finland 70 - 10 (home)
Luxembourg 50 - 0 (away)
Luxembourg 48 - 7 (home)

2012
Bulgaria 94 - 3 (away)
Greece 72 - 5 (home)
Finland 52 - 5 (away)
Austria 54 - 20 (away)
Slovenia 49 - 8 (home)

2013
Bulgaria 79 - 10 (home)
Hungary 16 - 15 (away)
Slovenia 34 - 3 (away)
Austria 22 - 8 (home)

2014
Bulgaria 46 - 15 (away)
Hungary 46 - 13 (home)
Andorra 30 - 10 (home)

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/ar ... d=11732581

[zer0]

The whole 'first tier' caveat is a bit silly, so I think Cyprus should indeed be properly recognised for holding the record, regardless of who they played. In saying that, I would have no problem with the All Blacks taking it off them, should they manage it.

On a related note, if the All Blacks get through this year unbeaten, then tests 23, 24 and 25 would be against the Lions. Could make the series a bit more interesting.

[Lizard]

If you're going to have a "Tier 1" record, then matches against non-Tier 1 sides should not count. So we're only on 15 by my count.


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[cashead]

Personally, I find the attempts to de-legitimise the Cypriot record to be bullshit, especially when critiquing the quality of their opponents. They're playing teams that are about the same level as them? What's the issue?

[Lizard]

Ah but they weren't when they set the record. They started at the bottom of the European promo/relegation system and climbed to their level of incompetence and then started losing.


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[Spy]

Goal-kicking has been the weak point of Beauden Barrett's otherwise stellar year. He was poor during Super Rugby, then seemed to get things to a good-enough level in the early part of the international season, although he never looked at ease, before having a mare toward the end of the RC. Apparently he's statistically the worst goal-kicker in international rugby: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/ar ... d=11736133

There's plenty of stats in the article. One that caught my eye, and I find it hard to believe that it is true is: Barrett hasn't kicked a single kick beyond 30m this year. I assume that's the international season only, not super Rugby. Still, pretty surprising if it's true.

[rowan]

Personally, I find the attempts to de-legitimise the Cypriot record to be bullshit, especially when critiquing the quality of their opponents. They're playing teams that are about the same level as them? What's the issue?

Kiss me if I'm wrong, but I always thought the controversy was over the legitimacy of their own players, not their opponents - who appear entirely legitimate. Weren't Cyprus still using (illegitimate) expats at the time?

[canta_brian]

Goal-kicking has been the weak point of Beauden Barrett's otherwise stellar year. He was poor during Super Rugby, then seemed to get things to a good-enough level in the early part of the international season, although he never looked at ease, before having a mare toward the end of the RC. Apparently he's statistically the worst goal-kicker in international rugby: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/ar ... d=11736133

There's plenty of stats in the article. One that caught my eye, and I find it hard to believe that it is true is: Barrett hasn't kicked a single kick beyond 30m this year. I assume that's the international season only, not super Rugby. Still, pretty surprising if it's true.

See I still don't see why we need to have a goalkicker wearing the 10 jersey. It seems one of the simplest things to shift the responsibility of. I don't necessarily know who is the best option within the team at the moment. but if it is not Barrett we should be able to choose another option or two I would have thought.

[Spy]

See I still don't see why we need to have a goalkicker wearing the 10 jersey. It seems one of the simplest things to shift the responsibility of. I don't necessarily know who is the best option within the team at the moment. but if it is not Barrett we should be able to choose another option or two I would have thought.

There's no reason, other than needing to specifically change the balance of the side in order to bring another kicker in, as I'm not aware of anyone else outside our 10's having any goal-kicking experience/ability. It'd be great to say "Hey, Ben Smith - you're kicking now", but I don't think either he nor anyone else in the side can kick.

[J Dory]

Dagg kicked at least one, nailed it too.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Presumably there isn't anyone better but feck me that's shocking kicking.

[Spy]

True. Never seen Dagg be "the kicker" for a game at any level though. Maybe he has once or twice. Just seems like a pretty thin backup plan. It'd be nice to have some one who is actually recognised as a kicker doing the job. Although having a policy of having 2 recognised kickers on the park just in case Barrett has a mare is unrealistic, as it's bound to compromise other aspects of play.

The answer, really, is for Barrett to work at becoming a better goalkicker. He's been great, but unless he gets his kicking up to a reasonable level it will eventually cost us a test match. I'm sure he's capable of doing so, he's just had a bit of the yips this year.

[canta_brian]

My question is more along the lines of why has goal kicking become a mandatory part of being a first five eighth?