November tours

[Lizard]

I'm guessing there will be specific match threads for some games, and no doubt Rowan will report on the Tier 2 matches in his Global Results thread. So this thread is for general discussion, overall results and Tier 1 matches that don't have their own thread.

This weekend:
USA v NZ Maori
Japan v Arg
Wales v Aus
Baabaas v SA
Ire v NZL

Match of the round is probably Wales v Wallabies, which should give us some idea of whether Aussie is actually crap or was just made to look that way by NZ and a decent England side.

I'm picking a SH sweep this weekend.
The Maori squad is not ridiculously strong, but should account for the Yanks.
Argentina should not struggle against Japan as long as they play within themselves for at least 60% of the match.
Wales still have a psychological block against SANZAR teams.
The Barbarians squad is pretty strong and could well cause an upset, which I would count as an SH win given that all the Barbarians are from there.
The All Blacks will do their 15 minutes-in-top-gear thing again, to see off Ireland.

[rowan]

I'm more of a tier 3 fan, actually, but, yes, I'll be reporting all the results on the Global Rugby Results thread, as usual. I've already figured out we'll see 62 nations in action between now and Xmas, from Gibraltar to China and Algeria to PNG, & that's not counting the Maori or Baabaas, of course. I'm just hoping I'll be able to stream a few games (without the link disappearing in injury time as the winning try is about to be scored!!!) I agree with your predictions, though Wales definitely have a chance. The rest look like forgone conclusions to me.

[rowan]

1st half dozen or so results up on the General Rugby forum. Big surprise so far was Holland thumping Ukraine

[morepork]

Wales are just completely shitting the bed.

[Len]

Wales are pants. Cuthbert lol

[rowan]

As I just commented on another thread, this really puts the Kiwis dominance of the Rugby Championship into perspective. A lot of people were saying Australia were in a shambles. I begged to differ. If you judge any team by their results against the All Blacks you'll come to the conclusion they're in a shambles. & these are the Autumn tours when the southern nations are usually at their lowest ebb. Still, Wales just pulled one back. It ain't over til it's over...

[morepork]

Wales are just so negative.

[Lizard]

Match of the round is probably Wales v Wallabies, which should give us some idea of whether Aussie is actually crap or was just made to look that way by NZ and a decent England side.

Well, that question seems to have been answered.

I'm picking a SH sweep this weekend.
The Maori squad is not ridiculously strong, but should account for the Yanks.
Argentina should not struggle against Japan as long as they play within themselves for at least 60% of the match.
Wales still have a psychological block against SANZAR teams.
The Barbarians squad is pretty strong and could well cause an upset, which I would count as an SH win given that all the Barbarians are from there.
The All Blacks will do their 15 minutes-in-top-gear thing again, to see off Ireland.

Looking good so far

[rowan]

KaBoom! Seems neither of us saw this coming.

[rowan]

How about the re-match in Dublin in 2 weeks' time? Anyone brave enough to go for an Irish double?

Not me. I think the All Blacks will exact sweet revenge, but I'll be happy to be proved wrong...

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Wales are just so negative.

It's Gats blueprint. It has been for over a decade. It's depressing. Just be thankful there's no chance now he'l ever coach the ABs or even a NZ Super franchise. I wouldn't surprised to see him rock up in the republic though.

[morepork]

He'll end up in France to continue his anti-rugby at a domestic level.

[Lizard]

Coming up this weekend:

Italy v South Africa – South Africa is a bit shit at the moment but surely not shittier than Italy (who against the All Blacks showed none of the ambition of, say, Japan)

Wales v Japan – Wales must be favourites but we all know what a motivated Japan can do and this is the biggest scalp still available to them this year following home losses to Scotland and Argentina.

England v Fiji – England should do this at a canter, unfortunately.

Scotland v Argentina – one of the more intriguing matches, with both sides coming off narrow losses, but I expect the game to be fairly dire. If forced to pick a winner, I would reluctantly go for Scotland with the home advantage and the Pumas being poorer on the road.

Ireland v New Zealand - potential humdinger (see my specific thread). NZ have to win this or the universe will collapse in on itself.

France v Aussie – until seeing how France took Samoa apart, and how close Scotland came to an upset, I would have had Aussie down as a dead cert here. As it is, if the famously inconsistent French can repeat that mercurial display and if as expected the Wallabies are forced to rest some 1st XV starters to get through a gruelling Grand Slam + France schedule, a boil-over could well be on the cards. Hard to pick but I’m going for French inconsistency to grant the Aussies a breather here.

[Lizard]

So, what have we learned?

Argentina:
1. The RC is a good school
2. The RC is tiring
3. Ambitions is great, skill and accuracy would be better

Australia:
1. Improving but still not where they should be
2. Cheika is whining bitch
3. Settled inside back combinations might help

England:
1. Obviously good and playing the right style for them
2. Their true strength is hard to gauge given the state of Aussie and SA, and lack of match v NZ.
3. Eddie Jones still has the dressing room

Fiji:
1. Needs serious investment
2. Needs more test matches
3. Needs to better be able to retain and use its wealth of player talent

France:
1. Not a shambles anymore
2. No-one knows why or for how long
3. Have discovered Fiji

Georgia:
1. No longer a novelty act
2. Would benefit from a higher level of annual tournament
3. Didn’t see enough to come up with a 3rd point

Ireland:
1. No longer have an All Blacks monkey on their back (so the RWC play-off monkey might be getting lonely there)
2. Are currently looking like the top side they’ve previously threatened to become
3. Are yet to demonstrate that this is a long-term thing

Italy:
1. Should be applauded for beating SA but…
2. Are now confirmed non-Top 10 material
3. Are now visibly devaluing the 6N

Japan:
1. Seems to be doing a lot right
2. Gaining credibility
3. Could perhaps use a higher quality annual tournament

New Zealand:
1. The Men in Black are, in fact, mortal
2. It’s tiring winning 18 tests in a row
3. Brodie Retallick is worth his weight in gold

Samoa:
1. Made France look very good
2. Needs more test matches
3. Could use more matches against better teams

Scotland:
1. On the up and looking positive
2. Needs to think about improving the quality of their opposition outside of the 6N
3. Should provide more than a couple of token Lions this time

South Africa:
1. Worst they’ve been in at least a decade and perhaps since readmission
2. The laager mentality that has seen the Boks succeed despite political and domestic shambles isn’t enough anymore
3. Coetzee should ask his video guy to pull out the Lions highlights reel, and reconsider his philosophy

Tonga:
1. Should be applauded for a first win over Italy this century
2. Could use more matches against better teams
3. Didn’t see enough to come up with a 3rd point

Wales:
1. Look like shit
2. Getting the wins they should though
3. Profit?

[Spiffy]

Good points all. For me the most notable is the demise of South Africa. One of the two best teams in the world since the inception of international rugby, they have utterly gone down the tubes. They have to scrap the whole coaching team, look at quotas, how they play the game, start fresh etc. The irony is that they have some very good players who are just not getting picked and no kind of game plan/tactics at all. They must move on from the old notion of just physically blattering opponents into submission. That idea is long gone.

[cashead]

Yeah, the "what the fuck happened to you, South Africa?" should be the big talking point. It's certainly their worst return on an EOYT since 2002, but at least Straeuli could argue that he rested a bunch of his top players.

To an extent, I think Coetzee has a point when he says that he's hampered by a broken team. There were structural issues to begin with when he was appointed, and their relative success prior to this year was pretty much stalling things before seemingly all the chickens in the universe, and the universe is infinite, have all come home to roost simultaneously.

[cashead]

Cheika also definitely does have a point, and it's actually the exact same argument that Hansen was making after the ABs v. Ireland test last week, only without the tact or delicacy that Shag could summon. Some of the calls that weren't made, he has every right to be pissed off about, especially in a game that was so close.

[canta_brian]

So, what have we learned?



South Africa:
1. Worst they’ve been in at least a decade and perhaps since readmission
2. The laager mentality that has seen the Boks succeed despite political and domestic shambles isn’t enough anymore
3. Coetzee should ask his video guy to pull out the Lions highlights reel, and reconsider his philosophy

Wales:
1. Look like shit
2. Getting the wins they should though
3. Profit?

Oddly, both teams played awfully. Wales got results almost despite this. I wouldn't write off the saffers too quick. They featured in a super rugby final this year and a world cup semi final the year before.

Wales on the other hand look like they are on the wane. They still look 1 demensional at best. Even when they win it is not in a particularly attractive way. If it all comes down to brute force, there is only so far that can take you.

[tigran]

Cheika should shut it, Australia won against France thanks a try that was never to be allowed even though Kuridriani did an exceptional move... Touching the flag is not allowed...

And what about the last scrum that should have resulted in a penalty ?

Novès said it, the ref has admitted these errors...

[tigran]

ANd you guys don't know why France is not a shamble anymore..
we know why..

1) Novès has been the most successfull french coach for two decades, winning 20 french titles with Toulouse and four european cups, both records of these comps.

He's the big competitor and knows how to motivate his troups..

The style of play of France is not the same or a copy of the game of NZ like you can read here and there in international forums but the Toulouse'style under Novès...

2)
They have now more time together, wich definitely suits the installation of their style of play..

And be assured this is gonna last for long now, at least under Novès and co...In fact it's only going upward now as this team is only a few months old..

[dk4]

It will be very good for rugby if France maintains/improves from this level.

This year 6N might prove very interesting.

[Which Tyler]

ANd you guys don't know why France is not a shamble anymore..
we know why..

1) Novès has been the most successfull french coach for two decades, winning 20 french titles with Toulouse and four european cups, both records of these comps.

He's the big competitor and knows how to motivate his troups..

The style of play of France is not the same or a copy of the game of NZ like you can read here and there in international forums but the Toulouse'style under Novès...

2)
They have now more time together, wich definitely suits the installation of their style of play..

And be assured this is gonna last for long now, at least under Novès and co...In fact it's only going upward now as this team is only a few months old..

Agreed entirely (expecting - didn't he only win 10?), especialy point 2.
I'm really tempted to put some money on France for RWC19 before the bookies and pundits realise this.

[tigran]

ah yes, sorry, 10 titles...Toulouse won 20 thanks to that style of play, Novès being the follower of those who created it 30 something years ago..

[J Dory]

So who does everyone think will win the Aus v England clash? Too close to call for me, while England should have the advantage being at home, with Aus pretty canned after a long season, something tells me that Aus just might get up for this one. Or not.

[cashead]

Cheika should shut it, Australia won against France thanks a try that was never to be allowed even though Kuridriani did an exceptional move... Touching the flag is not allowed...

Wrong.