But we're not talking about economic risk. We're talking about a vote as a member vs a vote when not a member, which has then moved to leap of faith to stay in the union v leap of faith to get a Brexit that stops the free movement of people.Stones of granite wrote:I don't think there is much difference really. Scots in favour of independence also look at it from the perspective of gain - gaining independence. Both are happy to downplay the economic risk to achieve what they hope to gain.Mellsblue wrote:True, I suppose the only difference is that those Scots are taking a leap of faith to not lose something rather than those Brexiteers who took the leap of faith wanted to gain (in their eyes) something. That's coming at the decision from two very different angles, psychologically speaking.Stones of granite wrote:
Sure, we have a different perspective. The leap of faith that you describe is no different, though, to the leap of faith taken by the pro-Brexit voters, who have decided that the potential economic chaos (in the case of a hard Brexit, as yet unevaluated) of leaving the EU is outweighed by the benefit of not having Polish delis on the High Street.
Personally, in 2014 I believed the economic risk to Scotland was relatively low and massively overstated by the Remain camp. Now, I believe the economic risk of leaving the EU is relatively large for the UK, and as I said before, as a consequence, is also large for Scotland leaving the UK because of the sequence of events.
One is a leap of faith to keep something and one is a leap of faith to gain something. It's widely accepted that people are more reticent about taking that leap when there is a possibility you may lose something.
It's like gambling your house on the toss of a coin but with different rules. The first scenario is best of three, three heads and you win Chatsworth House, two/one heads and you keep your house, all tails and you lose your house and move to a bed sit. The second scenario is best of three as well, three heads and you win Chatsworth House, anything else you just get to keep your house. Which gamble are the general public most likely to take.
If your telling me overriding issue for Scots is getting rid of the right of centre English regardless of the fallout then this is all irrelevant but if being in the EU is as important as Sturgeon is making out then risk aversion is incredibly important.