Brexit delayed

[Stones of granite]

I'd have thought that if we learned one thing last year it was to not take polling too seriously.

Some lessons, it seems, are all too easily forgotten.

Depends which polls you read. Lynton Crosby's and Vote Leave's were pretty accurate.

Lynton Crosby had a poll? Got a link?

[Mellsblue]

Some lessons, it seems, are all too easily forgotten.

Depends which polls you read. Lynton Crosby's and Vote Leave's were pretty accurate.

Lynton Crosby had a poll? Got a link?

No, sorry. I'm fairly certain that he didn't make them public. He didn't work specifically for either side in the referendum but did advise friends/ex-colleagues in both camps. He was so underwhelmed by the pollster working for Stronger In that he undertook his own polls. As far as I know, Vote Leave kept there's under wraps too as they thought being the underdog was a plus.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Depends which polls you read. Lynton Crosby's and Vote Leave's were pretty accurate.

Lynton Crosby had a poll? Got a link?

No, sorry. I'm fairly certain that he didn't make them public. He didn't work specifically for either side in the referendum but did advise friends/ex-colleagues in both camps. He was so underwhelmed by the pollster working for Stronger In that he undertook his own polls. As far as I know, Vote Leave kept there's under wraps too as they thought being the underdog was a plus.

So the people who brought us £350 million to the NHS say they knew all along they were going to win. Aye. Sure.

[canta_brian]

Lynton Crosby had a poll? Got a link?

No, sorry. I'm fairly certain that he didn't make them public. He didn't work specifically for either side in the referendum but did advise friends/ex-colleagues in both camps. He was so underwhelmed by the pollster working for Stronger In that he undertook his own polls. As far as I know, Vote Leave kept there's under wraps too as they thought being the underdog was a plus.

So the people who brought us £350 million to the NHS say they knew all along they were going to win. Aye. Sure.

Now c'mon, we've all seen the headlines about how the nhs is struggling to work out what to spend all the additional money on once we leave.

[Mellsblue]

Lynton Crosby had a poll? Got a link?

No, sorry. I'm fairly certain that he didn't make them public. He didn't work specifically for either side in the referendum but did advise friends/ex-colleagues in both camps. He was so underwhelmed by the pollster working for Stronger In that he undertook his own polls. As far as I know, Vote Leave kept there's under wraps too as they thought being the underdog was a plus.

So the people who brought us £350 million to the NHS say they knew all along they were going to win. Aye. Sure.

No. At that point they knew they were getting hammered on the economy and needed​ something big to change the conversation. During the run in they knew it was close, according to their polling anyway.

[Sandydragon]

Lynton Crosby had a poll? Got a link?

No, sorry. I'm fairly certain that he didn't make them public. He didn't work specifically for either side in the referendum but did advise friends/ex-colleagues in both camps. He was so underwhelmed by the pollster working for Stronger In that he undertook his own polls. As far as I know, Vote Leave kept there's under wraps too as they thought being the underdog was a plus.

So the people who brought us £350 million to the NHS say they knew all along they were going to win. Aye. Sure.

Im pretty confident that Boris did not expect to win. A close loss with credentials secured on the Tory right would have been his dream result.

[Len]

My mates missus who voted leave reckons nobody was fooled by the 350 million a week bus. She is an idiot though.

The look on her face when article 50 is triggered and the real shit storm begins as she gets nothing that she voted for becomes apparent will be amazing.

[Mellsblue]

Im pretty confident that Boris did not expect to win. A close loss with credentials secured on the Tory right would have been his dream result.

Don't conflate Boris with Vote Leave. Boris may have been the queen but others were moving him around the chess board.
When he first declared I think he expected to lose, albeit with the knowledge that he became London Mayor swimming against the political tide. In fact, a lot around him told him it was career suicide as he'd lose and the Notting Hill set would keep him at arms length indefinitely.

[bruce]

See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

[Stones of granite]

See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

What did they say then?

[Donny osmond]

Tl;dr version

"After this week’s supreme court ruling, Sturgeon said: “Is Scotland content for our future to be dictated by an increasingly rightwing Westminster government with just one MP here, or is it better that we take our future into our own hands?” However, so far, this argument has delivered only modest returns, with 12% of no/remain voters switching their vote towards independence.

So why has this small but notable shift not moved the headline numbers? The movement among this group has been offset by a much larger swing among those who voted yes to independence in 2014 but then voted to leave the EU last year. Despite only making up 14% of Scottish voters, 43% of these leave/yes voters have since abandoned their pro-independence position, with 28% now saying they would vote to stay in the union.

The other two groups, remain/yes and leave/no, together make up approximately 37% of Scottish voters and have remained reasonably consistent in their positions on independence in the aftermath of the Brexit vote."

I'd have thought that if we learned one thing last year it was to not take polling too seriously.

Some lessons, it seems, are all too easily forgotten.

2014 Indy ref polling was pretty accurate. And if we're ignoring all polls, what else do we have to look at public opinion? Dramatic headlines aren't gospel, gents.

[Stones of granite]

I'd have thought that if we learned one thing last year it was to not take polling too seriously.

Some lessons, it seems, are all too easily forgotten.

2014 Indy ref polling was pretty accurate. And if we're ignoring all polls, what else do we have to look at public opinion? Dramatic headlines aren't gospel, gents.

Depends how close to the Referendum you look. As close as 1 month before, they were still showing the Yes vote at 35-38% The YouGov poll swung several times between Yes and No winning in the couple of weeks leading up to the Referendum.

[Len]

See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

They certainly insinuated it by saying 'lets give it to tue NHS instead!' On that fucking bus.

I had a chat with an older woman whilst waiting for a train after the referendum who was very excited about the extra 350 million. Even asked me what I thought they should spend it on

[morepork]

See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

They certainly insinuated it by saying 'lets give it to tue NHS instead!' On that fucking bus.

I had a chat with an older woman whilst waiting for a train after the referendum who was very excited about the extra 350 million. Even asked me what I thought they should spend it on

Crack and sex toys.

[Stones of granite]

See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

They certainly insinuated it by saying 'lets give it to tue NHS instead!' On that fucking bus.

I had a chat with an older woman whilst waiting for a train after the referendum who was very excited about the extra 350 million. Even asked me what I thought they should spend it on

Crack and sex toys.

....is what they opted for

[Banquo]

See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

It was the Vote Leave bus that had the words below


But Farage denied saying it, as he wasn't part of the official Vote Leave campaign. So Johnson, Leadsom are pinned with that, as they actually are still in government.

[Mellsblue]

It doesn't explicitly state that a full £350 mil a week would be spent on the NHS but they knew how it would be read and how the masses who'd done no research would read it.
It's bloody underhand and deceitful but it's a clever tactic.

[Stones of granite]

See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

It was the Vote Leave bus that had the words below


But Farage denied saying it, as he wasn't part of the official Vote Leave campaign. So Johnson, Leadsom are pinned with that, as they actually are still in government.

The bus was the most visible, but they also had posters and leaflets printed with the same message.


I have had people tell me that the phrasing is such that it is obviously merely a suggestion of how the money could be spent, but I have 2 problems with that.
1. The £350million figure was a lie in the first place as it gross of the rebate
2. Even if a English Language Professor can show that the phrasing doesn't guarantee that the money would be spent on the NHS, it is clearly intended to strongly suggest to the ordinary voter that that would be the intention.

[morepork]

FAKE NEWS! BEST CAMPAIGN EVER! SAD!

[Banquo]

See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

It was the Vote Leave bus that had the words below


But Farage denied saying it, as he wasn't part of the official Vote Leave campaign. So Johnson, Leadsom are pinned with that, as they actually are still in government.

The bus was the most visible, but they also had posters and leaflets printed with the same message.


I have had people tell me that the phrasing is such that it is obviously merely a suggestion of how the money could be spent, but I have 2 problems with that.
1. The £350million figure was a lie in the first place as it gross of the rebate
2. Even if a English Language Professor can show that the phrasing doesn't guarantee that the money would be spent on the NHS, it is clearly intended to strongly suggest to the ordinary voter that that would be the intention.

agreed, a serious con job. Mind, Remain shared a number of made up scenarios as well.

[Stones of granite]

It was the Vote Leave bus that had the words below


But Farage denied saying it, as he wasn't part of the official Vote Leave campaign. So Johnson, Leadsom are pinned with that, as they actually are still in government.

The bus was the most visible, but they also had posters and leaflets printed with the same message.


I have had people tell me that the phrasing is such that it is obviously merely a suggestion of how the money could be spent, but I have 2 problems with that.
1. The £350million figure was a lie in the first place as it gross of the rebate
2. Even if a English Language Professor can show that the phrasing doesn't guarantee that the money would be spent on the NHS, it is clearly intended to strongly suggest to the ordinary voter that that would be the intention.

agreed, a serious con job. Mind, Remain shared a number of made up scenarios as well.

Yes they did. I was just as unimpressed by their campaign.

[Banquo]

The bus was the most visible, but they also had posters and leaflets printed with the same message.


I have had people tell me that the phrasing is such that it is obviously merely a suggestion of how the money could be spent, but I have 2 problems with that.
1. The £350million figure was a lie in the first place as it gross of the rebate
2. Even if a English Language Professor can show that the phrasing doesn't guarantee that the money would be spent on the NHS, it is clearly intended to strongly suggest to the ordinary voter that that would be the intention.

agreed, a serious con job. Mind, Remain shared a number of made up scenarios as well.

Yes they did. I was just as unimpressed by their campaign.

yep, both just different shades of bollox

[Digby]

And now we have May saying the Scots couldn't vote on independence as they don't know what the Brexit deal will look like, but it's okay we held the Brexit referendum when we didn't even know Brexit meant Brexit and basically that's a hard brexit which isn't remotely what an awful lot of people advocating for leave said about the single market during the referendum.

Scottish independence is actually quite interesting to me in a way it hasn't been in the past, mostly I don't care either way though I fail to see how they pay for an awful lot of stuff, but if they were to remain in the EU then that would be interesting.

[Stones of granite]

And now we have May saying the Scots couldn't vote on independence as they don't know what the Brexit deal will look like, but it's okay we held the Brexit referendum when we didn't even know Brexit meant Brexit and basically that's a hard brexit which isn't remotely what an awful lot of people advocating for leave said about the single market during the referendum.

Scottish independence is actually quite interesting to me in a way it hasn't been in the past, mostly I don't care either way though I fail to see how they pay for an awful lot of stuff, but if they were to remain in the EU then that would be interesting.

I can't see any way that Scotland can remain in the EU now. It looks certain that any Referendum will not happen until Brexit is concluded, then it's too late to remain in. At the earliest, we would be looking at 2020 for independence, and faced with applying for membership as a new State. It's not an attractive prospect (compared with remaining).

[Digby]

And now we have May saying the Scots couldn't vote on independence as they don't know what the Brexit deal will look like, but it's okay we held the Brexit referendum when we didn't even know Brexit meant Brexit and basically that's a hard brexit which isn't remotely what an awful lot of people advocating for leave said about the single market during the referendum.

Scottish independence is actually quite interesting to me in a way it hasn't been in the past, mostly I don't care either way though I fail to see how they pay for an awful lot of stuff, but if they were to remain in the EU then that would be interesting.

I can't see any way that Scotland can remain in the EU now. It looks certain that any Referendum will not happen until Brexit is concluded, then it's too late to remain in. At the earliest, we would be looking at 2020 for independence, and faced with applying for membership as a new State. It's not an attractive prospect (compared with remaining).

These aren't decisions which stand for the ages though. The UK has just voted to leave after having voted to join a good few years back, things change. Of course just because things can change doesn't mean they should or will