Premiership Predictions Thread 2016-17

[Digby]

Premiership Winner:
Saracens

Table order:
01 Saracens
02 Exeter
03 Leicester
04 Northampton
05 Wasps
06 Sale
07 Bath
08 Harlequins
09 Gloucester
10 Newcastle
11 Worcester
12 Bristol

Top try scorer:
Maitland

Top points scorer:
Steenson

Surprise of the season:
Exeter to show off their new signing Campagnaro

Player having a breakthrough season:
Jack Walker, I nearly went for Sinckler playing with discipline, but that's a hope more than expectation

Best signing:
Rob Webber

The Jerome Schuster Award for least effective signing:
Willie Le Roux, not that he's a bad player, far from it, but just way too many very expensive small(ish) backs wanting to act as playmaker through the middle

[Which Tyler]

The Jerome Schuster Award for least effective signing: Kahn Fotuali'i

That is an excellent shout. Actually, I'm now kind of annoyed that I didn't think of him for mine!

Ahem

[Puja]

The Jerome Schuster Award for least effective signing: Kahn Fotuali'i

That is an excellent shout. Actually, I'm now kind of annoyed that I didn't think of him for mine!

Ahem

Let's save the humiliation of iffy predictions for the end of the season when we can get the full measure of embarrassment for our money!

Puja

[Digby]

About the embarrassment, if say hypothetically someone had listed Rob Webber as the best signing and then days later he broke his arm does that add to or lessen the potential for mocking?

[Which Tyler]

Hypothetically speaking, I'd say that injury absolves... unless the player is a known sicknote.

Less hypothetically, suggesting Webber as best signing is ridiculous, regardless of injury

[Mellsblue]

Blimey just had a look back at my predictions. Of the five individuals named for positive awards, three are injured, one is serving a longterm ban and the other is Myler. Luckily, naming Ma'afu as worst signing of the season is a banker.

[Digby]

Hypothetically speaking, I'd say that injury absolves... unless the player is a known sicknote.

Less hypothetically, suggesting Webber as best signing is ridiculous, regardless of injury

I considered in a less complex environment a big powerful player with a point to prove who wouldn't be lost to England and would be on rather less money than some signings would represent take as a whole the best signing for a club. If he'd ended up at Glaws I wouldn't have thought the same, but with Dimes in charge I think he could've done big things, and maybe he still can.

[Scrumhead]

Interesting looking at this mid way through the season too.

Bath and Newcastle have performed way above expectations while Saints have massively underperformed against expectations.

Picamoles has lived-up to his billing although I'd put Matt Scott up there as a surprisingly successful signing.

[Mellsblue]

This is always good for a giggle or, looking at mine, a cry.

[Scrumhead]

Turns out mine was way off ...

Quins are 6th and playing predictably inconsistently which is pretty much what I expected ... I feared worse so I'm OK with that.

Really pleasantly surprised by Newcastle.

[Puja]

I'm actually going to lock this, if it's okay by everyone else. Tends to be most fun leaving it right the way to the end of the season for maximum embarrassment.
Puja

[Puja]

So - the roundup of the Prediction Thread:

Premiership Winner:
Not a single person picked Exeter. Even more impressively, no-one picked anyone but Saracens or Leicester, so we didn't even get the losing finallist (although the Leicester predictions are now far less comedic than they were halfway through the season)!

Table order:
Swindonbri and Gloskarlos the undoubted winners here, picking the correct top 4 (even if not in the right order) and Bristol to be relegated. In terms of the comedically wrong, Bloggs and Timbo put Northampton to finish third and Mells and I put Bath to finish 10th! Honourable mention for Tigerman being the only one to pick Saints finishing 7th and out of the automatic ERC places.

Top try scorer:
Wade was far and away top with 17, which was predicted by Tigersman, Which, Scrumhead, Mikey, Stom, and Nomad. Bit of an obvious one really. Popular shouts of Ashton and Veainu got 9 and 4 respectively.

Top points scorer:
Once again, no-one picked the winner in Jimmy Gopperth, although quite a few picked Danny Cipriani in a triumph of hope over expectation. A few people mentioned Myler, Burns, and Steenson, who were second, fourth, and fifth respectively, but no-one picked the third top scorer in Lozowski, instead plumping for Fazlet (myself included), who was nearly 100 points behind his teammate. Just shows how little we all know, really.

Surprise of the season:
I think these are probably worth taking one at a time:
- Puja: Wade to be a regular for England. HAH!
- Tigersman: Saints missing out on the ERC. Very close - picked them to finish 7th, but didn't account for the playoffs
- Mells: Manu to play for England. Oh dear.
- 5p: Itoje to have a poor game. Several of them, in fact. Mind, they were only really poor compared to his average.
- Which: Davey Wilson to come back to form and fitness and Kvesic to be capped by England. Not your best, Which.
- Scrumhead: Josh Charnley. I think he was surprised by how hard it was. Does that count?
- Timbo: Bath to make top 6. Comfortably. Good shout.
- Mikey: Quins to string more than 1 decent game together. Not sure on this one. They did finish 6th, but did they actually get 2 good games in a row at any point?
- Stom: Bath looking coherent at the end. Not really. They were coherent at the beginning and middle, less so towards the end of the season.
- Bloggs: Wasps fail to make the playoffs and look worse than last season. Well, on the bright side, you've just made me feel better about my poor predicting skills!
- Ilovelamp: Glaws to bench 12T and their midfield start to look better. Great shout, although it's obvious to all what a world-class talent Atkinson is.
- Gloskarlos: Morgan to play well again. He has been playing better, although I don't know we'd count that as "well".
- Swindonbri: Glos having an attacking threat. See above on "better, even if not actively good." Sums up Gloucester's season really.
- Guwuffle: Wasps to challenge the high score record against Zebre. 82-14 did come close to the 90 points that Leicester put on Glasgow in 1997 (I don't want to talk about other Leicester v Glasgow games), but I'm not sure one can really mark this one down as a surprise. Well, maybe to Bloggs, I guess.
- TheNomad: How close it will be. Given that the top three could have finished in any order until near the end of the last games of the regular season and the semis and finals were decided by a total of 6 points, I think we'll give you this one!
- Digby: Exeter to show off their new signing Campagnaro. Good shout. I think Baxter did genuinely forget about him last season.

Breakthrough season:
A lot of calls for Jack Walker, which would've been a possibility if he'd played more than 3 minutes this season. Of course, at least his proponents could point to his injury as the reason for his lack of breakthrough - the people who picked Lewis Ludlam and his mighty 120 minutes of Premiership rugby aren't looking that clever! Eddie Jones single-handedly looked to make Guwuffle's prediction of Nathan Earle come true, despite no-one at Saracens looking that interested. I'd say the winner of this one is 5p for picking Sinckler - coming from Quins reserve to Lions tourist is a hell of a rise.

Best signing:
Hands up who put Matt Toomua down? (Puja, Mells, Stom, Bloggs, and Nomad) He came closer to the Jerome Schuster award after getting a yellow in the opening 15 minutes of his first game (and being lucky not to get a red) and then injuring himself for the rest of the season in his second. Digby hasn't got room to mock with his bizarre choice of Rob Webber. I would've said Beale or Solomona would have to be close to the best signing, but as no-one picked either of them, the winner would be everyone who mentioned Picamoles.

The Jerome Schuster Award for least effective signing:
A few big-name contenders for this one: Toomua, Charnley, Eastmond, but I think the joint winners are Guy Armitage and Nick De Luca, who managed 3 appearances in all competitions between them in Wasps midfield.

Puja

[Stom]

So - the roundup of the Prediction Thread:


Breakthrough season:
A lot of calls for Jack Walker, which would've been a possibility if he'd played more than 3 minutes this season. Of course, at least his proponents could point to his injury as the reason for his lack of breakthrough - the people who picked Lewis Ludlam and his mighty 120 minutes of Premiership rugby aren't looking that clever! Eddie Jones single-handedly looked to make Guwuffle's prediction of Nathan Earle come true, despite no-one at Saracens looking that interested. I'd say the winner of this one is 5p for picking Sinckler - coming from Quins reserve to Lions tourist is a hell of a rise.



Puja

Marchant? He made a breakthrough, too...

[Bloggs]

This thread is fake news, delete it!

[Mellsblue]

This thread is fake news, delete it!

[Mellsblue]

Looking back my vote for best educated guesser is scrumhead. I'm not sure who this swindonbri chap is but rocking up once a year and getting a positive mention in dispatches is not on.

I notice Puja hasn't mentioned his backing of Fotuali'I for the Schuster Award......

[Which Tyler]

I think quoting the incorrect surprises of the year is a tad harsh - they were supposed to be surprises after all...
Ahem
(Wilson's and Kvesic... GRRRRR)


Can we count Jack Walker as signing of the season for 2017-18?

[Puja]

I notice Puja hasn't mentioned his backing of Fotuali'I for the Schuster Award......

Fake news.

Puja

[Digby]

I notice Puja hasn't mentioned his backing of Fotuali'I for the Schuster Award......

Fake news.

Puja

Or despite the huge amount of evidence seen with your own eyes you hadn't accounted for just how little Mallinder was/is getting from too many very good players. Wouldn't catch me falling for that trap and saying for instance Saints would finish in the play-offs

[Scrumhead]

Looking back my vote for best educated guesser is scrumhead. I'm not sure who this swindonbri chap is but rocking up once a year and getting a positive mention in dispatches is not on.

I notice Puja hasn't mentioned his backing of Fotuali'I for the Schuster Award......

Thanks Mellsblue.

My league predictions were a little off though - particularly with Newcastle and Bath.

Didn't get Gopperth either and the less said about Charnley the better ... I think he may get better, but he definitely wasn't the surprise hit I expected him to be.

[Mellsblue]

Looking back my vote for best educated guesser is scrumhead. I'm not sure who this swindonbri chap is but rocking up once a year and getting a positive mention in dispatches is not on.

I notice Puja hasn't mentioned his backing of Fotuali'I for the Schuster Award......

Thanks Mellsblue.

My league predictions were a little off though - particularly with Newcastle and Bath.

Didn't get Gopperth either and the less said about Charnley the better ... I think he may get better, but he definitely wasn't the surprise hit I expected him to be.

In the land of the blind......

[TheNomad]

It says something that, relative to my usual predictions, this was a pretty good set of guesses by me

Nick de Luca aside obviously - he was tearing it up all year

[Raggs]

How do you define least effective signing?

This will be Wasps relevant since I've followed them, but could easily apply to others. De Luca was planning on retiring, and came from a mid table pro-d2 team, I doubt he was on anything close to big money, and lead the academy boys out a few times acting as a senior head there.

Much like anyone expecting anything more than some AW appearances out of Armitage. He was a championship player (albeit with a name). He was always going to be in the background for Wasps for that first season, and again, probably not on a big packet. Next season is where if he's been an effective signing, you'd expect to see him.

Personally I'd have thought Toomua was least effective. Got to be on a big money deal (gave up playing for Aus), and played how many games (along with a card).?

[Scrumhead]

Personally I think anyone with a long-term injury should be exempt from consideration for the Jerome Schuster award. I don't think anyone would have been picking Toomua had he not been injured for almost the entire season.

My overriding impression from looking back across the predictions people made is that the Premiership isn't predictable which surely has to be a good thing?

Exeter winning is great for English rugby IMO and I think the league will be even more competitive next season. I expect Sale and Gloucester to have better seasons and I'd back Newcastle to maintain their improvement under Richards, so I think it will be even harder to predict the final table/play-offs.

[Digby]

How do you define least effective signing?

For me it'd be some combination of money spent, talent, and expectation as to what they should be delivering. Which for this season would leave me with 3 props to choose from, Marty Moore, Pat Cilliers, and for me the man who take home the prize Greg Holmes. At least I can't believe they went after Holmes in the expectation they'd be paying him much more and playing him much less than Williams, and tbh Holmes looks third choice behind Francis too though in advance maybe Vs Francis it was expected to be closer