Brexit delayed

[Digby]

to cheer us all up

I don't want cheering up. I'd rather it failed in spectacular style and those who once advocated for Brexit were burnt at the stake.

[Banquo]

to cheer us all up

I don't want cheering up. I'd rather it failed in spectacular style and those who once advocated for Brexit were burnt at the stake.

indeed....especially those I know who should have known better. Amongst the many fall outs of the highly divisive and abusive campaign has been the seeming acceptance that tolerance, common sense, telling the truth, and being calm and measured about anything are all.....off the table.

[Stones of granite]

to cheer us all up

I don't want cheering up. I'd rather it failed in spectacular style and those who once advocated for Brexit were burnt at the stake.

What preparations are being made for it? At the latest, it will come into effect in about 20 months time, and unless we are going for some transitional period, we are going to need, at the very least:
1. An enhanced immigration service to administer whatever new system (points based?) that is to be implemented
2. Enhancements to Border Force to police the above system, including at the least exit controls in addition KTL the current entry controls.
3. A greatly enlarged HMRC to deal with whatever customs and tariffs regime we end up with
4. A proper fisheries protection fleet to police our newly sovereign maritime Economic Zone.
5. A new Civil Service department to monitor and track changes to European Law, so that these changes can be introduced as amendments to the Repeal Act.

All of these things are going to take time for establishment and recruitment, and in the case of the fisheries protection, tender, design, build and commissioning of vessels, and there ain't much time left. On top of that, I feel that this list only scratches the surface - I'm sure there's plenty I've missed, and yet there is no sign the Government is doing any of it.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Weird for someone who campaigned for remain, but it would appear that only Theresa was against guaranteeing the rights of Eu citizens already in the UK after the brexit vote.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.indepe ... html%3Famp

Does she have any opinions of her own, or just agree with whatever the polls are telling her is most popular on any given day?

She's a pragmatist. It makes no negotiating sense to guarantee rights unilaterally or to make a broad statement of a guarantee without any idea what the limits should be. She's playing the stupid hand she's been given with as much logic as she can muster. It would of course be better to not play it at all but there we go.

Exactly. Explaining every move, counter move and objective to the entire population would be self-defeating. Perhaps time a few people realised that and worked out how best to support the efforts at Brexit rather than just chuck rocks from the sidelines.

Like it or not, its happening and if this current climate continues then the likelihood is that we will end up in a far worse place than we might otherwise be.

i'm going to call bullshit on this. We'll end up in a rubbish place because we have no hand to play. The fate of our ex pats is politically sensitive but not very important in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand the fate of the EU citizens in the country is massively important to us economically but only politically interesting to the EU. They can use it as a proxy to see just how shite we are at negotiation and the answer is very.

I refuse to accept that this is happening and see no reason why I or anyone else shouldn't throw as many fucking rocks as they can to bring the whole aedifice of Brexit down.

[Banquo]

She's a pragmatist. It makes no negotiating sense to guarantee rights unilaterally or to make a broad statement of a guarantee without any idea what the limits should be. She's playing the stupid hand she's been given with as much logic as she can muster. It would of course be better to not play it at all but there we go.

Exactly. Explaining every move, counter move and objective to the entire population would be self-defeating. Perhaps time a few people realised that and worked out how best to support the efforts at Brexit rather than just chuck rocks from the sidelines.

Like it or not, its happening and if this current climate continues then the likelihood is that we will end up in a far worse place than we might otherwise be.

i'm going to call bullshit on this. We'll end up in a rubbish place because we have no hand to play. The fate of our ex pats is politically sensitive but not very important in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand the fate of the EU citizens in the country is massively important to us economically but only politically interesting to the EU. They can use it as a proxy to see just how shite we are at negotiation and the answer is very.

I refuse to accept that this is happening and see no reason why I or anyone else shouldn't throw as many fucking rocks as they can to bring the whole aedifice of Brexit down.

Best bet is to bring May's govt down....but then there would be another election, unless Corbers does a deal with devils. We'd have to call a halt to Brexit.....

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Exactly. Explaining every move, counter move and objective to the entire population would be self-defeating. Perhaps time a few people realised that and worked out how best to support the efforts at Brexit rather than just chuck rocks from the sidelines.

Like it or not, its happening and if this current climate continues then the likelihood is that we will end up in a far worse place than we might otherwise be.

i'm going to call bullshit on this. We'll end up in a rubbish place because we have no hand to play. The fate of our ex pats is politically sensitive but not very important in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand the fate of the EU citizens in the country is massively important to us economically but only politically interesting to the EU. They can use it as a proxy to see just how shite we are at negotiation and the answer is very.

I refuse to accept that this is happening and see no reason why I or anyone else shouldn't throw as many fucking rocks as they can to bring the whole aedifice of Brexit down.

Best bet is to bring May's govt down....but then there would be another election, unless Corbers does a deal with devils. We'd have to call a halt to Brexit.....

Corbyn appears sufficiently delusional to try to run a minority administration. The Lib Dems have sworn they won't join a coalition and the price of even confidence and supply is to have a 2nd referendum which Corbyn won't want. The Nats won't support Corbyn without a commitment on Indyref 2 and I think Corbyn is likely to be talked out of that offer. There won't be another election until the Tories get a new leader in place at the earliest and the likelihood is that that would see another swing in the polls that would mean Labour suddenly reluctant to agree the early election.

At the moment my best bet looks like continued chaos with a strong Lib Dem voice saying "We can avoid the clusterfuck that is Brexit if we just stay. Let's ask the people again". I'd expect them to move an appropriate amendment - or even for there to be an appropriate Private Members Bill. i think there would be considerble support from labour and a fair amount from conservatives.

[Digby]

I have no confidence whatsoever that even with problems starting to come out of Brexit that if the people of the country are asked are you seriously thick as shit racists they will not simply say damn right we are.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

I have no confidence whatsoever that even with problems starting to come out of Brexit that if the people of the country are asked are you seriously thick as shit racists they will not simply say damn right we are.

The demographics suggested that by 2020 remain would win without a single person changing their mind or a change in turn out.

[Banquo]

i'm going to call bullshit on this. We'll end up in a rubbish place because we have no hand to play. The fate of our ex pats is politically sensitive but not very important in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand the fate of the EU citizens in the country is massively important to us economically but only politically interesting to the EU. They can use it as a proxy to see just how shite we are at negotiation and the answer is very.

I refuse to accept that this is happening and see no reason why I or anyone else shouldn't throw as many fucking rocks as they can to bring the whole aedifice of Brexit down.

Best bet is to bring May's govt down....but then there would be another election, unless Corbers does a deal with devils. We'd have to call a halt to Brexit.....

Corbyn appears sufficiently delusional to try to run a minority administration. The Lib Dems have sworn they won't join a coalition and the price of even confidence and supply is to have a 2nd referendum which Corbyn won't want. The Nats won't support Corbyn without a commitment on Indyref 2 and I think Corbyn is likely to be talked out of that offer. There won't be another election until the Tories get a new leader in place at the earliest and the likelihood is that that would see another swing in the polls that would mean Labour suddenly reluctant to agree the early election.

At the moment my best bet looks like continued chaos with a strong Lib Dem voice saying "We can avoid the clusterfuck that is Brexit if we just stay. Let's ask the people again". I'd expect them to move an appropriate amendment - or even for there to be an appropriate Private Members Bill. i think there would be considerble support from labour and a fair amount from conservatives.

strong libdem voice is the flaw in that plan.

voting against Brexit is a tricky one for MP's in leave seats....career v principle/country.

wot a mess, compounded by Corbers wanting out of Europe in his heart and head.

[Sandydragon]

She's a pragmatist. It makes no negotiating sense to guarantee rights unilaterally or to make a broad statement of a guarantee without any idea what the limits should be. She's playing the stupid hand she's been given with as much logic as she can muster. It would of course be better to not play it at all but there we go.

Exactly. Explaining every move, counter move and objective to the entire population would be self-defeating. Perhaps time a few people realised that and worked out how best to support the efforts at Brexit rather than just chuck rocks from the sidelines.

Like it or not, its happening and if this current climate continues then the likelihood is that we will end up in a far worse place than we might otherwise be.

i'm going to call bullshit on this. We'll end up in a rubbish place because we have no hand to play. The fate of our ex pats is politically sensitive but not very important in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand the fate of the EU citizens in the country is massively important to us economically but only politically interesting to the EU. They can use it as a proxy to see just how shite we are at negotiation and the answer is very.

I refuse to accept that this is happening and see no reason why I or anyone else shouldn't throw as many fucking rocks as they can to bring the whole aedifice of Brexit down.

I'm going g to call wakey wakey on this. Unless there is another referendum, it's happening. Dry your eyes and look for the best possible solution.

As a remainder, I'd rather try to work towards as soft an exit as possible rather that chuck my toys out of the prom.

[Sandydragon]

Best bet is to bring May's govt down....but then there would be another election, unless Corbers does a deal with devils. We'd have to call a halt to Brexit.....

Corbyn appears sufficiently delusional to try to run a minority administration. The Lib Dems have sworn they won't join a coalition and the price of even confidence and supply is to have a 2nd referendum which Corbyn won't want. The Nats won't support Corbyn without a commitment on Indyref 2 and I think Corbyn is likely to be talked out of that offer. There won't be another election until the Tories get a new leader in place at the earliest and the likelihood is that that would see another swing in the polls that would mean Labour suddenly reluctant to agree the early election.

At the moment my best bet looks like continued chaos with a strong Lib Dem voice saying "We can avoid the clusterfuck that is Brexit if we just stay. Let's ask the people again". I'd expect them to move an appropriate amendment - or even for there to be an appropriate Private Members Bill. i think there would be considerble support from labour and a fair amount from conservatives.

strong libdem voice is the flaw in that plan.

voting against Brexit is a tricky one for MP's in leave seats....career v principle/country.

wot a mess, compounded by Corbers wanting out of Europe in his heart and head.

Masterpiece campaigning by him though. Just have such a woolly response to anynbrexit questions and wheel our Keir Starmer to sound sensible once in a while and you get left alone as the Tories paint themselves a shard Brexit and labour appeal to the rest of humanity.

[Banquo]

Corbyn appears sufficiently delusional to try to run a minority administration. The Lib Dems have sworn they won't join a coalition and the price of even confidence and supply is to have a 2nd referendum which Corbyn won't want. The Nats won't support Corbyn without a commitment on Indyref 2 and I think Corbyn is likely to be talked out of that offer. There won't be another election until the Tories get a new leader in place at the earliest and the likelihood is that that would see another swing in the polls that would mean Labour suddenly reluctant to agree the early election.

At the moment my best bet looks like continued chaos with a strong Lib Dem voice saying "We can avoid the clusterfuck that is Brexit if we just stay. Let's ask the people again". I'd expect them to move an appropriate amendment - or even for there to be an appropriate Private Members Bill. i think there would be considerble support from labour and a fair amount from conservatives.

strong libdem voice is the flaw in that plan.

voting against Brexit is a tricky one for MP's in leave seats....career v principle/country.

wot a mess, compounded by Corbers wanting out of Europe in his heart and head.

Masterpiece campaigning by him though. Just have such a woolly response to anynbrexit questions and wheel our Keir Starmer to sound sensible once in a while and you get left alone as the Tories paint themselves a shard Brexit and labour appeal to the rest of humanity.

total genius, best result possible. Labour literally need to nothing but carp, criticise and speak at Glastonbury.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Exactly. Explaining every move, counter move and objective to the entire population would be self-defeating. Perhaps time a few people realised that and worked out how best to support the efforts at Brexit rather than just chuck rocks from the sidelines.

Like it or not, its happening and if this current climate continues then the likelihood is that we will end up in a far worse place than we might otherwise be.

i'm going to call bullshit on this. We'll end up in a rubbish place because we have no hand to play. The fate of our ex pats is politically sensitive but not very important in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand the fate of the EU citizens in the country is massively important to us economically but only politically interesting to the EU. They can use it as a proxy to see just how shite we are at negotiation and the answer is very.

I refuse to accept that this is happening and see no reason why I or anyone else shouldn't throw as many fucking rocks as they can to bring the whole aedifice of Brexit down.

I'm going g to call wakey wakey on this. Unless there is another referendum, it's happening. Dry your eyes and look for the best possible solution.

As a remainder, I'd rather try to work towards as soft an exit as possible rather that chuck my toys out of the prom.

The Conservatives don't have a majority in parliament, and barely a majority amongst MPs for Brexit. No other party has anywhere near a majority in favour of Brexit and most are officially set against every single part of the Brexit that the Conservatives are negotiating for. Further the Brexit vote was won by less and the reality of our weak negotiating position is set to reveal itself. Yet despite all that's happened politically in the past couple of years, you think it's definitely happening? Catch a grip.

[Banquo]

i'm going to call bullshit on this. We'll end up in a rubbish place because we have no hand to play. The fate of our ex pats is politically sensitive but not very important in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand the fate of the EU citizens in the country is massively important to us economically but only politically interesting to the EU. They can use it as a proxy to see just how shite we are at negotiation and the answer is very.

I refuse to accept that this is happening and see no reason why I or anyone else shouldn't throw as many fucking rocks as they can to bring the whole aedifice of Brexit down.

I'm going g to call wakey wakey on this. Unless there is another referendum, it's happening. Dry your eyes and look for the best possible solution.

As a remainder, I'd rather try to work towards as soft an exit as possible rather that chuck my toys out of the prom.

The Conservatives don't have a majority in parliament, and barely a majority amongst MPs for Brexit. No other party has anywhere near a majority in favour of Brexit and most are officially set against every single part of the Brexit that the Conservatives are negotiating for. Further the Brexit vote was won by less and the reality of our weak negotiating position is set to reveal itself. Yet despite all that's happened politically in the past couple of years, you think it's definitely happening? Catch a grip.

as a counter, 82% of vote was for parties with Brexit in manifesto; logistics is the best hope for stopping it, alongside MP's rebelling against the whip, and in some cases facing deselection/loss of seat. You hope that logic will win; that would be a volte face from 2016, and subsequent events. Hope you are right........

[Eugene Wrayburn]

I'm going g to call wakey wakey on this. Unless there is another referendum, it's happening. Dry your eyes and look for the best possible solution.

As a remainder, I'd rather try to work towards as soft an exit as possible rather that chuck my toys out of the prom.

The Conservatives don't have a majority in parliament, and barely a majority amongst MPs for Brexit. No other party has anywhere near a majority in favour of Brexit and most are officially set against every single part of the Brexit that the Conservatives are negotiating for. Further the Brexit vote was won by less and the reality of our weak negotiating position is set to reveal itself. Yet despite all that's happened politically in the past couple of years, you think it's definitely happening? Catch a grip.

as a counter, 82% of vote was for parties with Brexit in manifesto; logistics is the best hope for stopping it, alongside MP's rebelling against the whip, and in some cases facing deselection/loss of seat. You hope that logic will win; that would be a volte face from 2016, and subsequent events. Hope you are right........

I don't think logic will win. I just think no one is actually going to want to be responsible for the horrorshow that will be any "deal" that we get and politics can then take over. Corbyn and all the others in the end will find it politically expedient to vote down any deal which is even vaguely sub-optimal which means any deal whatsoever that takes us out. They can say that they aren't opposing Brexit - just the government's negoiation results. i cannot see any way how this minority government gets a good enough deal to clear the commons. That's not to say that Brexit isn't still the most likely result, but there are plenty of reasons to think it won't happen.

[Banquo]

The Conservatives don't have a majority in parliament, and barely a majority amongst MPs for Brexit. No other party has anywhere near a majority in favour of Brexit and most are officially set against every single part of the Brexit that the Conservatives are negotiating for. Further the Brexit vote was won by less and the reality of our weak negotiating position is set to reveal itself. Yet despite all that's happened politically in the past couple of years, you think it's definitely happening? Catch a grip.

as a counter, 82% of vote was for parties with Brexit in manifesto; logistics is the best hope for stopping it, alongside MP's rebelling against the whip, and in some cases facing deselection/loss of seat. You hope that logic will win; that would be a volte face from 2016, and subsequent events. Hope you are right........

I don't think logic will win. I just think no one is actually going to want to be responsible for the horrorshow that will be any "deal" that we get and politics can then take over. Corbyn and all the others in the end will find it politically expedient to vote down any deal which is even vaguely sub-optimal which means any deal whatsoever that takes us out. They can say that they aren't opposing Brexit - just the government's negoiation results. i cannot see any way how this minority government gets a good enough deal to clear the commons. That's not to say that Brexit isn't still the most likely result, but there are plenty of reasons to think it won't happen.

.....but if no deal, what happens after 2 years?

[Which Tyler]

as a counter, 82% of vote was for parties with Brexit in manifesto; logistics is the best hope for stopping it, alongside MP's rebelling against the whip, and in some cases facing deselection/loss of seat. You hope that logic will win; that would be a volte face from 2016, and subsequent events. Hope you are right........

I don't think logic will win. I just think no one is actually going to want to be responsible for the horrorshow that will be any "deal" that we get and politics can then take over. Corbyn and all the others in the end will find it politically expedient to vote down any deal which is even vaguely sub-optimal which means any deal whatsoever that takes us out. They can say that they aren't opposing Brexit - just the government's negoiation results. i cannot see any way how this minority government gets a good enough deal to clear the commons. That's not to say that Brexit isn't still the most likely result, but there are plenty of reasons to think it won't happen.

.....but if no deal, what happens after 2 years?

2nd referendum becomes viable - leave with nothing, or return to the fold

[Banquo]

I don't think logic will win. I just think no one is actually going to want to be responsible for the horrorshow that will be any "deal" that we get and politics can then take over. Corbyn and all the others in the end will find it politically expedient to vote down any deal which is even vaguely sub-optimal which means any deal whatsoever that takes us out. They can say that they aren't opposing Brexit - just the government's negoiation results. i cannot see any way how this minority government gets a good enough deal to clear the commons. That's not to say that Brexit isn't still the most likely result, but there are plenty of reasons to think it won't happen.

2nd referendum becomes viable - leave with nothing, or return to the fold

.....but if no deal, what happens after 2 years?

is that so? I genuinely don't know...is that a legal thang? and can you reverse a50?

[Which Tyler]

2nd referendum becomes viable - leave with nothing, or return to the fold

.....but if no deal, what happens after 2 years?

is that so? I genuinely don't know...is that a legal thang? and can you reverse a50?

The impression I get is that nobody knows, but that the likes of Inker, Tusk, Macron and the guy who wrote the requirements for Art 50 all seem to think so. Theresa May disagrees

[Banquo]

is that so? I genuinely don't know...is that a legal thang? and can you reverse a50?

The impression I get is that nobody knows, but that the likes of Inker, Tusk, Macron and the guy who wrote the requirements for Art 50 all seem to think so. Theresa May disagrees

ok. So wishful thinking (fingers crossed you are right, because there is no chance of a deal that would look anything like sensible for us by March 2019)

[Which Tyler]

is that so? I genuinely don't know...is that a legal thang? and can you reverse a50?

The impression I get is that nobody knows, but that the likes of Inker, Tusk, Macron and the guy who wrote the requirements for Art 50 all seem to think so. Theresa May disagrees

ok. So wishful thinking (fingers crossed you are right, because there is no chance of a deal that would look anything like sensible for us by March 2019)

Certainly a degree of wishful thinking, but I do think it's a viable option if we fail to negotiate anything that passes parliament. Given no agreement, a minority government, the narrowness of the referendum result, and the potential willingness of the EU to abort Brexit; I'd say that the option of a do over becomes a viable option. Not that it will necessarily happen, but I'd place money on it being raised in parliament if we fail to reach an agreement.

[Banquo]

The impression I get is that nobody knows, but that the likes of Inker, Tusk, Macron and the guy who wrote the requirements for Art 50 all seem to think so. Theresa May disagrees

ok. So wishful thinking (fingers crossed you are right, because there is no chance of a deal that would look anything like sensible for us by March 2019)

Certainly a degree of wishful thinking, but I do think it's a viable option if we fail to negotiate anything that passes parliament. Given no agreement, a minority government, the narrowness of the referendum result, and the potential willingness of the EU to abort Brexit; I'd say that the option of a do over becomes a viable option. Not that it will necessarily happen, but I'd place money on it being raised in parliament if we fail to reach an agreement.

yep lots of mileage, I was just establishing what the article 50 options were, and its not black and white from what I've heard so far.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

ok. So wishful thinking (fingers crossed you are right, because there is no chance of a deal that would look anything like sensible for us by March 2019)

Certainly a degree of wishful thinking, but I do think it's a viable option if we fail to negotiate anything that passes parliament. Given no agreement, a minority government, the narrowness of the referendum result, and the potential willingness of the EU to abort Brexit; I'd say that the option of a do over becomes a viable option. Not that it will necessarily happen, but I'd place money on it being raised in parliament if we fail to reach an agreement.

yep lots of mileage, I was just establishing what the article 50 options were, and its not black and white from what I've heard so far.

No not just wishful thinking. Everyone who matters including Macron has said that we can abandon brexit. We'll be in a weaker position in the EU but at least we'd still be in the game.

[Banquo]

Certainly a degree of wishful thinking, but I do think it's a viable option if we fail to negotiate anything that passes parliament. Given no agreement, a minority government, the narrowness of the referendum result, and the potential willingness of the EU to abort Brexit; I'd say that the option of a do over becomes a viable option. Not that it will necessarily happen, but I'd place money on it being raised in parliament if we fail to reach an agreement.

yep lots of mileage, I was just establishing what the article 50 options were, and its not black and white from what I've heard so far.

No not just wishful thinking. Everyone who matters including Macron has said that we can abandon brexit. We'll be in a weaker position in the EU but at least we'd still be in the game.

have Juncker and Trusk? But ok. There is a difference between saying/implying and happening too; I don't trust those fckrs

[Eugene Wrayburn]

yep lots of mileage, I was just establishing what the article 50 options were, and its not black and white from what I've heard so far.

No not just wishful thinking. Everyone who matters including Macron has said that we can abandon brexit. We'll be in a weaker position in the EU but at least we'd still be in the game.

have Juncker and Trusk? But ok. There is a difference between saying/implying and happening too; I don't trust those fckrs

I'm pretty sure both have. And no I don't trust thm but forcing us into a humiliating climb down whilst keeping us in the fold is the best for all concerned. They'll probably try to strip away at least of our opt outs as well.