Why Boks will Win 2019 WC

[rowan]

To be honest, it would be great for the sport if they did. We'd have that old SA v NZ rivalry back at its peak, with 3 titles each and the All Blacks knocked off their perch for a while at least:

There will be no shortage of disagreement with this post, so let me enter with the following disclaimer: I am not suggesting they will beat the All Blacks, Wallabies or England during any regular seasonal tours for the next three years. I am saying that they will be in form to win the Rugby World Cup, in 2019. If they lose every game for the next two years, but maintain the current development trajectory, they will win it.



Below is why.





1. They have unnoticed depth, which will come into form at the right time.



It's almost too easy to point at the best players in Australia, England, and New Zealand. The recent drawn Lions series has informed the Southern Hemisphere audience of the talent apparent in Ireland too. There is no challenge is stating where the key members of each squad are in preparation for the Rugby World Cup. Usually one or two players emerge in that time - like Beauden Barrett or Israel Folau in 2013. But the meat of each side is generally realised well in advance.



With the springboks, this is less so. It could be for a variety of reasons - Super Rugby broadcasting times for South African based games; a lack of willingness to watch anyone other than our domestic teams. But the current crop of Springboks is building in both depth and form under the radar of much international commentary. Everyone know's who Eben Etzebeth is, but players like Combrinck, Marx, and Mohoje barely hit the radar.



Perhaps I'm not drinking at the right pub, or maybe it's the fact that a Lions series just toured, but I hear very little discussion about the form of the playing group in South Africa. To be honest, I normally couldn't care - I tend to focus too much on the Wallabies/All Blacks rivalry. A hang up of being a Wallabies fan, perhaps. But there is good reason to pay attention to South Africa. They are building a World Cup squad with serious potential in every key position.



There are four world class playmakers occupying spots in the South African Super Rugby franchises. And by World Class, I mean capable of leading the Springboks all the way to the Final in 2019. The old Stalwart is the still young Handre Pollard; the steady hand of their 2015 campaign, which only narrowly went down to New Zealand in the semi final 18-20. He's occupied a sleepy Bulls outfit for the past two seasons, but there is every bit of experience and talent in Pollard to spell danger again.



Elton Jantjies is the current selected Fly-half of a dominant Lions outfit. He is a running fly-half, who has proven useful in scoring tries as much as setting them up. Jantjies works within a forward dominant style of play, and he likes feeding attack from depth. Pat Lambie is currently injured, but started the season leading the sharks to a narrow loss against the Red's at Suncorp before building to beat the Brumbies in Canberra, and dismantling a host of sides back in Durban. Lambie is a brilliant kick, with two World Cup campaigns worth of experience behind him. Curwin Bosch, in my opinion, is the future of Springbok play making. He made his Super Rugby debut against the Waratahs, and had a damaging impact on the Australian franchise. He's fast, and deadly with the boot. Bosch needs to be blooded by the Springboks before he's given the responsibility of a World Cup, but he will be essential to their 2019 preparation. If you haven't watched this kid play rugby, you're missing out.



The Springboks are loaded with hungry outside backs. Jesse Kriel, Johan Janse van Rensburg, Ruan Combrinck, Raymond Rhule, Courtnall Skosane and Jan Serfontein all have a point to prove. The forward back is also heaving with young hungry talent including Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert, Lood de Jager and Oupa Mohoje, Jaco Kriel, Ruan Dreyer and Warren Whiteley. Watching the Lions pull apart the Brumbies forwards in Canberra this year was a demonstration in forcing turnovers, and controlling possession.



2. Their competition is peaking, two years too early.



The current competition is England and the All Blacks. Both teams are going to have great squads for the World Cup. Each has brilliantly structured play, which over the past two seasons has resulted in sustained victories. They have a great product, and employ a terrific method. However I also see two teams juggling for the top of a mountain with very distinct styles of play. They have been refining strategies, and will continue to spend the next two years perfecting every minor detail to maintain form.



The Springboks are not in the same league right now, and they don't need to be. What matters for them is the unification of the player group to refine an optimum combination in Japan. Watching their Super Rugby teams you might not see the flashy combinations in the New Zealand franchises, but you will see players attacking from depth in the Sharks, Bulls, Lions, and Stormers. Feeding ball to players moving at speed sounds rather pedestrian - but watch the Australian franchises play. You would think there is a tactic in standing still. Flat footed ball has never won a game, and it never will.



The All Blacks run at pace, and they support - so what's the secret for the Springboks? Simple. No one has been challenging the All Blacks until the Lions series this year (let's put last years Ireland loss in Chicago down to an off-day). While the Lions did well to push for the drawn series, they were not the All Blacks greatest challenge. There were times during that series where it felt like New Zealand were their own worst enemies. The Lions series confirmed that the All Blacks are beatable; not that the Lions were a good team. There is a clear different.



The Springboks player-group is showing signs of consistently improvement (post 2015 World Cup). This only matters because they are developing greater consistency in their game. The Springboks are a great rugby team, but they have played a lot like Australia between World Cups over the past two decades: ambling throughout a few seasons before igniting for the occasion. The All Blacks have been significantly more consistent. With the Springboks showing signs of developing their player-group in long-term "team" oriented skill sets, they mark danger approaching 2019.



If evidence is needed - look at Springbok World Cup performances. Australia played the game of their lives to beat them in 1999, New Zealand put together some Wizardry to knock them out in 2003. They controlled England and the competition in 2007 (reminding me of the Wallabies win in 99). They went down by less than a try to the Wallabies in 2011, and were defeated by an even slimmer margins to All Blacks in 2015. This is a team which can shit the bed three years prior, and then arrive with a genuine shot for the Cup. I'm seeing the Springboks currently play a brand of Rugby they normally wouldn't start putting together until a year from now.



3. The Pool Structure



2019 Pool B makes the 2015 "Pool of Death" look like child's play. Italy wont survive, neither will whomever occupies "Africa 1" or "Repechage Winner". It's about New Zealand/South Africa. Because the key is this: the Springboks don't have to win that game, New Zealand do.



We can't predict who will win or be runner up in every group - but there are strong indications of the contenders. Despite the absence of an official draw as the pools remain to be finished, the quarter final structure has been the same at every World Cup:

Winner of B always faces the Runner up of A
Winner of C always faces the Runner up of D
These teams then always face each other in Semi Final 1
Winner of D always faces the Runner up of C

Winner of A always faces the Runner up of B
These teams then always face each other in Semi Final 2



So if the All Blacks win their Pool, they will likely face Scotland in the quarter, and England in the Semi. If they lose, it will be Ireland in the quarter final, and either Australia or Argentina in the Semi. The pool structure always ensures that some teams have a harder fight on their hands than others. New Zealand has always had a fairly straight forward pool, owing to their long held number one ranking and the absence of leading nations to fall below the top 5.



Having South Africa alongside in the pool is a challenge New Zealand has never faced. As mentioned above, at every World Cup the Springboks turn up for the big games. If they are defeated, it's by very little. During the pool game one of two things will happen. If South Africa wins, it will damage the mindset of the All Blacks, and they will face an uphill battle against their knock-out stage opponents whom will all smell blood, and have a renewed belief in their ability to become giant killers.



If the Springboks lose, it won't be by much. This will generate pressure for the All Blacks before they have traditionally experienced it. This will give England further strategic confidence toward the Semi Final. The Springboks will then re-group, patch the gaps, and then make their way through the to the Semi-Final against Australia/Argentina.



I see opportunity here for South Africa. I also see nothing but pressure for New Zealand.



4. The way South African players are moving and improving.



Rugby Union in many ways shares a philosophy commonplace in professional sports. Rugby is at heart a simple game made complicated by experts. We can all get lost in elaborate set piece plays, and tricky passing - but what wins games is ensuring success in best practices. I mentioned above that the current South African player group is showing strength toward best practices. Remember, the key is their rapid rate of improvement across all areas. Here is what I'm talking about:



Possession
You can't win the game if you don't have the ball. Possession is everything in Rugby. The Lions understand this better than most. When they have the ball, they are protecting it. When defending, they are trying to force turnovers - both in the ruck and through isolating attacking players into forced mauls.



Attack from depth
The Lions and Sharks run hard from depth. Flat footed attack will never break the England, or All Black line. The forwards are young, strong, and very fit. Over the next two years they will refine the combinations and determine the strongest pack to deliver on the strategy. The player group thinking of themselves as fast-paced battering rams may sound simplistic, but the collective focus on the "simple" is what inevitably works.



Support
South African players are getting better at supporting in both attack, and defence. They are protecting breakdowns well, feeding off into support, and disrupting play through a clever use of forced mauls. They are becoming better and better at isolating the opposition for one reasons - they all known they always need to support. It is not a finished product yet, but it will be.



Winning the World Cup is not about having the best record leading up to the World Cup. There is more than enough evidence to support this.



https://www.rugbytimes.co/single-post/2 ... -World-Cup

[zer0]

[rowan]

Indeed! If you want to see a definition of optimism just read the South African previews on the upcoming Lions v Canes Super Semi. One headline reads "Lion Will Definitely Win!" then quotes a bunch of former Boks on why !! http://www.sarugbymag.co.za/blog/detail ... nitely-win

[rowan]

Indeed! If you want to see a definition of optimism just read the South African previews on the upcoming Lions v Canes Super Semi. One headline reads "Lion Will Definitely Win!" then quotes a bunch of former Boks on why !! http://www.sarugbymag.co.za/blog/detail ... nitely-win

& they were right!

[rowan]

Southern Kings coach

Cape Town - Deon Davids is a front-runner to be named as the next Springbok coach, replacing the under fire Allister Coetzee at the end of the year.

Sport24 understands that Davids, the current coach of the Southern Kings, is rated highly by new Springbok Director of Rugby Rassie Erasmus and is very much on the radar to help resuscitate the Boks.

Speculation is that Coetzee, after a second uninspiring year at the helm of the national side, is out of time and that he will be axed after SA Rugby's December 13 General Council Meeting.

Story continues here: http://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Springbo ... h-20171130

[paddy no 11]

would need to add a pair of halfbacks and a little bit of deft out the back like

[rowan]

Some unions just never figure out that no matter how many times you change the coach there's no significant improvement over the long term, and that is because the problems are systemic and relate to the management of the unions themselves.

[rowan]

The AIs are becoming a joke where Aussie and Saffa are concerned. It's obvious they're only showing up to get paid...

[Sandydragon]

If I could be arsed, I’d post a picture of Everest, because on the basis of this AI series that is the challenge South Africa face. Even some of the players look like they don’t give a toss.

Changing the coach might render some kind of dead cat bounce, but the selection policy and politics of the SA union make that job almost impossible.

[rowan]

I would agree, but we seem to hear the same thing after the AIs almost every year, yet when it comes to the RWC the Boks invariably get it together while the Home Unions crumble. If they change the coach it won't be because of the AIs. It will be because of the Rugby Championship, since that was all that mattered to the Southern Hemisphere giants this year.

[Sandydragon]

I would agree, but we seem to hear the same thing after the AIs almost every year, yet when it comes to the RWC the Boks invariably get it together while the Home Unions crumble. If they change the coach it won't be because of the AIs. It will be because of the Rugby Championship, since that was all that mattered to the Southern Hemisphere giants this year.

We’ll see, I think Coetsees days are numbered. But I don’t think anyone else will do better given the constraints he has had to work under.

It as stated below, it’s not just a case of a new coach and a couple of player changes, the major problem is the selection policy.

[cashead]

What would be disappointing is the fact that the Springboks had shown improvement on last year, and this kind of kneejerk reaction will invariably just end up causing more long term damage.

[rowan]

That's one thing we can agree on then. Changing coaches when your team has generally sucked over numerous coaching tenures is like changing your underwear in an attempt to deal with hemorrhoids...

[Puja]

What would be disappointing is the fact that the Springboks had shown improvement on last year, and this kind of kneejerk reaction will invariably just end up causing more long term damage.

Have they really though? They won their summer series 3-0 and I think that got a lot of people thinking that they'd turned the corner, but it was a very poor France side. Their only subsequent wins have been against Argentina and Italy which is hardly impressive.

Not that I particularly think that a change of coach will change much, but I don't think there's been as many peaks and troughs as it seems.

Puja

[rowan]

One aberration against the All Blacks notwithstanding, they had a decent enough Rugby Championship campaign. But they will be starting 2018 with their lowest ranking of the decade at the time of year.

[Sandydragon]

What would be disappointing is the fact that the Springboks had shown improvement on last year, and this kind of kneejerk reaction will invariably just end up causing more long term damage.

Have they really though? They won their summer series 3-0 and I think that got a lot of people thinking that they'd turned the corner, but it was a very poor France side. Their only subsequent wins have been against Argentina and Italy which is hardly impressive.

Not that I particularly think that a change of coach will change much, but I don't think there's been as many peaks and troughs as it seems.

Puja

Bokke vs France is 2 very limited teams trying to brute force each other. Sad to see considering how much both have brought to the game and both have issues that could be resolved with some common sense, it’s not like either are short of a player base.

[Digby]

What would be disappointing is the fact that the Springboks had shown improvement on last year, and this kind of kneejerk reaction will invariably just end up causing more long term damage.

Have they really though? They won their summer series 3-0 and I think that got a lot of people thinking that they'd turned the corner, but it was a very poor France side. Their only subsequent wins have been against Argentina and Italy which is hardly impressive.

Not that I particularly think that a change of coach will change much, but I don't think there's been as many peaks and troughs as it seems.

Puja

Like the Argies picking more of their European based players would help

[cashead]

So gains made by the Springboks this season:

1. Better W/L record than last year, with 7 wins compared to just 4, and they halved their losses from last year, with 4 instead of 8.

2. Forward pack - The Springbok forward pack itself should have regained some measure of respect, with a much stronger showing compared to last year in this department and they generally got the better of most of their opponents, bar a few notable exceptions (Ireland and New Zealand). Their scrum, with Coenie Oosthuizen or Wilco Louw at 3 is a real menace, and Malcolm Marx was easily one of the best hookers playing in test rugby this year. Combined with Stephen Kitsoff at 1, it's the making of a genuine, world class front-row, which the Boks haven't really had in a while.

3. Captaincy - They have managed to unearth a viable core for a leadership group in the squad, with Warren Whiteley, Eben Etzebeth and Siya Kolisi. It's just a matter of keeping them all fit.

4. Tenacity - In two of their losses this year, the Springboks showed a real tenacity and fortitude in defeat, which was a huge contrast to last year, where it was clear that they were mentally broken. It wasn't an issue of them losing, but it was how they lost.

5. Talent - The Boks gave chances to some younger players, and those that were neglected on the sidelines, and a few of them delivered. Kitsoff, Marx and Wilco Louw, and the du Preez twins all brought something to the table, and Dillyn Leyds had his moments out on the wing.


Problem areas
1. Consistency - The Boks are still struggling to deliver that consistency in their performances. Despite the gains made up front, they fell apart after about 15 minutes against the All Blacks in Albany, where they ended up conceding 57 points and failing to score any of their own, while they were completely outmuscled by the Irish in Dublin. In a sense, there's a serious lack of mental strength at times, and unless this is addressed, they'll struggle to even make the quarterfinals, let alone win the entire tournament.

2. The backline - There are some good players in the Springboks, but they are being badly let down by some key weaknesses. Their 9/10 axis is one of the most troublesome they've ever fielded, with a succession of low-quality 9s (apparently there are a few good 9s filtering through the age grade system, but still) where it was patently obvious that Ross Cronje, who was the preferred 9, was simply not up to the task and as enormously talented as Elton Jantjies is, he simply lacks the temperament to cope with the pressure of test rugby. It is a shame, especially with Jantjies, because there were glimpses of true quality, but his error rate is simply too high. Andries Coetzee failed to convince at 15, and surely, it's a matter of time before Warrick Gelant gets the nod at fullback.

3. Decision making - Far too often, the backline were forced into making rash decisions and getting tunnel vision when it mattered. There were 2 or 3 try scoring opportunities that went astray against Ireland for example, where all they had to do was exploit an overlap, only to kick the ball away, and into Irish hands. At the Super Rugby level, these players are starting to show a willingness to play the ball and throw it around, but then when they get to the test level, it's like they're terrified of it.

4. High ball - Back in 2009, the Springboks were masters under the high ball, both on offence and defence. This was helped in large part by having two of the best defensive wingers in the game at the time (Habana and Pietersen) and a few guys behind them that weren't going to win any Best Player awards in a hurry, but weren't going to embarrass themselves in that department either. In the years since, they started relying heavily on Habana on that front, while it seems those very skills started to atrophy all over the place. They've been far too unsteady under the high ball.

5. Selection - I alluded to this earlier, but there were several questionable selections in this squad - some clearly based on reputation as opposed to form, and some that were probably called up due to whom they played for, over skill. Damian de Allende falls into the former category, where it was clear he was being selected due to previous form. The Boks were rewarded with a series of pedestrian displays at 12, where he lacked the physicality that made him so valuable to the Boks. Meanwhile, Jan Serfontein had a benchmark year, and was the form South African 12, so of course he was "rested" to acclimate him to his move to Montpellier. What the christ. Then there was the persistence with Ruan Dreyer as a starting 3, even when it was clear he was not going to hack it at the test level - he barely could at Super Rugby. Maybe he'll one day blossom into a decent quality player in the future, like Tu'ungafasi has for the All Blacks, but throwing him into the deep end and watching him sink is not the way to do it.

[rowan]

Good analysis. You've obviously seen a lot more of them this year than I had. All I know is that the last decade or so has begun to seem like Groundhog Day at this time of year - OMG! Springboks & Aussies lose in the AIs! the gap is closing! Panic stations everybody! change the coach! change the captain! change the admin! change the PM while you're at it too! & then it's the summer tours and the tables are invariably turned - with substantial interest, and every 4 years the RWC comes around and SH supremacy is confirmed once again - until the next AIs, that is...

[cashead]

Australia has regressed considerably though, and occasional moments like their 2015 RWC miracle run into the final or their win over the All Blacks this year papers over some serious cracks showing in the team. And even those successes come with some qualifications - their 2015 RWC miracle run was possible because
1. Wales tends to shit the bed against SH teams
2. England were awful, just awful at the tournament
3. Craig Joubert had to make a difficult call where the TMO would have come in rather handy, but couldn't and got it wrong

and let's not forget that when they did make the final, they were comfortably beaten, despite a mid-game rally where they got within 4 before getting slapped down with a DC dropped goal and a try to Beauden Barrett.

while their victory over the All Blacks was in a meaningless test match against a largely disinterested All Blacks team.

The Wallabies usually drop a game or two at this time of year, but these results are a culmination of several factors eating away at the team. The biggest issue facing them, IMO, is a culture of blame, rather than ownership. Just listen to the rhetoric this boy spews out. Expecting him to take any responsibility is an exercise in futility because you've made a fatal mistake - it's never his fault, it's never his responsibility. "Wah wah wah, this happened and that happened and he did this and she did that and they did that other thing and it was sunny and it was windy and there was a bit of cloud and wah wah wah wah wah wah wah." Of course, if shit goes right, he can't claim credit fast enough. You then see this filter through into the team, like Kurtley Beale being a big stupid dumb idiot moron lackwit and getting binned two weeks in a row and then arguing about it with the ref both times WHILE THE BIG SCREEN RIGHT BEHIND HIM IS SHOWING WHAT HE DID, WHICH IS THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT HE CLAIMS HE WAS DOING, or Cheika having a tantrum about the Wallabies not getting awarded tries (the ref, AR and TMO were spot on, so shut up. Hooper was a mile offside, and the Koroibete - I think - try would never have withstood TMO scrutiny).

[rowan]

Well, aside from being the only team to beat the All Blacks this year, they also drew both home and away with the Boks (the latter no mean feat), and won both their RC tests with Argentina to finish runners-up in the world's toughest rugby competiton. So they got it together, relatively speaking, when it mattered most.

[rowan]

Oh, sorry, the Lions also beat the All Blacks this year. Wow, it that the first time since 2011 the All Blacks have lost twice in the same year? But two years earlier, in 2009, they had actually been defeated 4 times in one year, which might just be a record extending back 60 years to 49 when they were beaten 4 times by the Boks, twice by the Aussies and once by Rhodesia (which Zimbabwe counts as a test, if no one else does). But I don't think it's a coincidence the SH giants appear at a low ebb right now, smack in the middle of two World Cups. This is the time for rebuilding and experimentation.

[Doorzetbornandbred]

Oh, sorry, the Lions also beat the All Blacks this year. Wow, it that the first time since 2011 the All Blacks have lost twice in the same year? But two years earlier, in 2009, they had actually been defeated 4 times in one year, which might just be a record extending back 60 years to 49 when they were beaten 4 times by the Boks, twice by the Aussies and once by Rhodesia (which Zimbabwe counts as a test, if no one else does). But I don't think it's a coincidence the SH giants appear at a low ebb right now, smack in the middle of two World Cups. This is the time for rebuilding and experimentation.

Didnt they lose 5 in a row in 98(?) under Hart and Randells leadership?

[rowan]

Heck, just checked and you're right! How did that escape my memory? I was still in NZ at the time and involved in the sports journalism industry - but I've got a complete blank on this:

11.07.1998 AUSTRALIA (1) MELBOURNE LOST 16 - 24 Bledisloe Cup & Tri-Nations
25.07.1998 SOUTH AFRICA (1) WELLINGTON LOST 3 - 13 Tri-Nations
01.08.1998 AUSTRALIA (2) CHRISTCHURCH LOST 23 - 27 Bledisloe Cup & Tri-Nations
15.08.1998 SOUTH AFRICA (2) DURBAN LOST 23 - 24 Tri-Nations
29.08.1998 AUSTRALIA (3) SYDNEY LOST 14 - 19 Lost Bledisloe Cup, & Tri-Nations
http://www.rugbyinternational.net/

&, yes, we do have to go back to 49 to surpass that one

[Mr Mwenda]

3. Decision making - Far too often, the backline were forced into making rash decisions and getting tunnel vision when it mattered. There were 2 or 3 try scoring opportunities that went astray against Ireland for example, where all they had to do was exploit an overlap, only to kick the ball away, and into Irish hands. At the Super Rugby level, these players are starting to show a willingness to play the ball and throw it around, but then when they get to the test level, it's like they're terrified of it.

t.

Willingness to play the ball can't come soon enough. Needs to be allied with brain as well. They didn't seem to have many ideas beyond try to smash Ireland and were stupid to think that would work.