‘I think rugby will die in five-10 years if we do nothing’

[Banquo]

Can do - any objections from anyone?

Puja

Democracy but only asMugabe would know it. You've changed.

No, I've always been this much of a tw*t. I've just got power now

Puja

This is true

[bitts]

So, modhat off again, I think this is just general purpose doom-mongering. In 1999, the game was going to die because NZ were failing and would surely be on a downward spiral fom there. It was due to die in 2003 because South Africa was a basket-case and minnows were getting centuries put on them by the established teams. In 2007, the game was due to die because everyone just kicked the ball. In 2015, it was going to die because the Home Nations had failed and the 4N had the game sewn up forever.

To spoil the ending, the game is unlikely to die. It will adapt and it will prosper in different directions. Change will happen, people will complain, doom will be predicted. La plus ça change and all that.

Puja

That was my first inclination. The Guardian, in particular, do seem to dust off this article, and variations of, on a regular basis.

It does make me chuckle how one of the saviours of world rugby is apparently moving into new markets. It's not like we don't have a pretty good case study about what happens when you focus on widening a week product rather than strengthening your current one. Just ask whoever runs Super Rugby. Not saying rugby shouldn't look to expand, just saying the immediate focus should be on improving the countries that currently are actually playing rugby but whose club games could do with a hand.

Also, does no-one else remember the football world cup in USA in 1994? Sure, they eventually got a soccer league ten years later but even now it's a bit of a joke. And that's Soccer, a genuine worldwide game that was already played reasonably widely at school level in USA. How the fck Rugby things it can muscle in on the USA sports market given how hard football has found it is beyond me.

[Stom]

Because the Guardian's two main rugby writers - Kitsonn and Rees - are absolutely abysmal.

[Mr Mwenda]

I guess it rather depends what is meant by 'die'. I do wonder if the overall situation will look a bit more like rugby league or cricket in ten years time. It does seem that several domestic leagues/unions are desperately casting around for a profitable business model.

[Doorzetbornandbred]

As a current Colts Coach and having to deal with the "Age Grade Calendar" its not looking good at Grassroots level. Schools are paying no attention to the Calendar. Clubs are struggling with numbers as schools tell lads your not playing for your club even though there are designated weeks for Club and School competitions. The other thing not helping Clubs and Colts in particular is the number of lads that are in the "elite pathway", far too many of them, lads are getting identified at 13 and I know some personally who were great at 13, had the skills and were relatively big for their age and then at 16/17 still the same size and no way in hell would they make it in the big time so just drift away when they could've had a pretty decent career playing Club rugby in the lower reaches of the game. If things aren't sorted in the next few years then Clubs at the bottom will start vanishing. Having attended a meeting a year ago that was attended by the SW Premiership Clubs Academy fellas also about the Calendar, to hear their views was pretty bloody frightening for rugby. They dont(with one exception) give a shoite about grassroots rugby.

[scuzzaman]

If the Guardian writers are officially "concerned" then I'm convinced the game is in for its best decades ever, starting now.

[Oakboy]

As a current Colts Coach and having to deal with the "Age Grade Calendar" its not looking good at Grassroots level. Schools are paying no attention to the Calendar. Clubs are struggling with numbers as schools tell lads your not playing for your club even though there are designated weeks for Club and School competitions. The other thing not helping Clubs and Colts in particular is the number of lads that are in the "elite pathway", far too many of them, lads are getting identified at 13 and I know some personally who were great at 13, had the skills and were relatively big for their age and then at 16/17 still the same size and no way in hell would they make it in the big time so just drift away when they could've had a pretty decent career playing Club rugby in the lower reaches of the game. If things aren't sorted in the next few years then Clubs at the bottom will start vanishing. Having attended a meeting a year ago that was attended by the SW Premiership Clubs Academy fellas also about the Calendar, to hear their views was pretty bloody frightening for rugby. They dont(with one exception) give a shoite about grassroots rugby.

In the current environment (head injuries, failure to bring age group stars to the top, laws, state of the game etc.), that sounds like a recipe for RU suicide. I have no hands-on experience of the current junior scene but my impression is that schoolchildren's participation in rugby is declining for all sorts of reasons.

[fivepointer]

a lot of juniors give up the game around 16/17 as other things intrude in their lives, school, college, part time work, the opposite sex. a lot of lads just turn it in as they move on to other things. concerns about welfare and narrowing opportunities at schools will just make it harder to attract the 8 to 14 year olds that the game needs as its lifeblood.

[Gloskarlos]

The age group I coach at U10 is very well subscribed, i'm sure its not the same story the country over but M&J section of Old Leamingtonians is thriving, we have 44 in our squad and could field 4 squads with subs easily, numbers have steadily grown over the last 5 years. I'm not involved with the political side at all and don't know if we are an exception, if the club has taken special measures to make us so (one or two may have done but not the club as a whole) or if we are just lucky. We thought that once contact was introduced there would be a level of attrition, not the case, this year we introduce rucks mauls and uncontested scrums, we have had to implement a waiting list! Could all change in 2 years when they go to secondary school and play there as well of course.

[Digby]

Simply to avoid another thread I'll mention here that as per The Times today England are mooting a change to the 6N schedule. Basically England and France will play the tournament over a reduced timeframe and only have a 1 week break during the 6N, which means the first round of the tournament would only see games involving Italy, Scotland, Ireland and Wales, and that during one of the rest weekends for those four we'd see the England Vs France fixture.

It's maybe an idea to get the ball rolling, it'll make the clubs happy perhaps. But it will see England and France going in cold with the other teams already a game up, it'll give the players less rest and there's already talk of strikes, and I don't know the others would trust that England and France wouldn't make that change decide it isn't working and then demand the others move to play in a shortened format anyway.

England couldn't even get the French to back them and lost the proposal 5-1. Mind that was the FFR, and it's likely LNR were more supportive. Perhaps for the best for the RFU given our own players wouldn't have liked the model.

Not easy to see what happens next given the supposed agreement on the global calendar which the players are moving toward striking over rather than accepting, and the clubs wanting more and more money from the RFU. We could lose the AW cup, but that's a rare chance to play youngsters, we could trim the AP to 10 or even 8 sides, we could drop the 6N back to 5 teams, and we could limit the AIs to 3 games only, and we could admit we play the game at a different point in the year to the SH as our seasons are different

[Cameo]

You would think losing the 4th AI would be the easy one in there

[Puja]

I'm still in favour of a winter break myself. Have the domestic season go from August to June, but take December and the first half of January off. That way no-one plays through the SH height of summer or the depths of the NH winter and the break falls in a sensible place, especially if you separate out the ERC and Prem/Top 14/Pro 14 and have the European comps Aug to October and the domestic from January to June.

Puja

[Puja]

You would think losing the 4th AI would be the easy one in there

It is the most profitable though.

Puja

[Digby]

You would think losing the 4th AI would be the easy one in there

It is the most profitable though.

Puja

Do we bring in extra seating for it? Also isn't that the one we tend to end up paying the other team to play which reduces profit? Though I'd take the point it still brings in a lot of money and that to scrap it gives a problem when it comes to handing over money to the clubs

[Puja]

You would think losing the 4th AI would be the easy one in there

It is the most profitable though.

Puja

Do we bring in extra seating for it? Also isn't that the one we tend to end up paying the other team to play which reduces profit? Though I'd take the point it still brings in a lot of money and that to scrap it gives a problem when it comes to handing over money to the clubs

The most profitable of the options to be cut, that is.

Puja

[Digby]

Gotcha. Certainly it's the biggest one off sum, circa £10 million these days I assume, how that'd compare to dropping 2 home league games a season for every remaining AP side I don't know.

[Which Tyler]

I'd be in favour of doing both TBH - drop the Prem to 10, AND drop the 4th AI (and payments from the RFU to clubs beyond player-rental)

[Digby]

I'd be in favour of doing both TBH - drop the Prem to 10, AND drop the 4th AI (and payments from the RFU to clubs beyond player-rental)

Saves the trouble of Bath building the Rec too. Keep Glaws and Exeter down in the south west and ditch Bath

[Mr Mwenda]

The pattern at my home club is thriving mini and junior sections but the senior mens' section is down to two sides. I feel that the club model as a combined social-exercise place no longer fits many players' lives. Having said that the women's section is now up to two teams and in the past seemed very social but i don't know if they partied at the club as they tend to play sundays.

[Banquo]

The pattern at my home club is thriving mini and junior sections but the senior mens' section is down to two sides. I feel that the club model as a combined social-exercise place no longer fits many players' lives. Having said that the women's section is now up to two teams and in the past seemed very social but i don't know if they partied at the club as they tend to play sundays.

not far off mine; we used to run 6 senior sides, a colts team and a full m and j section. Now down to 2/3 senior sides, the latter irregulars; it started with having to have compulsory front row subs, and as you indirectly say, a lot of blokes are no longer allowed to go out all day to play rugby and get lashed. Such is progress

The problem at schools level is happening, with former 'compulsory Rugby for all' being replaced by opt in, over concerns on safety, litigation etc, and I suspect they will start to struggle even more to get refs for these games; I don't know what the stats say, but at my lads old school, there seems to be a lot more, and more serious injuries occurring, as some lads are now starting to bulk up from early ages...

[kk67]

Very different experience in S.London. There are 4/5 clubs in a 10 mile circle with massive minis and junior participation on a Sunday morning, mostly driven by the work of the Dad's/former players. They do seem to suffer from a lack of regular games though.

[kk67]

The tag rugby sessions our club runs early on Sunday morning seems to be a very big draw on parents. It creates a properly family atmosphere.
Many of the parents clearly want their kids to get some exercise to knacker them out and tag rugby is just a bit more of a civilised activity than the local football clubs.

[Banquo]

Very different experience in S.London. There are 4/5 clubs in a 10 mile circle with massive minis and junior participation on a Sunday morning, mostly driven by the work of the Dad's/former players. They do seem to suffer from a lack of regular games though.

....most are saying that mini and junior are thriving, and your description is how must clubs sections are driven. There's more of an issue in schools emerging, and in junior c;ubs, where they are struggling for players in the adult sides.

[kk67]

I understand that. I think we've been very lucky.

[Doorzetbornandbred]

Give you an example of how it is in Devon with the Colts, there are somewhere in the region of 480-500 lads registered as colts players across the clubs. That may seem a lot but there are 24 clubs so 20ish players per squad. My lot have 40 players registered so some squads are bloody small. Now Exeter College who are linked to Chiefs have 120 lads attending there doing rugby. Thats a quarter of all the lads of Colts age in Devon. Then you add in several private schools as well and you then see the problem faced by clubs. I have some lads attending Exeter and some of the private schools, we basically dont see them until after xmas at the earliest. Far from ideal and in the case of the Exeter lad they have 3 teams so in affect 50 lads every week dont get a game. Would they have been better off staying at their old schools and playing club rugby?