The Rugby Magazine - Fantasy Rugby

[Scrumhead]

Bristol have done me a bit of a favour by not rotating as heavily as I thought they would.

My backs should be fine/good but my pack is going to need reinforcements. Right now I have no locks. I could move Dan du Preez, but then I’d have no number 8 ...

[Shiny]

I'm waiting for tommorrows team announcements before I press the panic button but my finger is hovering over it. On the plus side I think most will be in the same boat and there could be some monumentally low scores this round.

[Scrumhead]

Yeah exactly - I’ve tried to plan for the rotation thought would happen, but it’s not that easy ...

I’m expecting most people to have more limited teams out this round with quite a few holes in their 23s.

Being the sad individual I am, I track the scoring on a spreadsheet and even though I scored poorly in round 14, it wasn’t that bad as the average score dropped a lot too, so it was relative. I have it on a graph and my points and the highest and average points all dropped by a similar percentage.

[Shiny]

Yeah exactly - I’ve tried to plan for the rotation thought would happen, but it’s not that easy ...

I’m expecting most people to have more limited teams out this round with quite a few holes in their 23s.

Being the sad individual I am, I track the scoring on a spreadsheet and even though I scored poorly in round 14, it wasn’t that bad as the average score dropped a lot too, so it was relative. I have it on a graph and my points and the highest and average points all dropped by a similar percentage.

Phew, thought it was just me that kept a spreadsheet (not that it does me much good).

[Scrumhead]

I put hours in to mine and I pore over the data on all sorts ... I really don’t think it helps that much.

Currently I’m a handful of points short of where I was at this point last season and probably in a similar place in the overall table.

I also do a ‘squad efficiency’ percentage where I work out what scored vs. what I could have scored. Mostly I sit at 93/94% but last week I dropped right back to 76%.

The problem is, it’s so unpredictable. In round 14, I left out LRZ because he wasn’t starting. May got injured and he scored 22 points. I started him in round 15 and he scored 2 points! How can you plan for that?

I don’t know how to close the gap on the leaders. I’m 450 points off which averages out at 32 points a week or 1.39 points per player, per week. Not a lot week to week, but a gulf when it gets to this point in the season.

[switchskier]

There have been some studies done in the US about whether fantasy leagues are a matter of skill or chance. It matters because it dictates under US gambling law how states regulate them (check out last week's freakonomics podcast if interested). One study found that fantasy leagues were a matter of skill but that there were variations between sports, with ice hockey being the most open to chance and high scoring sports like basketball more predictable. Not sure where rugby would fit but given the highly complex laws and different ways for players in our game to score, I expect it's closer to basketball than hockey.

Next year I might run two teams to see if I can start to crack it. One based on a spreadsheet model and one based on gut instinct.

[switchskier]

There have been some studies done in the US about whether fantasy leagues are a matter of skill or chance. It matters because it dictates under US gambling law how states regulate them (check out last week's freakonomics podcast if interested). One study found that fantasy leagues were a matter of skill but that there were variations between sports, with ice hockey being the most open to chance and high scoring sports like basketball more predictable. Not sure where rugby would fit but given the highly complex laws and different ways for players in our game to score, I expect it's closer to basketball than hockey.

Next year I might run two teams to see if I can start to crack it. One based on a spreadsheet model and one based on gut instinct.

[Scrumhead]

I already do that!

There’s no doubt that the data is useful. Although, as round 14 shows, players who are usually high scorers like Mako Vunipola can have an off week. I wasn’t going to buy him but then I went against my gut, trusted the data and expected him to score well ... up until around 14, he’d averaged 38pts per game he got 5 on the occasion I picked him.

[Puja]

Managed to get a team of starters out without having to take a 20 point hit, although it did require selling Sam Simmonds (at least temporarily). Got two red dots (and 2 grey dots) on the bench, but I've come to the conclusion that it's probably not worth selling to fill those back up.

How's everyone else managed?

Puja

[Scrumhead]

With Mako not being picked again, I managed to use the money to bring on some second row reinforcements and another hooker.

I have a couple of holes on the bench, but a full (and strong looking) team of starters and a couple on the bench too.

I was very tempted to fill one of my bench spots with another cheap (but potentially useful) signing, but I decided against it as I’m sure I’ll need more transfers this weekend!

[Puja]

With Mako not being picked again, I managed to use the money to bring on some second row reinforcements and another hooker.

I have a couple of holes on the bench, but a full (and strong looking) team of starters and a couple on the bench too.

I was very tempted to fill one of my bench spots with another cheap (but potentially useful) signing, but I decided against it as I’m sure I’ll need more transfers this weekend!

Second row and hooker were exactly the same positions that I was screwed in! Who'd you plump for in the end? I went double Saracens with Woolstencroft and Kpoku.

Puja

[Shiny]

I had to temporarily sell a couple to get a team of starters (with only one grey dot) which still leaves me with more red dots on the bench than a chicken pox convention. But apart from that I think it could be a lot worse. Second row and centre were my achilies heel.

[Peej]

I had to temporarily sell a couple to get a team of starters (with only one grey dot) which still leaves me with more red dots on the bench than a chicken pox convention. But apart from that I think it could be a lot worse. Second row and centre were my achilies heel.

Same, really ben undone on second rows, and even my versatile locks have been rotated out. No hooker, no bench props, no second row cover this week. Not good at all! But I still don't think it's worth a 20 point hit to lose a starter from the weekend

[Shiny]

I had to temporarily sell a couple to get a team of starters (with only one grey dot) which still leaves me with more red dots on the bench than a chicken pox convention. But apart from that I think it could be a lot worse. Second row and centre were my achilies heel.

Same, really ben undone on second rows, and even my versatile locks have been rotated out. No hooker, no bench props, no second row cover this week. Not good at all! But I still don't think it's worth a 20 point hit to lose a starter from the weekend

And one of my locks/no8 just failed a late fitness test. I'm not going to replace him. I will live with the gap rather than the 20 point hit.

[Scrumhead]

Yeah - someone sportingly told me Dan du Preez is a late withdrawal ...

[Puja]

Out of the cup by 4 goddamned points! Literally any of my selection or transfer quandries that I thought over would've made the difference If I'd gone the other way!

Puja

I drew, and was knocked out

Oh good, someone worse off than me! I'm currently torturing myself with what-ifs - if Haywood had grounded the ball for Saints instead of having it illegally knocked out of his hands causing a penalty try, I'd've won. Or if the ref had allowed Alex Mitchell grounding the ball after their scrum drove over, instead of resetting and then just giving the penalty try three scrum penalties and a yellow card later, I'd've won.

Bloody pernicious game!

Puja

Holy crap. Having spent the week since Friday complaining about going out of the cup by the slenderest of margins, it turns out that there was a late points readjustment which gained me the grand total of... 5 more points. I went through by a point, after the round had officially ended.

I feel for my opponent, cause that sucks. Still, I'm through which is good - hopefully I get someone lower down this wee... they're in 11th overall. Third round in a row to have someone in the top 15! That's just statistically improbable!

Puja

[Greebo]

I feel for my opponent, cause that sucks. Still, I'm through which is good - hopefully I get someone lower down this wee... they're in 11th overall. Third round in a row to have someone in the top 15! That's just statistically improbable!

Puja

May the odds be ever in you favour...

[Puja]

I feel for my opponent, cause that sucks. Still, I'm through which is good - hopefully I get someone lower down this wee... they're in 11th overall. Third round in a row to have someone in the top 15! That's just statistically improbable!

Puja

May the odds be ever in you favour...

I guess I can't really complain after getting an improbable late reprieve to even get to this round!

Puja

[Shiny]

Just seen on Twitter there is a data problem during tonight’s games. There may not be real time updates in case anyone is wondering why their scores are really low (or if you are like me you just do rubbish picks).

[Scrumhead]

Ah - that makes a bit more sense. I could see it wasn’t up to date but wasn’t sure why.

So far, it looks like my optimism may have been a little misplaced. I was banking on Wasps beating Sale 2s and Bristol beating Exeter 2s. How wrong I was!

I hope Quins 2s are taking note for when we travel to Worcester to play their 1s tomorrow.

[Peej]

What I thought may have been a terrible week has been salvaged slightly by good performances by Uren, Mercer, Obano and Morahan

[Scrumhead]

It’ll be a decent week for me, but I have a brain fart every damn round ...

This week’s was going for Marais after planning to sign Woolstencroft since the teams were announced ... I could have been about 50 points better off barring one silly change of heart.

[switchskier]

It’ll be a decent week for me, but I have a brain fart every damn round ...

This week’s was going for Marais after planning to sign Woolstencroft since the teams were announced ... I could have been about 50 points better off barring one silly change of heart.

A mistake that lots of people made with Marais being the most signed player for this round. Could have been worse and signed Taylor like I did.

Interesting that Dombrandt was the most released player. Evidently I was no alone in thinking that his points total hadn't matched his potential for a while.

[Scrumhead]

True. With Dombrandt, I imagine it’s more to do with him not playing this round and being expensive enough to sell and make a couple of signings.

Despite most of the ones I have not playing tonight, I’m seriously considering binning off all of my Quins players right now. We’re just woeful at the moment. Saints aren’t looking much better but I expect them to beat us on Sunday.

[Puja]

I went double Saracens with Woolstencroft and Kpoku.

As it turns out, Woolstencroft was an okay choice.

True. With Dombrandt, I imagine it’s more to do with him not playing this round and being expensive enough to sell and make a couple of signings.

Despite most of the ones I have not playing tonight, I’m seriously considering binning off all of my Quins players right now. We’re just woeful at the moment. Saints aren’t looking much better but I expect them to beat us on Sunday.

I think you're right on Dombrandt being both popular, not playing and expensive. I didn't sell him this week (selling Simmonds instead) and it's turned out to be a terrible decision - he's dropped £30k in value!

Puja