Brexit delayed

[fivepointer]

50 simple chunks of reality to help MPs in these difficult times.

1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is not up for renegotiation
2. The Political Declaration (PD) might be tweaked cosmetically
3. The future relationship will be negotiated during the transition period
4. There will be no transition without the WA
5. The will be no WA without the Financial Settlement
6. A backstop cannot be unilaterally ended or it is not a backstop
7. There will be no WA without a backstop
8. The PD is not a deal on the future relationship
9. The PD is wish list, not binding
10. The PD leaves huge, crucial questions entirely open
11. The level of access to EU markets and programmes is dependent on the level of alignment to EU rules UKGov is willing to commit to.
12. UK restrictions to Freedom of Movement will be directly reciprocated by EU27 for UK citizens
13. Frictionless trade is impossible outside the Single Market and a Customs Union.
14. Neither the Single Market or a Customs union are enough alone for frictionless trade
15. Single Market membership requires Freedom of Movement, whoever is negotiating it
16. EFTA membership is technically very difficult to combine with membership of a Customs Union
17. EFTA/EEA membership requires acceptance of Freedom of Movement.
18. EFTA or EEA membership means very little influence and no formal control over Single Market rules.
19. Adjusting the PD to include EEA+CU would not eliminate the need for a backstop.
20. A New EEA pillar with a customs Union would not be off-the-shelf, and would need to be negotiated.
21. Negotiations on any future relationship may fail.
22. UKGov has explicitly ruled out being in the Single Market, making this a hard, not a soft Brexit.
23. Labour has implicitly ruled out being in the Single Market by not accepting FoM or EU State Aid rules that are required fro membership of it
24. No Deal is a certain national catastrophe
25. There is no such thing as a “WTO Deal”
26. The UK already trades extensively with non-EU countries
27. The projected economic benefits of new trade deals are very small in comparison to Single Market Membership
28. There are, in practice, no EU tariffs on goods from the poorest countries in the world
29. The WA does not protect all rights for EU Citizens in the UK or UK Citizens in the EU.
30. It does not allow either groups to live “exactly as before”.
31. UKGov has complete control over its policy towards non-EU migration
32. It is impossible to enter the UK, except across the IE/NI border, without having your passport checked.
33. Article 50 can be revoked, certainly with EU27 agreement, probably unilaterally.
34. Article 50 can be extended, with EU27 agreement.
35. The EU27's priority is to avoid a chaotic no deal Brexit while not crossing their red lines
36. EU27 will not negotiate a future relationship that crosses their red lines.
37. EU27 are likely to agree to an extension for a Ratify V Remain Referendum
38. EU27 are by now largely ambivalent about which one is chosen
39. EU27 are unlikely to grant an extension for more messing around with obvious route to a solution.
40. EU27 are unlikely to grant an extension and will not reopen the WA just due to a change of government
41. Reviewing a previous decision using the same method that decision was based on is not undemocratic
42. Proceeding with Brexit will not heal divisions
43. There is no problem that being poorer helps.
44. All versions of Brexit will leave the UK poorer.
45. EU Member States are unlikely to allow UK rejoin for many years, possibly decades
46. UK would retain it’s vetoes, opt-outs, and rebate if it remained a member of the EU
47. No responsible Government or Parliament could allow No Deal
48. MPs should not vote for any deal they believe to be bad for the country.
49. UKGov can choose to try to stop a No Deal Brexit at any time before it happens.
50. If No deal happened, it would be because the Government had chosen not to stop it, and considered that appalling harm to the UK and its population was worth it for their own political ends.

Coutesy of Steve Bullock.

[Mellsblue]

I pray nightly to a god I don’t think exists that I don’t have to live through another referendum but if it did happen it looks like it would be squeaky bum time with no clear majority:

[cashead]

I suppose this would be largely driven by how much of a shitshow Brexit has been, and the mass exposure of just how full of shit the Brexiters really were.

[Sandydragon]

I suppose this would be largely driven by how much of a shitshow Brexit has been, and the mass exposure of just how full of shit the Brexiters really were.

Yeah but it’s all May’s fault. Too many hold to this belief that a hard Brexit would be fine; a referendum would be a gamble.

[Mellsblue]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/my-w ... -frr3b9v70

This is gold, and, as always with Brexit, I had to double check whether it was Rifkind or Shipman who wrote it.

[Mellsblue]

Whereas the rest of the country is sick and tired of Brexit, it seems Jezza is still very excited about the opportunities it presents:

[Digby]

With delays coming to medical supplies he may not be getting an erection

Nice to get confirmation from the European court we can have no brexit, albeit that'd have to be subject to another vote, parliament has no mandate for such

[Mellsblue]

What majority would Remain need in the second referendum to overturn the result of the first? As most have agreed on here, a simple majority is not sufficient? Also, when would the SNP get their second referendum?

[Digby]

Bigger picture I wouldn't go for 50% + one vote but as that's the standard this time around I'd stick with it, although we might well not have a binary vote, we might have three if not four options and some version of a transferable vote and depending on what the vote looks like what has some semblance of fairness in appearance might vary

I'm pleased it wouldn’t be my job to set an actual question and regulations on outcome, a fiendishly hard task. In part we're in the current mess because we asked a stupid question with no mandate arising

[Sandydragon]

In future it should be at least 60% for something like this. But for the re run them the same Del although I’d go for multiple options and transferable voting. There are at least three options and a straight choice between Mays deal and hard Brexit would be hugely opposed. Remaining has to be on the ballot, although the Brexiteers will fight tooth and nail to avoid another referendum and to limit the scope to leaving options only.

[fivepointer]

Any major constitutional change like Brexit should have required at least a 55% vote in favour of it, plus a minimum turnout. Another blunder by Cameron.
A 2nd vote would have to be run on 50% +1 basis as the original was.
No sane Govt can possibly put forward a No deal option. Having rightly warned about the damaging impact that this would have, it is inconceivable that this would be an option.
It would have to be Mays deal or remain.
That is likely to be the only options that the EU would accept as an A50 extension would be required. That is in their gift. Abandoning the whole wretched enterprise is now in our hands.

[Stom]

Any major constitutional change like Brexit should have required at least a 55% vote in favour of it, plus a minimum turnout. Another blunder by Cameron.
A 2nd vote would have to be run on 50% +1 basis as the original was.
No sane Govt can possibly put forward a No deal option. Having rightly warned about the damaging impact that this would have, it is inconceivable that this would be an option.
It would have to be Mays deal or remain.
That is likely to be the only options that the EU would accept as an A50 extension would be required. That is in their gift. Abandoning the whole wretched enterprise is now in our hands.

If this government is going to put forward a second ref., they're going to do it on 2 choices: May's deal or No Deal.

If Labour can whip up enough support for a gen. election...AND get the extension from the EU, then they could present a referendum on new deal vs remain.

But that requires them to win a gen. Which is no given. If they do not win, we will get Brexit. It's a really, really hard choice...

[Digby]

As things stand if Labour win we get brexit, Corbyn loves the EU as much as Farage so why a Labour win helps anything isn't clear

[Stom]

As things stand if Labour win we get brexit, Corbyn loves the EU as much as Farage so why a Labour win helps anything isn't clear

If they win a gen., they will put forward a leave/stay ref., otherwise their government would last all of 5 minutes.

[Mellsblue]

Brilliant. Two years moaning about 50% +1 being a stupid way to settle such an important issue, but now it would be to remain’s advantage it’s ok.
What happens when the result is close again? If Remain wins is it compromise, ie Norway. Or winner takes all and gets exactly what they want?
Nobody wondering/worried about the platform and precedent it gives Sturgeon for IndyRef2?
Anybody who thinks Corbyn would campaign for Remain is delusional. He’ll do the same as he did last time.

[Mellsblue]

As things stand if Labour win we get brexit, Corbyn loves the EU as much as Farage so why a Labour win helps anything isn't clear

If they win a gen., they will put forward a leave/stay ref., otherwise their government would last all of 5 minutes.

Their chief financier and leader think differently. Regardless, it’ll either be in their manifesto or not; there won’t be a falling of the government.

[Mellsblue]

Any major constitutional change like Brexit should have required at least a 55% vote in favour of it, plus a minimum turnout. Another blunder by Cameron.
A 2nd vote would have to be run on 50% +1 basis as the original was.
No sane Govt can possibly put forward a No deal option. Having rightly warned about the damaging impact that this would have, it is inconceivable that this would be an option.
It would have to be Mays deal or remain.
That is likely to be the only options that the EU would accept as an A50 extension would be required. That is in their gift. Abandoning the whole wretched enterprise is now in our hands.

If this government is going to put forward a second ref., they're going to do it on 2 choices: May's deal or No Deal.

If Labour can whip up enough support for a gen. election...AND get the extension from the EU, then they could present a referendum on new deal vs remain.

But that requires them to win a gen. Which is no given. If they do not win, we will get Brexit. It's a really, really hard choice...

The govt have little to no power on this - see the vote being delayed today. Their official line is no second ref at all. If they are forced in to one, they’ll have little to no say in what’s on there.

[Mellsblue]

As an aside, I love that ruling said that unilaterally revoking A50 was allowed as it was consistent with ever closer union. That is some top level trolling/WUMing.

[Which Tyler]

In an absolutely unprecedented move; Theresa has decided to... kick the can down the road; in the hopes that it will force people to agree with her as time runs out.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46509288

[Digby]

Brilliant. Two years moaning about 50% +1 being a stupid way to settle such an important issue, but now it would be to remain’s advantage it’s ok.
What happens when the result is close again? If Remain wins is it compromise, ie Norway. Or winner takes all and gets exactly what they want?
Nobody wondering/worried about the platform and precedent it gives Sturgeon for IndyRef2?
Anybody who thinks Corbyn would campaign for Remain is delusional. He’ll do the same as he did last time.

We don't know how people would vote so we don't know whose advantage it might be, but it is the standard for now even if it's not one we should look to use again

[Mellsblue]

Brilliant. Two years moaning about 50% +1 being a stupid way to settle such an important issue, but now it would be to remain’s advantage it’s ok.
What happens when the result is close again? If Remain wins is it compromise, ie Norway. Or winner takes all and gets exactly what they want?
Nobody wondering/worried about the platform and precedent it gives Sturgeon for IndyRef2?
Anybody who thinks Corbyn would campaign for Remain is delusional. He’ll do the same as he did last time.

We don't know how people would vote so we don't know whose advantage it might be, but it is the standard for now even if it's not one we should look to use again

50%+1 now suits Remain as they/you are looking to overturn the status quo. By all previous arguments on here you should have at least 55%+1 when changing the status quo.

[Digby]

Brilliant. Two years moaning about 50% +1 being a stupid way to settle such an important issue, but now it would be to remain’s advantage it’s ok.
What happens when the result is close again? If Remain wins is it compromise, ie Norway. Or winner takes all and gets exactly what they want?
Nobody wondering/worried about the platform and precedent it gives Sturgeon for IndyRef2?
Anybody who thinks Corbyn would campaign for Remain is delusional. He’ll do the same as he did last time.

We don't know how people would vote so we don't know whose advantage it might be, but it is the standard for now even if it's not one we should look to use again

50%+1 now suits Remain as they/you are looking to overturn the status quo. By all previous arguments on here you should have at least 55%+1 when changing the status quo.

We haven't left yet

[Digby]

There was more gumption to Charlie Hodgson's tackling than is being shown by the PM. And if we're really going to ask for a legal commitment that the backstop not be used I despair, we're either seeking some use of words that doesn't change anything or we're trying to make the backstop not be a backstop

[Mellsblue]

We don't know how people would vote so we don't know whose advantage it might be, but it is the standard for now even if it's not one we should look to use again

50%+1 now suits Remain as they/you are looking to overturn the status quo. By all previous arguments on here you should have at least 55%+1 when changing the status quo.

We haven't left yet

The status quo is that we are in the process of leaving and even legislation stating the date we will leave. To change the status quo, ie to halt the process of leaving, you have repeatedly argued or agreed that this should have a higher threshold than 50%+1. I happen to agree, I just find it funny/disheartening/unsurprising that people so adamant that 50%+1 is so fatally flawed are now happy to use that system as it gives them a better chance of winning.

[Digby]

50%+1 now suits Remain as they/you are looking to overturn the status quo. By all previous arguments on here you should have at least 55%+1 when changing the status quo.

We haven't left yet

The status quo is that we are in the process of leaving and even legislation stating the date we will leave. To change the status quo, ie to halt the process of leaving, you have repeatedly argued or agreed that this should have a higher threshold than 50%+1. I happen to agree, I just find it funny/disheartening/unsurprising that people so adamant that 50%+1 is so fatally flawed are now happy to use that system as it gives them a better chance of winning.

It's a point of view, but having set the standard it doesn't seem remotely odd that people consider the standard set. If only for now and any future issue should need something more like 60%, whether getting rid of the royal family, legalising guns or yet another EU referendum