Brexit delayed

[Digby]

The WA is an organised version of kicking the can down the road whilst the EU and other nations work out a way of giving us worse deals than we currently have

Any number of firms in finance could really use knowing where we stand, ideally as close to where we stand today, the equivalency analysis isn't due for many, many months and I assume will be delayed, we don't know if in future if we'll have non regressive or dynamic alignment, we do know even where we get an equivalence based market access the EU can withdraw it with notice of all of one month (30 days)

And the WA is almost certain to run until 2022, and no doubt can in practice be extended further, and it's not uncertainty from now until then we've already had years of uncertainty

So yes May's deal is better than no deal, vastly so, but it's still a steaming pile of shit. I'd probably find more sense in clicking on one of the porn links now littering the site

[Banquo]

So yes May's deal is better than no deal, vastly so,

which was mostly my point. Your main objection seems to be the time it will take to get any certainty, and you are working on the assumption that we will be out-negotiated by the EU. Which is fair.

Anything that anyone comes up with will look like a pile of crap compared to what we have, daft innit.

Your second paragraph makes no sense to me, but I'm sure that was intentional.

[Digby]

So yes May's deal is better than no deal, vastly so,

which was mostly my point. Your main objection seems to be the time it will take to get any certainty, and you are working on the assumption that we will be out-negotiated by the EU. Which is fair.

Anything that anyone comes up with will look like a pile of crap compared to what we have, daft innit.

Your second paragraph makes no sense to me, but I'm sure that was intentional.

I thought it was clear, but my English teacher at school thought I was polite but an idiot who shouldn't be trusted to write a birthday card.

[Stones of granite]

They’ve been struggling, in various guises, for years. Unfortunately, Brexit is just a convenient excuse for a number of failing and struggling companies at the moment, and, in this case, is one of a number of factors, as set out in the body of the article once you get past the headline.
Ironically, the EU Commision setout the plan for continued flights on Friday.

Yeah, any airline that goes under now will blame brexit when it's their mismanagement that caused it.

To be honest, Brexit and its consequences is the most credible from the litany of excuses that the BMIRegional management have given. For example, aviation fuel is at its lowest price since November 2017.

[Sandydragon]

And so seven Labour MPs set off into the political centre ground/wilderness (depending on your perspective) protesting at anti Semitism and Brexit policy in Labour.

The key question will be how many others might follow?

[Zhivago]

And so seven Labour MPs set off into the political centre ground/wilderness (depending on your perspective) protesting at anti Semitism and Brexit policy in Labour.

The key question will be how many others might follow?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -join-new/
"It came as Anna Soubry sparked speculation she is preparing to jump ship after removing a Conservative party slogan from her social media profile."

[Sandydragon]

And so seven Labour MPs set off into the political centre ground/wilderness (depending on your perspective) protesting at anti Semitism and Brexit policy in Labour.

The key question will be how many others might follow?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... -join-new/
"It came as Anna Soubry sparked speculation she is preparing to jump ship after removing a Conservative party slogan from her social media profile."

There might be a couple. Interesting times.

What baffles me is the lack of profile the Lib Dema currently have. They should be in a position to clean up the centre ground, but they aren’t seen as an alternative.

[Stom]

Chukka wants a run at PM.

Doesn't quite understand that he's a snake and will be stamped on as soon as anyone gets a chance...

It's honestly a good thing. Get all the Conservatives out of both parties into a new right of centre party that fits the requirements. Let the Tories be their right wing selves, let Labour be their left wing selves.

It's just a crying shame there's no-one really credible within either party to stand up and be counted AND who represents and stands for the core values their party also represents/should represent.

[Puja]

The whole idea of a new third political party in the UK is utterly pointless until we sort out our antiquated electoral system that forces a two party contest. You cannot have genuine multi-party competition for government while FPtP exists.

It's a point McDonnell appears to have missed in his instant claim that Ummuna et al should call instant by-elections. At least the Secret Seven can be vaguely relied upon as an anti-Tory, anti-austerity voting bloc, whereas a by-election would likely see some of the seats lost to the Conservatives if the left vote split evenly.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

The whole idea of a new third political party in the UK is utterly pointless until we sort out our antiquated electoral system that forces a two party contest. You cannot have genuine multi-party competition for government while FPtP exists.

It's a point McDonnell appears to have missed in his instant claim that Ummuna et al should call instant by-elections. At least the Secret Seven can be vaguely relied upon as an anti-Tory, anti-austerity voting bloc, whereas a by-election would likely see some of the seats lost to the Conservatives if the left vote split evenly.

Puja

If it’s just 7 MPs then it will make little difference. If a larger number move across then it could become very interesting. Their immediate disadvantage is that they don’t have the party machinery to support them, but they could split votes.

[Stom]

The whole idea of a new third political party in the UK is utterly pointless until we sort out our antiquated electoral system that forces a two party contest. You cannot have genuine multi-party competition for government while FPtP exists.

It's a point McDonnell appears to have missed in his instant claim that Ummuna et al should call instant by-elections. At least the Secret Seven can be vaguely relied upon as an anti-Tory, anti-austerity voting bloc, whereas a by-election would likely see some of the seats lost to the Conservatives if the left vote split evenly.

Puja

If it’s just 7 MPs then it will make little difference. If a larger number move across then it could become very interesting. Their immediate disadvantage is that they don’t have the party machinery to support them, but they could split votes.

I imagine a fair few less loony Tories will join them. Then they'll be bigger than the Lib Dems...

If it means we have a "centrist" party, great. They'll take votes from both Tories and Labour. And until either other party gets their act together and makes the "difficult" decision regarding Brexit, they'll get votes.

[Sandydragon]

The Tory problem is infiltration from UKIP which is helped by some of the right wing MPs who have lurked under the radar for years and have only recently got any media attention.

There is still an opportunity to redeem the party and pull it back towards the centre. But if Boris or JRM become the next leader, then standby for defections.

[Stom]

The Tory problem is infiltration from UKIP which is helped by some of the right wing MPs who have lurked under the radar for years and have only recently got any media attention.

There is still an opportunity to redeem the party and pull it back towards the centre. But if Boris or JRM become the next leader, then standby for defections.

May's Brexit stance has alienated too much of the party. There's at least 3-4 MPs who could leave and join this new "centrist" party.

And for the Conservatives to return to centre-right would need Ummama to give up the centre-right he's just staking claim to.

No, the Conservatives are going to be right, Labour are going to be left. The new party will be centre-right and the Lib Dems will be centre-left until they crash and burn very soon thanks to some of the worst leadership decisions ever made.

[Digby]

Parties come and go all the time, it's only the Conservative party of the current lot who've shown any durability.

Very likely the seven get nowhere, but that's not an end to seeking a new beginning. And there's plenty of momentum which can be realised if it's wanted

[Digby]

Calling Chukka centre right made me chortle

[Sandydragon]

Calling Chukka centre right made me chortle

Yeah, new too.

[canta_brian]

The whole idea of a new third political party in the UK is utterly pointless until we sort out our antiquated electoral system that forces a two party contest. You cannot have genuine multi-party competition for government while FPtP exists.

It's a point McDonnell appears to have missed in his instant claim that Ummuna et al should call instant by-elections. At least the Secret Seven can be vaguely relied upon as an anti-Tory, anti-austerity voting bloc, whereas a by-election would likely see some of the seats lost to the Conservatives if the left vote split evenly.

Puja

If it’s just 7 MPs then it will make little difference. If a larger number move across then it could become very interesting. Their immediate disadvantage is that they don’t have the party machinery to support them, but they could split votes.

Agree it’s just 7, this evening they are up to 8. The Dup has only 10 and that was worth a billion.

Any chance this will end up being a move towards proportional representation?

[Digby]

The whole idea of a new third political party in the UK is utterly pointless until we sort out our antiquated electoral system that forces a two party contest. You cannot have genuine multi-party competition for government while FPtP exists.

It's a point McDonnell appears to have missed in his instant claim that Ummuna et al should call instant by-elections. At least the Secret Seven can be vaguely relied upon as an anti-Tory, anti-austerity voting bloc, whereas a by-election would likely see some of the seats lost to the Conservatives if the left vote split evenly.

Puja

If it’s just 7 MPs then it will make little difference. If a larger number move across then it could become very interesting. Their immediate disadvantage is that they don’t have the party machinery to support them, but they could split votes.

Even just the 8 gives May a headache, before the ERG had the far stronger nuclear option of bringing down the government by splitting off. Now May can't afford to lose even a low number of europhiles who suddenly have a possible home

[Sandydragon]

The whole idea of a new third political party in the UK is utterly pointless until we sort out our antiquated electoral system that forces a two party contest. You cannot have genuine multi-party competition for government while FPtP exists.

It's a point McDonnell appears to have missed in his instant claim that Ummuna et al should call instant by-elections. At least the Secret Seven can be vaguely relied upon as an anti-Tory, anti-austerity voting bloc, whereas a by-election would likely see some of the seats lost to the Conservatives if the left vote split evenly.

Puja

If it’s just 7 MPs then it will make little difference. If a larger number move across then it could become very interesting. Their immediate disadvantage is that they don’t have the party machinery to support them, but they could split votes.

Agree it’s just 7, this evening they are up to 8. The Dup has only 10 and that was worth a billion.

Any chance this will end up being a move towards proportional representation?

I very much doubt it.

[Sandydragon]

The whole idea of a new third political party in the UK is utterly pointless until we sort out our antiquated electoral system that forces a two party contest. You cannot have genuine multi-party competition for government while FPtP exists.

It's a point McDonnell appears to have missed in his instant claim that Ummuna et al should call instant by-elections. At least the Secret Seven can be vaguely relied upon as an anti-Tory, anti-austerity voting bloc, whereas a by-election would likely see some of the seats lost to the Conservatives if the left vote split evenly.

Puja

If it’s just 7 MPs then it will make little difference. If a larger number move across then it could become very interesting. Their immediate disadvantage is that they don’t have the party machinery to support them, but they could split votes.

Even just the 8 gives May a headache, before the ERG had the far stronger nuclear option of bringing down the government by splitting off. Now May can't afford to lose even a low number of europhiles who suddenly have a possible home

May could do with 40 odd Labour MPs jumping ship so she could ignore the ERG.

[fivepointer]

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/poli ... sideration

Seems a logical, sane way forward. Will MPs grasp the opportunity?

[Banquo]

The whole idea of a new third political party in the UK is utterly pointless until we sort out our antiquated electoral system that forces a two party contest. You cannot have genuine multi-party competition for government while FPtP exists.

It's a point McDonnell appears to have missed in his instant claim that Ummuna et al should call instant by-elections. At least the Secret Seven can be vaguely relied upon as an anti-Tory, anti-austerity voting bloc, whereas a by-election would likely see some of the seats lost to the Conservatives if the left vote split evenly.

Puja

If it’s just 7 MPs then it will make little difference. If a larger number move across then it could become very interesting. Their immediate disadvantage is that they don’t have the party machinery to support them, but they could split votes.

Even just the 8 gives May a headache, before the ERG had the far stronger nuclear option of bringing down the government by splitting off. Now May can't afford to lose even a low number of europhiles who suddenly have a possible home

Could find ourselves in an election.....

[Digby]

Could find ourselves in an election.....

We really only need a big hike in inflation and we'd be ticking banana republic status across the board

[Puja]

Could find ourselves in an election.....

We really only need a big hike in inflation and we'd be ticking banana republic status across the board

I think you'll find banana republics actually have exports.

Puja

[Zhivago]

3 tory defectors confirmed, we're up to eleven now