Statistic of the Day

[zer0]

I don't think it's too controversial to say that England would probably win, were they to play the AB's next week instead of Australia. I haven't seen their matches, but it sounds as though England are playing well -- you certainly don't defeat a quality team like Argentina while being a man down for 75 minutes if you're not playing well. Similarly the AB's from Beldisloe III onward have been a clear step down on their TRC form, with the last two matches being won through brutal defence and iron will. Those are both admirable traits, but I'm not sure if they would currently be enough to defeat England in England. Of course there is no game, so it's all a somewhat pointless hypothetical exercise.

Besides, come next years Lions series, it will not be the AB's who will be enduring the effects of club rugby fatigue while fighting their way through a brutal midweek schedule. So I wouldn't think that the EOYT results will bear too much of a resemblance to next years tour.

[rowan]

Well, I do suspect this is a wind-up, but, breifly, I've now read comments in the New Zealand press, as well as from the Argentine management, talking about the fatigue factor. So if you want to run about excitedly claiming that the gap has closed, the tables have turned, and England would beat the All Blacks tomorrow, good luck to you. It sounds very similiar to the discussions I was having on another forum (which booted me off for "arguing too much)" after the 2014 Autumn tours - and before the 2015 World Cup. This time we won't have to wait for the 2019 World Cup to get things back into perspective, however. The All Blacks - Lions series next year should settle the issue in the usual manner...

[Which Tyler]

All I'll point out there is that the fatigue factor has never been considered good enough for the last 20 years of NH sides touring the SH after more rugby and a shorter off-season.

[rowan]

Firstly I think it has, back in the nineties when they were conceding cricket scores, secondly Southern Hemisphere rugby is much more intensive - and are you taking club and provincial games into account, or just Super Rugby and internationals? Thirdly, if the teams themselves are talking about the fatigue factor, I doubt they're just making it up. Fourthly, European fans have been misled badly by Autumn tour results so many times in the past - notably in 2014 when I had exactly these kinds of discussions elsewhere - you'd think they'd have figured it out by now. But I guess I shouldn't begrduge you your delusions, because they'll be shattered soon enough.

[Which Tyler]

Firstly - You'd be wrong; fatigue was considered just an excuse by a bunch of whinging POMS / Frogs (Welsh and Irish weren't good enough to be considered whinging then)
Secondly - I tend to look at minutes played by the individuals; which wasn't such an issue for Wales / Ireland in the past; and has reduced for England over the last 6-8 years, whilst increasing for the SH to be about the same level now.
Thirdly - It depends on how they're talking about it to me. Personally I think fatigue is a very good reason for sub-par performance, I'm simply pointing out that the SH didn't before they were the ones suffering from it.
Forthly - Define "European fans" - I doubt you'll find many actual fans who have been mislead in the slightest; the media, and the casual onlookers who think the media know what they're talking abuot - then yeah; but that's because our media loves nothing more than building up our sports teams ahead of time, and then tearing them down afterwards.
Fifthly - What delusions are those? I doubt you'll find (m)any here.

[rowan]

No, wait, I'm swayed by your thoroughly convincing arguments. On the basis of the AIs I now await a series whitewash for the Lions over the All Blacks next year, and an all-European semi-finals lineup in Japan in 2019. Not at all unreasonable, is it?!

[rowan]

Among the "8 foundation members" of World Rugby, Scotland's failure to ever beat the All Blacks is now the only zero remaining of all the head-to-head match-ups.

[hellovating]

the 14th emoji convinced me.

[Which Tyler]

No, wait, I'm swayed by your thoroughly convincing arguments. On the basis of the AIs I now await a series whitewash for the Lions over the All Blacks next year, and an all-European semi-finals lineup in Japan in 2019. Not at all unreasonable, is it?!

Talking of delusions...

How on earth have I "convinced" you of any of that? I think you might be confusing for one of our (many) really bad journalists.

[Mr Mwenda]

Rowan, for someone who seems to believe that more tests with minnows will grow rugby all over the place you seem surprisingly averse to the idea that anything could ever change at the top.

[morepork]

It's humour.

None of you would understand.

[Mr Mwenda]

But not as we know it, Jim.

[rowan]

It's a wind-up, clearly, but it ain't humor.

[tigran]

All I'll point out there is that the fatigue factor has never been considered good enough for the last 20 years of NH sides touring the SH after more rugby and a shorter off-season.

As you say, I've lost count how many times I've been laughed at in here for pointing out the fact the french were exhausted in June...

[rowan]

Obviously all these mighty Northern Hemisphere teams were fatigued at the World Cup, too, when it mattered most.

Btw, no one's actually asked me, but I've already pointed out the same applies to the spring tours, and that not so long ago it was becoming farcical, to the point they were literally discussing the idea of scrapping them. The same is now occuring at the other end of the planet, but we all know why it's nece$$ary, of course. I don't even begrudge them that. It just needs to be kept in perspective, is all.

[tigran]

Rowan, you're a bit new in here if I'm not wrong...all this has been debated for long years, and already before the ABs managed to get two WCs..

[rowan]

Yes, I discussed it on another forum after the 2014 AIs. The discussion was very similar to this. They were all convinced the gap had closed, the tables had turned, and Ireland were going to meet England in the World Cup final. I was seen as some antagonistic wind-up merchant for suggesting otherwise. The rest is history...

[tigran]

Yep, you didn't discuss it before that final in 2011 ? Where the mighty ABs were seen as second best against France by all the neutrals and won by a big one point ?

The gap has closed indeed.

The ABs have been exceptional last WC, France have been abysmal the last four years, England on transition. so a new gap had been created..But it doesn't mean the gap is bound to stay like the last four years for all eternity..

[Lizard]

Let's look at some figures for NH (6N + Lions) v SH (RC).
This year, NH sides have won 50% of matches v SH, with the tie-breaker this weekend.

That is easily the best return in the pro era. The last 50% win rate was in 1993. The last one over 50% was in 1982.

In 2015, the rate was 0.00%.

For 1996 to 2014, the annual rate varied between 13.0% to 42.5%

So, yes, 2016 has seen an unusually high success rate by the NH, but it is not yet clear if it is a longer term trend.

[J Dory]

Yep, you didn't discuss it before that final in 2011 ? Where the mighty ABs were seen as second best against France by all the neutrals and won by a big one point ?

The gap has closed indeed.

The ABs have been exceptional last WC, France have been abysmal the last four years, England on transition. so a new gap had been created..But it doesn't mean the gap is bound to stay like the last four years for all eternity..

On aggregate the score was NZ 45 France 24. NZ 2 wins, France zero.

NZ world cup winners, France world cup losers.

[rowan]

The idea of a congruent gap between the hemispheres has always been a bit of a fallacy. When you say the gap is closing, are we to surmise that Scotland & Wales are getting closer to the All Blacks? & how about Italy? Are they part of the equation? What happen to them against the All Blacks a couple of weeks ago? If we look at short term trends, say the last 5 or 6 years, New Zealand, England, Ireland and Argentina have improved, while South Africa, France and Wales have been struggling - relatively speaking. Australia and Scotland have been relatively stable, overall, while Italy's win over the Boks is already beginning to look like a blip on the radar (as is Japan's). There's nothing uniform about this. There is no congruent gap between the hemispheres. It has to be analysed team by team, and basing your entire hypothesis on the AIs is delusionary.

[tigran]

all right with that

shut up Doryfish

[morepork]

all right with that

shut up Doryfish

san piero fish is very tasty.

[tigran]

Yeah, you bet.

But this one is too antipodean

[morepork]

Yeah, you bet.

But this one is too antipodean

My wife thinks the NZ version is less salty than the med version.

That came out sounding bad.