RugbyRebels

p/d wrote:Another one in the bag for Wuss

Wuss now 16 clear of Irish. i think they're safe.

Dogfight between Irish and Newcastle. I know who I expect to make it.

Trying to work out what's made Wuss click all of a sudden…
No winning BPs but we've won 5/6 previous games, including 2 away…

Hougaard is good, but surely not that good.

Cracking run of form to make us (pretty) safe – though I expect Exeter to show us up a bit next week

Renniks wrote:Trying to work out what's made Wuss click all of a sudden…
No winning BPs but we've won 5/6 previous games, including 2 away…

Hougaard is good, but surely not that good.

Cracking run of form to make us (pretty) safe – though I expect Exeter to show us up a bit next week

The 6N will have helped. Strip everyone else of their internationals and suddenly the field is more level.

Renniks wrote:Trying to work out what's made Wuss click all of a sudden…
No winning BPs but we've won 5/6 previous games, including 2 away…

Hougaard is good, but surely not that good.

Cracking run of form to make us (pretty) safe – though I expect Exeter to show us up a bit next week

They were beneficiaries of one of Sale's semi regular away surrenders.

p/d wrote:Another one in the bag for Wuss

They're surely safe now. Irish got a losing bonus point, which is a fairly good result for them, especially considering how hard they worked to piss it away. Narraway must've kicked 8 penalties to the corner without Irish ever looking like scoring. There's being brave and there's being foolhardy. That's not to mention the two dropped try-scoring passes.

Next big game is tomorrow with Wasps vs Newcastle. I don't think anyone expects Falcons to get anything out of the game, but a big win for Wasps could be as good as an extra league point to Irish. They're 4 league points down, but about 80 points difference behind, which basically sees them needing to make up 5 unless Newcastle get thrashed.

Wasps in this form definitely have it within them to put 70-80 points on someone.

Puja

Renniks wrote:Trying to work out what's made Wuss click all of a sudden…
No winning BPs but we've won 5/6 previous games, including 2 away…

Hougaard is good, but surely not that good.

Cracking run of form to make us (pretty) safe – though I expect Exeter to show us up a bit next week

We were on the receiving end of a few rogue results earlier in the season so the wins weren't too far away.
A continuation of belief plus the stats that show we are harshly reffed will have helped mindset plus the Hougaard effect cannot be underestimated. He doesn't know how to lose and that rubs off. Jonny Arr must be thinking he's got some work to do!

Nothing for the bottom 3 sides today.

Wuss got a hiding at Exeter, Falcons got spanked at Quins and Irish lost at home to Sale.

fivepointer wrote:Nothing for the bottom 3 sides today.

Wuss got a hiding at Exeter, Falcons got spanked at Quins and Irish lost at home to Sale.

That's a good result for everyone but Irish, tbh -one game more down and nothing changing. It means Worcester are officially safe with a 16 point cushion now, so it's just down to Newcastle and Irish.

Newcastle:
H Irish
A Saracens
H Sale

Irish:
A Newcastle
H Quins
A Wasps

4 league points and 62 points difference, so barring Newcastle taking a tonking somewhere, Irish are up against it. Even if Irish win at Newcastle, they'd have to do so by >7 points to make up all 4 points and would still have to find one more bonus point than Newcastle out of the last two games. A win for Newcastle would pretty much confirm their safety, requiring Irish to get wins in both their remaining games. There is still the hope of Bedford winning the Championship play-offs though.

I wonder just how little of a sh*t Irish will give about their Challenge Cup game against Quins next week. You'd imagine they'd rest as many of their star names as the European squad limitations would allow them to.

Puja

Puja wrote:

fivepointer wrote:
There is still the hope of Bedford winning the Championship play-offs though.

Puja

Irish need to beat Newcastle........

Irish could really do without the game next week. They will surely have to rest a few players ahead of the Newcastle game. For Falcons a week off is just what the doctor ordered.

Puja wrote:4 league points and 62 points difference, so barring Newcastle taking a tonking somewhere, Irish are up against it. Even if Irish win at Newcastle, they'd have to do so by >7 points to make up all 4 points and would still have to find one more bonus point than Newcastle out of the last two games. A win for Newcastle would pretty much onfirm their safety, requiring Irish to get wins in both their remaining games.

First tie breaker is wins not points difference, so 4-0 or 5-1 match points for Irish in a fortnight would get them above Falcons.

I'll be quite surprised if they manage to get that as an outcome though and it would be an odd set of results to outscore Newcastle in the last two games.

Guwuffle wrote:

Puja wrote:4 league points and 62 points difference, so barring Newcastle taking a tonking somewhere, Irish are up against it. Even if Irish win at Newcastle, they'd have to do so by >7 points to make up all 4 points and would still have to find one more bonus point than Newcastle out of the last two games. A win for Newcastle would pretty much onfirm their safety, requiring Irish to get wins in both their remaining games.

First tie breaker is wins not points difference, so 4-0 or 5-1 match points for Irish in a fortnight would get them above Falcons.

I'll be quite surprised if they manage to get that as an outcome though and it would be an odd set of results to outscore Newcastle in the last two games.

Huh. I hadn't realised that - that changes the complexion quite a bit.

Puja

Yeah, basically, LIris vs Newcastle is winner-takes-all. I can't really see either team getting a bonus point after that.

I think Quins will have a strong side out in the penultimate game, and Sarries would likely be too strong with a 2nd XV out. But what Sale and Wasps might be inclined to put out Vs their strongest sides in the last round I don't know, they could very well be resting anyone with a niggle.

Digby wrote:I think Quins will have a strong side out in the penultimate game, and Sarries would likely be too strong with a 2nd XV out. But what Sale and Wasps might be inclined to put out Vs their strongest sides in the last round I don't know, they could very well be resting anyone with a niggle.

Depending on how other results go, Sale could still be playing for 6th, with Wasps having a shot at a home play off semi final. Can't see either side wanting to go out without a last win.

If Wasps are stranded in 3rd then I would suppose there might be some requests from England for their EPS players to get a week off.