RugbyRebels

I think 17 tests is still quite a long time, with 3 campaigns plus the 3 month pre World Cup camp.

In terms of guaranteed starters and units, seems pretty clear to me that Jones’ starting pack has Genge, LCD, Sinckler, Itoje, Curry and Lawes in it. I’d say there’s an established depth chart in most positions up front, although room for a Barbeary, Willis (x2), Chessum etc to push through.

Back line is obviously a lot more messy, although Eddie is obviously pushing Smith and Steward hard, and if fit Eddie’s picking Manu, Watson and Farrell in the XV.

I think the match-day 23 is pretty close to writing itself - depending on injury returnees.

LHP: Marler & Genge
HK: LCD & George
THP: Sinckler & Stuart
LK: Itoje, Hill & Launchbury/Ewels
BR: Lawes, Curry, Underhill & Dombrandt/Vunipola

SH: Youngs & Randall
FH: Smith/Ford
CE: Farrell, Tuilagi & Slade
Back3: Watson, Steward & Malins

3 positions where you pick one from 2 to be in the 23, but the other will almost certainly be in the wider squad. Otherwise, pretty much all of the claimed indecision is about who starts Vs who benches, or is enforced by injury.

But it's assuming fitness and reasonable form, and may well apchange if a bolter is found, maybe Barbeary taking to international 8 shirt like a duck to water, a return for Cokanasiga, or a THP ousting Stuart etc - but then, that's as it should be.

Which Tyler wrote:I think the match-day 23 is pretty close to writing itself - depending on injury returnees.

LBP: Marler & Genge
HK: LCD & George
THP: Sinckler & Stuart
LK: Itoje, Hill & Launchbury/Ewels
BR: Lawes, Curry, Underhill & Dombrandt/Vunipola

SH: Youngs & Randall
FH: Smith/Ford
CE: Farrell, Tuilagi & Slade
Back3: Watson, Steward & Malins

3 positions where you pick one from 2 to be in the 23, but the other will almost certainly be in the wider squad. Otherwise, pretty much all of the claimed indecision is about who starts Vs who benches, or is enforced by injury.

But it's assuming fitness and reasonable form, and may well apchange if a bolter is found, maybe Barbeary taking to international 8 shirt like a duck to water, a return for Cokanasiga, or a THP ousting Stuart etc - but then, that's as it should be.

Isn't LCD crocked for the rest of the season? If so, it'll be Blamire or Dolly wearing 16.

This season, not next

Which Tyler wrote:I think the match-day 23 is pretty close to writing itself - depending on injury returnees.

LBP: Marler & Genge
HK: LCD & George
THP: Sinckler & Stuart
LK: Itoje, Hill & Launchbury/Ewels
BR: Lawes, Curry, Underhill & Dombrandt/Vunipola

SH: Youngs & Randall
FH: Smith/Ford
CE: Farrell, Tuilagi & Slade
Back3: Watson, Steward & Malins

3 positions where you pick one from 2 to be in the 23, but the other will almost certainly be in the wider squad. Otherwise, pretty much all of the claimed indecision is about who starts Vs who benches, or is enforced by injury.

But it's assuming fitness and reasonable form, and may well apchange if a bolter is found, maybe Barbeary taking to international 8 shirt like a duck to water, a return for Cokanasiga, or a THP ousting Stuart etc - but then, that's as it should be.

This is the match day 23 for say a key world cup game?

I don't think Malins is anywhere near an automatic pick ahead of May, Nowell or Daly but that seems about right doesn't it? There's a reasonable chance (imo) Jones reverts back to both Vunipolas and doesn't persist with Dombrandt/Randall/Smith but are you suggesting that is so far off?

I can't think what other realistic options there are, other than a Wasps backrow forcing their way in or Esterhuizen becoming English.

Agreed. Very early days for Jack Willis, but even if he’s 80% as good as he was pre-injury, he’d be in my 23.

Banquo wrote:This is the match day 23 for say a key world cup game?

Eddie's, yes.

And of that 23/26, Malins is the only one I wouldn't be confident of; but I think he's up against Nowell, and currently in pole position between the 2 of them.
JWillis would have a thing or two to say as well, as could Cokanasiga - but for both, I'm waiting to see how they come back from their injuries first (Watson I'm putting in anyway, as he's come back from bad injuries before - and came back better! If he doesn't though, May probably takes that slot).
Stuart's vulnerable to a bolter, I guess, but currently, there's no-one threatening his spot on the bench, and it'd take 2 bolters to push him out of the 32-man squad.

Beyond that, 3rd choice front row is up for grabs, but I'd pencil Mako in at LHP, add another back rower (1 of Barbeary / Willis).
In the backs, I'd expect 1 more SH (I REALLY hope Eddie's learned that you need 3 of them in a RWC squad) - hopefully Quirke, possibly Mitchell, but whoever, they're likely to be 3rd choice; and a centre-come-winger - so Marchant or a bolter.
That gives 31 of the RWC 32 man squad, and that last berth is too dependant on what balance he wants; might want an 8th back 5 player, might want a 5th lock, or a 7th backrower (which would be my choice, with Barbeary & Willis added to the 19 forwards above).

It’s interesting looking back to this time in the last cycle;

George had just started his first game for England,
Sinckler has started 1 or 2 tests,
Tom Curry and Underhill were very much fringe players
Wilson was out the squad
Billy had only played 2 tests in 18 months
Manu hadn’t started for 4 years
Brown was still 1st choice fullback
Hartley was captain
Robshaw was first choice 7
Care 2nd choice 9

Francis, Ludlam, Cokanasiga and Heinz were nowhere.

So either we’re much closer to having the World Cup squad in place this time, or there’s lots of unforeseen changes to come.

Mikey Brown wrote:I don't think Malins is anywhere near an automatic pick ahead of May, Nowell or Daly but that seems about right doesn't it? There's a reasonable chance (imo) Jones reverts back to both Vunipolas and doesn't persist with Dombrandt/Randall/Smith but are you suggesting that is so far off?

I can't think what other realistic options there are, other than a Wasps backrow forcing their way in or Esterhuizen becoming English.

wasnt questioning the names, just clarifying context.

I have been saying for ages that Eddie isn't missing much in squad selection. That said, the backs selection especially does not cheer me up. I would also think Daly would be around the 23, but its kind of peripheral to my concerns.

And yet it still feels underwhelming. Probably performance related rather than player.

I blame Robshaw

p/d wrote:And yet it still feels underwhelming. Probably performance related rather than player.

I blame Robshaw

yes, maybe, not entirely and I blame Burgess

p/d wrote:No more locks in the back row. Build the holy trinity, and it starts now. Underhill, Curry and Barbeary. Let them loose and then start bringing in the Willis boys as back up. Come the WC no one will like playing against us cheating b*stards. And that’s how it should be

Give it a few months and it will blindingly obv that it’s Curry, Willis and Willis, with Barbeary on the bench. That requires a lot to go right for Jack, a huge chunk of optimism taken obvs.

p/d wrote:And yet it still feels underwhelming. Probably performance related rather than player.

I blame Robshaw

Matt?

p/d wrote:And yet it still feels underwhelming. Probably performance related rather than player.

I blame Robshaw

I think having several options for most positions is hardly surprising with our player base and the standard of our club competition. Beyond that, I'd hope by now to see the seeds of exciting combinations with settled units and the team as a whole fully organised in a clear style of play (albeit with the occasional change or two).

It's all very well having options but to still be chopping and changing more in hope than inspiration is somewhat underwhelming. We scored one lucky try against Wales at home. As a measure of progress that is grim. Let's hope for more on Saturday - though I doubt the bookies are predicting it.

Going back to somebody’s earlier point about the personnel changes around this time before the previous World Cup- though I think most of the changes came in the summer/autumn of 2018 rather than the 6 nations - are we just in a similar phase of Eddie faffing?

It looked pretty dire for a while, but largely came through by World Cup time, though we were maybe (understandably) too focussed on the New Zealand.

I wonder how seriously he is really taking this ‘trial semi and final’ in the next two weeks. Does it make sense to be talking that way at the same time as talking about being a side in transition? Will this make or break the futures of some players or strategies?

It’s a shame if Dombrandt is out as he was one who was really looking to show if he’s a serious option at this level right now, but equally it would be good to know if Simmonds can really cut it.

I can see more big changes in the rest of the year either way.

Mikey Brown wrote:Going back to somebody’s earlier point about the personnel changes around this time before the previous World Cup- though I think most of the changes came in the summer/autumn of 2018 rather than the 6 nations - are we just in a similar phase of Eddie faffing?

It looked pretty dire for a while, but largely came through by World Cup time, though we were maybe (understandably) too focussed on the New Zealand.

I wonder how seriously he is really taking this ‘trial semi and final’ in the next two weeks. Does it make sense to be talking that way at the same time as talking about being a side in transition? Will this make or break the futures of some players or strategies?

It’s a shame if Dombrandt is out as he was one who was really looking to show if he’s a serious option at this level right now, but equally it would be good to know if Simmonds can really cut it.

I can see more big changes in the rest of the year either way.

Do you mean in style or personnel? Earlier in the thread you seemed to be saying that the squad looked pretty settled goiing forward.

Much talk about players, but how ‘settled’ was our coaching staff this period before last WC?

Interesting having a look at our results this time 4 years ago.
In the 2018 6N's we won 2 and lost 3. Lost 1-2 to SA in the summer. Won 3 out of 4 in the autumn, SA, Japan and Aus. Losing to NZ.
In 2019 we won 3 6N games, lost 1 and drew one.
We won 3 out of the 4 warm up games.
So we were hardly sweeping all before us 18 months out from the WC.

I think the immediate issue is for a settled starting XV to emerge over the next few games. Forwards are mostly there, but the backs need to see some consistent selection.

Mellsblue wrote:

p/d wrote:And yet it still feels underwhelming. Probably performance related rather than player.

I blame Robshaw

Matt?

Code breaker

Banquo wrote:

Mikey Brown wrote:Going back to somebody’s earlier point about the personnel changes around this time before the previous World Cup- though I think most of the changes came in the summer/autumn of 2018 rather than the 6 nations - are we just in a similar phase of Eddie faffing?

It looked pretty dire for a while, but largely came through by World Cup time, though we were maybe (understandably) too focussed on the New Zealand.

I wonder how seriously he is really taking this ‘trial semi and final’ in the next two weeks. Does it make sense to be talking that way at the same time as talking about being a side in transition? Will this make or break the futures of some players or strategies?

It’s a shame if Dombrandt is out as he was one who was really looking to show if he’s a serious option at this level right now, but equally it would be good to know if Simmonds can really cut it.

I can see more big changes in the rest of the year either way.

Do you mean in style or personnel? Earlier in the thread you seemed to be saying that the squad looked pretty settled goiing forward.

Both, potentially. I don't think this squad looks massively settled, but the vision of the rough RWC squad is there or thereabouts. I'd expect some more experienced guys either returning from injury/exclusion to make it look a little more familiar in the next year. I'm not sure how convinced he really is of the style we've adopted, but it's probably too early to tell. I imagine we'll see similar-ish in the summer, but hopefully a progression.

Can't recall what our Autumn fixtures look like, but it wouldn't surprise me if Jones wanted to be able to revert to previous players or tactics at that point after having a look at some alternatives in the last 6 months or so. I think that may have been his plan to some degree with George, Ford, Daly but injuries forced his hand. Maybe he's completely serious about this 'new England thing' but my sense was guys like Blamire, Dombrandt, Randall, Smith are being given a chance but not yet the true owners of their shirts. Steward for example though has looked the part right away, so it's good he's looking at other options.

Mikey Brown wrote:I wonder how seriously he is really taking this ‘trial semi and final’ in the next two weeks. Does it make sense to be talking that way at the same time as talking about being a side in transition? Will this make or break the futures of some players or strategies?

Wait, is Dors Eddie now?
There's a fortune to be made for the right psychologist there!

Pretty sure it was a full year ago where Eddie was saying that, and now it's mostly Dors

Given that, IMO, we know 20 of our first choice 23, with 3 remaining 50:50 choices, I disagree that we're a side in transition. I think we're a side who's finished that, who knows our preferred units (which includes the bench spots), and will start putting strategies and game-plans in place.

Compared with pre-2019 RWC, are we really that settled? Then, we were always going to have Billy V, Youngs, Ford, Farrell at our core. Now, we might or might not, for example. If we go back to that because Randall, Smith, Dombrandt etc. don't fully cut it, will the old guard really do any better than last time?

We are just fans looking for hope obviously. I think it's a reasonable observation to suggest that there is hell of a distance to go between that performance against Wales and one that is seriously competitive at the RWC.

Which Tyler wrote:

Mikey Brown wrote:I wonder how seriously he is really taking this ‘trial semi and final’ in the next two weeks. Does it make sense to be talking that way at the same time as talking about being a side in transition? Will this make or break the futures of some players or strategies?

Wait, is Dors Eddie now?
There's a fortune to be made for the right psychologist there!

Pretty sure it was a full year ago where Eddie was saying that, and now it's mostly Dors

Given that, IMO, we know 20 of our first choice 23, with 3 remaining 50:50 choices, I disagree that we're a side in transition. I think we're a side who's finished that, who knows our preferred units (which includes the bench spots), and will start putting strategies and game-plans in place.

I'm sure I've heard that mentioned several times recently on those awful England camp videos that I keep watching for some reason.

I guess it depends how you define transition. I'd say not having "put strategies and game-plans in place" would qualify?

Maybe we know 20 of our ideal 23, but not sure they've all been fit at once, or settled on any particular way to play? I think we are still looking for upgrades in a few very key positions. Hill has only recently started to look like a decent international lock and thankfully Steward has dropped straight in at 15, prior to that I'd say question marks at 5, 8, 9, 10, 12, 15 is most of the spine of the team. Youngs will come back in and the midfield is more about shuffling players, but we're not exactly looking cohesive.

Personally get the feeling this squad has a few more new faces to come into it yet, and not just those currently on the fringe like Barbeary. Wouldn't be surprised to see a relatively experimental squad taken to Australia, much like France did last summer. We can get a bit caught up in World Cup planning but often teams come together quite late - both South Africa and England were nowhere at this point in the last cycle for example, and even in all-conquering champion sides there's often a player or two who sneak in late - Lewsey in 2003, Milner-Skudder in 2015 etc. On the flipside Ireland have been very settled going into the last couple of campaigns and come away with nothing. I reckon there's a decent amount more surgery on the team yet to come.