Brexit delayed

[Mellsblue]

There's also the other issue I'll now have Sssudio stuck in my head, the bastard

Another repercussion of Brexit that no one saw coming and probably the most important one.

[Puja]

I agree with an awful lot of this:

PHILIP COLLINS

Better to leave the EU than make a hero of Farage

philip collins

Remainers should see that letting Brexit happen may be smarter in the long run than allowing a grievance to fester


Nigel Farage was always destined to be the winner in the great Brexit fiasco. Either Britain leaves the European Union, in which case his political mission is fulfilled, or we do not, in which case his political career is revived. His best and most dangerous days might now be ahead of him. Mr Farage can and should be stopped but, alas, all the people who most want him arrested are ushering him into the spotlight. The choice is a stark one: leave the EU and cut off Farage’s supply of oxygen or carry on the campaign to remain.

If Britain does not leave the EU then Nigel Farage will be a fixture in British politics. The thwarting of the 2016 referendum will be the incarnate grievance on which his politics thrives. He has nothing else but it is all he needs. At his rally in Huddersfield this week, Mr Farage tried out a line that we are going to hear a lot. This is not even about Europe, he said. This is about democracy.

Mr Farage is pulling the populist trick at its most magical. The people have been cheated of their inheritance, he says, and I, the popular tribune, am here to confront truths that the elite can only avoid.

There is a real problem here, which is deeper than the oleaginous hail-fellow-well-met, phoney pub-soaked xenophobia of the man. The real problem is that he has hold of a nasty little germ of truth.

Of all the historic nationalisms, and all their current manifestations, English nationalism frightens me least. There is a different story to tell, on another day, of the imperial legacies of the English around the world but, domestically at least, English nationalism is a dog that can hardly bark. The European continent was convulsed and then set aflame by nationalisms during the 20th century. Britain avoided the excess and will probably do so again.


Though I loathe his mimicry of their populist methods, it is hard to envisage Mr Farage as the equivalent of the Le Pen family in France or the Brexit Party as a viable vanguard to disgrace such as the AfD in Germany or Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary. Radical nationalists are likely to do well across Europe in next week’s European elections and it will be tempting to lump Mr Farage into their pit.

Tempting but wrong. Britain is, in this case, exceptional. The threat of Mr Farage is not a prelude to politics that are truly dark. If we end up staying in the EU, I predict there won’t be riots in the streets. Anger will be expressed in the coming campaign but a lot of it will be synthetic, puffed-up, pretend anger about an issue (Europe) that, if only we can recall the times when we used to discuss other things, doesn’t matter nearly as much as everyone involved seems to think.


No, the risk of Faragism is not to be found in any invigorating passion. The risk is a vast deposit of cynicism, a boost to the popular myth that politicians are all liars and democracy yields no benefits to benighted people like us. Politics, in this reckoning, is a conspiracy against the people. Eventually, there are no winners when an idea like this gets its boots on.

There is a foolproof way of preventing this undesirable outcome and that is to leave the EU, as arranged. There is close to zero chance of this happening so all we can do is to spell out the consequences of not leaving so that we might at least proceed in plain sight. The immediate beneficiaries of upgraded cynicism are Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage. Mr Corbyn benefits because a Tory government that has failed to deliver Brexit is toast. It only had one job and it cannot do it. The Labour Party could be led by someone as hopeless as Mr Corbyn (oops, it is, apparently) and could hardly fail to win power in such circumstances.

While Mr Corbyn sets about nationalising the electricity supply, Mr Farage will be free to nurse his grievance. His case — that a solemn promise has not been redeemed — will be hard to answer. A second referendum which led to a reversal of the first would entrench the Faragist narrative of betrayal into British politics for decades to come. But if Brexit actually took place, it would end his political career. There are plenty of people who care about the EU sufficiently to say that Mr Farage cannot be allowed his victory. But let’s be clear about this — there is a choice. Leave the EU and bid farewell to Farage, and perhaps to Corbyn, or remain and see the two of them prosper. Is it worth the prize? Not for my money.

I feel I am in a category of one as someone whose view on Europe is that I would like to go back in. Leaving the EU is a mistake and, as the consequences unfold and a new generation comes to political maturity, that mistake will become plain. Nothing is for ever and Britain could seek to reverse its course once remorse has set in. Yet you can only be an advocate of going back in once you have left.

Imagine the difference in the atmosphere if, instead of launching the People’s Vote campaign, the Remain side of the argument had accepted the result and sought to make the feasible best of Brexit. Then, when the process fell into its own contradictions, the fault would unarguably have lain with the advocates, rather than the critics, of Brexit. A moment would come when, in sorrow rather than anger, it would have been possible to argue for a change of course.

Instead, we are going to have to take the unscenic detour via Faragism. Someone other than Mr Farage could express popular irritation that Britain has not left the EU, as the main party manifestos pledged, without rhetorical appeals to all that is most unforgiving and unpleasant in us. Mr Farage will not resist the temptation to be visceral, simplistic and cheap. Good leadership is about turning discontent to positive account but Mr Farage has no interest in that. He has nothing to say that is not cynical, nothing to offer that doesn’t make things worse.

It would therefore be naive to deny the political costs of remaining in the EU. By all means argue that the economic gain tips heavier on the scales than the political loss (though I disagree) but don’t pretend it’s all upside. The politics of leaving the EU have proven to be childish and divisive but they will be a monument to the wisdom of man when set beside the politics of not leaving the EU. The Brexit Party and the anti-Brexit movement are in lock-step and one will follow the other, like night after day.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bett ... -z3bb2cxlz

The problem with that is that it expects both demagogues and nationalists to be consistent and logical. Yes, not leaving the EU will empower Farage further, but he wom't go away if we leave. If we left and the magical unicorn land happened, then maybe, but if we leave and there's a recession or other privations bite, then there will be angry people and where there's angry people, there's support for the magical blame toad who can tell you why it's not your fault and why it's actually because of some other group. Mainstream politicians, perhaps, for screwing up the negotiations, or the EU citizens still in the country because we let them stay and they're still taking our jobs. Or perhaps Europe itself for being mean to us.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

Biggest surprise being the Conservatives managing to gain 1%.

[Banquo]

Biggest surprise being the Conservatives managing to gain 1%.

Change UK really have dropped the ball. Parties who support Brexit on 68% (though that assumes Labour do ).

[Sandydragon]

The Brexit party is getting a lot of attention and we can safely assume that it’s supports just want to leave the EU with no deal. Remain supporting parties are in the mid 20% and the rest don’t know.

Seems about right actually.

[Banquo]

The Brexit party is getting a lot of attention and we can safely assume that it’s supports just want to leave the EU with no deal. Remain supporting parties are in the mid 20% and the rest don’t know.

Seems about right actually.

To be clear, you are saying the total % for all Remain Parties is in the mid 20's?

[Sandydragon]

The Brexit party is getting a lot of attention and we can safely assume that it’s supports just want to leave the EU with no deal. Remain supporting parties are in the mid 20% and the rest don’t know.

Seems about right actually.

To be clear, you are saying the total % for all Remain Parties is in the mid 20's?

Greens, Lib Dem and ChangeUK together have been polling in the mid 20% range.

If the remainders could get themselves organised, they could make an impact. But it does feel like the impetus is with the betrayed Brexiteers.

[Banquo]

The Brexit party is getting a lot of attention and we can safely assume that it’s supports just want to leave the EU with no deal. Remain supporting parties are in the mid 20% and the rest don’t know.

Seems about right actually.

To be clear, you are saying the total % for all Remain Parties is in the mid 20's?

Greens, Lib Dem and ChangeUK together have been polling in the mid 20% range.

If the remainders could get themselves organised, they could make an impact. But it does feel like the impetus is with the betrayed Brexiteers.

yep and fraid so; Change UK especially have missed an open goal.

[Stom]

To be clear, you are saying the total % for all Remain Parties is in the mid 20's?

Greens, Lib Dem and ChangeUK together have been polling in the mid 20% range.

If the remainders could get themselves organised, they could make an impact. But it does feel like the impetus is with the betrayed Brexiteers.

yep and fraid so; Change UK especially have missed an open goal.

Change UK are full of unelectables. I don't think they had a goal to miss...

[Banquo]

Greens, Lib Dem and ChangeUK together have been polling in the mid 20% range.

If the remainders could get themselves organised, they could make an impact. But it does feel like the impetus is with the betrayed Brexiteers.

yep and fraid so; Change UK especially have missed an open goal.

Change UK are full of unelectables. I don't think they had a goal to miss...

that's two different points. The ground they propound to occupy is fertile (namely centre and anti-Brexit). And all were elected, and in some cases, Heidi Allen for one, Berger for another, had a bright future. The rest vary Soubry is awful, I grant you.

[Digby]

yep and fraid so; Change UK especially have missed an open goal.

Change UK are full of unelectables. I don't think they had a goal to miss...

that's two different points. The ground they propound to occupy is fertile (namely centre and anti-Brexit). And all were elected, and in some cases, Heidi Allen for one, Berger for another, had a bright future. The rest vary Soubry is awful, I grant you.

I like them as a group, most of them I'd happily vote for. Though I'm not surprised that starting with a blank piece of paper and no party structure they're for now little more than a talking shop. I'll vote for them on Thursday, and hope that whatever else happens this likely to be aborted attempt at a new party is only a first try and will not be a fair measure of the whole experience

[Stom]

Change UK are full of unelectables. I don't think they had a goal to miss...

that's two different points. The ground they propound to occupy is fertile (namely centre and anti-Brexit). And all were elected, and in some cases, Heidi Allen for one, Berger for another, had a bright future. The rest vary Soubry is awful, I grant you.

I like them as a group, most of them I'd happily vote for. Though I'm not surprised that starting with a blank piece of paper and no party structure they're for now little more than a talking shop. I'll vote for them on Thursday, and hope that whatever else happens this likely to be aborted attempt at a new party is only a first try and will not be a fair measure of the whole experience

Well, there we are. Digby's given them the kiss of death.

[Banquo]

Change UK are full of unelectables. I don't think they had a goal to miss...

that's two different points. The ground they propound to occupy is fertile (namely centre and anti-Brexit). And all were elected, and in some cases, Heidi Allen for one, Berger for another, had a bright future. The rest vary Soubry is awful, I grant you.

I like them as a group, most of them I'd happily vote for. Though I'm not surprised that starting with a blank piece of paper and no party structure they're for now little more than a talking shop. I'll vote for them on Thursday, and hope that whatever else happens this likely to be aborted attempt at a new party is only a first try and will not be a fair measure of the whole experience

Brexit Party have done better with less

[Banquo]

that's two different points. The ground they propound to occupy is fertile (namely centre and anti-Brexit). And all were elected, and in some cases, Heidi Allen for one, Berger for another, had a bright future. The rest vary Soubry is awful, I grant you.

I like them as a group, most of them I'd happily vote for. Though I'm not surprised that starting with a blank piece of paper and no party structure they're for now little more than a talking shop. I'll vote for them on Thursday, and hope that whatever else happens this likely to be aborted attempt at a new party is only a first try and will not be a fair measure of the whole experience

Well, there we are. Digby's given them the kiss of death.

[Mellsblue]

I like them as a group, most of them I'd happily vote for. Though I'm not surprised that starting with a blank piece of paper and no party structure they're for now little more than a talking shop. I'll vote for them on Thursday, and hope that whatever else happens this likely to be aborted attempt at a new party is only a first try and will not be a fair measure of the whole experience

Well, there we are. Digby's given them the kiss of death.

First Kvesic, now Change UK.

[Banquo]

Well, there we are. Digby's given them the kiss of death.

First Kvesic, now Change UK.

Steffon before that.

[Digby]

that's two different points. The ground they propound to occupy is fertile (namely centre and anti-Brexit). And all were elected, and in some cases, Heidi Allen for one, Berger for another, had a bright future. The rest vary Soubry is awful, I grant you.

I like them as a group, most of them I'd happily vote for. Though I'm not surprised that starting with a blank piece of paper and no party structure they're for now little more than a talking shop. I'll vote for them on Thursday, and hope that whatever else happens this likely to be aborted attempt at a new party is only a first try and will not be a fair measure of the whole experience

Brexit Party have done better with less

Difference being Nigel is making no attempt at delivering a coherent narrative that delivers a comprehensive plan of governance, indeed Nigel is famously saying he's not going to even try and put forward a manifesto ahead of the election

It's quite possible if all Change UK had done was speak as a voice against Brexit with no wider narrative they'd currently be polling better, but they're trying to do something more. And yes currently failing, which at this stage neither surprises nor depresses me

[Digby]

First Kvesic, now Change UK.

Steffon before that.

JSD, Cipriani, Wade...

At least with the rugby my side has sometimes won, that's never happened in an election

[Banquo]

I like them as a group, most of them I'd happily vote for. Though I'm not surprised that starting with a blank piece of paper and no party structure they're for now little more than a talking shop. I'll vote for them on Thursday, and hope that whatever else happens this likely to be aborted attempt at a new party is only a first try and will not be a fair measure of the whole experience

Brexit Party have done better with less

Difference being Nigel is making no attempt at delivering a coherent narrative that delivers a comprehensive plan of governance, indeed Nigel is famously saying he's not going to even try and put forward a manifesto ahead of the election

It's quite possible if all Change UK had done was speak as a voice against Brexit with no wider narrative they'd currently be polling better, but they're trying to do something more. And yes currently failing, which at this stage neither surprises nor depresses me

I've heard literally zip on a wider narrative, more a lot of apologies for gaffes and poorly selected candidates, which does depress me, as I thought they might be a contender- hence my missing an open goal point. They've misread the zeitgeist imo.

[Sandydragon]

ChangeUK have spent too much time trying to got the Is and cross the Ts. Farage just starts ranting and gets further quicker. It’s a period of time where populists have an advantage and trying to be balanced and sensible is just boring.

[Digby]

Brexit Party have done better with less

Difference being Nigel is making no attempt at delivering a coherent narrative that delivers a comprehensive plan of governance, indeed Nigel is famously saying he's not going to even try and put forward a manifesto ahead of the election

It's quite possible if all Change UK had done was speak as a voice against Brexit with no wider narrative they'd currently be polling better, but they're trying to do something more. And yes currently failing, which at this stage neither surprises nor depresses me

I've heard literally zip on a wider narrative, more a lot of apologies for gaffes and poorly selected candidates, which does depress me, as I thought they might be a contender- hence my missing an open goal point. They've misread the zeitgeist imo.

They can't agree on what the bigger picture should look like, so unless they want to voice 15 different answers they've little to say. I'm frustrated they haven't achieved more, but it's problematic even before they've some very different political views outside Brexit

I'll vote for them, and probably bung them some more money as I want to provide encouragement there's ongoing support for someone to lobby for the centre ground even if this group fails. And we've never more looked like the big two parties are so unsuitable for government and may even fail themselves. If this continues to fail, then such is life

[Banquo]

ChangeUK have spent too much time trying to got the Is and cross the Ts. Farage just starts ranting and gets further quicker. It’s a period of time where populists have an advantage and trying to be balanced and sensible is just boring.

hence 'they've misread the zeitgeist'.

[Banquo]

Difference being Nigel is making no attempt at delivering a coherent narrative that delivers a comprehensive plan of governance, indeed Nigel is famously saying he's not going to even try and put forward a manifesto ahead of the election

It's quite possible if all Change UK had done was speak as a voice against Brexit with no wider narrative they'd currently be polling better, but they're trying to do something more. And yes currently failing, which at this stage neither surprises nor depresses me

I've heard literally zip on a wider narrative, more a lot of apologies for gaffes and poorly selected candidates, which does depress me, as I thought they might be a contender- hence my missing an open goal point. They've misread the zeitgeist imo.

They can't agree on what the bigger picture should look like, so unless they want to voice 15 different answers they've little to say. I'm frustrated they haven't achieved more, but it's problematic even before they've some very different political views outside Brexit

I'll vote for them, and probably bung them some more money as I want to provide encouragement there's ongoing support for someone to lobby for the centre ground even if this group fails. And we've never more looked like the big two parties are so unsuitable for government and may even fail themselves. If this continues to fail, then such is life

How encouraging. They are in danger of ending before they have begun.

[Mellsblue]

I like to think I follow politics pretty closely, but beyond wanting a second ref I’ve no idea what they stand for. Other than standing for a new style of politics - which seems to mean being disorganised and having a confused hierarchy. If they believe the second ref is such a popular policy then why not just run on that for now. It is an EU election after all. Let’s face it, it’s the only common political belief between them all.

[Digby]

What do any of them stand for? Do Labour stand for a free market, regulated or otherwise? The Tories are no longer the party of business, nor law and order, nor the military. I think it's a perfectly reasonable point they could for now be a single issue party, but I've also no problem with them trying to establish a platform across the board somewhere in the middle, even if I think the effort highly unlikely to succeed, it took long enough just to get some people willing to walk away from their previous party structures, and tbh I don't know if I'd have wanted them to achieve Macron like success as I don't know how sustainable that is, watching them flounder has its positives