RugbyRebels

Mellsblue wrote:I like to think I follow politics pretty closely, but beyond wanting a second ref I’ve no idea what they stand for. Other than standing for a new style of politics - which seems to mean being disorganised and having a confused hierarchy. If they believe the second ref is such a popular policy then why not just run on that for now. It is an EU election after all. Let’s face it, it’s the only common political belief between them all.

After the initial fanfare, they have been underwhelming. A clear policy of a second referendum would have got them notice. As Farage demonstrates, you don’t need detail in this debate, just a key message that you continually trumpet.

Conditions have changed, we need a second referendum. Rinse, repeat, etc.

And they've gone and made such an impact on the polls, that they look increasingly like a wasted vote. I still don't know why most of them decided to form their own party, rather the join the Lib Dems.

I've mostly been looking at polling figures for the SW, but I haven't noticed CHUK getting close to the 10% or so needed to be challenging for an actual seat in the European Parliament. The breakdown here is something like 42% Brexit; 20% Lib Dem; 12% Green; 9% Con; 9% Lab; 4%; CHUK; 2% UKIP

Which, if my maths, and understanding of the d'Hondt system is correct (big ifs) gives Brexit 3 firm seats, Lib Dem 1 firm seat, Green 1 fairly-firm seat and then a real fight betwen Brexit and LD for the 6th and final seat (Con and Lab may also come into play, but look like they're losing ground each week, not gaining) - currently going to Brexit by 0.5% - less than the margin of error for any poll.
If CHUK called it quits, and handed their share to Lib Dem, or even 50:50 to each; then we'd get 3 seats pro-EU and 3 seats anti-EU.

Personally, I'm just hoping for nice weather on Thursday; as I think a higher turnout will be better for remainers - the leavers will pretty much vote anyway, as they tend to feel stronger about it, and also favour the older demographics who are more reliable to vote.

When they first launched I think they peaked at 12%. It has been a slow road downhill ever since.

PC overtake Lab for the first time ever. Parties looking to break up a union at 57%.

Which Tyler wrote:And they've gone and made such an impact on the polls, that they look increasingly like a wasted vote. I still don't know why most of them decided to form their own party, rather the join the Lib Dems.

I've mostly been looking at polling figures for the SW, but I haven't noticed CHUK getting close to the 10% or so needed to be challenging for an actual seat in the European Parliament. The breakdown here is something like 42% Brexit; 20% Lib Dem; 12% Green; 9% Con; 9% Lab; 4%; CHUK; 2% UKIP

Which, if my maths, and understanding of the d'Hondt system is correct (big ifs) gives Brexit 3 firm seats, Lib Dem 1 firm seat, Green 1 fairly-firm seat and then a real fight betwen Brexit and LD for the 6th and final seat (Con and Lab may also come into play, but look like they're losing ground each week, not gaining) - currently going to Brexit by 0.5% - less than the margin of error for any poll.
If CHUK called it quits, and handed their share to Lib Dem, or even 50:50 to each; then we'd get 3 seats pro-EU and 3 seats anti-EU.

Personally, I'm just hoping for nice weather on Thursday; as I think a higher turnout will be better for remainers - the leavers will pretty much vote anyway, as they tend to feel stronger about it, and also favour the older demographics who are more reliable to vote.

I like the concept of ChangeUK but to be honest I’ll probably vote Lib Dem in protest of Brexit to make sure my vote has some meaning.

It also bugs me a lot that remainders can’t summon up some passion for the cause. I get that most (myself included) have little love for closer European integration and federalism, but we seem very keen to cede the emotion to Brexiteers and rely on facts which people either don’t give a shit about it which might not happen.

Sandydragon wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:And they've gone and made such an impact on the polls, that they look increasingly like a wasted vote. I still don't know why most of them decided to form their own party, rather the join the Lib Dems.

I've mostly been looking at polling figures for the SW, but I haven't noticed CHUK getting close to the 10% or so needed to be challenging for an actual seat in the European Parliament. The breakdown here is something like 42% Brexit; 20% Lib Dem; 12% Green; 9% Con; 9% Lab; 4%; CHUK; 2% UKIP

Which, if my maths, and understanding of the d'Hondt system is correct (big ifs) gives Brexit 3 firm seats, Lib Dem 1 firm seat, Green 1 fairly-firm seat and then a real fight betwen Brexit and LD for the 6th and final seat (Con and Lab may also come into play, but look like they're losing ground each week, not gaining) - currently going to Brexit by 0.5% - less than the margin of error for any poll.
If CHUK called it quits, and handed their share to Lib Dem, or even 50:50 to each; then we'd get 3 seats pro-EU and 3 seats anti-EU.

Personally, I'm just hoping for nice weather on Thursday; as I think a higher turnout will be better for remainers - the leavers will pretty much vote anyway, as they tend to feel stronger about it, and also favour the older demographics who are more reliable to vote.

I like the concept of ChangeUK but to be honest I’ll probably vote Lib Dem in protest of Brexit to make sure my vote has some meaning.

It also bugs me a lot that remainders can’t summon up some passion for the cause. I get that most (myself included) have little love for closer European integration and federalism, but we seem very keen to cede the emotion to Brexiteers and rely on facts which people either don’t give a shit about it which might not happen.

The press have been very clever in their coverage to ensure this happens.

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:And they've gone and made such an impact on the polls, that they look increasingly like a wasted vote. I still don't know why most of them decided to form their own party, rather the join the Lib Dems.

I've mostly been looking at polling figures for the SW, but I haven't noticed CHUK getting close to the 10% or so needed to be challenging for an actual seat in the European Parliament. The breakdown here is something like 42% Brexit; 20% Lib Dem; 12% Green; 9% Con; 9% Lab; 4%; CHUK; 2% UKIP

Which, if my maths, and understanding of the d'Hondt system is correct (big ifs) gives Brexit 3 firm seats, Lib Dem 1 firm seat, Green 1 fairly-firm seat and then a real fight betwen Brexit and LD for the 6th and final seat (Con and Lab may also come into play, but look like they're losing ground each week, not gaining) - currently going to Brexit by 0.5% - less than the margin of error for any poll.
If CHUK called it quits, and handed their share to Lib Dem, or even 50:50 to each; then we'd get 3 seats pro-EU and 3 seats anti-EU.

Personally, I'm just hoping for nice weather on Thursday; as I think a higher turnout will be better for remainers - the leavers will pretty much vote anyway, as they tend to feel stronger about it, and also favour the older demographics who are more reliable to vote.

I like the concept of ChangeUK but to be honest I’ll probably vote Lib Dem in protest of Brexit to make sure my vote has some meaning.

It also bugs me a lot that remainders can’t summon up some passion for the cause. I get that most (myself included) have little love for closer European integration and federalism, but we seem very keen to cede the emotion to Brexiteers and rely on facts which people either don’t give a shit about it which might not happen.

The press have been very clever in their coverage to ensure this happens.

????????

Do you mean the anti-EU media and their calls to patriotism?

So, the latest WAB includes provision for parliament to set overall negotiating strategy in post WA talks, provision for a second ref if parliament wishes, provision for a permanent CU if parliament wishes, no divergence between NI and the rest of the UK unless NI wishes, as well as handcuffing the UK to EU law on workers’ rights, the environment and agri food.
Sounds like there is something there for everyone and, yet, still no consensus, it seems.

No surprises. BP taking from Cons. LD and Gr taking from Lab.

Jesus. No policies over and above "dirty foreigners", and they are the most likely to be voted for?

You are fucked.

We may be...

https://capx.co/british-politics-is-bro ... lot-worse/

"Just what will give and at what price remains something to be determined but I’d suggest that if you think this is as dark as it can get you risk seeming a cock-eyed optimist. There is a storm brewing and I suspect this is just the start of it"

This is another good piece - https://news.sky.com/story/trumpism-is- ... e-11714025

Are there polls for voting intentions were this a GE tomorrow?

Nice to know we've cocked up sending out the overseas postal votes by using someone who said they could get the job done cheaper than Royal Mail, this from the same crowd who want to bring in voter ID to scare poor people with the supposed justification of voter fraud.

They really should keep him away from watching old footage of Hitler and Mussolini whilst out canvassing, he's far too excitable. Though yes, it's not acceptable just because it's Nige

Digby wrote:Are there polls for voting intentions were this a GE tomorrow?

Nice to know we've cocked up sending out the overseas postal votes by using someone who said they could get the job done cheaper than Royal Mail, this from the same crowd who want to bring in voter ID to scare poor people with the supposed justification of voter fraud.

The logistics are the domain of local councils, ie whoever the returning officer is....I think. I know this has Grayling written all over it but it’s not his fault...I think

morepork wrote:Jesus. No policies over and above "dirty foreigners", and they are the most likely to be voted for?

You are fucked.

No mention of immigrants during the BP campaign, at least not from official sources, as far as I’ve read. Not that this is proof of absence of racist drivers. Believe it or not, people can want to leave the EU for reasons other than racism....though I’m certain it’s a decent % behind the BP vote. There are numerous studies showing the UK is one of the European counties least worried about immigration.

fivepointer wrote:We may be...

https://capx.co/british-politics-is-bro ... lot-worse/

This is pretty much spot on.....I think...I was asked to sign up and my mobile phone didn’t have the screen size for me to say no.
Unfortunately, I think there are a few Con politicians who would make capable PMs but are burned by office. If Johnson moves back to his liberal-ish roots (yes, there is politics beyond Brexit) he stands a chance and can be a decent figurehead if they surround him with brains.
Corbyn and his front bench are mostly unelectable.
Ahhh, those glorious days of the rose garden.

Mellsblue wrote:

morepork wrote:Jesus. No policies over and above "dirty foreigners", and they are the most likely to be voted for?

You are fucked.

No mention of immigrants during the BP campaign, at least not from official sources, as far as I’ve read. Not that this is proof of absence of racist drivers. Believe it or not, people can want to leave the EU for reasons other than racism....though I’m certain it’s a decent % behind the BP vote. There are numerous studies showing the UK is one of the European counties least worried about immigration.

FFS man, just give in to it. Look at the social media cut and thrust of support and, yep, xenophobia (politely put) seems front and centre for the BP campaign attraction. It's a phenomenon throughout western countries at the moment.

Digby wrote:Are there polls for voting intentions were this a GE tomorrow?

Nice to know we've cocked up sending out the overseas postal votes by using someone who said they could get the job done cheaper than Royal Mail, this from the same crowd who want to bring in voter ID to scare poor people with the supposed justification of voter fraud.

I wonder who would gain the most from overseas voters not having a say...

Just like the GE...or the ref...

morepork wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:

morepork wrote:Jesus. No policies over and above "dirty foreigners", and they are the most likely to be voted for?

You are fucked.

No mention of immigrants during the BP campaign, at least not from official sources, as far as I’ve read. Not that this is proof of absence of racist drivers. Believe it or not, people can want to leave the EU for reasons other than racism....though I’m certain it’s a decent % behind the BP vote. There are numerous studies showing the UK is one of the European counties least worried about immigration.

FFS man, just give in to it. Look at the social media cut and thrust of support and, yep, xenophobia (politely put) seems front and centre for the BP campaign attraction. It's a phenomenon throughout western countries at the moment.

You’ve clearly not been following the BP campaign very closely. Not entirely surprising given where you live. You should know better than to rely on social media for your ‘facts’. At least you used the word “seems”, I suppose.

Stom wrote:

Digby wrote:Are there polls for voting intentions were this a GE tomorrow?

Nice to know we've cocked up sending out the overseas postal votes by using someone who said they could get the job done cheaper than Royal Mail, this from the same crowd who want to bring in voter ID to scare poor people with the supposed justification of voter fraud.

I wonder who would gain the most from overseas voters not having a say...

Just like the GE...or the ref...

My mother-in-law, who lives in France, hasn’t received her postal vote from her Lib Dem run council.....

Mellsblue wrote:

morepork wrote:

Mellsblue wrote: No mention of immigrants during the BP campaign, at least not from official sources, as far as I’ve read. Not that this is proof of absence of racist drivers. Believe it or not, people can want to leave the EU for reasons other than racism....though I’m certain it’s a decent % behind the BP vote. There are numerous studies showing the UK is one of the European counties least worried about immigration.

FFS man, just give in to it. Look at the social media cut and thrust of support and, yep, xenophobia (politely put) seems front and centre for the BP campaign attraction. It's a phenomenon throughout western countries at the moment.

You’ve clearly not been following the BP campaign very closely. Not entirely surprising given where you live. You should know better than to rely on social media for your ‘facts’. At least you used the word “seems”, I suppose.

Oh I don't, but the bot farms targeting you poor bastards know that many do.