RugbyRebels

Stom wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -final.pdf

Is that saying that under 30 you shouldn't have the vaccine and under 40 it's iffy whether you should have it or not?

Stom wrote:

Stom wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... -final.pdf

Is that saying that under 30 you shouldn't have the vaccine and under 40 it's iffy whether you should have it or not?

Oh, there's 2 other tables, that makes more sense.

Which Tyler wrote:This doesn't really fit here, but may not deserve a thread of its own.

A different Oxford vaccine is proving effective against Malaria, humanity's biggest killer. 77% effective in children!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... faso-trial

Obviously small scale trial so far - but if it can be repeated in larger trials, this is massive

Which Tyler wrote:12 year old neice is ill with Covid - severe but not hospitalising yet

Indian Covid variant calls in question 17 May reopening in UK, say experts

Highly transmissible B.1.617.2 is now second most common variant and is spreading in north-west England

The dramatic rise in UK cases of a variant first discovered in India could undermine the country’s roadmap for reopening, scientists are cautioning.

The variant, called B.1.617.2, is one of three closely related variants that were initially detected in India. Public Health England designated it a “variant of concern” on Friday, acknowledging it appears to be at least as transmissible as the dominant so-called Kent variant in the UK. It is unclear if and to what extent B.1.617.2 can reduce vaccine effectiveness.

...

Article continues​

Which Tyler wrote:Like this, you mean?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ay-experts

Indian Covid variant calls in question 17 May reopening in UK, say experts

Highly transmissible B.1.617.2 is now second most common variant and is spreading in north-west England

The dramatic rise in UK cases of a variant first discovered in India could undermine the country’s roadmap for reopening, scientists are cautioning.

The variant, called B.1.617.2, is one of three closely related variants that were initially detected in India. Public Health England designated it a “variant of concern” on Friday, acknowledging it appears to be at least as transmissible as the dominant so-called Kent variant in the UK. It is unclear if and to what extent B.1.617.2 can reduce vaccine effectiveness.

...

Article continues​

Sandydragon wrote:Boris has been quite cautious in his wording this week so I suspect if infection rates rise quickly (and if they translate into hospital admissions) then things will pause. June 21st isn’t set in stone yet.

Banquo wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Boris has been quite cautious in his wording this week so I suspect if infection rates rise quickly (and if they translate into hospital admissions) then things will pause. June 21st isn’t set in stone yet.

he said IF the variant proves to have a significant advantage to the 'kent' strain, then further measures over and above surge testing and targeted vaccination will be brought in. I'd hope they consider regional lock downs again, as well.

morepork wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Boris has been quite cautious in his wording this week so I suspect if infection rates rise quickly (and if they translate into hospital admissions) then things will pause. June 21st isn’t set in stone yet.

he said IF the variant proves to have a significant advantage to the 'kent' strain, then further measures over and above surge testing and targeted vaccination will be brought in. I'd hope they consider regional lock downs again, as well.

I'm sure a team of recent MBA graduates are all over developing an infectious titer assay to quantify that significant advantage.

Fuck me.

Banquo wrote:More likely Sage or Spi thingy. Not that I have much confidence in either to be frank. Or Boris. Or almost any politician.

Summary

1. SPI-M-O’s best estimate for R in England is between 0.8 and 1.1. R is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.0 for Scotland, 0.7 and 1.0 for Wales, and 0.8 and 1.1 for Northern Ireland. These estimates are based on the data available up to 10th May, including hospitalisations and deaths as well as symptomatic testing and prevalence studies.

2. Overall, the epidemic in England could be either flat, shrinking slowly, or growing slightly. There are local areas in all nations where the epidemic is increasing and some localities, such as parts of the North West and Bedford, have fast growth of S-gene positive variants that is concerning. This includes the B.1.617.2 variant.

3. Clusters of such new variants mean it is becoming more difficult to interpret R estimates as they are averages over populations, viral variants and areas. Situations could change quickly, especially as restrictions are relaxed further from 17th May.

4. SPI-M-O estimates that there are between 1,000 and 7,000 new infections per day in England.

5. The number and proportion of cases that are S-gene positive continues to increase and this is highly heterogeneous across regions and ethnicities. SPI-M-O is confident that B.1.617.2 is more transmissible than B.1.1.7, and it is a realistic possibility that this new variant of concern could be 50% more transmissible. If B.1.617.2 does have such a large transmission advantage, it is a realistic possibility that progressing with all Roadmap steps would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations.

6. SPI-M-O has also considered the merits of surge vaccination. While the impact of such a programme is uncertain, from a non-operational epidemiological perspective alone, it has a large potential upside and relatively small potential drawbacks with regard to transmission.

Which Tyler wrote:

Banquo wrote:More likely Sage or Spi thingy. Not that I have much confidence in either to be frank. Or Boris. Or almost any politician.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986709/S1237_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf
PI-M-O is the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (Operational) - the modelling subcommittee of SAGE

Summary

1. SPI-M-O’s best estimate for R in England is between 0.8 and 1.1. R is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.0 for Scotland, 0.7 and 1.0 for Wales, and 0.8 and 1.1 for Northern Ireland. These estimates are based on the data available up to 10th May, including hospitalisations and deaths as well as symptomatic testing and prevalence studies.

2. Overall, the epidemic in England could be either flat, shrinking slowly, or growing slightly. There are local areas in all nations where the epidemic is increasing and some localities, such as parts of the North West and Bedford, have fast growth of S-gene positive variants that is concerning. This includes the B.1.617.2 variant.

3. Clusters of such new variants mean it is becoming more difficult to interpret R estimates as they are averages over populations, viral variants and areas. Situations could change quickly, especially as restrictions are relaxed further from 17th May.

4. SPI-M-O estimates that there are between 1,000 and 7,000 new infections per day in England.

5. The number and proportion of cases that are S-gene positive continues to increase and this is highly heterogeneous across regions and ethnicities. SPI-M-O is confident that B.1.617.2 is more transmissible than B.1.1.7, and it is a realistic possibility that this new variant of concern could be 50% more transmissible. If B.1.617.2 does have such a large transmission advantage, it is a realistic possibility that progressing with all Roadmap steps would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations.

6. SPI-M-O has also considered the merits of surge vaccination. While the impact of such a programme is uncertain, from a non-operational epidemiological perspective alone, it has a large potential upside and relatively small potential drawbacks with regard to transmission.

It looks likely that the bulk of the UK's B.1.617.2 variant travelled in during the 4 days warning when everyone was rushing home to beat the quarantine requirement - which I'm sure, absolutely nobody could have predicted, especially not if they'd had access to the hindsight that the same has happened literally every single time any government has said "we'll be doing X, but in N days"