RugbyRebels

Mellsblue wrote:

Stones of granite wrote:

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:
I'd have thought that if we learned one thing last year it was to not take polling too seriously.

Some lessons, it seems, are all too easily forgotten.

Depends which polls you read. Lynton Crosby's and Vote Leave's were pretty accurate.

Stones of granite wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:

Stones of granite wrote:
Some lessons, it seems, are all too easily forgotten.

Depends which polls you read. Lynton Crosby's and Vote Leave's were pretty accurate.

Lynton Crosby had a poll? Got a link?

Mellsblue wrote:

Stones of granite wrote:

Mellsblue wrote: Depends which polls you read. Lynton Crosby's and Vote Leave's were pretty accurate.

Lynton Crosby had a poll? Got a link?

No, sorry. I'm fairly certain that he didn't make them public. He didn't work specifically for either side in the referendum but did advise friends/ex-colleagues in both camps. He was so underwhelmed by the pollster working for Stronger In that he undertook his own polls. As far as I know, Vote Leave kept there's under wraps too as they thought being the underdog was a plus.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:

Stones of granite wrote:
Lynton Crosby had a poll? Got a link?

No, sorry. I'm fairly certain that he didn't make them public. He didn't work specifically for either side in the referendum but did advise friends/ex-colleagues in both camps. He was so underwhelmed by the pollster working for Stronger In that he undertook his own polls. As far as I know, Vote Leave kept there's under wraps too as they thought being the underdog was a plus.

So the people who brought us £350 million to the NHS say they knew all along they were going to win. Aye. Sure.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:

Stones of granite wrote:
Lynton Crosby had a poll? Got a link?

No, sorry. I'm fairly certain that he didn't make them public. He didn't work specifically for either side in the referendum but did advise friends/ex-colleagues in both camps. He was so underwhelmed by the pollster working for Stronger In that he undertook his own polls. As far as I know, Vote Leave kept there's under wraps too as they thought being the underdog was a plus.

So the people who brought us £350 million to the NHS say they knew all along they were going to win. Aye. Sure.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:

Stones of granite wrote:
Lynton Crosby had a poll? Got a link?

No, sorry. I'm fairly certain that he didn't make them public. He didn't work specifically for either side in the referendum but did advise friends/ex-colleagues in both camps. He was so underwhelmed by the pollster working for Stronger In that he undertook his own polls. As far as I know, Vote Leave kept there's under wraps too as they thought being the underdog was a plus.

So the people who brought us £350 million to the NHS say they knew all along they were going to win. Aye. Sure.

Sandydragon wrote: Im pretty confident that Boris did not expect to win. A close loss with credentials secured on the Tory right would have been his dream result.

bruce wrote:See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

Stones of granite wrote:

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Donny osmond wrote:Tl;dr version

"After this week’s supreme court ruling, Sturgeon said: “Is Scotland content for our future to be dictated by an increasingly rightwing Westminster government with just one MP here, or is it better that we take our future into our own hands?” However, so far, this argument has delivered only modest returns, with 12% of no/remain voters switching their vote towards independence.

So why has this small but notable shift not moved the headline numbers? The movement among this group has been offset by a much larger swing among those who voted yes to independence in 2014 but then voted to leave the EU last year. Despite only making up 14% of Scottish voters, 43% of these leave/yes voters have since abandoned their pro-independence position, with 28% now saying they would vote to stay in the union.

The other two groups, remain/yes and leave/no, together make up approximately 37% of Scottish voters and have remained reasonably consistent in their positions on independence in the aftermath of the Brexit vote."

I'd have thought that if we learned one thing last year it was to not take polling too seriously.

Some lessons, it seems, are all too easily forgotten.

Donny osmond wrote:

Stones of granite wrote:

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:
I'd have thought that if we learned one thing last year it was to not take polling too seriously.

Some lessons, it seems, are all too easily forgotten.

2014 Indy ref polling was pretty accurate. And if we're ignoring all polls, what else do we have to look at public opinion? Dramatic headlines aren't gospel, gents.

bruce wrote:See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

Len wrote:

bruce wrote:See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

They certainly insinuated it by saying 'lets give it to tue NHS instead!' On that fucking bus.

I had a chat with an older woman whilst waiting for a train after the referendum who was very excited about the extra 350 million. Even asked me what I thought they should spend it on

morepork wrote:

Len wrote:

bruce wrote:See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

They certainly insinuated it by saying 'lets give it to tue NHS instead!' On that fucking bus.

I had a chat with an older woman whilst waiting for a train after the referendum who was very excited about the extra 350 million. Even asked me what I thought they should spend it on

Crack and sex toys.

bruce wrote:See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

Banquo wrote:

bruce wrote:See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

It was the Vote Leave bus that had the words below


But Farage denied saying it, as he wasn't part of the official Vote Leave campaign. So Johnson, Leadsom are pinned with that, as they actually are still in government.

Stones of granite wrote:

Banquo wrote:

bruce wrote:See this is what gets me, I may be wrong (often am), but I don't believe it was stated anywhere by Vote Leave that they would give £350 mill a week to the NHS.

It was the Vote Leave bus that had the words below


But Farage denied saying it, as he wasn't part of the official Vote Leave campaign. So Johnson, Leadsom are pinned with that, as they actually are still in government.

The bus was the most visible, but they also had posters and leaflets printed with the same message.


I have had people tell me that the phrasing is such that it is obviously merely a suggestion of how the money could be spent, but I have 2 problems with that.
1. The £350million figure was a lie in the first place as it gross of the rebate
2. Even if a English Language Professor can show that the phrasing doesn't guarantee that the money would be spent on the NHS, it is clearly intended to strongly suggest to the ordinary voter that that would be the intention.

Banquo wrote:

Stones of granite wrote:

Banquo wrote: It was the Vote Leave bus that had the words below


But Farage denied saying it, as he wasn't part of the official Vote Leave campaign. So Johnson, Leadsom are pinned with that, as they actually are still in government.

The bus was the most visible, but they also had posters and leaflets printed with the same message.


I have had people tell me that the phrasing is such that it is obviously merely a suggestion of how the money could be spent, but I have 2 problems with that.
1. The £350million figure was a lie in the first place as it gross of the rebate
2. Even if a English Language Professor can show that the phrasing doesn't guarantee that the money would be spent on the NHS, it is clearly intended to strongly suggest to the ordinary voter that that would be the intention.

agreed, a serious con job. Mind, Remain shared a number of made up scenarios as well.

Stones of granite wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Stones of granite wrote: The bus was the most visible, but they also had posters and leaflets printed with the same message.


I have had people tell me that the phrasing is such that it is obviously merely a suggestion of how the money could be spent, but I have 2 problems with that.
1. The £350million figure was a lie in the first place as it gross of the rebate
2. Even if a English Language Professor can show that the phrasing doesn't guarantee that the money would be spent on the NHS, it is clearly intended to strongly suggest to the ordinary voter that that would be the intention.

agreed, a serious con job. Mind, Remain shared a number of made up scenarios as well.

Yes they did. I was just as unimpressed by their campaign.

Digby wrote:And now we have May saying the Scots couldn't vote on independence as they don't know what the Brexit deal will look like, but it's okay we held the Brexit referendum when we didn't even know Brexit meant Brexit and basically that's a hard brexit which isn't remotely what an awful lot of people advocating for leave said about the single market during the referendum.

Scottish independence is actually quite interesting to me in a way it hasn't been in the past, mostly I don't care either way though I fail to see how they pay for an awful lot of stuff, but if they were to remain in the EU then that would be interesting.

Stones of granite wrote:

Digby wrote:And now we have May saying the Scots couldn't vote on independence as they don't know what the Brexit deal will look like, but it's okay we held the Brexit referendum when we didn't even know Brexit meant Brexit and basically that's a hard brexit which isn't remotely what an awful lot of people advocating for leave said about the single market during the referendum.

Scottish independence is actually quite interesting to me in a way it hasn't been in the past, mostly I don't care either way though I fail to see how they pay for an awful lot of stuff, but if they were to remain in the EU then that would be interesting.

I can't see any way that Scotland can remain in the EU now. It looks certain that any Referendum will not happen until Brexit is concluded, then it's too late to remain in. At the earliest, we would be looking at 2020 for independence, and faced with applying for membership as a new State. It's not an attractive prospect (compared with remaining).