The Incredibly Premature RWC2019 Prediction Thread

[rowan]

2/3 ain't bad.

14.04 Luxembourg Luxembourg 45-5 Finland Rugby Europe Conference 2 North
14.04 Nikšić Montenegro 0-57 Bulgaria Rugby Europe Development
14.04 Willemstad Curaçao 17-46 Dominican Republic Rugby Americas North Trophy !!

Also, Jordan beat Saudis 25-13 on Friday.

[rowan]

5 fixtures coming up over the next week, including the first round of the Asian division 3 West championship in Lebanon - which is also the semis, with the tournament concluding 3 days later with the final & 3rd-placed playoff.

21.04 Prague Czechia - Moldova Rugby Europe Trophy - Czechs by 6
21.04 Esztergom Hungary - Lithuania Rugby Europe Conference 1 North - Lithuania by 10
21.04 Piešťany Slovakia - Serbia Rugby Europe Conference 2 South - Serbia by 20
24.04 Jounieh (Lebanon) Iran - Qatar Asian Championship Division 3 (West), Semi-Final - Qatar by 12
24.04 Jounieh Lebanon - Jordan Asian Championship Division 3 (West), Semi-Final - Lebanon by 10

[rowan]

3/3 so far . . .

21.04 Prague Czechia 35-21 Moldova Rugby Europe Trophy
21.04 Esztergom Hungary 25-29 Lithuania Rugby Europe Conference 1 North
21.04 Piešťany Slovakia 24-50 Serbia Rugby Europe Conference 2 South

[rowan]

1/2 - or 4/5 for the week. Iran's win tripped me up!

24.04 Jounieh (Lebanon) Iran 17-8 Qatar Asian Championship Division 3 (West), Semi-Final
24.04 Jounieh Lebanon 62-3 Jordan Asian Championship Division 3 (West), Semi-Final

[rowan]

Things looking much busier this weekend:

27.04 Jounieh (Lebanon) Qatar - Jordan Asian Championship Division 3 (West), 3rd Place Match - Qatar by 10
27.04 Jounieh Lebanon - Iran Asian Championship Division 3 (West), Final - Lebanon by 20
28.04 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia - South Korea Asian Championship - Korea by 25
28.04 Šiauliai Lithuania - Sweden Rugby Europe Conference 1 North - Sweden by 10
28.04 Lviv Ukraine - Hungary Rugby Europe Conference 1 North - Ukraine by 24
28.04 Zagreb Croatia - Bosnia & Herzegovina Rugby Europe Conference 1 South - Croatia by 18
28.04 Odense Denmark - Estonia Rugby Europe Conference 2 North - Denmark by 18
28.04 Luxembourg Luxembourg - Norway Rugby Europe Conference 2 North - Luxembourg by 20
28.04 Belgrade Serbia - Cyprus Rugby Europe Conference 2 South - Cyprus by 15
28.04 İstanbul Turkey - Montenegro Rugby Europe Development - Turkey by 30
28.04 TBD Jamaica - Barbados Rugby Americas North Cup - Jamaica by 9

[rowan]

Off to a good start!

3rd / 4th Place: Qatar 25 - 11 Jordan

& Lebanon 29 Iran 17 in the final

[rowan]

Not quite as bad as I thought. 8/11. A few of my margins were way out, which perhaps made me think I'd done worse than I really had, but I was actually bang on with Korea (25 point win), 1 off with Luxembourg (19 point win) and 3 off with Croatia (21 point win). So not bad at all, if I do say so myself

28.04 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia 10-35 South Korea
28.04 İstanbul Turkey 13-8 Montenegro
28.04 Šiauliai Lithuania 43-22 Sweden
28.04 Lviv Ukraine 19-19 Hungary
28.04 Belgrade Serbia 35-17 Cyprus
28.04 Odense Denmark 127-5 Estonia !!
Croatia 27 Bosnia 6
Luxembourg 35 Norway 16
28.04 Bridgetown Barbados 14-60 Jamaica
27.04 Jounieh Lebanon 29-17 Iran Division 3 West, Final
27.04 Jounieh (Lebanon) Qatar 25-11 Jordan 3rd Place Match
27.04 Dubai United Arab Emirates 28-15 Gibraltar Friendly

[rowan]

This weekend:

05.05 São Paulo Brazil - Chile South American Championship Division A - Brazil by 2
05.05 Medellín Colombia - Uruguay 'B' South American Championship Division A - Uruguay by 50
05.05 Luque Paraguay - Argentina 'B' South American Championship Division A - Argentina by 50
05.05 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia - Hong Kong Asian Championship - Hong Kong by 30
05.05 TBD Latvia - Ukraine Rugby Europe Conference 1 North - Ukraine by 3
05.05 TBD Andorra - Croatia Rugby Europe Conference 1 South - Andorra by 1
05.05 TBD Bulgaria - Turkey Rugby Europe Development - Bulgaria by 10
06.05 Bandar Seri Begawan Brunei - Laos Asian Championship Division 3 (East) - Laos by 15

[rowan]

Got all the winners right so far except Andorra - Croatia, which ended in a draw (I picked the hosts by 1) !!

Laos Brunei to come. Should be kicking off shortly...

[rowan]

Got all the winners right so far except Andorra - Croatia, which ended in a draw (I picked the hosts by 1) !!

Laos Brunei to come. Should be kicking off shortly...

Oops: I should pay more attention to my own posts. I'd already announced Laos has dropped out and been replaced by China. The revamped tournament commences midweek. So I got 6/7 winners this week thwarted only by a draw for which I'd tipped a 1 point win. Some of the margins weren't too flash, but how can you guess when it's likely to be a blow-out? A

[rowan]

09.05 Elmina Ghana 57-0 Rwanda Africa Cup Bronze Cup, Semi-Final
09.05 Elmina (Ghana) Mauritius 51-13 Lesotho Africa Cup Bronze Cup, Semi-Final - Mauritius by 10
10.05 Bandar Seri Begawan (Brunei) China 12-52 Guam Asian Championship Division 3 (East) - China by 10
11.05 Les Abymes Guadeloupe 5-7 Curaçao Rugby Americas North Trophy - Guadeloupe by 6
12.05 Benavídez Argentina 'B' 33-36 Brazil South American Championship Division A - Argentina by 20
12.05 Luque Paraguay 28-26 Colombia South American Championship Division A - 09.05 - Paraguay by 15
12.05 Montevideo Uruguay 'B' 20-22 Chile South American Championship Division A - Chile by 2
12.05 Incheon South Korea 21-30 Hong Kong Asian Championship - HK by 6
12.05 Enköping Sweden 50-25 Latvia Rugby Europe Conference 1 North - Sweden by 12
12.05 Tartu Estonia 16-47 Norway Rugby Europe Conference 2 North - Norway by 9
12.05 Helsinki Finland 10-57 Denmark Rugby Europe Conference 2 North - Denmark by 16
12.05 Elmina (Ghana) Rwanda 32-22 Lesotho Africa Cup Bronze Cup, 3rd Place Match
12.05 Elmina (Ghana) Ghana 23-17 Winner Mauritius/Lesotho Africa Cup Bronze Cup, Final -
12.05 Bandar Seri Begawan Brunei 18-31 China Asian Championship Division 3 (East) - China by 20
12.05 North Shore Village Bermuda 28-48 USA South Rugby Americas North Championship - US South by 15
12.05 Kingston Jamaica 37-29 Barbados Rugby Americas North Cup - Jamaica by 20
12.05 Grace Bay Turks & Caicos Islands 63-12 British Virgin Islands Friendly - British Virgins by 10

10-4 and a correct margin for Uruguay v Chile.

[Lizard]

I'm not sure why my derailment of this thread into a RWC Qualification thread has been re-derailed into an obscure match results thread.

Time to get it back on track. With the release of the decisions around European qualifying, it's time for a review.

My original predictions, with notes:
Africa 1 = Namibia - still on track. Final qualifying tournament will take place 16 June - 18 August. Predict Namibia to win and Kenya 2nd to enter repechage.
Americas 1 = USA. - Yep.
Americas 2 = Canada. - Nope, Uruguay got it so Canada enters repechage.
Europe 1 = Romania. - Nope. Romania is out due to points deduction for fielding unqualified players. Russia is in. Germany is Europe 2, goes to playoff v Portugal on 9 June. Predict Portugal because German rugby seems a bit fucked right now.
Oceania 1 = Fiji. - Yep.
Oceania 2 = Samoa. - Nope. It was Tonga. Samoa goes to Europe/Oceania playoff
Play-off winner = Tonga. - Nope. Tonga is already qualified. Samoa will beat Portugal (or Germany - it doesn't matter which) in a 2-leg play-off on 30 June (Apia) and 14 July (Europe). The Europeamn side will go to repechage
Repechage = Uruguay. - Nope. Uruguay is already qualified. Repechage will involve Canada, Africa 2 (predict Kenya), winner of Cook Is v Asia 1 (predict Hong Kong*, and loser of Samoa v European qualifier (predict Portugal). Canada, HK and Portugal are currently ranked 21, 22, 23 respectively so on paper it's anyone's tournament. Surely though Canada's experience will see them through

If I'm right (unconfirmed sides in italics):
Pool A: Ire, Scot, Jap, Rus, Sam.
Pool B: NZ, SA, Ita, Nam, Can.
Pool C: Eng, Fra, Arg, US, Ton.
Pool D: Aus, Wal, Geo, Fij, Uru.

Pool C aside, the most interesting battles will be for the 3rd place Automatic Qualification slots.

* The last round of Asian qualifying (HK, Korea, Malaysia) is halfway through with Hong Kong undefeated and the likely winner. HK should deal to the Cooks which are ranked about 30 places lower.

[rowan]

I was told I was starting too many threads, so now I just hijack others with similar themes

To wit, this week's games (first two kick off in a few hours):

Incidentally, I believe the word Cossacks evolved from Kazakhs - a Turkic word meaning Nomads

16.05 Almaty Kazakhstan - Mongolia Asian Championship Division 3 (Central), Semi-Final - Kazakhs by 25
16.05 Almaty (Kazakhstan) Kyrgyzstan - Pakistan Asian Championship Division 3 (Central), Semi-Final - Pakistan by 25

19.05 São Paulo Brazil - Colombia South American Championship Division A - Brazil by 20
19.05 Santiago Chile - Paraguay South American Championship Division A - Chile by 10
19.05 Incheon South Korea - Malaysia Asian Championship - Korea by 30
19.05 Almaty Loser Kazakhstan/Mongolia - Loser Kyrgyzstan/Pakistan Asian Championship Division 3 (Central), Semi-Final - ?
19.05 Almaty (Kazakhstan) Winner Kazakhstan/Mongolia - Winner Kyrgyzstan/Pakistan Asian Championship Division 3 (Central), Semi-Final ?
19.05 Diego Martin Trinidad & Tobago - Bermuda Rugby Americas North Championship - T & T by 15
19.05 Šiauliai Lithuania - Malta Rugby Europe Conference 1 Final - Lithuania by 6
19.05 TBD Saint Lucia - Saint Vincent & the Grenadines Friendly - St Lucia by 3
20.05 Benavídez Argentina 'B' - Uruguay 'B' South American Championship Division A - Argentina by 10
20.05 Pattaya Thailand - India Asian Championship Division 2 - Thailand by 12

[rowan]

7/8 so far, with just the slip up in St Lucia, where St Vincent actually won by 3!

2 more games to come today . . .

[Lizard]

Seriously, I read and enjoy the global results thread, but this one should only include matches with a bearing on qualification for RWC2019

[rowan]

Ok, I do my predictions on the global results thread in future. Probably better to keep it all in one spot anyway. Sometimes threads just evolve and take on a life of their own, then suddenly you realize they've got out of control entirely. Sort of Frankenstein-like . . .

[Lizard]

Next update:

My original predictions, with notes:
Africa 1 = Namibia - still on track. Final qualifying tournament is half way through (16 June - 18 August). Namibia and Kenya are clear frontrunners, each with a clean sheet after 3 rounds. Namibia is ahead with 3 bonus points (Kenya has only one) and a huge PD (223) with an average result of 79-4.
Americas 1 = USA. - Yep.
Americas 2 = Canada. - Nope, Uruguay got it so Canada enters repechage.
Europe 1 = Romania. - Nope. Romania is out due to points deduction for fielding unqualified players. Russia is in. Germany was Europe 2, and won playoff v Portugal on 9 June (contrary to my prediction).
Oceania 1 = Fiji. - Yep.
Oceania 2 = Samoa. - Nope. It was Tonga. Samoa goes to Europe/Oceania playoff
Play-off winner = Tonga. - Nope. Tonga is already qualified. Samoa is half-way through beating Germany in a 2-leg play-off (last leg is on 14 July. Samoa will qualify and Germany will go to the repechage
Repechage = Uruguay. - Nope. Uruguay is already qualified. Repechage will involve Canada, Africa 2 (predict Kenya), Hong Kong (as predicted, HK was Asia 1 and easily dealt with Cook IS. in the Asia/Oceania play-off) and Germany. HK (21) is now unbelievably ranked ahead of Canada (22). Kenya (28) and Germany (29) are are lower ranked. I previously thought Canada's experience would see them through but I'm now no sure there is any depth they cannot plumb.

So the pools are perhaps less clear than my last update (unconfirmed sides in italics):
Pool A: Ire, Scot, Jap, Rus, Sam.
Pool B: NZ, SA, Ita, Nam, Can/HK.
Pool C: Eng, Fra, Arg, US, Ton.
Pool D: Aus, Wal, Geo, Fij, Uru.

By current rankings:
A: 2, 7, 11, 17, 19
B: 1, 6, 14, 21/22, 23
C: 4, 8, 10, 12, 15
D: 3, 5, 9, 13, 18

If the participants are banded by ranking, they are allocated as follows:
1st-4th: 1 per pool
5th-8th: 1 per pool
9th-12th: 1 each in A and D, 2 in C, none in B
13-17th*: 1 in each pool
18th-23rd*: 1 each in pools A and D, 2 in B and none in C.

This is not to far off being fair. Switch Tonga/US for HK/Canada/Namibia and you'd have yourself a fairly balanced draw.

*Romania (16) and Spain (20) did not qualify, whether HK or Spain qualifies will not change the banding

[rowan]

Kenya won't get close to Namibia in Windhoek, but they're virtually assured of the second spot, which will take them to the repechages. Mathematically the only team that could still head them off is Tunisia, who lost 118--0 to Namibia but bounced back with a narrow home win over the struggling Sables yesterday. So unless the North Africans can remain unbeaten for the rest of the competition (about as likely as Kenya beating Namibia on the road), the Simbas will be heading to the repechage - and I wouldn't discount their chances there. I think it'll be a tight contest, but Canada must start favorite, Hong Kong would be 2nd, Germany 3rd and Kenya 4th.

[rowan]

T'would certainly be nice to see Hong Kong competing at a World Cup in Japan. Aside from the fact they would become just the second Asian side to participate after 9 tournaments, it would mean a debutante at the tournament for the first time since 2011, and for just the 4th time since expansion in 99. Of course, it would be great to see anyone but Canada win the repechage. This would mean two changes to the 2015 lineup, whereas the last installment featured just one from 2011. Regrettably it seems rugby's pecking order is incredibly stagnant - even at second and third tier level. Japan will always win Asia, while the days of Korea challenging Hong Kong for second appear long gone. & there's no one else in the picture. Namibia's standing as the number 2 team in Africa has become more and more clear-cut, undoubtedly due to their involvement in SA domestic comp. Kenya invariably shapes up as number 3, and only after that does it become a bit of a lottery. Similarly, Uruguay has long been the number 2 team in South America, and while Brazil seems to have pushed aside Chile for the number 3 spot, they have a way to go to overtake Los Teros. In North America the US and Canada have swapped positions, but beyond that there's nothing but daylight. & in Europe it's still Georgia top, Romania 2nd (despite their disqualification from next year's World Cup), and a battle between Russia and Spain for 3rd. Basically if you had looked at the international pecking order a few decades ago it would have been pretty much the same (minus the Lelos, of course).

[Lizard]

Next update:

My original predictions, with notes:
Africa 1 = Namibia - Correct
Americas 1 = USA - Correct
Americas 2 = Canada - Wrong. Uruguay got it. Canada enters repechage.
Europe 1 = Romania - Wrong. Russia got it. Romania out due to points deduction for fielding unqualified players. Germany was Europe 2, and won playoff v Portugal on 9 June (contrary to my prediction).
Oceania 1 = Fiji - Correct.
Oceania 2 = Samoa - Wrong. It was Tonga. Samoa bet Germany in the play-off to qualify.
Play-off winner = Tonga - Wrong. Samoa went into the play-off instead of Tonga, but I was right that the PI side would win.
Repechage = Uruguay - Wrong. Uruguay is already qualified. Repechage will involve Canada, Kenya (as predicted), Hong Kong (as predicted) and Germany. HK (21) has increased its rankings lead over Canada (23). Kenya (28) and Germany (29) are are still lower ranked. Surely Canada can lift themselves to get through/

So the pools are nearly settled (unconfirmed sides in italics):
Pool A: Ire, Scot, Jap, Rus, Sam.
Pool B: NZ, SA, Ita, Nam, Can/HK/Ken/Ger.
Pool C: Eng, Fra, Arg, US, Ton.
Pool D: Aus, Wal, Geo, Fij, Uru.

[Lizard]

And revisiting original predictions (from May last year) for the actual tournament...

Pool A
Ireland will go through undefeated, but Scotland will be better than I previously thought only losing the one match (its first). Japan and Samoa will scrap it out for third place, meeting in the third round, after both have beaten Russia and lost respectively to Ireland and Scotland. Samoa are in a right state at the moment, on and off the field, so I'm picking the home team to prevail. Russia will be winless.

Pool B
NZ will look very shaky against SA, but prevail and go on to retain their record of 0 pool games lost. SA will win all their other games. Italy will run away a bit against Namibia and the repechage winner (Canada?) before facing the Boks and Blacks only 4 days apart with predictable results. The final pool match will be the deadest of dead rubbers, Namibia v Repechage winner. Surely Canada, as terrible as they are, can beat Namibia though.

Pool C
This is still interesting but I was quite right; England's previous level of competence has not lasted while France's incompetence is structural and has endured. Argentina always step up for World Cups and have built some spine. So I still think both England and Argentina will beat France, who will drop out of the Always-Makes-The-Playoffs Club. I still can't see the Pumas beating England. Tonga will come close to upsetting France again but will lose to all three higher-ranked teams, while beating USA who will not win a match.

Pool D
Despite Cheika's awful reign, I still believe that Wales is not going to beat the Wallabies at a World Cup any time soon. Both will have come off wins v Fiji and Georgia respectively. Aussie will remain undefeated. Wales will go on to beat Fiji and Uruguay. Georgia will have thrown the kitchen sink at Wales to try to prove a point, but they will have enough in the tank to see off Uruguay. Fiji and Georgia will have a great tussle for 3rd place in the third round but I think Fiji will have too much finishing power.

Quarter-Finals
Ireland will break their QF duck and beat a still declining Springboks team. I am not at all certain of this but Ireland is looking good right now.

NZ will fairly easily account for Scotland

I would love Wales to beat England, but they haven't done so since RWC2015.

Argentina will be tired from a tough pool and go down to the Wallabies rising to the occasion.

Semi-finals
All Blacks to smack the Aussie.

Ireland over England, purely on passion and pent-up lack of RWC playoffs.

Bronze final
Through the haze of pointlessness and stench of failure, we will see the Aussies fail to care enough and lose to England still smarting from being shown up.

Final
Ireland will have played two finals already. NZ to run away in the 4th quarter.

[Lizard]

So, now that qualification is complete and the November tests are done - what has changed?

Pool A: Samoa v Russia might be closer than I thought, but I'm sticking by my picks here.

Pool B: Canada is now confirmed as the team that will beat Namibia by the smallest margin.

Pool C: France have only won 1 of their last 7 tests, but that was against Argentina. Mind you, then they lost to Fiji. IDFK - let's say the Pumas are likely to travel better given all their practice at it. I'm also thinking about flipping on USA v Tonga.

Pool D: Was Wales' 9-6 win (or more aptly, failure to lose) v Aussie a sign of things to come? Actually, I think the more impressive result v SA means Wales Are now favourites to top the pool. Wales are on a 9-match winning streak, and 4-in-a-row v Aust/SA.

QFs: I'm now much more sure that Ireland can beat SA. Wales would have to fancy their chances v England now, but this is precisely the sort of match they would fuck up.

SF: I'm sticking with the results but Ireland will win with skill and execution, not passion.

Final: Hmmmm.....

[Renniks]

So, now that qualification is complete and the November tests are done - what has changed?

Pool A: Samoa v Russia might be closer than I thought, but I'm sticking by my picks here.

Pool B: Canada is now confirmed as the team that will beat Namibia by the smallest margin.

Pool C: France have only won 1 of their last 7 tests, but that was against Argentina. Mind you, then they lost to Fiji. IDFK - let's say the Pumas are likely to travel better given all their practice at it. I'm also thinking about flipping on USA v Tonga.

Pool D: Was Wales' 9-6 win (or more aptly, failure to lose) v Aussie a sign of things to come? Actually, I think the more impressive result v SA means Wales Are now favourites to top the pool. Wales are on a 9-match winning streak, and 4-in-a-row v Aust/SA.

QFs: I'm now much more sure that Ireland can beat SA. Wales would have to fancy their chances v England now, but this is precisely the sort of match they would fuck up.

SF: I'm sticking with the results but Ireland will win with skill and execution, not passion.

Final: Hmmmm.....

Pretty much in agreement with you, other than the fact that Wales will top the pool, which leads to
QF of:
Ire - SA
NZ - Scotland
Eng - Aus
Wales - Arg

Which for me would lead to a bronze final of England Wales, which I'd back Wales to win as England will care less

[Lizard]

Time for another review, post PNC and RC, mid-Bledisloe and NHWU.

Pool A: Japan is now a clearly superior side to Samoa, ranked 7 places higher. In the PNC, Japan won 3 from 3 v US, Tonga and Fiji with an aggregate score of 109-48. Against the same opposition, Samoa lost to USA and Fiji, beating only Tonga for an aggregate 38-40. This confirms my belief that Japan will come third in the pool. Russia have not played since June and have only one warm-up, against Italy this weekend so the wooden spoon continues to beckon.

Pool B: NZ v Boks is shaping up to be a very tight affair, but I think NZ will still nick it when the chips are down. Canada's 0 from 3 (v Fiji, USA, Tonga) in the PNC will give Namibia some hope, but they haven't beaten a significantly higher ranked team for ages (if ever). Namibia's official website is still showing fixtures for 2014 but apparently they've got a couple of warm ups scheduled against the Southern Kings, which probably tells you all you need to know about their RWC ambitions.

Pool C: USA are looking good. I reckon they'll take Tonga.

Pool D: no change.

[morepork]

Japan will be tough. I would predict another giant slaying this time around.

Who is our talisman when the chips are down? Retallika backed by A Savea's boundless enthusiasm. Ben from accounts also has an underrated team-building quality about him. The midfield will be crucial to meld Godhue's mullet power with Crotty's positional acumen and/or the freakish arms of ALB/SBW. Laumape is there to do the Kubota if needed, Reiko needs to be ready to fang off the shoulder of whoever is inside him. We will miss DMac's outrageous adventures in small spaces.