RugbyRebels

Swap Hemopo out for Squire, and your team is probably pretty much what gets named on Wednesday, Liz. I doubt there'll be any shocks, barring any unforseen circumstances like injury or bereavement or something like that.

I'm not sure if Hemopo had really shown enough to take the no. 6 jersey, and I suspect he and Tuipulotu would have been contesting for the same spot - and if that's the case, I'd say Paddy T has comprehensively earned a spot in the team. He hasn't made anyone go "Brodie who?" but he sure as sugar proved he can do a job in his place when needed.

I'd say Franks is in danger of missing a starting spot. His biggest asset was his scrummaging, but Laulala comprehensively demolished the Wallabies scrum - most notably in the period where they were a man down, when the All Blacks sent the Wallabies front row into orbit. Laulala has brought that, and he is far more mobile than Franks.

It's hard not to feel bad for Tim Perry. He was going well until he got injured out of the Crusaders campaign, and has only just come back for Tasman.

I'm not entirely convinced by Liam Coltman at the test level, but at the end of the day, it's a case of seeing who gets to be the new Corey Flynn, so I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. He'll either start or come off the bench against noted powerhouses Canada and Namibia, while it'll be Coles and Taylor that'll be deployed against that second-rate minnow team South Africa (what's their win-rate against Japan, again?).

Yes, I think you’re right.

Franks has 108 caps to his name but is not yet 32. I expect him to still be in the 1st XV but not to rack up huge minutes in the pool stages. I think Hansen is big on experience at RWCs and no other prop at the tournament will have played or won more RWC matches as Owen.

Squire has never consistently delivered, despite being given plenty of opportunities. Bit of a flat track bully, TBH. So I'd absolutely take Hemopo ahead of him as blindside/lock cover. Indeed, it's pretty criminal that he's barely been given a look in, while guys like Squire and Fifita are given chance after chance after chance. Though I'm resigned to the fact that Squire will go. Best I can do is hope he won't be on the bench for the serious games, let alone starting. Because if he is starting, then our pack will have f*ck all go-forward until Savea gets on the field.

I'd also have Bridge as the starting safety winger, with Ioane and Reece duelling it out in the pool matches for the strike winger spot. I'd have liked to have seen Ennor get a go there, but seems somewhat unlikely at this stage.

As for the case for experience, it certainly does have its place, but it can also easily be overstated. Sticking with a guy just because he was good four years ago leads to 1991. Guys like Franks and Smith seem to be in the over-the-hill/a-bridge-too-far category. Thank them for their service over the years, move them on, and bring in replacements (Laulala and Bridge, to be specific).

EDIT: I'd also take Tu'inukuafe ahead of Ta’avao, because I don't trust his scrummaging.

You guys always talk about your strike winger and safety winger (or picking one with FB experience) but how does it work? Genuine question as I understand the principal in a way but what if all the good ball gets to your safety winger in space or all the high kicks go to your strike winger? I know your safety wingers can still run etc. but there seems a danger that you end up with a less good finisher than might have been on the end of a key chance.

Cameo wrote:You guys always talk about your strike winger and safety winger (or picking one with FB experience) but how does it work? Genuine question as I understand the principal in a way but what if all the good ball gets to your safety winger in space or all the high kicks go to your strike winger? I know your safety wingers can still run etc. but there seems a danger that you end up with a less good finisher than might have been on the end of a key chance.

Good question.

Obviously even though each winger is to an extent a specialist, they also must be generally capable of the role i.e. competent under a high ball and have some turn of speed. So at a pinch either can deal with a situation.

The rest of the answer is in game plan and execution. They have the FB and “safety winger”’covering back but the strike winger or another strike option will also drop back on a long kick. They use wide, flat passes quickly after the kick reception to get the ball to the right player able to run the right line (at least in theory).

The system has been tested lately by a combination of rush defence and quickly taken, short kicks into space behind the line but ahead of the FB.

A more analytical mind will explain all this much better.

The All Blacks have generally often fielded a winger, usually at 14, who could play as a fullback. Jeff Wilson and Doug Howlett would be examples of this, and the latter came directly after the former hung up his boots and called it a rugby career (both played fullback for their respective domestic sides, the Highlanders and the Blues).

The "safety winger," so-called, generally doubles up as a fullback, and is increasingly relied on to be in a sweeping role at the back, while the actual fullback in the fullback's jersey, has generally been moving up closer to the action when on attack to be the second playmaker where you would usually expect a play-making 12 to be. When fielding kicks though, you'll likely see the ABs 10, 15 and the safety winger all covering the space behind the defensive line, with whichever of the 10 or 15 that gets the ball taking the playmaker role. This means that the safety winger effectively spends a lot of gametime playing as the fullback (for example, when Sevu Reece scored his try in the second half at Eden Park the other weekend, it was Bridge just by him playing support like a good fullback should, while Jordie Barrett, the nominal fullback after Beauden moved to 10, was effectively playing as a second playmaker).

Ardie is looking like a key cog in this wheel.

NZ Herald is reporting that Franks and Laumape are out.

It is also reporting that both omissions are a “shock” which is probably only half true. One worthy mid-fielder was always going to miss out.

Official announcement is in 40 minutes

Rumours about Matt Todd, too.

Here we go...

Would've much preferred Hemopo for Jacobson, Tu'inukuafe for Ta'avao, and Laumape for Williams.

Regardless, I believe it's a squad capable of winning the tournament. Now just need to see what the 1st XV is. The players for what I consider to be our best XV are in the squad, but whether they make the 1st XV remains to be seen...

Props: Joe Moody, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Atu Moli, Nepo Laulala, Angus Ta’avao-Matau
Hookers: Dane Coles, Codie Taylor, Liam Coltman
Locks: Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Patrick Tuipulotu, Scott Barrett
Loose forwards: Sam Cane, Matt Todd, Luke Jacobson, Kieran Read, Ardie Savea
Halfbacks: Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara, Brad Weber
1st5/8s: Beauden Barrett, Richie Mo’unga
Mid-fielders: Anton Lienert-Brown, Ryan Crotty, Jack Goodhue, Sonny Bill Williams
Wingers: Reiko Ioane, George Bridge, Sevu Reece
Full Back: Ben Smith
Utility: Jordie Barrett

So, Moli in - Franks out. No Squire or Hemopo - Jacobson bolts in.

Backs as predicted.

Shag says emergency 10s are J Barrett, TJ Perenara and Ryan Crotty, plus Bender.

And Brodie will probably not play unless we get to the play-offs.

Well, you were pretty close. Franks is a big call, but he was clearly coasting.

cashead wrote:Well, you were pretty close. Franks is a big call, but he was clearly coasting.

He wasn't at his best, but I thought he'd been told take it easy and rest up for the Big Dance. If this is the end of the road for him it's a shame that as a Centurion he couldn't go out on his own terms and be recognised properly. With only 5 props going though, there's a fair chance of an injury call up.

The 5 props going have 97 caps between them, compared to Franks 108, with 50 starts - Franks had 98. Take Moody out and the numbers plummet to 57 caps and 17 starts between the four of them.

This could be the defining mistake of the All Blacks' 2019 world cup.

Lizard wrote:

cashead wrote:Well, you were pretty close. Franks is a big call, but he was clearly coasting.

He wasn't at his best, but I thought he'd been told take it easy and rest up for the Big Dance. If this is the end of the road for him it's a shame that as a Centurion he couldn't go out on his own terms and be recognised properly. With only 5 props going though, there's a fair chance of an injury call up.

The 5 props going have 97 caps between them, compared to Franks 108, with 50 starts - Franks had 98. Take Moody out and the numbers plummet to 57 caps and 17 starts between the four of them.

This could be the defining mistake of the All Blacks' 2019 world cup.

Maybe, but it's also clear that Franks was increasingly becoming a relic of a previous era, as his lack of mobility and ball handling was becoming too big a liability, not to mention his apparent propensity for committing fouls. Mobility in the forwards is a thing that is now at a premium, and at the end of the day, it looks like his continued selection was a luxury that Hansen felt was not worth the cost.


Laumape is probably the only one that was genuinely unlucky to not get selected, since he did everything asked of him.

Then & Now: Changes between 2011, 2015 and 2019 squads

Only Read, SBW & Whitelock survive from 2011.

From 2015:
Only 11 of 33 players called up in 2015 have survived. (13 of the 33 used in 2011 played in 2015.)
Hookers: Mealamu out, Coltman in.

Props: Of the 7 used in 2015, only Moody remains. WTF happened to Pauliasi Manu? (Crockett, Faumuina, the Franks Cult & Woodcock all gone)

Locks: Romano out, S Barrett and Tuipulotu in.

Loose forwards: Cane & Read the only survivors. Kaino, McCaw, Messam, Vito out.

Half backs: TKB out, Weber in

1st 5/8: Carter, Slade out. Mo’unga in.

Midfield: Only SBW remains. Fekitoa, Nonu, Smith out.

Wings: No survivors. NMS, Naholo, J Savea all gone.

FB: Bender remains.

cashead wrote:

Lizard wrote:

cashead wrote:Well, you were pretty close. Franks is a big call, but he was clearly coasting.

He wasn't at his best, but I thought he'd been told take it easy and rest up for the Big Dance. If this is the end of the road for him it's a shame that as a Centurion he couldn't go out on his own terms and be recognised properly. With only 5 props going though, there's a fair chance of an injury call up.

The 5 props going have 97 caps between them, compared to Franks 108, with 50 starts - Franks had 98. Take Moody out and the numbers plummet to 57 caps and 17 starts between the four of them.

This could be the defining mistake of the All Blacks' 2019 world cup.

Maybe, but it's also clear that Franks was increasingly becoming a relic of a previous era, as his lack of mobility and ball handling was becoming too big a liability, not to mention his apparent propensity for committing fouls. Mobility in the forwards is a thing that is now at a premium, and at the end of the day, it looks like his continued selection was a luxury that Hansen felt was not worth the cost.


Laumape is probably the only one that was genuinely unlucky to not get selected, since he did everything asked of him.

You might be right about the ball-handling thing. It's amazing what the modern guys can do so perhaps (as a relic myself) I still think of that as the exception rather than the rule. When the Franks Cult first broke the scene, they were an absolute revelation in terms of fitness and conditioning for props, so it's quite sobering to think how far props have come in just a generation. (Of course being allowed to feed the ball into the 2nd row now has probably reduced a bit of the technical scrummaging skill needed for a test prop...)

Yep, Laumape is really unlucky, but 5 doesn't go into 4. This RWC is probably the end of SBW and definitely Crotty, so we will have ALB, Goodhue, Laumape as the 2 starters, one on the bench trio.

It's not just Franks' lack of mobility that's cost him, IMO. He's not been scrummaging that ferociously for some time either. Massive difference between our scrum performance in the first Bledisloe, and the second Bled anchored by Laulala. I'm sure it's no one thing that produced the turn-around, but the swap at 3 was the most obvious to the untutored eye.

Kind of a shame his career may have been ended by being out-scrummed by the Wallabies.

He will never get that test try now.

Spy wrote:It's not just Franks' lack of mobility that's cost him, IMO. He's not been scrummaging that ferociously for some time either. Massive difference between our scrum performance in the first Bledisloe, and the second Bled anchored by Laulala. I'm sure it's no one thing that produced the turn-around, but the swap at 3 was the most obvious to the untutored eye.

Kind of a shame his career may have been ended by being out-scrummed by the Wallabies.

True. Franks always delivered in the scrums when it really mattered, but not as consistently as he probably could have. He's been consistently been a part of the All Blacks for the last decade, starting 98 of his 108 tests. Barring the odd low-stakes fixture, he was pretty much been a permanent part of the starting XV, so I wonder how banged up his body might be.

I guess one could make the argument that the ABs scrum struggled without a lock, and that Laulala was helped out by having one of the heaviest All Blacks of all time giving him a shove, but by that token, Paddy T was the sacrificial lamb during Coles' yellow card period, when the Laulala-anchored scrum destroyed the same Wallabies pack as the previous week.

Cameo wrote:You guys always talk about your strike winger and safety winger (or picking one with FB experience) but how does it work? Genuine question as I understand the principal in a way but what if all the good ball gets to your safety winger in space or all the high kicks go to your strike winger? I know your safety wingers can still run etc. but there seems a danger that you end up with a less good finisher than might have been on the end of a key chance.

Good article on the All Blacks full back system here, albeit focusing on 10/15 rather than 14/15 https://www.rugbypass.com/news/why-it-d ... ll-blacks/

Luke Jacobson is out of the World Cup with a concussion, Shannon Frizell is on the next flight to Tokyo.

Team to face SA:

15. Beauden Barrett, 14. Sevu Reece, 13. Anton Lienert-Brown, 12. Ryan Crotty, 11. George Bridge, 10. Richie Mo'unga, 9. Aaron Smith, 8. Kieran Read (c), 7. Sam Cane, 6. Ardie Savea, 5. Sam Whitelock, 4. Scott Barrett, 3. Nepo Laulala, 2. Dane Coles, 1. Joe Moody.

Reserves:

16. Codie Taylor, 17. Ofa Tuungafasi, 18. Angus Ta'avao, 19. Patrick Tuipulotu, 20. Shannon Frizell, 21. TJ Perenara, 22. Sonny Bill Williams, 23. Ben Smith.

2 more sleeps.