RugbyRebels

15 Liam Williams (Kubota Spears – 85 caps)
14 Louis Rees Zammit (Gloucester Rugby – 27 caps)*
13 George North (Ospreys – 114 caps)
12 Nick Tompkins (Saracens – 28 caps)*
11 Josh Adams (Cardiff Rugby – 50 caps)
10 Dan Biggar (RC Toulonnais – 109 caps)
9 Gareth Davies (Scarlets – 69 caps);
1 Gareth Thomas (Ospreys – 22 caps)*
2 Ryan Elias (Scarlets – 34 caps)
3 Tomas Francis (Provence Rugby – 72 caps)
4 Will Rowlands (Racing 92 – 25 caps)*
5 Adam Beard (Ospreys – 47 caps)
6 Aaron Wainwright (Dragons – 39 caps)
7 Jac Morgan (Ospreys – 11 caps) captain*
8 Taulupe Faletau (Cardiff Rugby – 100 caps)

Replacements
16 Elliot Dee (Dragons – 43 caps)
17 Corey Domachowski ( Cardiff Rugby – 2 caps)*
18 Dillon Lewis (Harlequins – 51 caps)
19 Dafydd Jenkins (Exeter Chiefs – 7 caps)*
20 Tommy Reffell (Leicester Tigers – 10 caps)*
21 Tomos Williams (Cardiff Rugby – 48 caps)
22 Sam Costelow (Scarlets – 4 caps)*
23 Rio Dyer (Dragons – 9 caps)*

I don't disagree with much of that.
Lake's omission is a surprise but they want him to have a little more time to recover.
Beard is the conservative choice but not crazy (I would have started Jenkins though).
I thought Gats would pick Lydiate but Wainwright is solid.
Davies vs Williams is a coin toss.
Not sure what happens if we lose a centre . . . does Adams move in? Ideally we would have had a centre in the 23 shirt but neither of Johnny Williams and Grady looked like a safe pair of hands. Gatland put them in the squad though . . .

So now we know the pecking order.

Starting Gareth Davies over Tomos is a bit of a strange one, but I guess he's more physical and isn't that much slower.

I had a feeling Nick Tomkins was always going to start. He's the only one with experience.

I hope they've bought Elias a new pair of throwing hands

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:20 pm I hope they've bought Elias a new pair of throwing hands

He's more consistent with his throwing than Lake and more physical than Dee, I suspect they've gone for Davies over Williams purely for his abilty to pressure the oppo 9 with his physicality, that's the only advantage he has over Williams.

I think Lake will be first choice but suspect he's not quite 100%, I think Gatland has picked a team he thinks are good enough to win this match rather than the absolute strongest team that could be selected as Aus will be bigger fish to fry despite Fiji beating a useless England side.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:21 pm I don't disagree with much of that.
Lake's omission is a surprise but they want him to have a little more time to recover.
Beard is the conservative choice but not crazy (I would have started Jenkins though).
I thought Gats would pick Lydiate but Wainwright is solid.
Davies vs Williams is a coin toss.
Not sure what happens if we lose a centre . . . does Adams move in? Ideally we would have had a centre in the 23 shirt but neither of Johnny Williams and Grady looked like a safe pair of hands. Gatland put them in the squad though . . .

Listening to the ScrumV podcast the other day and one of the presenters suggested Lydiate might not suit this game due to Fijis agility. Better to have a faster backrow to keep up and compete and use Lydiate against teams that try to bully you up front.

Like you I’m surprised that there’s not another centre in the match day squad. But much of this team makes sense from a controlled game plan perspective.

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:28 pm Starting Gareth Davies over Tomos is a bit of a strange one, but I guess he's more physical and isn't that much slower.

Williams does tend to look good coming off the bench.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:21 pm
Not sure what happens if we lose a centre . . . does Adams move in? Ideally we would have had a centre in the 23 shirt but neither of Johnny Williams and Grady looked like a safe pair of hands. Gatland put them in the squad though . . .

Biggar has played centre before. I would guess it would depend how the game was going.

.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:45 pm

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:28 pm Starting Gareth Davies over Tomos is a bit of a strange one, but I guess he's more physical and isn't that much slower.

Williams does tend to look good coming off the bench.

That seems to be the thinking.
Not much in it either way.

.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:21 pm
Beard is the conservative choice but not crazy (I would have started Jenkins though).

I thought Gatland would always play Beard in this game.
I agree about Jenkins, but there is no point having Beard in the squad except to disrupt Fijian and Australian mauls.
He certainly does not improve line outs (Rowlands does that).

.

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:29 pm I had a feeling Nick Tomkins was always going to start. He's the only one with experience.

He is a strange case. He does not have any dramatic strong point. His stats are not all that good. He does in some strange way seem to solidify the midfield, which is odd because when he misses tackles it is sometime spectacular.

.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:44 pm Listening to the ScrumV podcast the other day and one of the presenters suggested Lydiate might not suit this game due to Fijis agility. Better to have a faster backrow to keep up and compete and use Lydiate against teams that try to bully you up front.

I thought this game might suit Lydiate. Maybe the withdrawal of Caleb Muntz played a role in Gatland's thinking. Wainwright has been playing very well though and could take on 8 if Faletau was subbed off after part of the game.

.

.
I am not sure I am totally convinced with Dillon Lewis on the bench.....
.

Graigwen wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:34 pm

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:29 pm I had a feeling Nick Tomkins was always going to start. He's the only one with experience.

He is a strange case. He does not have any dramatic strong point. His stats are not all that good. He does in some strange way seem to solidify the midfield, which is odd because when he misses tackles it is sometime spectacular.

.

He seems to be a good communicator which may explain part of that. As an international centre I like his positivity but I think we have better options long term. But he is the right person for this game as he and North have played together a reasonable amount and the other options don’t seem to be as solid as Tompkins currently is, although they will improve with training and game time.

Graigwen wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:46 pm .
I am not sure I am totally convinced with Dillon Lewis on the bench.....
.

Ditto. With Reffell on the bench perhaps we’re hoping to secure turnovers later on?

Graigwen wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:45 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:44 pm Listening to the ScrumV podcast the other day and one of the presenters suggested Lydiate might not suit this game due to Fijis agility. Better to have a faster backrow to keep up and compete and use Lydiate against teams that try to bully you up front.

I thought this game might suit Lydiate. Maybe the withdrawal of Caleb Muntz played a role in Gatland's thinking. Wainwright has been playing very well though and could take on 8 if Faletau was subbed off after part of the game.

.

He’s taking a huge risk on Faletau.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 6:36 pm

Graigwen wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:45 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 3:44 pm Listening to the ScrumV podcast the other day and one of the presenters suggested Lydiate might not suit this game due to Fijis agility. Better to have a faster backrow to keep up and compete and use Lydiate against teams that try to bully you up front.

I thought this game might suit Lydiate. Maybe the withdrawal of Caleb Muntz played a role in Gatland's thinking. Wainwright has been playing very well though and could take on 8 if Faletau was subbed off after part of the game.

.

He’s taking a huge risk on Faletau.

I hope not. He seems to be able bounce back after injury with apparent ease.

I think it is a risk, but a considered risk. Without Faletau were are not great at dealing with restarts.

I don't believe Faletau will be on that pitch for 80 minutes. It is super useful having someone like Wainwright around.

.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 6:34 pm

Graigwen wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 4:34 pm

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Thu Sep 07, 2023 2:29 pm I had a feeling Nick Tomkins was always going to start. He's the only one with experience.

He is a strange case. He does not have any dramatic strong point. His stats are not all that good. He does in some strange way seem to solidify the midfield, which is odd because when he misses tackles it is sometime spectacular.

.

He seems to be a good communicator which may explain part of that. As an international centre I like his positivity but I think we have better options long term. But he is the right person for this game as he and North have played together a reasonable amount and the other options don’t seem to be as solid as Tompkins currently is, although they will improve with training and game time.

I'd of picked Johnny Williams purely for his defensive abilities with the two big Fijian centres being very physical, other than that I think the selection is ok..

Numbers wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 12:09 pm

I'd of picked Johnny Williams purely for his defensive abilities with the two big Fijian centres being very physical, other than that I think the selection is ok..

I also though Jonny Williams might be the right choice for this game. Overall I am fairly happy with the team.....as long as Francis does not get injured near the start.

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Before the South Africa match I had Johnny pencilled in as our first choice 12. That match made it look like he needs more time before we can rely on him for a must-win game. Given who we have in the squad that makes Tompkins the only choice for me.

You realise the England result means we're going to be dogshit, don't you?

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Sat Sep 09, 2023 10:24 pm You realise the England result means we're going to be dogshit, don't you?

Dunno. I think it means I'm hallucinating. Afraid to draw any other conclusions.