Snap General Election called

[Zhivago]

The latest Electoral Calculus prediction has the LibDems on 71 seats and the Tories on 65.
Oh please let this come true . . .

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _home.html

Yes! That would make for a nice change.

[Which Tyler]

The latest Electoral Calculus prediction has the LibDems on 71 seats and the Tories on 65.
Oh please let this come true . . .

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _home.html

Please, please, please, please, please

[Sandydragon]

We simply must not let Ukraine lose. The consequences really are dire. I don't understand people who don't get this. People like Puja who worse still, want to scrimp on our defence budget and give up our nuclear power status.

We have a saying in the Netherlands. Goedkoop is duurkoop. It means cheap is expensive. If we spend less now, it'll just be more costly in the longer term.

I was going to copy your post and just paste in "climate emergency" in all the apposite places, but it felt cheap and I think my point can be made without it. Cheap is expensive in-fucking-deed, yet when it comes to budgets and spending, it's always "Can we afford to spend on Net Zero?" not, "What use is having our own individual nuclear penis to wave around if the world is on fire?"

Puja

For the record, climate change policies are also necessary. I know the budget is finite, but I don't think it is so finite that we can only increase spending on one if we cut the other.

The climate change threat is probably greater, but more distant in the future. The geopolitical threats are rather more urgent though.

Noting events in the US and France, this is definitely not the time for the UK to send any message that it doesn’t stand for my behind nato and will contribute properly to collective defence. Putins odds of winning a conventional war increase if he can peel away key alliance members.


If Trump wins and gives Putin a win in Ukraine then he will be back. Or someone like him will and only the presentation of a strong united alliance will prevent him from nibbling away at the edges of nato

[Sandydragon]

On an entirely different note, it looks like the Tories have finally decided to take on Farage properly. Sunak visible, and rightly, angry at the racial slur thrown his way by a reform candidate. The Telegraph front page calling Farage a Putin appeaser. The Times is starting to examine his younger days and some of Farages questionable comments.

Could it be that the penny has finally dropped that Farage is beyond the pale and shouldn’t be pandered to? If so then hopefully sensible voices dominate the future of the Conservative Party post election.

[Banquo]

The latest Electoral Calculus prediction has the LibDems on 71 seats and the Tories on 65.
Oh please let this come true . . .

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _home.html

Please, please, please, please, please

might even get tories supporting proportional representation....not that labour would then want that. When they push through 16 year olds getting the vote, they are absolutel nailed on for years.

[Son of Mathonwy]

The latest Electoral Calculus prediction has the LibDems on 71 seats and the Tories on 65.
Oh please let this come true . . .

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _home.html

Please, please, please, please, please

might even get tories supporting proportional representation....not that labour would then want that. When they push through 16 year olds getting the vote, they are absolutel nailed on for years.

Nailed on for five years, no more than that. No more than Boris was nailed on after his 'landslide' in 2019.

[Banquo]

Please, please, please, please, please

might even get tories supporting proportional representation....not that labour would then want that. When they push through 16 year olds getting the vote, they are absolutel nailed on for years.

Nailed on for five years, no more than that. No more than Boris was nailed on after his 'landslide' in 2019.

putting the 16 year old vote with not being boris/gbd and covid and the `no more than that` becomes `a lot different to`...

[Son of Mathonwy]

might even get tories supporting proportional representation....not that labour would then want that. When they push through 16 year olds getting the vote, they are absolutel nailed on for years.

Nailed on for five years, no more than that. No more than Boris was nailed on after his 'landslide' in 2019.

putting the 16 year old vote with not being boris/gbd and covid and the `no more than that` becomes `a lot different to`...

Boris did his best to gerrymander things by introducing voter ID. Still wasn't enough. Votes for 16-17 won't be enough either if Labour don't make things better over the next 5 years.

[Sandydragon]

The latest Electoral Calculus prediction has the LibDems on 71 seats and the Tories on 65.
Oh please let this come true . . .

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _home.html

Please, please, please, please, please

might even get tories supporting proportional representation....not that labour would then want that. When they push through 16 year olds getting the vote, they are absolutel nailed on for years.

Some polls are suggesting that the younger vote isn’t as strong for Labour as it used to be. I suspect the
Majority are still there, if they bother to vote at all, but greens will hoover up a fair bit and reform have a number of younger voters. The young vote will definitely benefit Labour for 5-10 years but it’s possible it might not continue like that indefinitely.

[Banquo]

Nailed on for five years, no more than that. No more than Boris was nailed on after his 'landslide' in 2019.

putting the 16 year old vote with not being boris/gbd and covid and the `no more than that` becomes `a lot different to`...

Boris did his best to gerrymander things by introducing voter ID. Still wasn't enough. Votes for 16-17 won't be enough either if Labour don't make things better over the next 5 years.

....and where is the challenge coming from even if you cant see the big difference between the scenarios? Plus its going to be better even if Labour do as little as they`ve committed to- external events aside.

[Banquo]

Please, please, please, please, please

might even get tories supporting proportional representation....not that labour would then want that. When they push through 16 year olds getting the vote, they are absolutel nailed on for years.

Some polls are suggesting that the younger vote isn’t as strong for Labour as it used to be. I suspect the
Majority are still there, if they bother to vote at all, but greens will hoover up a fair bit and reform have a number of younger voters. The young vote will definitely benefit Labour for 5-10 years but it’s possible it might not continue like that indefinitely.

even 10 years is a loong time....cant see where i suggested `indefiinitely`.

[Sandydragon]

putting the 16 year old vote with not being boris/gbd and covid and the `no more than that` becomes `a lot different to`...

Boris did his best to gerrymander things by introducing voter ID. Still wasn't enough. Votes for 16-17 won't be enough either if Labour don't make things better over the next 5 years.

....and where is the challenge coming from even if you cant see the big difference between the scenarios? Plus its going to be better even if Labour do as little as they`ve committed to- external events aside.

Competent government not completely absorbed on one issue might be a breath of fresh air for the voters

[Sandydragon]

might even get tories supporting proportional representation....not that labour would then want that. When they push through 16 year olds getting the vote, they are absolutel nailed on for years.

Some polls are suggesting that the younger vote isn’t as strong for Labour as it used to be. I suspect the
Majority are still there, if they bother to vote at all, but greens will hoover up a fair bit and reform have a number of younger voters. The young vote will definitely benefit Labour for 5-10 years but it’s possible it might not continue like that indefinitely.

even 10 years is a loong time....cant see where i suggested `indefiinitely`.

Years isn’t exactly precise.

[Sandydragon]

For what it's worth I wouldn't want the Greens setting our defence policy*, although I'd like them to set everything else.

But since they're so far, far, far removed from the chance of getting into even double figures in parliament I'm comfortable with arguing to increase that number.

* on balance I'd go Lib Dem on defence. Tories and Labour are too war-mongery and happy to support states committing war crimes.

They are the most sensible party. I'm either for them or Plaid.

Our local liberal candidate seems a decent option. But the best chance of removing the Conservative MP (who isn’t appalling by any means but this government needs to be gotten rid of) is to vote tactically for Labour. There’s a bit conservative majority here so protest votes will just be a wasted opportunity.

[Sandydragon]

Oh, and it gets so much worse: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... in-clacton

Maybe Clacton wasn't winnable once Farage got involved, but on the other hand, maybe it could've been! Have the frothing racist vote split between Reform and the Tories and campaign on the "Dear gods, do you really want Farage representing you?!?!" ticket and there's a route to victory there. Even if there isn't, at least they'd've *tried* to stop the literal worst person from winning. I suspect they have looked at it without ethics or morals being involved, decided that they're interested in trying to knock the Tories' MPs as low as possible, and a Reform win achieves that just as well as a Labour one does.

Puja

For fucks sake.

Honestly I am trying not to be so negative about what Labour are offering, but I’m struggling to read this as pragmatic rather than simply pathetic.

This is insane. Taking the candidate away from the seat he's fighting for??? Being angry with him for running a successful social media campaign??? Jesus Christ. I mean this election is falling into their lap but if they come up against anyone good at politics next time they won't stand a chance.

The Labour leadership may have taken the view that their odds in that constituency were a bit long do better to quietly give the Conservative candidate, who seems fairly normal, be the lightning rod for the anti Farage vote.

That’s the only positive reason that springs to mind.

[Sandydragon]

Without the US we won’t have the ammunition to last that long. And you seem to think that all NATO armies are equally competent, that’s far from the truth.

The Baltic states aren’t defensible in the long term. I doubt very much that we would poor in troops to defend them, there isn’t the space to trade for time to soak up Russias numerical advantage. For them we are hoping a token presence and the threat of nukes will suffice.

And of course reducing defence spending will encourage Putin to try his arm still further. Sending the signal that if you don’t hurt us we won’t hurt you, as we the Green spokesman, send the message that we won’t honour our nato commitments when severely pressed.


What we need is a united approach and strong commitment to collective defence.

We simply must not let Ukraine lose. The consequences really are dire. I don't understand people who don't get this. People like Puja who worse still, want to scrimp on our defence budget and give up our nuclear power status.

We have a saying in the Netherlands. Goedkoop is duurkoop. It means cheap is expensive. If we spend less now, it'll just be more costly in the longer term.

I was going to copy your post and just paste in "climate emergency" in all the apposite places, but it felt cheap and I think my point can be made without it. Cheap is expensive in-fucking-deed, yet when it comes to budgets and spending, it's always "Can we afford to spend on Net Zero?" not, "What use is having our own individual nuclear penis to wave around if the world is on fire?"

Puja

The independent nuclear deterrent works best when it’s not the only option. I’m quite glad our leaders aren’t making jingoistic threats about using nukes.

Thankfully with only 5% of the vote the implications of the greens setting defence policy won’t be something to worry about.

[Banquo]

Some polls are suggesting that the younger vote isn’t as strong for Labour as it used to be. I suspect the
Majority are still there, if they bother to vote at all, but greens will hoover up a fair bit and reform have a number of younger voters. The young vote will definitely benefit Labour for 5-10 years but it’s possible it might not continue like that indefinitely.

even 10 years is a loong time....cant see where i suggested `indefiinitely`.

Years isn’t exactly precise.

neither is indefinitely apologies for a lack of precision.

[Zhivago]

Please, please, please, please, please

might even get tories supporting proportional representation....not that labour would then want that. When they push through 16 year olds getting the vote, they are absolutel nailed on for years.

Some polls are suggesting that the younger vote isn’t as strong for Labour as it used to be. I suspect the
Majority are still there, if they bother to vote at all, but greens will hoover up a fair bit and reform have a number of younger voters. The young vote will definitely benefit Labour for 5-10 years but it’s possible it might not continue like that indefinitely.

Gen Z have been corrupted by the likes of Jordan Petersen and Joe Rogan. Millenials are the last left wing youth.

[Sandydragon]

might even get tories supporting proportional representation....not that labour would then want that. When they push through 16 year olds getting the vote, they are absolutel nailed on for years.

Some polls are suggesting that the younger vote isn’t as strong for Labour as it used to be. I suspect the
Majority are still there, if they bother to vote at all, but greens will hoover up a fair bit and reform have a number of younger voters. The young vote will definitely benefit Labour for 5-10 years but it’s possible it might not continue like that indefinitely.

Gen Z have been corrupted by the likes of Jordan Petersen and Joe Rogan. Millenials are the last left wing youth.

There’s definitely something in there. Right wing propaganda has caught up with the left

[Son of Mathonwy]

putting the 16 year old vote with not being boris/gbd and covid and the `no more than that` becomes `a lot different to`...

Boris did his best to gerrymander things by introducing voter ID. Still wasn't enough. Votes for 16-17 won't be enough either if Labour don't make things better over the next 5 years.

....and where is the challenge coming from even if you cant see the big difference between the scenarios? Plus its going to be better even if Labour do as little as they`ve committed to- external events aside.

Challenge to Labour? It doesn't seem possible right now but the main selling point for Labour is 'change' - nothing intrinsic to Labour and certainly nothing about the Labour leadership. If they don't deliver 'change' their support might prove very fickle. And if the Tories reinvent themselves either by a new moderate, fresh face or more likely bring Farage into the fold (and crucially stop him from splitting the right vote) the whole situation could reverse (by 2029). Also, Starmerism is far less attractive to the youth vote than Corbynism. Support for genocide is also unpopular with the young.

I agree a Labour government is likely to do better than the continuation of this Tory one (which plans to cut spending even more to pay for the NI cut), but austerity will continue. So by 'better' I would mean 'better than the alternative' not 'getting better over time'.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Some polls are suggesting that the younger vote isn’t as strong for Labour as it used to be. I suspect the
Majority are still there, if they bother to vote at all, but greens will hoover up a fair bit and reform have a number of younger voters. The young vote will definitely benefit Labour for 5-10 years but it’s possible it might not continue like that indefinitely.

Gen Z have been corrupted by the likes of Jordan Petersen and Joe Rogan. Millenials are the last left wing youth.

There’s definitely something in there. Right wing propaganda has caught up with the left

There is always the fear than one good TikTok meme will double Reform's vote.

[Sandydragon]

Gen Z have been corrupted by the likes of Jordan Petersen and Joe Rogan. Millenials are the last left wing youth.

There’s definitely something in there. Right wing propaganda has caught up with the left

There is always the fear than one good TikTok meme will double Reform's vote.

At the moment, the use of social media by reform candidates is losing them votes. Farage can hide behind a veneer of comic English stereotype and everyone’s best mate. Many of his colleagues let the mask slip.

[Son of Mathonwy]

There’s definitely something in there. Right wing propaganda has caught up with the left

There is always the fear than one good TikTok meme will double Reform's vote.

At the moment, the use of social media by reform candidates is losing them votes. Farage can hide behind a veneer of comic English stereotype and everyone’s best mate. Many of his colleagues let the mask slip.

The undercover work by C4 news was solid gold.

[Banquo]

Boris did his best to gerrymander things by introducing voter ID. Still wasn't enough. Votes for 16-17 won't be enough either if Labour don't make things better over the next 5 years.

....and where is the challenge coming from even if you cant see the big difference between the scenarios? Plus its going to be better even if Labour do as little as they`ve committed to- external events aside.

Challenge to Labour? It doesn't seem possible right now but the main selling point for Labour is 'change' - nothing intrinsic to Labour and certainly nothing about the Labour leadership. If they don't deliver 'change' their support might prove very fickle. And if the Tories reinvent themselves either by a new moderate, fresh face or more likely bring Farage into the fold (and crucially stop him from splitting the right vote) the whole situation could reverse (by 2029). Also, Starmerism is far less attractive to the youth vote than Corbynism. Support for genocide is also unpopular with the young.

I agree a Labour government is likely to do better than the continuation of this Tory one (which plans to cut spending even more to pay for the NI cut), but austerity will continue. So by 'better' I would mean 'better than the alternative' not 'getting better over time'.

I guess Labours change message is only ‘change from the tories’ as they aren’t offering any transformational change without reviews. So it’s possible that the demand for real change will become loud- but I think they’ll get a lot of time by dint of who else even if they don’t do much.

[Sandydragon]

....and where is the challenge coming from even if you cant see the big difference between the scenarios? Plus its going to be better even if Labour do as little as they`ve committed to- external events aside.

Challenge to Labour? It doesn't seem possible right now but the main selling point for Labour is 'change' - nothing intrinsic to Labour and certainly nothing about the Labour leadership. If they don't deliver 'change' their support might prove very fickle. And if the Tories reinvent themselves either by a new moderate, fresh face or more likely bring Farage into the fold (and crucially stop him from splitting the right vote) the whole situation could reverse (by 2029). Also, Starmerism is far less attractive to the youth vote than Corbynism. Support for genocide is also unpopular with the young.

I agree a Labour government is likely to do better than the continuation of this Tory one (which plans to cut spending even more to pay for the NI cut), but austerity will continue. So by 'better' I would mean 'better than the alternative' not 'getting better over time'.

I guess Labours change message is only ‘change from the tories’ as they aren’t offering any transformational change without reviews. So it’s possible that the demand for real change will become loud- but I think they’ll get a lot of time by dint of who else even if they don’t do much.

I think this will be one of the shortest honeymoons ever.

It looks like Starmer has appreciated that hence the decision to pack the Lords to avoid hold ups there